Sunday, September 7, 2008

Apple Inc. (AAPL) chart analysis

As you know, I am out of Apple Inc. (AAPL) , see past posts.
Was friday's reversal a potential buy signal ?
Is the market oversold ? Will the government intervention in Fannie and Freddie lift the market on monday ?
One clear thing is that we are BELOW the long term moving average.
Some of you are still bullish on Apple Inc. (AAPL) and refuse to sell their shares ; look, I cannot blame you, since I am also bullish on Apple Inc. (AAPL) fundamentally !!!
I follow my trading plan ; right now, my plan / technique tells me to get out ..... and if we break below 157.5 we shall go and re test the recent lows of 152.5 (or lower).
Now, what will turn me bullish ? A close above the LT moving average on high volume !!!

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hi aaple seems to be oversold, with Nok problems, rimm as well regarding growth, can aaple still earn and grow along with pe and stock price ?

Moise Levi said...

You are right that the PE is high .... but so is the demand for Iphones ; latest internet traffic stats here in Western Europe report a huge rise due to surfing on Iphones !!!

jj2828 said...

Hi, I've been following your post for some times and appreciate all your insight and comments.

I'm a long term APPL holder, have it since 2005, been averaging up over the years. Even held the stock thru their downturn earlier this year.

My strats has been buy on the dip and write call. Howerver I did some unthinkable pass couple of week. I sold my other holding and instead of writing call, I bought call. And ofcourse all hell broke lose last week.

Now I'm in a situation where I don't want to be in. I now have load of 185, 180, 170 sept call and still have my Appl share. (very dicipline never traded on emotions ever before as long as I can remember, other than this time, way over bullish on Apple the iphone number are just way too good and the market show it's nasty side)

185,180 Im sure it's a wipe, but still have little time value in it. My question is, what would you do in my situation ? Please explain your reasoning. Thanks.

Moise Levi said...

Hi jj2828

First, trust me it happens to experienced traders all the time.
Why ? our minds tends to play tricks with us.

If I was in your shoes, I would do the following ;

1) Fannie and Freddie 's good news might lift this market up and give investors the boost they needed to get back and invest.
2) How long will that boost last ? no one knows .... but it may give you a chance to reduce your loss.

Of course, that may be the (buy)trigger I was looking for in my ABC pattern since the Dow and the S&P did not reach their lows (this forming higher lows)

My only worry for you right now is that " you have little time value".
I hope this market rising up on this good news will help.

Good luck :)