Monday, November 2, 2009

SP 500 probable scenario

SP 500 chart with probable scenario ;
1) "A" level (see ABC pattern) confirms resistance level from that down trend line.
2) We where all "expecting" a pull back. Its finally taking place ? We really need a firm "B" level.
3) Green arrow = high probable scenario
4) Red arrow = low probability

6 comments:

Celal Birader said...

i think A-B-C probably works for stocks but is too simplistic for indices like the S&P500. however, time will tell us if your are right.

David said...

Which moving average are you showing on your chart?

Moise Levi said...

@ Celal ; simple works fine :)

@ David ; 40 weeks exp MA

Yan said...

Hi Moise, can you explain why the red arrow is low probability compared to the green arrow?

One more quick Q, Since 08 till now, we are in a secular bear market. the march lows is more like a V bottom, and i personally think that this is not a true bottom. Can you give me your precious opinion on my view?

Moise Levi said...

@ Yan ; you have a good point (V bottom) ; my gut feelings tell me that the red arrow has a low probability since global conditions have really improved. Demand is up, sales are up, consumers are buying again .... real estate prices in Asia are rising again .... only thing missing ? Unemployement ..... it will improve ....

SB said...

Improved, Not In the UK (Bank centre of the world)

Lloyds and Royal Bank of scotland are getting our Tax pounds yet again with more bailouts!

http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/Business/RBS-Announcement-On-Break-Up-Of-Royal-Bank-Of-Scotland-And-Lloyds-Bank/Article/200911115430644?lpos=Business_Carousel_Region_1&lid=ARTICLE_15430644_RBS%3A_Announcement_On_Break-Up_Of_Royal_Bank_Of_Scotland_And_Lloyds_Bank

If this market doesn't retest 666 I will be very surprised.