Real Estate Expert Makes Predictions for Evolving Industry

Real Estate Expert Makes Predictions for Evolving Industry: "The real estate industry may be in dire straits, but Jeremiah Thompson, a former real estate broker and owner of Real Estate Client Referrals (http://www.realestateclientreferrals.com/), views the housing crisis in a different light. To this industry expert, the low transaction numbers represent a fresh opportunity for those who work within the industry to call for much-needed change. And Thompson believes that such a real-estate revolution could shift the power and control from agents to buyers and sellers instead. That's because people are becoming aware and wary of the wheeling and dealing of brokers, and are waking up to the idea that solutions exist, he says.

'Agents have had a monopoly on buyers for the past 20 years,' Thompson says. 'They have exclusive access to the local multiple listing services (MLS), and this allows them to control access to the majority of home buyers. Since MLS organizations are private and not governed by state or federal laws, it's been up to each MLS organization to establish its own rules for membership, access and sharing of information. In essence, your local MLS could decide to let homeowners list homes directly, bypassing an agent. They could also decide to let buyers have direct access to homeowners with listings.'"

Apple Inc. (AAPL) chart analysis

This is a weekly chart of Apple Inc. (AAPL) ;
1) Stuck in a clear tight channel
2) Market sell off was expected ; how long will it last ? until after the G20 meeting ?
3) A weekly close below 100$ should be your main "warning signal"
4) A weekly close above 110$ (on increased volume) is what we need
Conclusion ; conditions are improving, but we need to see at least one strong GAP up on huge volume ..... that can only come from some real good news from Apple Inc. (AAPL)

PowerShares DB Crude Oil Dble Long ETN (DXO)

Quick look at the PowerShares DB Crude Oil Dble Long ETN (DXO) ;
1) Focus on that moving average (support level)
2) Will that support hold ? sell off not done on high (or increased) volume
Waiting for an extreme sell off to enter step by step
If crude goes below 45$ , forget this scenario

Direxion Financial Bull 3X Shares (FAS)

Quick analysis of the Direxion Financial Bull 3X Shares (FAS) ;
1) If you have a "heart" problem, avoid this ETN :) , very volatile
2) Moving average you see is the simple 50 days
3) Gap down on increased volume should send it a little lower (hope so)
I plan to buy FAS on an extreme oversold, going to enter step by step

Light crude oil chart analysis

Light crude oil chart analysis ;
1) 50 to 55 is now our clear resistance channel
2) A close below that red trendline will send us down to test the 45 levels
3) Was that another fake move ?
Conclusion ; gut feeling tells me that conditions are improving (oil is still facing higher lows pattern since mid Feb.
Was NOT expecting a "V" shape recovery
Hope for a "up the stair" pattern
Warning ; a close below 45 will confirm a bearish reversal

Case study ; Gold chart weekly

Quick case study of the Gold chart weekly ;
1) Main trend is broken ; why ? see those highest highs ? the first one (2008) is still higher than the high of 2009. So do not attempt to draw another trendline unless Gold gets back above the high of 2008 !!!!
2) Current trend is "too steep"
3) Pay attention to that "blue" channel : 880 to 960
Conclusion ; I would not attempt to trade the DB Gold Double Short ETF (DZZ) yet !
The Gold Miners ETF (GDX) has a better looking chart ; if you did buy it, SELL !!!! step back and wait for a clear break out above or below that blue channel

Renewable Energy World Conference & Expo Exceeded Growth and Attendance Expectations; Continued Strong Growth in 2010 is Expected

Renewable Energy World Conference & Expo Exceeded Growth and Attendance Expectations; Continued Strong Growth in 2010 is Expected: "More than 4,000 renewable energy professionals from 75 different countries gathered in Las Vegas, Nevada for the sixth annual Renewable Energy World North America conference and expo March 10-12. With more than 225 companies exhibiting, both the exhibit and attendance numbers reflected significant increases over a year ago. Next year's numbers are again expected to increase. A total of over 5,000 attendees and 300 exhibitors are expected at the Renewable Energy World North America conference and expo in Austin, Texas, February 23-25, 2010."

The Bank of New York Mellon Launches Euro-Pacific Select ADR Index

The Bank of New York Mellon Launches Euro-Pacific Select ADR Index: "The Bank of New York Mellon (NYSE:BK) , the global leader in asset management and securities servicing, has announced the launch of the new Euro-Pacific Select ADR Index, the first 'equal-weighted' American depositary receipts (ADR) index comprising a select group of ADRs from developed countries in Europe and Asia-Pacific, including Australia, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hong Kong, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and United Kingdom."

The market will open lower this morning, might as well enjoy this soccer game and admire Lionel Messi

Alstom and Dow Collaborate to Combat Climate Change

Alstom and Dow Collaborate to Combat Climate Change: "Alstom, a world leader in power generation, and The Dow Chemical Company (NYSE:DOW) , a global gas treating industry leader, announce the design and construction of a pilot plant to capture carbon dioxide (CO2) from the flue gas of a coal-fired boiler at the Dow-owned facility in South Charleston, West Virginia, USA.

Alstom will design, construct and operate the pilot plant, which is expected to capture approximately 1,800 tons per year of CO2 from flue gas using Alstom's and Dow's advanced amine technology. Dow will provide the site and utilities, as well as the chemicals and its amine technology expertise for this project. The pilot plant is expected to be operational by 3Q 09."

NEWSWEEK Cover: Obama Is Wrong

NEWSWEEK Cover: Obama Is Wrong: "There is little doubt that Krugman has become the voice of the loyal opposition, taking on the president from the left. In his twice-a-week column and his blog, Conscience of a Liberal, Krugman criticizes the Obamaites for trying to prop up a flawed financial system and he portrays Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner and other top officials as tools of Wall Street. The day Geithner announced the details of the administration's bank-rescue plan, Krugman described his 'despair' that Obama 'has apparently settled on a financial plan that, in essence, assumes that banks are fundamentally sound and that bankers know what they're doing.' The administration, naturally does not share Krugman's view, but the Obama White House is also careful not to provoke his wrath any more than necessary."

Baltic Dry Index reversal ?

The Baltic Dry Index was pretty good at spotting the bullish market reversal ; now what ?
The 2000 level is our next "new resistance"
Is this sell signal (5 days exp MA below the 50 days exp MA) a real bearish signal ?
Probably not ; call this a logical pull back, will probably form a channel before breaking out above the 2000 levels in about 2 months.

The African stock market

I painted this several years ago ; it was actually something I was hoping to see ....
I was born and raised in Kinshasa, Congo
Family was in the chemical/commodity business, so I grew up following coffee, copper prices.
Still hope to see the creation of such exchange :)

Light crude oil chart analysis

Case study du jour ; Light crude oil chart analysis
1) Settings used ; 20 & 100 days simple moving average
2) Traders use the 20 days MA, long term investors focus on the 100 days MA
3) We do have a moving average "crossover"
4) We do have a channel break out (see yellow level)
5) Traders will use the 20 SMA as their stop loss
6) You could also use the channel (yellow) as your stop
Gut feeling now (yes, you need to use your gut feeling/intuition based on the "facts")
We will face a small pull back, creating a probable "new channel" higher than the previous channel.
Patience ; focus on these two (please be patient)
PowerShares DB Crude Oil Dble Long ETN (DXO)
United States Oil Fund ETF (USO)

Shangai Stock Exchange chart update

Quick update of the Shangai Stock Exchange ;
1) It did signal a bullish global reversal (ahead of most markets)
2) Higher lows pattern intact
3) In the ABC pattern ; we still do not have "C" right above "A"
Conclusion ? Our safe entry signal is right above 2400
Gut feeling ? we shall first see a channel pattern (slight pull back), then expecting a bullish break out.

Stock trades du jour

The following stocks have the "condition" that makes me focus on them

1) Gap with increased volume

2) Good or great fundamental news event

Best Buy Co Inc ( BBY ) ; buy ! use 35$ as your stop

Conagra Foods Inc ( CAG ) ; buy ! use $15 as your stop

RED HAT ( RHT ) ; allow a pull back before you enter

Raytheon Co ( RTN ) ; resistance @ 50 days exp MA

Sony Corp Adr ( SNE ) ; needs to close above $24

Stmicroelectronics N.V. ( STM ) ; right above 50 days exp MA

RIO Tintoplc Ads ( RTP ) ; great looking pattern !

Aluminum China ( ACH ) ; buy, use $15.80 as your stop loss

China Petro & Chem Corp ( SNP ) ; buy ! use $62 as your stop

Case study, Proshares Ultra QQQ Fund ETF (QLD)

Lets take a look at the Proshares Ultra QQQ Fund ETF (QLD)
1) It seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, which correspond to twice the daily performance of the NASDAQ 100 Index.
2) Resistance channel is quite clear ; $30 level
3) The other main resistance is the 100 days exp moving average
If you plan to buy and hold ; I suggest you first wait for a break out above $30, then allow a pull back before buying.
Stop loss ? $30

S&P 500 Stock Buybacks Retreat 66% in Fourth Quarter; Off 42% in 2008

S&P 500 Stock Buybacks Retreat 66% in Fourth Quarter; Off 42% in 2008: "Standard & Poor's, the world's leading index provider, announced today that preliminary results show S&P 500 issues spending $48.1 billion in stock repurchases during the fourth quarter of 2008, representing a 66.0% decline over the $141.7 billion spent during the fourth quarter of 2007. For 2008, S&P 500 buybacks reached $339.6 billion - a 42.3% drop from the record setting $589.1 billion spent during 2007."

'ADRs for Listed Asian and Chinese Companies: First Road to the U.S. Equity Markets'

'ADRs for Listed Asian and Chinese Companies: First Road to the U.S. Equity Markets': "What do S-Oil Corporation, Lenovo Group Limited, and Beijing Beida Jade Bird Universal Sci-Tech Company Limited, diverse listed Asian and Chinese companies in very different businesses, have in common? All of these companies have created sponsored Level I American Depositary Receipt, 'ADR', programs to facilitate the trading of their listed shares in the United States. Continuing a trend begun in the late 1980s, many new Depositary Receipt, 'DR', programs were created by Asian and Chinese issuers in the past few years. Attached to this article is a list of some ADR programs the author worked on."

On my radar screen

Citigroup Inc ( C ) ; 50 days exp moving average = perfect resistance level

CB Richard Ellis ( CBG ) ; great pattern !!! Gap up with huge volume = great bullish reversal !!!

American Intl Group ( AIG ) ; my entry point is right above 1$.50

General Electric ( GE ) ; long term buy signal = right above 11.85$

http://twitter.com/moiselevi

Online Consumer Behavior Shifts in a Challenging Economic Climate

Online Consumer Behavior Shifts in a Challenging Economic Climate: "Recession drives consumers online

Survey data showed that online consumers spent more time online and used the Internet to research their purchases. One in four online consumers revealed that the recession caused them to spend more time online. Ninety-four percent of online consumers used the Internet to compare prices, 67 percent searched for coupons, and 52 percent visited social networks. Ninety-one percent of survey respondents indicated that they felt more confident about their product purchases after researching online, while another 37 percent purchased products over the Internet to help them suppress impulse buying.

Consumers take advantage of aggressive sales"

Google Inc. (GOOG) next move ?

The good news regarding Google Inc. (GOOG) ?
Chart pattern looks better than most stock out there ; meaning ? it should be on your watch list if you plan to invest in tech related stocks.
Yahoo inc. (YHOO) looks good as well (needs to remain above $13)
Back to Google Inc. (GOOG) ;
Next move is a probable channel pattern
Cut positions below $330
Increase positions above $360
PS : we need a volume break out

Microsoft Corp ( MSFT ) chart analysis

Quick look at Microsoft Corp ( MSFT ) ;
1) The 50 days SMA seems to be a reliable "trend detector"
2) See that red trend line ? a close below is bearish !
3) Safe entry level ? a close above $19 on increased volume

Euro Dollar chart analysis

The Euro Dollar is now stuck in a clear tight channel ;
1) Easier to trade a tight break out
2) Are we facing "another parabolic rise ?"
3) Main picture pattern ? while we are seing technical bounces up in the Euro, the main long term pattern "still" favours the $USD Dollar !!!
Why ? Pay attention to lower highs since July 2008.
Next lower high ? Mid Sept 2008
Next lower high ? Dec 2008
Next lower high ? Jan 2009
If we close the month above 1.3800 , I will be bullish on the Euro (versus the Dollar)

Russia ETF (RSX)

The Russia ETF (RSX) ;
1) Resistance level is quite clear
2) Focus on that trendline ; a close below it is really bearish
3) Watch the price of crude oil as well
4) Next move ? hope for a tight channel 14 to 16 ; enter right above $16

iShares MSCI Japan Index (EWJ)

Pay attention to that resistance level in the iShares MSCI Japan Index (EWJ) ;
1) We did have a "clean" clear break out (see red trendline)
2) We shall probably face a "channel pattern" before moving higher ?
3) Safe entry level is right above $8.25

iShares MSCI Brazil Index ETF (EWZ)

Quick look at the iShares MSCI Brazil Index ETF (EWZ) ;
1) Resistance level is quite clear
2) See that small trendline ? a close below it is really bearish
3) The good news ? still in a higher lows pattern
Conclusion ? 42.5$ (and above) is now your safe entry level

DryShips Inc. (DRYS), on my radar screen

DryShips, Inc. (DRYS)
DryShips, Inc. engages in the ownership and operation of drybulk carriers worldwide. The company's fleet carries various drybulk commodities, including coal, iron ore, grains, bauxite, phosphate, fertilizers, and steel products. As of March 14, 2008, it owned and operated a fleet of 46 drybulk carriers comprising 5 Capesize, 31 Panamax, 2 Supramax, and 8 newbuilding drybulk vessels with a combined deadweight tonnage of approximately 4 million tons. The company was founded in 2004 and is headquartered in Athens, Greece.

Intel Corp. (INTC) consumer blog

The inside scoop ; Intel Corp. (INTC) consumer blog
Stories from real people @ Intel
http://scoop.intel.com
New career at Intel : Social Media Strategist

Blog looks great :)

Will probably sell today

Why ? Well, experience teaches me that a bear market is not "fixed" overnight.
Its been a nice ride ; and guess what ? a profit is a profit :)
I'll love to buy and hold and shut down this computer ; but its not my trading style.
I need more improved news from the big blue chips to "hold" my ETFs ....
Right now, small moves, quick in and out ; no the time to play heroes here.
So yes, I'll probably sell today
Look at "all" the facts, and follow your intuition.

European Nuclear Market, Frost & Sullivan Foresees Substantial Increase in Orders

European Nuclear Market, Frost & Sullivan Foresees Substantial Increase in Orders: "The number of aging power plants in Europe has given rise to an increasing need for the construction of new plants. An estimated 300GW of capacity needs to be added in Europe by 2020. Additionally, the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS), emissions regulations will tighten in 2013 as it enters Phase III. Facing these circumstances, nuclear power surfaces as an attractive option in carbon-constrained Europe, and it is expected that nuclear energy will be back on the agenda for many countries which have been quite reluctant to this generating option."

Moody's/REAL Commercial Property Price Index Declines 5.5% For January

Moody's/REAL Commercial Property Price Index Declines 5.5% For January: "The Moody's/REAL National All Property Type Aggregate Index from Real Estate Analytics LLC (REAL), measures 151.58 for January 2009, a monthly decrease of 5.5%. This marks the single largest one-month drop in the history of the Index, which has now declined by 19.1% from January 2008 and is 21% below its peak of October, 2007.

'While it is unsettling to see the sharp deterioration of commercial real estate values, the CPPI continues to perform as an accurate and timely benchmark for the asset class,' said Neal Elkin, President of REAL. 'The data for January show the largest drop since we began calculating the Index, and reveals that declines are accelerating and permeating all regions and property types.'"

Does your corporation have a blog ?

Watch the video here

AMD blogged about something and then Intel said blogs weren’t the place to talk about important issues ????

I am surprised to still see so many European companies NOT using the power of blogs.


Full source : www.chrisbrogan.com

Apple Inc (AAPL) entry level with stop loss

Quick look at Apple Inc (AAPL) ;
1) The 100 days Exp MA (resistance level) was taken out
2) First buy signal (crossing MA) ; 5 and 50 ; now 5 is over 100
Long term investors (mostly using the 100 as a signal) can now enter safely (I am using the $100 levels as my stop loss)

Market opinion

Ok, was expecting a pull back ....
Never occured .....
So what am I holding today ?
PowerShares DB Crude Oil Dble Long ETN (DXO)
Direxion Financial Bull 3X Shares (FAS)
SP 500 index ETF (SPY)
Brazil ETF (EWZ)
Russia ETF (RSX)
United States Oil fund ETF (USO)
Apple inc (AAPL) with a stop loss at $100
Position size ? 5% of my capital ; why so little ? well, I still do not feel
where are fully out of trouble yet ....
Then what ? as some of you know, I often sell and promote real estate projects in various countries (Thailand, Turkey, and Morrocco) ; now my focus is 100% on Miami, Florida.
Already bought two villas (real cheap), and planning to buy more NOW.
With a sudden rise in the Euro, its the right time to add some US real estate.
Holding time ? probably 3 years.
Spain is cheap as well, but Miami is THE place to be (for European investors)
So, to my American friends reading this blog, here is a great business idea ; how about organizing
a property tour of Miami ? (or other parts of Florida)
I'll promote the tour on my blog :)

Google versus Facebook

This cartoon of Google (GOOG) versus Facebook shows exactly what I feel about Facebook.
Will they trade places (in terms of who will be bigger in the future ?)
Facebook recently changed its format to look more like Twitter ; meaning ? they both see a major threat from Twitter !
What is Google doing about Facebook ???
I don't know about you, but I spend more time on Facebook than any other web sites out there !

Thailand Set index and South Korea Kospi index

Above, we have the Thailand Set Index ;
Channel pattern confirmed ; wait for a weekly close above 450 before going long


The South Korea Kospi index is facing a clear resistance level around the 1200 levels.
I would go long if we close the week above the 1250 levels
Be patient ; we first need a real bullish signal from the US

What is Foreign Exchange

What is Foreign Exchange

Foreign Exchange (FX or Forex) is one of the largest and most liquid financial markets in the world. According to the authoritative Triennial Central Bank Survey from Bank for International Settlements, Basel, average daily turnover in April 2007 exceeded US $3.2 trillion, and evidence suggests that the market is still expanding. The spot market accounts for around a third of activity in the FX market.

FX is simple to understand once it is realized that a currency is effectively a commodity whose value can change against other currencies, as well as other assets, such as gold and oil.

What is FX Trading

In an FX transaction, one currency is sold in exchange for another one. The rate expresses the relative value between the two currencies. Currencies are normally identified by a three-digit ‘Swift’ code. For instance, EUR = the euro, USD = the US dollar, CHF = the Swiss franc and so on. A full list of codes can be found here. A EUR/USD rate of 1.5000 means that €1 is worth $1.5.

Sometimes, EUR/USD is referred to as a currency pair. The rate can be inverted. So a EUR/USD rate of 1.5000 is the same as a USD/EUR rate of 0.6666. In other words, $1 is worth €0.6666. The market convention is that most currencies tend to be quoted against the dollar, but there are notable exceptions, such as with the EUR/USD already mentioned, GBP/USD (UK sterling) and AUD/USD (the Australian dollar). This is not as confusing as it may sound.

Foreign Exchange Rate Systems

There are basically two types of exchange rate systems:

Flexible Exchange Rate System

In a flexible exchange rate system, a currency is ‘free’ to float and its value is determined by market forces.

Fixed Exchange Rate System:

In a fixed exchange rate system, a currency is not allowed to fluctuate freely. Instead, its value is fixed either against a single currency, such as the USD, at a specific rate, or a basket of currencies. In a fixed system, the local central bank will use its currency reserves to prevent rate movements.

Major Influences on FX Prices

There are numerous factors that determine a free floating currency’s worth in the market, from international trade flow, economic and political conditions, the level of interest rates to simple short-term supply and demand. Unlike many other assets, FX is a pure market and rates move freely both up and down.

Over-the-Counter Market

The Forex market is an 'over the counter market' (OTC), which means that there is no physical location and no central exchange and clearing hours where orders are matched. Instead, it operates 24-hours a day via an electronic network of banks, corporations and individuals trading one currency for another.

FX traders constantly negotiate prices between one another and the resulting market bid/ask prices are then fed into computers and displayed on official quote screens. Forex exchange rates quoted between banks are referred to as Inter-bank Rates.

FX market participants

There are numerous different types of participants in the FX market and frequently they are looking for very different outcomes when they trade. This is why that although FX is often described as a ‘zero-sum’ game – what one investor makes is equal in theory to what another has lost – there are numerous opportunities to make money. FX can be thought of as a pie from which everyone can have a decent meal.

Traditionally, banks have been the main participants in the FX market. They still remain the largest players in terms of market share, but transparency has made the FX market far more democratic. Now virtually everyone has access to the same, extremely narrow prices that are quoted in the interbank market.

Banks remain the main players in the FX market, but a new breed of market makers, such as hedge funds and commodity trading advisors, has emerged over the past decade.

Central Banks can also play an important role in the FX market, while international corporations have a natural interest to trade on account of their exposure to FX risk.

Retail FX has expanded rapidly over the past decade and while precise figures are hard to come by, this sector is believed to represent as much as 20% of the FX market.

Spot FX versus Currency Futures

While most FX trading takes place OTC, there is also a quite vibrant and successful futures market. Turnover on the CME, based in Chicagois around US $85 billion a day. Several other exchanges also offer currency futures.

Typically, spot FX prices are for T+2 settlement. That means trades which are not closed out are settled in 2-working days. Futures tend to have a maturity of 3-months and so are settled quarterly, normally in March, June, September and December. This is why futures prices often look different from spot. In reality, they are almost 100% correlated. The FX market is too efficient not to arbitrage out any price discrepancies. The futures price includes the forward rates of currency pairs.

Generally, futures prices are quoted as the US dollar versus the currency – in other words, a futures price is the inversion of the spot rate, plus the swap price to the maturity date. Again, this is not as complicated as it sounds.

Where to trade is a matter of choice and both the OTC and the futures markets have their merits. But the OTC market does offer more flexibility and it is generally cheaper to trade in.

Advantage of FX Trading

24 Hour Market

FX is a global market that never sleeps. It is active 24-hours a day for almost 7-days a week. Most activity takes place between the time the New Zealand market opens on Monday, which is Sunday evening in Europe, until the US market closes on Friday evening.

Liquidity

The FX market is huge and it is still expanding. Daily average volume now exceeds US$ 3.2 trillion. Technology has made this market accessible to almost anyone and retail traders have flocked to FX.

Leverage

FX margin ratios tend to be higher than those available in equity because it is more liquid – there is nearly always a price in FX ­– and it tends to be less volatile.

Narrow Spreads

Spreads, the difference between the bid and offer price, in FX are miniscule. Just compare a 2-pip price in EUR/USD with a price in even the most active and liquid equity issue. Furthermore, FX prices are typically ‘good’ for far larger amounts than in equity. The spread is the hidden, ‘intrinsic’ cost of dealing and in FX it is minimal. Technology has made these tight prices available to almost everyone.

No Commission or Transaction Costs

The majority of OTC FX business is commission free and with such narrow spreads, the intrinsic cost of trading is far lower than in other assets, such as equity.

Profit potential regardless of market direction

FX is a pure market. Prices can just as easily go up as down. If a trader believes a currency is about to depreciate, there are seldom restrictions on selling it although if the position is held for more than one day, there is a cost of carry to consider. Profit potential exists in FX regardless of whether a trader is buying or selling and regardless of whether the market is moving up or down.

Equal Access to Market Information

Despite the introduction of best execution regulations in Europe and the US, few would disagree that professional traders and analysts in the equity market have a huge competitive advantage in comparison to individual traders. In FX, perhaps the only advantage the big banks have is flow information. But FX is a democratic market where virtually all participants have access to the same market moving information as everyone else.

Source ; MIG Forex
www.migfx.com

Did you know ?

Google: Beware the eBay Curse (Read the article)

1) Did you known that Excite had the chance to buy Google for peanuts ?
2) Google CEO now calls Twitter a "poor man's email"

Case study, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the weekly MACD

Lets take a quick look at the weekly chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average ;
A parabolic fall ? Yes, experience teaches me that they do occur (less often than parabolic rises).
Great potential for reversals
MACD is now giving us a higher lows
Pay attention to the "tiny trendline"
Great entry level (if you like using the MACD) ; in the 12,26 (MACD signal) wait for a weekly close above -750

An idea on how to refund Madoff's victims

The government managed to seize around $1 Billion from his company and other personal assets.
I suggest they use that cash to buy the following ;
Direxion Financial Bull 3X Shares (FAS)
The investment seeks to replicate, net of expenses, 300% of the daily performance of the Russell 1000 Financial Services Index .
Buy and hold for 5 years.

Stock brokers are back with a new bait

A Bait is a luring substance (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bait)
What is the substance Brokers send us ? You tell me .....

Do you use Bizstats ? You should

BizStats is the leading free online source for small business statistics. BizStats collects, analyzes, edits and adds value to public data and delivers it without cost in an easy-to-read, easy-to-understand format. You can spend hours or days tracking down raw versions of much of the information we offer – but we do the legwork for you. We select and analyze raw data to develop value-added calculations and useful statistics, and publish the results in a unique, easily accessible format for business owners, valuation professionals, accountants and consultants.

BizStats is owned and operated by the Brandow Company of Camp Hill, PA, a leader in online data analysis since 1998. The Brandow Company also owns and operates BizMiner, publisher of 2.5 million online industry trend reports.

We are not responsible for any errors in calculation or presentation on BizStats. The Brandow Company is not responsible for conclusions drawn or decisions made based upon this data or analysis. In no event will the Brandow Company be liable for any damages, direct, indirect, incidental or consequential resulting from the use of the information in BizStats reports.
Source ; http://www.bizstats.com

Google Inc. (GOOG), when to go long

Weekly chart of Google Inc. (GOOG) ;
Typical ABC pattern ;
"A" price zooms up after a low and finds a resistance, it then pulls back
"B" real support, price then attempts to go higher
"C" is our real buy ; right above "A"
Real entry level is right above $375 (if possible on increased volume and improved fundamentals)

Apple Inc. (AAPL), weekly chart

Let's take a look at the weekly chart of Apple Inc. (AAPL) ;
One thing that is clear here is that we are facing a channel pattern ;
1) Hard to trade
2) Constantly waiting for a break out (up or down)
3) 80 and 100 seem to be our real reversal levels
What is my plan here ?
To wait for a clear "weekly close" above $110 on "higher volume" and if possible "improved fundamentals".
Break outs on increased volume means ; "pattern reversal" ; we need it to really go long ; but we also need some better "market news" as well
Pay attention to the SP 500 and the Nasdaq ; do not expect to see Apple go higher if those indexes trade sideways or lower

SP 500 chart, was that another fake move ?

Quick analysis of the SP 500 chart ;
Settings used ; Exp MA (5,50,100)
You know that I am sitting on "cash" (just have a small position in DXO)
750 to 800 was our "tight channel of the week"
Signal 5,50 (crossover) failed ..... again ....
Pattern is still a lower highs (bearish)
What do we need to really go long ? Price above 750, forming higher lows

Nasdaq daily chart analysis

Nasdaq daily chart analysis ;
1) Was this another fake signal ?
2) Pay attention to the "key higher lows level" ; if we bounce up and go higher above this level, I'll go long again
Items to focus on ;
PowerShares QQQ (QQQQ) and Proshares Ultra QQQ Fund ETF (QLD)
Settings used on this chart ; multiple crossover ; Exp MA ; 5,50,100
Clear resistance level ; 1500

US Solar Market Hit Record Growth in 2008, Despite Economic Crisis

US Solar Market Hit Record Growth in 2008, Despite Economic Crisis: "The Solar Energy Industries Association released its 2008 U.S. Solar Industry Year in Review, highlighting a third year of record growth. SEIA reports 1,265 megawatts of solar power of all types were installed in 2008, raising total capacity 17 percent to 8,775 MW. The 2008 figure included 342 MW of solar photovoltaic (PV), 139 MW of solar water heating, 762 MW of pool heating and an estimated 21 MW of solar space heating and cooling.

SEIA President and CEO Rhone Resch: 'Despite economic pressures, solar energy demand grew tremendously in 2008. Solar is an emerging economic engine, creating thousands of jobs, unleashing billions in investment and building new factories nationwide.

'To continue growing, create jobs and meet President Obama's renewable energy goals, we need smart federal policies, like a renewable portfolio standard designed to deploy solar resources. Today's technology combined with the right policies will help us double U.S. solar production and move to a clean energy future.'"

All Humour is Caused by Just Eight Patterns

All Humour is Caused by Just Eight Patterns: "Clarke has stated before that humour is based on the surprise recognition of patterns but this is the first time he has narrowed them down to eight specific types.

'Some of the patterns are quite simple and easy to understand. The most basic is what we call positive repetition, which just means that something is repeated in a similar form with the same purpose. The repeated item can be anything - an action, an entity, or a property.

'Then there's opposition, in which something is turned against itself. You might think of this as seeing a reflection in a river or turning an arrow back to point in the other direction, creating a pattern of symmetry.

'Another is what we call 'scale,' where we take something and repeat it in a different size. The item remains the same but the scale it's on changes, which is a common way to form a visual pattern."

Gold chart analysis using the Gold ETF (GLD)

Lets take a look at the Gold ETF (GLD) ;
1) Price surge with huge volume confirms reversal
2) Main thing that bothers me ? that resistance channel (see chart)
3) Time to go long ? Not so fast .....
4) If you "did" buy ; use 92 as your stop
Otherwise ? I am waiting for a "confirmed" close above 94 by Monday/Tuesday ; then will consider going long

Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) buy signal ?

Let's take a quick look at the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) ;
1) Volume surge and huge candle reversal confirms bullish pattern
2) GAP plus huge volume confirms again bull pattern
3) If you did buy, use that gap level as your stop loss
I'll wait for monday, and see if we do break out above that resistance level, then enter

Survey: 60 Million U.S. Consumers Worried About Recession Likely to Hang Up on High Cell Phone Costs

Survey: 60 Million U.S. Consumers Worried About Recession Likely to Hang Up on High Cell Phone Costs: "As fears about the recession become more widespread, millions of Americans are on the verge of disconnecting expensive cell phone plans. Two out of five Americans with contract-based cell phones -- 39 percent or 60.3 million consumers -- are likely to cut back on their cell phones to save money if, as is widely expected, the economy gets worse over the next six months, according to new survey of 2,005 Americans conducted by Opinion Research Corporation (ORC) for the New Millennium Research Council (NMRC)."

London Property Prices Increase Despite Economic Slowdown

London Property Prices Increase Despite Economic Slowdown: "House prices in prime areas of London increased by 0.94% in February, the fourth successive month of rises, according to Primelocation.com's monthly house price index.

Asking prices in February rose across four of the five prime London regions, with the largest monthly increase recorded in West/South West London (2.84%).

Central London is the only region to still record positive year-on-year growth (3.24%).

Outside the Capital, prices fell again for the seventh successive month, bringing average asking prices down 0.39% on January 2009.

Andrew Smith, Primelocation.com's Head of Research, comments: 'This is the fourth successive month that the Prime Index has recorded growth in the London market, a trend which is being driven by a decline in stock levels and the return of positive annual growth in Central London."

US Dollar Index

On March 10, 2009 ; I published the chart you see below ;
http://gicharts.blogspot.com/2009/03/us-dollar-facing-double-top.html
Do we have a clear price target for the $US Dollar ?
Will that main trendline (see chart above) be the main support ?

Direxion Financial Bull 3X Shares (FAS)

Keeping my eyes focused on Direxion Financial Bull 3X Shares (FAS).
What am I hoping for ?
A strong pull back :)
Resistance level is quite clear
Since this ETN is pretty volatile, I'll attempt to enter "small positions" on another sell off

PowerShares DB Crude Oil Dble Long ETN (DXO), and crude oil prices

Bought a small position in PowerShares DB Crude Oil Dble Long ETN (DXO).
Crude oil just "broke out" of its resistance channel (see yellow level on the chart)

Market opinion

A few days ago, I wrote that the Euro Dollar was about to face some huge move/break out.
Was NOT expecting such a huge move !
I was not bullish on the Euro (the long term pattern was not in its favor)
Now what ?
Another huge fake move as seen a few months ago ?
Euro zone is in a huge mess ; a higher Euro will kill any hopes to increase any exports !
I am still in cash.
Sold my ETFs a few days ago, will not invest yet until I see some clear higher lows.
Waiting for the pull back ; and at least some improved fundamentals.
PS : attention all chartists, if fundamentals do not start to improve soon, you may/could be facing some huge fake moves again.
Right now ? Observing, enjoying the sunny days in Brussels :)
At least some good news for me regarding investors seeking to invest in US real estate projects ; this sudden Euro rise might incite them to act faster :)
So many amazing deals out there ; from Turkey to Thailand to Miami ......

SP 500 chart update

SP 500 chart update ;
I sold too early ? that's ok, booking profits is what I need.
Now what ?
See that clear tight channel ?
I do not like those conditions ......
Why ? we could face obvious fake moves ....
Let me remind you of what I am clearly looking for here ; HIGHER LOWS
Will investors cash out before Friday's close ? it would make sense !
Ok, let's wait for a pull back, then another move upward (see yesterdays SP 500 chart)

When to short Gold using DB Gold Double Short ETN (DZZ)

Quick look at the daily chart of Gold ;
1) Setting used ; 20 & 50 days simple moving average
2) Price near support (50 days SMA)
3) 20 days SMA corresponds to the resistance level 930 to 940
4) Short trigger is right below 890
5) If short is activated, use the 50 days SMA as your stop loss
Item to use : DB Gold Double Short ETN (DZZ)

Urban Outfitters Entrusts NeuStar with Web Performance Monitoring Services

Urban Outfitters Entrusts NeuStar with Web Performance Monitoring Services: "Through its online presence, Urban Outfitters aims to translate its unique 'lifestyle boutique' approach to the Web - and NeuStar's Webmetrics monitoring data and network alerts will help Urban Outfitters create a positive online experience for its savvy, cosmopolitan customer base. With NeuStar's Webmetrics website monitoring service, Urban Outfitters will be better equipped to identify, diagnose, and remedy problems before they result in downtime and lost revenues.

NeuStar's Webmetrics website monitoring service helps online retailers by simulating, tracking, and reporting on the performance that end users experience when visiting sites. Monitoring is conducted by NeuStar's Webmetrics' network of agents located in over 95 cities throughout the world, which provide a true view into a customer's experience regardless of location. The combination of NeuStar's broad Webmetrics agent network and sophisticated website monitoring technology results in a unique service that can measure performance from an end-user perspective, providing actionable reports and alerts for enhancing the online experience."

Wow, that's what you call the "next generation of marketing stats" ; I wonder how many online retailers will start to use NeuStar, Inc. (NSR)

RBC Hedge 250 Index(R) returned -0.62 per cent in February 2009

RBC Hedge 250 Index(R) returned -0.62 per cent in February 2009: "RBC Capital Markets today reported that for the month of February 2009 the RBC Hedge 250 Index(R) had a net return of -0.62 per cent. This brings the year-to-date return of the Index to 0.63 per cent. These returns are estimated and will be finalized by the middle of next month. The return for January 2009 has been finalized at 1.27 per cent.

The RBC Hedge 250 Index is an investable benchmark of the performance of the hedge fund industry. The Index operates in accordance with a unique construction methodology. Comprised of more than 250 actual hedge funds, the RBC Hedge 250 Index is positioned as the industry's most diversified and representative investable index. The Universe on which the Index is based currently consists of 5,695 hedge funds (excludes funds of hedge funds) with aggregate assets under management of $1.200 trillion."

Apple Previews Developer Beta of iPhone OS 3.0

Apple Previews Developer Beta of iPhone OS 3.0: "The new iPhone OS 3.0 is a major software release packed with incredible new features and innovations for iPhone customers and developers alike. It will keep us years ahead of the competition,' said Philip Schiller, Apple's senior vice president of Worldwide Product Marketing.

The iPhone OS 3.0 beta software and SDK include over 1,000 new APIs and are available today for all iPhone Developer Program members to use for development and testing of their apps for iPhone and iPod touch. Included in these APIs is the ability to leverage the incredible purchase model of the App Store within apps. In-App Purchases will allow developers to offer subscription content and provide the ability to sell new content and features in a simple and secure process. Developers can also more easily create peer-to-peer games for iPhone and iPod touch by using Bluetooth."

Apple Inc. (AAPL), with a trading system

A popular use for moving averages is to develop simple trading systems based on moving average crossovers. A trading system using two moving averages would give a buy signal when the shorter (faster) moving average advances above the longer (slower) moving average. A sell signal would be given when the shorter moving average crosses below the longer moving average.
Source : http://stockcharts.com
Ok, now lets take a look at Apple Inc. (AAPL)
1) Settings ; Exp Moving averages ; 5,50,100
2) Pay attention to the resistance levels
3) First buy signal was right above 93$, second is right above 102$
Probability of success ? high if you use this systems with channel break outs
Main channel to break out from ? 105$ (for long term investors)
Stop loss ? 50 days exp moving average

SP 500 chart analysis

Let's take a quick look at the SP 500 chart ;
Now you know why I sold "ALL" my ETFs at 750.
This is what I see ;
1) The 20 days SMA is still pointing down (bearish)
2) See that green arrow/scenario ? we need to see this occur within 10 days !
3) Basically we need some real higher lows pattern
4) See that warning level ? if we close the week below 720, we may face some trouble again.
Conclusion ;
Like I said before, do not expect a sudden "V" shape recovery
Picture this in your mind ; a long U (hope for that actually)
How about some improved news ???? we really need that too ....
Some countries of course are showing signs of strenghs ;
ie ; Brazil and China
Is that enough to get the heavy train moving ? I doubt it .......
The world's biggest companies can be found in the SP 500 ; if that index does not move higher, expect other global indexes to reverse downward.

S&P Licenses Deutsche Bank to Create Products Based Upon S&P U.S. Carbon Efficient Index

S&P Licenses Deutsche Bank to Create Products Based Upon S&P U.S. Carbon Efficient Index: "Standard & Poor's, the world's leading index provider, announced today that it has licensed Deutsche Bank to create and launch a family of products based upon the recently launched S&P U.S. Carbon Efficient Index.

The S&P U.S. Carbon Efficient Index, which is part of the Standard & Poor's global thematic index series, measures the performance of large cap U.S. companies with relatively low carbon emissions, while seeking to closely track the return of the S&P 500.

The Index is composed of a subset of constituents in the S&P 500 with a relatively low Carbon Footprint while maintaining at least 50% of the original weight representation for every GICS(R) sector in the S&P 500. The Carbon Footprint is calculated by Trucost PLC and provides an assessment of how efficiently a company utilizes energy in its business. Carbon Footprint is defined by the company's annual greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions as a percent of annual revenues."

When do I use trenlines

When I post charts, you do not often see trendlines ; I prefer to use them in "closed only charts".
Why ? People tend to draw trendlines everywhere ; I find moving averages to be more reliable in spotting reversals.
Lets use this case study with AMD (AMD) ;
The upper chart shows that we are near a HUGE buy signal (right above 2.80$)
The bottom line shows us that we "may" face some heavy resistance, BUT if we where to break out above that trendline, the upper move should be HUGE

New Investor Behavior Research Featured in Morningstar Principia(R) Presentations and Education 2009 Edition

New Investor Behavior Research Featured in Morningstar Principia(R) Presentations and Education 2009 Edition: "During this difficult economic climate, financial advisors are looking for tools to put the current market unrest into historical context for their clients, helping to convince investors to avoid rash decisions. Seeking to address this uncertainty and client anxiety, Morningstar, Inc. (NASDAQ:MORN) , a leading provider of independent investment research, today released the 2009 update to its Morningstar Principia(R) Presentations and Education software. The software module contains a library of presentations and materials featuring relevant, fundamental investing concepts and strategies to provide the effective client communication tools advisors need in these unsteady times.

One of the key new features of the 2009 edition is a research-based presentation on investor behavior. The presentation uses graphs, charts, and data to explore how perceptions or emotions impact investors' decisions, and it reviews behavioral concepts like 'hindsight bias,' 'mental accounting,' and the 'hot-hand fallacy.' It also includes strategies to help clients cope with near-term fluctuations and address the volatility of the market in a rational and productive manner."

New Web Based News Program Focuses on Mid Cap, Small and Micro Cap Businesses Around the World

New Web Based News Program Focuses on Mid Cap, Small and Micro Cap Businesses Around the World: "In Full View (IFV) launched the first of its weekly webreports this past weekend, at http://www.ifvnews.com/, on mid cap, small and micro cap businesses around the world.

Euro versus the Swiss Franc

What a reversal in the Euro versus the Swiss Franc !!!
Switzerland is facing its worst recession in over three decades.
The Swiss central bank said it was "implementing'' its decision to buy foreign currencies.
Next target = 1.5900 ?
Not so fast ..... allow a channel to set up first
PS : Eurozone is NOT doing much better either ....
Elections are coming here, no wonder no one is telling us the truth ....

How and when to short US treasuries

First the facts concerning this ETF ;
iShares Barclays 7-10 Year Treasury (IEF)
The investment seeks results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance of the intermediate-term sector of the United States Treasury market as defined by the Barclays Capital 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury index. The fund generally invests at least 90% of assets in the bonds of the underlying index and at least 95% of assets in U.S. government.
Now lets look at the chart ;
1) The 100 days SMA corresponds to our support channel
2) The 50 days SMA corresponds to our resistance channel
3) Simple fact ; the price you see in IEF will not "remain" in that channel
4) I expect to see a break out below that support channel
5) A close Below $93 is my short trigger

Was that another fake bullish move in crude oil ?

Quick look at chart of light crude oil ;
1) Another fake move ? (see past fake moves on the chart)
2) Setting used is the 100 days moving average
3) Today's price was a "gap down" ?
4) Stuck in a real tight channel
5) The lower band of that tight channel is your "warning signal"
6) Long term channel pattern is intact (see yellow levels on chart)

Euro Dollar chart analysis

Quick analysis of the Euro Dollar chart ;
1) Settings used = simple moving averages (20,50)
2) Main resistance channel (yellow zone), see chart
3) In mid Dec 2008, the Euro broke out of that channel
4) Same conditions today ?
5) 50 days MA still pointing down
6) 20 days MA still way below the 50 days MA
Conclusion ; high possibility of seing a "fake move"
Oil is down by over 4% this morning ...... and the Euro is up ??? mmmm
What would make me bullish on the Euro ? A monthly close above 1.3100

Sony to Host Free Electronics Recycling Event in Mountain View

Sony to Host Free Electronics Recycling Event in Mountain View: "To encourage consumers to recycle old, no longer working or unwanted electronics products, Sony Electronics is inviting Bay Area residents to recycle any brand of outdated electronics for free at a drive-up event on March 28 from 9 a.m. to 4 p.m. at the Shoreline Amphitheater.

Drivers of the first 2,000 cars to drop off unwanted electronics will receive a voucher for a Sony product valued at $100, which can be redeemed at Sony Style stores at the Valley Fair or Stanford shopping centers."

Now that is what I call "smart advertising"

Countries in Europe and Asia Agree to Modify Treaty Provisions

Countries in Europe and Asia Agree to Modify Treaty Provisions: "At least seven countries and territories have announced that they will change longstanding positions on international information exchange in tax cases, which will have profound implications in the context of U.S. Internal Revenue Service civil and criminal investigations. Liechtenstein, Switzerland, Luxembourg, Austria, Andorra, Hong Kong and Singapore have indicated that bank information may be provided in accordance with model treaty and informational exchange agreements.

'Previously, these countries and territories would honor an information request from the U.S. only if U.S. authorities could provide specific evidence of serious tax offenses"

Copper chart update

Clear higher lows pattern in Copper prices.
Using a multiple crossover with three exp moving averages ; 5,50, and 100.
Pay attention to a possible break out above 180

My latest painting

Title : "The Lady with the purple hat"
You can view my other paintings here ; http://moiselevi.blogspot.com

The art of spotting a reversal

How do I spot a reversal ?
Forget your moving averages, trends, resistance ..... etc ....
You need three things (I often mention them on this blog) , its called GVN
GVN ; Gap, Volume, and high impact News
Now, knowing this info, where do I enter ?
See the high on Friday's candle ? (2.60$)
Buy right above it
What other stocks out there are giving us a GVN condition ?
Eastman Kodak (EK)
Sara Lee corp (SLE)
Sanofi Aventis (SNY)

The Open Forum

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