Forex, Euro Dollar, another fake move ?

Another fake move in the Euro Dollar ?
Main pattern is still bearish
We NEED to reverse "BELOW" 1.3200 in the next 4 to 6 days (see trigger on the chart)
If we do not reverse below 1.3200 ; our next target will be 1.3700
Meaning ? I will turn bullish on the Euro
Patience ....

Light crude oil update

Get ready for a HUGE buy signal on light crude oil ;
"C" is right above $55
Focus on PowerShares DB Crude Oil Dble Long ETN (DXO)

The ABC pattern by Moise Levi

I often refer to the ABC pattern on this blog.
I like simple things ; they make sense.
Complex systems = confused messages to my brain = failure in trading !
What is the ABC pattern ?
High impact news tend to create a gap and huge volume
This pattern combines News & Price action.
Price will rise (or fall if its a bad news) fast sending us to "A"
Then comes the pull back (retracement), price finds a support (until more good news show up, then price will break out above that recent high.
In the case of a hard fall, price will first find "A" ; retrace up to "B" , then price will fall again on more bad news and go below "A" ; causing our main short signal "C"
Traders/ Investors should buy (or short) at "C"
Why ? Call this pattern a safe entry level
If you have any question regarding this simple pattern ; email me here
moiselevi@gmail.com

Market Vectors Russia ETF (RSX)

Quick look at the weekly chart of the Market Vectors Russia ETF (RSX) ;
1) Resistance is clear (see level "A")
2) "B" is our 20 weeks exp moving average
3) "C" is a weekly close right above "A"

Time to sell Mexico ETF (EWW) ?

Time to sell Mexico ETF (EWW) ?
1) Resistance level is quite clear
2) Crime rate (narco drug gangs) is on the rise and will keep on rising .....
3) Real Estate prices in Mexico ? who wants to buy a home near a crime zone ???
4) Price of EWW rose "too fast" and is ripe for a HUGE sell off !!!
5) China bans pork imports from U.S andMexico .....
6) Swine Flu Outbreak Spreads to Canada, Asia; More Than 100 Dead in Mexico
Conclusion ? short trigger is right below 31$

Time to buy and sell Face Masks from 3M (MMM) ?

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The 3M™ ESPE™ Triple Layer Face Maskoffers >99% Bacterial Filtration Efficiency (BFE) at a mean particle size of 5.0 microns to help reduce patient contamination caused by exhaled microorganisms.

3M Co. (MMM)
Health officials around the world worked to contain what appears to be a spreading swine flu outbreak on Monday, while one out of every five residents in Mexico's most populous city wore masks to protect themselves against the virus

Euro Dollar long term chart versus the Dollar index long term chart

Settings used ; simple weekly moving average crossover (4 and 40)
Those of you following me for years now do recall that I often look at those settings (weekly 4,40, & 80).
Lets put the fundamentals aside ; no one here can pretend to fully "understand" all the datas we are getting regarding the US or Euroland economies ......
What are the charts telling us ?
1) Chart on top is of the Euro Dollar ; it clearly shows that the 40 weeks moving average is still pointing down ; it also shows that "ALL" Euro retracements where blocked by that long term moving average ...... and we are still in a lower highs pattern
2) Lets look at the $USD Dollar weekly chart ; 40 weeks moving average is REALLY pointing up,
and we are still in a higher lows pattern.
I have been bullish on the $USD Dollar for a long time ......
One thing we can say for sure ; it has been a wild ride !!!!!!!
It reminds me of the Turkish Lira :)
Conclusion ; those weekly chart are giving us specific targets (see yellow levels).
Can reversals occur fast ???? I doubt it .....
Why ??
Pay attention to the SLOPE of the long term moving average ........
A reversal occurs when that moving average is LESS steep .......
Its not the case ....
I am expecting a HUGE move in the Dollar .......
Fasten your seat belt :)

Weekly Forex

The Dollar had a very mixed week with risk appetite encouraging selling while Euro weakness improved USD demand. The stock market remained buoyant bringing a 6^th week of gains but this failed to translate to fresh gains in risky trades such as the AUD/JPY. US retail sales dropped -1.1% vs. +0.3% forecast and revived fresh concerns about the US consumer. CPI (Mar) fell -0.1% and raised the question of deflation. Also weaker than expected was Industrial Production (Mar) at -1.5% vs. -0.9% previously. On a positive note Consumer sentiment (April) jumped to 61.9 vs. 58.4. The Euro continued to come under pressure last week as speculation that the ECB will join the ranks of UK, US and Japan in unconventional measures. Speculation was fueled by ECB member comments that further rate cuts are possible and that details will be revealed at the May meeting. CPI (Mar) at 0.6% y/y at forecasts. Industrial Production improved to -2.3% vs. -2.5% forecast. The EUR/USD fell -0.96% closing at 1.3043, after opening the week at 1.3168. The Japanese Yen strengthened across the board as the market took profits on the recent large rallies seen on all the crosses. The pullback of the USD/JPY below 100 accelerated the selling. The Corporate Goods Price Index fell -2.2% vs. -1.7% forecast adding to fears of deflation in the worlds second largest economy. The USD/JPY fell -1.28% closing at 99.14 after opening at 100.41. The GBP continued to ride the improvement in risk appetite higher although the market found the 1.5000 level to hard to sustain pulling back sharply after Chinese GDP continued to slow. Also helping the pound was the rebound in the RICS house Price Balance to -73 vs. -78 previously. The GBP/USD gained 0.79% closing at 1.4796 after opening at 1.4679. The AUD attempted to make new gains this week but the 0.7300 level failed to provide fresh follow through and the lackluster Chinese data began to weigh into the close. The AUD/USD is due for a pullback technically after weeks of rallying. The AUD/USD closed down -0.86% at 0.7224 after opening at 0.7286.

Trade forex here with my signals

Macsurfer, the best source of info for Apple Inc. (AAPL)

The best source of info for Apple Inc. (AAPL)

http://www.macsurfer.com

Enjoy this 5 year monthly chart of Apple Inc. (AAPL) versus MSFT, HPQ, DELL and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ)
No comments ..........

Watch Gold next week

Quick case study on Gold ;
"B" level ; main support is now confirmed
"A" is quite clear
"C" is our "huge buy signal" right above 1000
First entry level is right above 930 , add positions above 940
Main stop is right @ 900

Light crude oil ABC chart pattern

Confirming a buy signal on PowerShares DB Crude Oil Dble Long ETN (DXO) ; the chart of light crude oil (see chart) tells me the following ;
"B" level is now confirmed ; huge buy signalis at "C" ; right above the $55 levels

Apple Inc. (AAPL), time to take profits ?

Quick case study of Apple Inc. (AAPL) ;
1) Indicator (lower) had a bullish divergence (PPO 5,100,1) ; what is it about ? Its like having two exp moving average crossover using the "0" level as a buy/sell signal ; great to use to spot a divergence
2) Uptrend is way way too steep ........ use $120 as your stop loss
3) Long term very bullish
4) Long term investors ; we are clearly above the 200 exp moving average ; you should use that simple indicator as a long term buy/sell signal.
Gut feeling now ; a pull back followed by a channel pattern

S&P Symposium Looks at Potential U.S. Move to International Financial Reporting Standards

S&P Symposium Looks at Potential U.S. Move to International Financial Reporting Standards: "Despite the issuance of an SEC 'roadmap' for the potential use of the financial statements prepared in accordance with international financial reporting standards (IFRS), much discussion continues about this possible move. One of the largest questions -- 'Is Now The Time to Move To International Financial Reporting Standards?' -- will be the central theme at a Standard & Poor's forum to be held on May 15th Through a series of panel discussions, the half-day event will explore the issuer's and user's perspective, including the opportunities, challenges and implications of introducing IFRS in the U.S."

Alpha Hedge Fund 100 top 10

"Alpha’s" Hedge Fund 100 Top 10

Rank Firm Total Capital ($ millions)
1 Bridgewater Associates 38,600
2 JPMorgan Asset Management 32,893
3 Paulson & Co. 29,000
4 D.E. Shaw & Co. 28,600
5 Brevan Howard Asset Management 26,840
6 Man Investments 24,400
7 Och-Ziff Capital Management Group 22,100
8 Soros Fund Management 21,000
9 Goldman Sachs Asset Management 20,585
10 Farallon Capital Management 20,000
10 Renaissance Technologies Corp. 20,000
To view the complete rankings for the Hedge Fund 100, visit www.alphamagazine.com

Warning, HUGE move to take place on the US Dollar !

This set up (multiple channel) gives me a huge warning signal ;
A BIG move will take place on the $USD Dollar !!!
Pay attention to the "warning triggers" (see chart)
Focus on those two long/short entry levels
PS : some see an head and shoulder pattern .....
Pay attention to Oil and Gold prices !!!

Forex : Euro Dollar reversal ?

As mentioned a few days ago, if the Euro reverses up above 1.3100 , consider that a bullish reversal. (first chart was posted a few days ago)
Now what ?
The 20 days moving average corresponds to a major resistance level (see yellow channel around 1.3200)
Moving average is still "pointing down" !!
Was that just a retracement ?
A drop NOW below 1.3100 will confirm that the bear scenario is intact.
I am staying out ; waiting for a confirmed price action around Tuesday

Florida's Existing Home, Condo Sales Rise in March 2009

Florida's Existing Home, Condo Sales Rise in March 2009: "Florida's existing home sales increased in March, making it the seventh month in a row that sales activity demonstrated gains in the year-to-year comparison, according to the latest housing data released by the Florida Association of Realtors(R) (FAR). March's statewide sales also increased over the previous month's sales level in both the existing home and existing condo markets."

Euro versus British Pound trading plan

Trading plan for the Euro versus the British Pound ;
After this clear parabolic rise (see red parabolic trendline on chart) ; the euro pound experienced "wild swings" , giving us a huge channel (see yellow channels on chart)
The Pound is way way oversold.
Gut feeling ? The Euro should soon break below the 0.88000 (bear trigger)
0.87000 is our HUGE short trigger
Reversal scenario ? we go above the 0.90115 next week ; I would then change my mind and go long.

Ingersoll-Rand Co. Ltd. (IR), case study

Warning, this is a WEEKLY chart of Ingersoll Rand Co. Ltd (IR)
Nice price rise yesterday, but lets not get "too excited" yet ....
Main pattern ? your basic channel
Next move ? buyers might be willing to push the price up a little then sell ....
Scenario you should look for ? The famous ABC pattern .....
Let other fools push the price up, allow IR to drop at "B" .... then wait for a fast price rise (with increased volume) and enter safely in about 3 to 4 weeks from now.
Ingersoll-Rand Co. on Wednesday provided greater clarity on its full-year guidance, suggesting that the diversified industrial manufacturer's 2009 results will not be as bad as previously thought.
Mmmmm yeah , right ......
The Bermuda-based company ????
What are they all about ??? It operates in four segments: Air Conditioning Systems and Services, Climate Control Technologies, Industrial Technologies, and Security Technologies. The Air Conditioning Systems and Services segment offers HVAC systems, dehumidifying and air cleaning products, service and parts support, and building controls, as well as financing solutions. This segment serves commercial, residential, institutional, and industrial markets.
Now lets use common sense .... commercial and residential market ???
Do not beleive the hype .... yet !

S&P Fund Services Launches Its Fund of Hedge Fund Ratings and Research Into the US Via a Partnership with HedgeFund.net,

S&P Fund Services Launches Its Fund of Hedge Fund Ratings and Research Into the US Via a Partnership with HedgeFund.net,: "Standard & Poor's Fund Services has announced that its Fund of Hedge Funds ratings and research reports will be available on HedgeFund.net, a leading global source of hedge fund news and research. Anyone wishing to access this information may register at (www.hedgefund.net).

With turbulent markets, a wave of redemptions and frequent negative reporting surrounding the hedge funds industry in recent months, investors are faced with a wave of confusing messages and reviews. With an emphasis on clear reporting and timely research, Standard & Poor's Funds Services and HedgeFund.net are providing investors with ratings and research on Funds of Hedge Funds to enhance transparency and help identify quality funds."

Proshares Ultra Real Estate ETF (URE)

Quick look at the Proshares Ultra Real Estate ETF (URE) ;
Yesterday's price action was our "B" level ? Probably !!!
"C" is our main long term buy trigger ; right above "A"
Volume confirms price action

IBM Introduces Products and Services to Combat New Security Threats

IBM Introduces Products and Services to Combat New Security Threats: "The new security products and services arrive as recent studies from the IBM X-Force security research group revealed that criminal organizations around the globe are developing new attack techniques with alarming speed. At the same time, businesses are increasingly deploying more collaborative business models and taking advantage of new information technology (IT) infrastructures like cloud computing, virtualization and Web 2.0 which introduce new complexities for security teams. IBM's new arsenal of security products are designed to meet customers' requirements; allow businesses to take advantage of new technology paradigms by helping to address new and emerging risk; and help address the cost and complexity of important security and compliance projects -- like Identity Assurance and Data Security management -- through introduction of simplified security solutions."

SP 500 chart update, the good news

Quick look at the chart of the SP 500 ;
1) We now have a very clear resistance level ; 875
2) "A" within our ABC pattern is quite clear ; "C" is clear as well (a close right above "A").
3) We need our "B" ; at what level ? 800 to 825 ???
Why the good news ??? Fundmentals did follow this latest price rise !
We still have a lot of scared investors out there (fund managers, pension fund managers, hedge funds etc ....)
Non beleivers will only buy at "C" ; meaning right above 875 in order not to miss the train.
The real money is in Oil and Financials thanks to those two ;
Direxion Financial Bull 3X Shares (FAS)
PowerShares DB Crude Oil Dble Long ETN (DXO)

Euro Dollar chart update

Quick look at the Euro Dollar chart ;
Main "sell signal on the Euro still activated"
Pay attention to those "cut shorts" and "add shorts" levels
Reversal = 1.3100
Moving average used = simple 20 days

Will buy PowerShares DB Crude Oil Dble Long ETN (DXO) soon

Quick look at the chart of light crude oil concerning the PowerShares DB Crude Oil Dble Long ETN (DXO).
Global conditions are improving ; main problem ? Price zoomed up to fast.
"A" level is clear ; we now need a "B" level ; @ 40$ ? above $40 ?
Pay attention to that blue level you see on the chart ; we could bounce up there. That will incite me to buy the PowerShares DB Crude Oil Dble Long ETN (DXO)

Oracle (ORCL) Buys Sun (JAVA)

Oracle Buys Sun: "There are substantial long-term strategic customer advantages to Oracle owning two key Sun software assets: Java and Solaris. Java is one of the computer industry's best-known brands and most widely deployed technologies, and it is the most important software Oracle has ever acquired. Oracle Fusion Middleware, Oracle's fastest growing business, is built on top of Sun's Java language and software. Oracle can now ensure continued innovation and investment in Java technology for the benefit of customers and the Java community."

Adding shares of Citigroup Inc. (C) and Direxion Financial Bull 3X Shares (FAS)

Adding shares of Citigroup Inc. (C) and Direxion Financial Bull 3X Shares (FAS).
Bought FAS @ 7.20 $ ; will increase positions below 6$.
Bought C @ 3$ ; will increase positions below 2.50$ (if we get there)
Bought small positions of Citigroup a few days ago (did not use stop losses since positions where too small).
Holding period ? Over 4 weeks.
Warning, highly volatile ; buy on extreme oversold, sell on bounce up.

EUR 1Y Euribor (360 Day) up after sliding since Oct ?

The Euribor was up 0.40% today !

It has been sliding everyday since mid Oct !!!
Chart courtesy of Boursorama

Global Hedge Fund Assets Will Reach $2.6 Trillion by 2013, According to New Study by The Bank of New York Mellon and Casey Quirk

Global Hedge Fund Assets Will Reach $2.6 Trillion by 2013, According to New Study by The Bank of New York Mellon and Casey Quirk: "Hedge fund assets will bottom out at roughly $1 trillion in 2009, after which capital appreciation and $800 billion in net inflows over the next four years will push global levels to $2.6 trillion by 2013, according to a new study of institutional investors, investment consultants and hedge funds released today by The Bank of New York Mellon (NYSE:BK) and Casey, Quirk & Associates.

The study, entitled 'The Hedge Fund of Tomorrow: Building an Enduring Firm,' found that institutions remain firmly committed to hedge fund investing. Institutional investors comprised less than 20% of hedge fund redemptions in 2008-2009, and North American pension plans will represent the single largest source of new capital between 2010 and 2013, followed by British and Northern European institutions. Global high net worth investors could account for as much as 60% of new net flows between 2010 and 2013, although their return to hedge fund strategies will rely on capital market conditions and hedge fund performance."

British Pound, the mother of all reversals ?

I wrote several months ago that the British Pound index was way way oversold ....
Warning ; this is a weekly chart !
Ok, this is what I see ;
1) Weekly higher lows ; conditions are improving
2) Main resistance level (see yellow level on chart)
3) We need to remain ABOVE 1.4500 to confirm another higher lows !!
4) Main buy trigger would be a monthly close above 1.5000
Gut feeling ? This type of pattern (free falls) almost like a parabolic fall can either go right now into a long channel or a HUGE snap back upwards ....
Key question ? Is the UK economy improving ? The mess is not over, but its improving.
If we get above that 1.5000 level .... expect a huge run up

Germany Dax Index chart analysis

Pull back see in Europe this morning ; let's look at the Germany Dax Index ;
1) If you are long, raise your stop to the green level ; 4500
2) Uptrend intact ; higher lows pattern intact
3) 4700 is our main resistance (yellow level) + trendline from Nov 08

Dollar versus Russian Ruble chart analysis

Dollar versus Russian Ruble chart analysis
Quick facts here ;
1) Been bullish on the Dollar Ruble sinceAug 08 (see older posts)
2) Parabolic rise means price eventually snaps and enter a channel or a huge drop
3) The Dollar in this case will probably remain in a channel pattern
4) I doubt we shall see a rising Ruble soon
5) Go long Dollar again right above 34
6) Short below 33 (I really doubt the Ruble will rise)
Price leads, fundamentals follow ; stick to that trading plan
All signals still favour a Dollar bull

Trade the Dollar Ruble here

Dollar versus Israel Shekel chart analysis

Weekly chart of the Dollar versus Israel's Shekel ;
1) Uptrend is broken , do not attempt to "create multiple trendlines"
2) Main support is quite clear ; right above 4
3) Buy trigger is a weekly close above 4.2
4) Weekly MACD overbought ?
Gut feeling ? heading towards a channel pattern (sideways) could last several weeks.
Main Dollar Shekel outlook still favours the $USD Dollar
Trade the Dollar Shekel here

Forex analysis

The Dollar struck back at losses seen over the last 2 weeks to gain heavily after better than expected US data led some analysts to see the US coming out of the economic crisis before Japan and Europe. The FOMC minutes talked of more downside risks to the economy with the Fed cutting the GDP 2009-10 outlooks. The Euro was the main currency in the action last week with extreme weakness against some crosses underpinning the concern investors have with the EU. EUR/CAD and EUR/AUD dropped over 2.5% each as risk appetite improvement translated to gains in the commodity currencies. The EUR/USD fell -2.38% closing at 1.3168, after opening the week at 1.3482.The Japanese Yen had a choppy week with Year highs on Monday being given back as the Stock rally floundered and crosses led by the EUR/JPY drove lower. The BOJ met and held at 0.1% although the BOJ did widen the collateral accepted for lending. The USD/JPY gained 0.10% closing at 100.41 after opening at 100.31.The GBP fell back in sympathy with the EURO although remained buoyant and found interested buyers on dips as improvement in Risk sentiment supported the crosses. The GBP/USD fell -1.10% closing at 1.4679 after opening at 1.4841.The AUD was the main recipient of market improvements as commodities remained well supported and most Aussie crosses broke higher. The RBA cut by 0.25% and the Unemployment Rate jumped to 5.7% from 5.2% previously. The AUD/USD closed up 0.54% at 0.7191 after opening at 0.7150.
Brought to you by Easy Forex

Apple Inc. (AAPL) weekly chart analysis

Let's take a look at Apple Inc. (AAPL) 's weekly chart ;
Weekly patterns are often more "reliable" ; they remove the "noise"
What can we notice ;
1) Main channel ; ranges 80/90 to 100/110 ; what did it tell us ? Buyers where willing to buy around the 80/90 levels and sell right above 100
2) Price recently broke out of this main channel
3) Should we conclude that the worst is over and we are heading towards $200 again ? No.
4) Price increase was NOT followed by a huge volume increase (keep that in mind)
5) See that old support level now a major resistance ?
Gut feeling ? Conditions ARE improving but I expect to see the following scenario ;
Price pull back around the 117 levels ; we shall then see a higher support level (higher than the previous 100/110 level). Expecting an "up the stairs pattern".
Then ? when the SP 500 and other major markets start to zoom up, we should get a fast rising price, probably sending Apple Inc. (AAPL) into a parabolic rise.
Why a parabolic rise ? Apple Inc. (AAPL) is getting ready to impress us again.

Sugarcane Ethanol Already Meets California Low Carbon Fuel Standard, Says Brazilian Sugarcane Industry Association

Sugarcane Ethanol Already Meets California Low Carbon Fuel Standard, Says Brazilian Sugarcane Industry Association: "Sugarcane ethanol's carbon intensity is even lower than initially calculated by the California Air Resources Board (CARB), according to comments submitted today by the Brazilian Sugarcane Industry Association (UNICA). CARB is scheduled to vote on the first-of-its- kind Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) on April 23-24. The objective of the LCFS is to reduce by 10% the carbon intensity of all transportation fuels in California by 2020.

Sugarcane ethanol has a verifiable reduction in greenhouse gases of 90% compared to gasoline. Sugarcane ethanol will easily meet the LCFS, not just in 2020 but today

The Brazilian Sugarcane Industry Association (UNICA) represents the top producers of sugar and ethanol in the country's South-Central region, especially the state of Sao Paulo, which accounts for about 50% of the country's sugarcane harvest and 60% of total ethanol production. UNICA develops position papers, statistics and specific research in support of Brazil's sugar, ethanol and bioelectricity sectors. In 2008, Brazil produced an estimated 565 million metric tons of sugarcane, which yielded 31.3 million tons of sugar and 25.7 billion liters (6.8 billion gallons) of ethanol.

http://english.unica.com.br/

Australian Dollar index

Quick look at the Australian Dollar
1) Several months ago, I mentioned it was way oversold and was ready for a "pop" up.
2) Main resistance level is clear
3) See that Nov and March uptrend ? both trends where way "too steep"
Conclusion ? expect a pull back (slight), followed by a channel pattern (tight one)
Do not attempt to predict the next move ; trade the break out only.
See long / short entry levels on the charts

Case study, Nasdaq weekly chart

Case study ; Nasdaq weekly chart
1) Long term moving average (40 weeks) is our main resistance level
2) Recent uptrend (blue trend, see chart), way too steep ?
3) Pattern looks like a big "W", as as a "Double Bottom"
Gut feeling ? Expecting a "little pull back" ; we just need to be able to close "next week" above the 1600 levels

Euro Dollar HUGE crash on the way ?

If you have been reading this blog for a while, you'll notice that I am bullish on the $USD Dollar since last August.
We did see some huge retracements on the Euro .....
Scary looking parabolic rise that oftens makes you wonder if your chart reading is wrong.
Its not .... at least as long as the main pattern ; lower highs is intact.
Are you shorting the Euro ? You should again ....
Pay attention to that "stop loss level" see chart
Will increase leverage below 1.3000
Target ? 1.2600
Could I be wrong ? of course .....
Expect the unexpected .....
Gut feeling ? time to make some serious money here :)

About Hedge Funds ; We have allowed a regime where we have almost no disclosure

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Janet Yellen
"We have allowed a regime where we have almost no disclosure" of hedge funds activities, and it's likely that in the future, funds that are large enough to threaten the financial system need to be treated as systemically important and should be regulated in some fashion, she said.
Read the full story here on the WSJ

New IBM Study Highlights Exploding Demand for Smarter, Faster Rail Systems

New IBM Study Highlights Exploding Demand for Smarter, Faster Rail Systems: "According to a study released today by IBM (NYSE:IBM) , increasing demand on rail systems in the U.S. and around the world will dramatically strain existing rail infrastructure. The study, 'The Smarter Railroad,' analyzes new approaches to modernize and build high-speed rail networks globally, such as those announced today by President Obama.

Findings from the report indicate that the top key challenges in the development of better rail systems, cited by the world's leading global rail executives, were capacity and congestion; operational efficiency and reliability; structural and competitive issues; and safety and security. The report also highlights emerging technologies that will help rail companies better instrument, analyze and manage rail networks and equipment in real-time. The full report, 'The Smarter Railroad,' can be found here."

Richard Pryor, first African American president, got to watch that

Light crude oil chart analysis

Quick look at the light crude oil chart ;
The blue upper channel is our "main resistance level"
The latest pattern we see (triangle) is giving us a clear signal ;
A major move is about to take place.
Now, the 1 B$ question ...... up or down ???
Main pattern favours a BULL move
Price zoomed up from mid Feb to find resistance @ $55 (call this our "A" level)
We are right now facing a probable "B" level
"C" (is right above "A) ; meaning that a HUGE buy signal is right above $55
PS ; forget this scenario if we close below $47

Bought a few stocks

Citigroup Inc ( C ) ; buy, stop at 3.5 $

DIREXION ETF Financial Bull 3X ( FAS ) ; buy, stop at 8$

Alcoa Inc ( AA ) ; buy small positions, stop at 8.5$

Apple Computer Inc ( AAPL ) ; buy, stop at 118$

Shangai Stock Exchange, ABC pattern confirmed

I wrote a post about the Shangai Stock Exchange several weeks ago saying it was "our new leading indicator"
ABC pattern confirms this "new" bull market
"C" is clearly above "A"
"C" level is now our stop loss level (2400)

Yes, the recession is really over, watch copper prices

http://gicharts.blogspot.com/2009/03/copper-chart-update.html
On March 15, I published the following regarding Copper (see link above)

Now what ? expecting a sideway pattern , followed by another huge break out.
Take advantages of pull backs in Financials to add positions

Department of Justice Asks Court to Serve Summons for Offshore Records

Department of Justice Asks Court to Serve Summons for Offshore Records: "The information expected in response to the summons will help the IRS identify merchants who use offshore accounts to evade their United States tax liabilities. The petition alleges that the merchants have opened bank accounts in offshore jurisdictions and directed their payment card processor, in this instance First Data, to deposit the proceeds from their debit or credit card transactions directly into the offshore accounts."

Citigroup (C) Higher On Hedge Fund Short Squeeze ?

Many hedge funds simultaneously went long the preferred while shorting the hell out of the common stock, causing shares to collapse.
Read the full story here

Top 10 Tech Investments: Information Security Leads List, CIO Survey Shows

Top 10 Tech Investments: Information Security Leads List, CIO Survey Shows: "Despite a challenging economy, seven out of 10 chief information officers (CIOs) interviewed recently said their companies will invest in information technology (IT) initiatives in the next 12 months. Information security topped the list of projects executives expect their firms to invest in, with 43 percent of the response, followed by virtualization (28 percent) and data center efficiency (27 percent).

The survey was developed by Robert Half Technology, a leading provider of IT professionals on a project and full-time basis, and conducted by an independent research firm. It was based on telephone interviews with more than 1,400 CIOs from companies across the United States with 100 or more employees."

Deloitte Consumer Spending Index Retreats In March

Deloitte Consumer Spending Index Retreats In March: "The Index, comprising four components -- tax burden, initial unemployment claims, real wages and real home prices -- fell to 1.19 percent from an upwardly revised gain of 1.57 percent a month ago."

Las Vegas Sands (LVS) chart analysis

Quick look at the chart of Las Vegas Sands (LVS) ;
1) Pay attention to the ABC pattern in Jan 09
2) "C" level was the buy trigger ; reversed, then "A" level becomes your stop
3) Notice that the volume action confirmed the move ?
4) Right now, "C" is not yet clearly above "A"
5) Volume confirms price action
I use charts like a piece of art ;
Warning, news events and new fundamentals MUST confirm price action with VOLUME.
If that is not the case, move on, many charts out there worth looking at.

Google Inc. (GOOG), was that a huge fake move ?

Let's look at Google Inc. (GOOG) using the ABC pattern ;
1) Notice the volume decline ?
2) "C" level (buy signal) not yet activated
3) Decline in US search activity
4) First quarter earning will/could be weaker ?
5) Commercial search decline ?
6) Amount of advertisers cutting back their spending ?
Gut feeling ? stay out and wait for those numbers .....
Allow two days for investors to "digest those news"
If we close the week above $400 on huge volume, then I'll go long

Citigroup Inc. (C), the perfect ABC pattern ?

Quick chart analysis of Citigroup Inc. (C) ;
The perfect ABC pattern ?
We still need to "close" above "A" to trigger a "C" (Buy) signal
Gut feeling ? allow a pull back to occur first

Crude oil chart analysis

Light crude oil analysis ;
1) The resistance channel is quite clear (yellow channel on chart)
2) Pay attention to the "tight channel" ; a break out will happen SOON
3) Was this recent rise a "fake move" ? I doubt it
4) The good news ? Still in higher lows pattern
Gut feeling ? Global conditions are improving ; expecting crude oil to trade above $60 before June.

Standard & Poor's Publishes White Paper on Credit Rating Agency Business Models

Standard & Poor's Publishes White Paper on Credit Rating Agency Business Models: "Standard & Poor's today published a white paper examining investors' needs and how various business models for credit rating firms could meet them.

The paper, titled 'An Examination of How Investor Needs are Served by Various Ratings Business Models: Ensuring Analytical Independence and Freedom from Conflicts of Interest at Credit Rating Firms', examines the advantages and disadvantages of the issuer-fee, subscriber-fee and government utility business models for ratings firms."

Great financial videos you need to watch

http://www.academicearth.org/lectures/origins-of-financial-mess
Origin of Financial Mess

http://www.academicearth.org/lectures/technology-invention-finance
Technology, Invention and Finance

http://www.academicearth.org/lectures/russia-yesterday-today-and-tomorrow
Russia yesterday and Tomorrow

Claymore BRIC ETF (EEB)

Fundamental look at the Claymore BNY BRIC ETF (EEB) ;
Portfolio PE : 1.71
Portfolio Price / Book : 0.40
Earnings Growth ; 21%
Technical ? clear weekly channel ; the BRIC ETF (Brazil, Russia, India and China) now needs a huge volume increase and break out above 27.5$

Case study with the Kospi South Korea Seoul

Quick analysis of the Kospi South Korea Seoul ;
I often keep track of South Korea ; very reliable Asian market indicator
It is VERY IMPORTANT for you to "print the chart" of the stock / ETF you are planning to buy or sell short.
You need to be able to write/draw ;
1) A probable chart pattern scenario
2) News ; yes, imagine what kind of news might come out !
I use this technique after years of studying NLP
Learn this technique, and let me know your results in about 6 months

Market opinion

Great day today :)
The Euro (versus the Dollar) did reverse as expected (confirms lower highs pattern).
The SP 500 nows has the 100 days exp moving average as its resistance level.
Nasdaq chart looks good ; so do semiconductors.
Gold ETF (GLD) and Silver ETF (SLV) both have the 100 days exp MA as their resistance.
Direxion Financial Bull 3X Shares (FAS) zoomed up over 20%
Apple Inc. (AAPL) has an amazing uptrend

So why am I NOT buying today ?
Hype, never beleive the hype ....
Buy when you feel its right ...... and my intuition tells me to still stay out ....
I am glad to see (WFC) Wells Fargo "expect record profit" ......
I am waiting for monday .....
Patience, our time will come
Nice sunny day in Brussels today ; some tapas, and red wine feels just perfect now :)

General Electric Co. (GE), warning signal

Warning signal for General Electric Co. (GE) from the volume pattern !
Pay attention to the tight range (see chart) , clear resistance and support level.
Volume is about to BREAK OUT !!!!
Expect a huge sudden move !!!
Up or Down ???? Good question .....
Gut feeling ? We are not out of this mess yet ...... so I expect a fast sudden pull back, that will eventually create a clear higher lows pattern ....
PS : if GE gets back above 11.50$ ; I'll jump back in

Beer Industry Contributes Nearly $200 Billion to U.S. Economy

Beer Industry Contributes Nearly $200 Billion to U.S. Economy: "A new economic impact study shows America's beer industry, made up of brewers, beer importers, beer distributors, brewer suppliers and retailers, directly and indirectly contributes more than $198 billion annually to the U.S. economy. The study, commissioned by the Beer Institute and the National Beer Wholesalers Association (NBWA), also shows that the industry provides nearly 1.9 million jobs -- generating nearly $62 billion in wages and benefits. The industry also paid $41 billion in business, personal and consumption taxes in 2008."

Companies at Greatest Risk for Default

So what are the companies at the greatest risk for default according to Moody’s?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/29640663/

ABC pattern 101, case study using the United States Oil Fund ETF (USO)

Quick case study of the United States Oil Fund ETF (USO)
I often use this simple/basic trading pattern called the ABC set up (you can call it 123).
I am not a big fan of complex chart tools you often find ; Why ? Worked long enough in the Hedge Fund industry to see how many Phds in Math failed to design "great trading system".
You often find many companies selling so called "amazing trading systems" ; forget it, save your money and spend more time just starring at charts for several months/years, then you'll notice basic set ups.
What is the ABC set up ?
It occurs this way ;
1) Have a simple moving average you see that sticks to the stock, ETF, forex .... your are following.
2) A quick "burst" above that moving average tells you that "new info" just change the price pattern ; we have a clear information inbalance (usually you'll see a gap with it). That will create your level "A".
3) When the info is digested by the usual suspects (analysts, the press, the bloggers ....), the stock/ETF will pull back to find some support level ; call it "B"
4) New info comes in ; confirms the first good info ; so now the non beleivers are really convinced the info was for real, and by fear of missing the train, they jump in, usually right above the "A" level ; that is what I call "C" ; a break out !!! usually with increased volume.
Voilà ..... was that simple ? You just saved thousands of $$$ (by not buying useless softwares)

Microsoft Security Intelligence Report Shows Rogue Security Software a Top Threat to Internet Users

Microsoft Security Intelligence Report Shows Rogue Security Software a Top Threat to Internet Users: "Rogue security software, also known as 'scareware,' takes advantage of users' desire to keep their computers protected. The rogue software lures them into paying for protection that, unknown to them, is actually malware offering little or no real protection, and is often designed to steal personal information. The Microsoft Security Intelligence Report shows that such programs are now among the top threats around the world. For example, two rogue families, Win32/FakeXPA and Win32/FakeSecSen, were detected on more than 1.5 million computers by Microsoft software, catapulting them into the top 10 threats in the second half of the year. In addition, Win32/Renos, a threat that is used to deliver rogue security software, was detected on 4.4 million unique computers, an increase of 66.6 percent over the first half of 2008."

US Dollar chart analysis

Quick look at the US Dollar chart index ;
1) Main trendline (see red trend) served as an important support level again
2) Main buy trigger is that "blue line" (see chart)

SP 500 chart update

Quick look at today's market using the chart of the SP 500 ;
1) Pull was expected (see previous posts)
2) If we break that trendline, it would be our first warning signal
3) A break below that "support level" will/could cause a panic ....
Gut feeling ? I still feel that the best trades right now are buying extreme oversold levels and selling on "ANY" rally ....
You could have a better technique than me, but right now, it seems to work fine.
(PS stick to ETFs and high quality stocks such as Google and Apple.
Now what ? stay out ..... observe .....
Getting ready to get back into FAS and DXO .....

Monday's word on the street

The market was being driven higher with the help of big institutional investors who were forced to return to stocks after sitting out the start of the year. Anxiety about missing out on the rally has also spurred "panicky buying" by some investors.
Any weakness in U.S. company earnings, to be released in the coming weeks, or unexpected bleak economic data could quickly deflate confidence.
Read more here

How to make real money in 2009

IS there a good way to nail down a steady income? In this economy?
Try writing a successful program for the iPhone. Apple Inc. (AAPL)

The iPhone Gold Rush

There are now more than 25,000 programs, or applications, in the iPhone App Store.

Warning signal from the VIX

The VIX (Volatility index) tells me the following ;
1) The range it is in can NOT last ; it will burst
2) We "seem" to have less fear, but the real fundamental damage is far from over
3) A break below 35 will send the markets flying up
4) A move again above 42 will give us the pull back I am expecting in the SP 500

SP 500 chart analysis

Quick look at the chart of the SP 500 ;
1) The 850 level is now our real/main target
2) If you did buy, use the March low trend as your stop loss

The good news from the G20 is now probably old news ??? mmm
Reality on the ground is a different story .....
The markets will tell us very soon if that meeting was full of sh_t

Inside Sales (The Blindfold Exercise)

The Future of Advertising: Just Ask What Would Google Do?

Read the full article here ;
http://www.micropersuasion.com/2009/04/the-future-of-advertising.html

Jeff Jarvis' new book, What Would Google Do?, is a must-read and a real eye opener.

Apple Inc. (AAPL) probable chart scenario

Quick look at the weekly chart of Apple Inc. (AAPL) ;
1) Good weekly price rise with no volume increase ???? mmm
2) We need real higher lows first
3) Main resistance channel is quite clear
Do not expect a "sudden price rise" as if the bad news is over .....
Conditions are improving, and Apple Inc. (AAPL) 's chart pattern confirms that it "must" be on your stocks to own for the next 2 years (or more).
Probable scenario ? see green arrow on the chart
Real huge buy signal should occur after Oct

Google Inc. (GOOG) weekly chart analysis

Quick look at the weekly chart of Google Inc. (GOOG) ;
First, the rumor ....
TechCrunch proprietor Michael Arrington, said that Google would pay for Twitter in cash, stock or a combination of the two.
Is that good news for Google inc (GOOG) ; it is
How will the stock react if the story is true ?
mmmm that's the 1B $ question
The facts, just the facts ;
1) Go long (real strong buy) if we get above that resistance level (over $400)
2) Weekly pattern ; higher lows
Gut feeling ? that Feb high is our real signal .... if do not get above it by Tuesday, expect a pull back leading to a channel pattern

China Will Recover From Downturn by 2010, Survey of Top Marketers Suggests

China Will Recover From Downturn by 2010, Survey of Top Marketers Suggests: "China's economy will shake off the effects of the world economic downturn and return to a booming and vibrant state by 2010, a survey presented to one hundred multinational and Chinese company senior executives at The Marketing Group of China's (MGOC) second event in Shanghai revealed yesterday evening.

The group commissioned leading market research company, Millward Brown-ACSR, and a global communications agency, Hill & Knowlton, to interview 59 CMOs and senior marketing directors to gauge their attitudes on how they were responding to the crisis in China.

The data collected showed that a mood of cautious optimism exists in marketing departments, with 75% of those interviewed believing the economy would turn around by 2010. The respondents indicated that China would recover more quickly as it was experiencing the crisis in a different manner than the West, whose consumers had been affected on a more serious and fundamental level than Chinese consumers."

Twitter-Google deal ?

So, TechCrunch is spreading rumors and speculation about a Twitter-Google deal.

If you believe in the theory where there’s smoke, there’s fire, a deal may, in fact, be happening…or not given how TechCrunch is getting conflicting reports on the state of discussions between Twitter and Google.

Twitter-Google: The Conspiracy Theory

If you love wine, watch this ....

With his unconventional, often irreverent commentary on wine, Gary has attracted a cult-like following of more than 80,000 viewers a day.
http://tv.winelibrary.com/

Euro Yen chart analysis

Clean channel break out in the Euro Yen chart ;
If you are long, use 133 as your stop
Gut feeling ? we could "burst up" to 138 fast
Unless of course we are facing a "fake move ?"
I doubt it
Chart pattern looks pretty clear ; double channel break out

Euro Dollar chart update

Quick look at the Euro Dollar chart ;
1) I am expecting some "wild moves" in that pair "very soon"
2) My brain/logic tells me that the Euro zone will be in severe pain if the Euro rises !!!
3) I have to admit that the price is ALWAYS right for some weird reasons ....
4) Simple setting used = 20 days simple moving average
Trading plan ;
A) Go long (strong buy) above the "buy trigger level you see on that chart
B) Short hard below that short trigger level (see chart)
Brain/logic versus price action mmmm unless there are some real stats out there I do not know about ???