Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Dow Jones Transportation Average

Comparing those two indexes ; Dow (The Dow), and the Dow Transports
(Basic Dow Theory)
The good news ? Dow Transport did bounce up on its "B" level (ABC pattern)
What do we need to see ? Price rising fast towards 3400, and breaking out .....
I would turn really bullish .....

Coca-Cola Co. (KO), have a coke and a smile

Quick look at Coca-Cola Co. (KO) ;
1) Pay attention to the volume/price pattern
2) ABC pattern fully activated
3) "C" level is our stop loss now

The Next Google (GOOG) ?

Seth Godin wrote a great article regarding Bing (new search engine from Microsoft)
"The challenge for Microsoft is that there already is a next Google. It's called Google."

Thailand Set Index chart analysis

Quick look at the Thailand Set Index ;
1) Great fundamentals ; cheap compared to other surrounding nations
2) ABC pattern intact ; raise stop to 540
3) Latest pattern indicates a probable "overbought condition"
Expect a pull back into a channel pattern

Baltic Dry Index update

Baltic Dry Index compared to the SP 500 and Light Crude Oil ;
Ever since I got involved in the shipping industry (raising capital for a German shipping firm), I have been keeping an eye on this very "RELIABLE" leading indicator.
The indicator is now "overbought" ; price spread with the 20 days EMA is too high.
Expecting a pull back

Silver ETF (SLV), ABC pattern break out

The ishares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) has a "perfect" ABC pattern break out.
Place your stop tight @ $15

Daily opinion

Quick look at these three "usual suspects" ;

Euro Dollar, Oil, & Gold

I am "only" holding to my Apple inc (AAPL) shares.

Sitting on the side, waiting for "something to SNAP"

It does not feel right ...... hate to fight my intuition .....

Euro, Oil and Gold rising ??? mmmmm SP 500 stuck in a tight channel ???

Stay out ......... for the moment .....

I hate two things ; hype and bubbles :)

Past warning triggers on the Dollar index

On April 24, I published this post on the $USD Dollar
(see chart above)
The post said the following ;
1) Pay attention to the warning triggers
2) Pay attention to gold and oil

AngloGold Ashanti Ltd (AU), perfect set up

Anglogold Ashanti Ltd (AU) ; perfect chart set up ?
Volume pattern and the ABC pattern right on target.
If you plan to enter at those levels ; use "C" as your stop loss

United States natural gas fund ETF (UNG), the perfect ABC pattern ?

Let's take a quick look at the United States Natural Gas Fund ETF (UNG) ;
1) "A" level is clear ; price zooms up from early May
2) Pull back to "B" ; Notice that "B" has to be higher than the low of May
3) VOLUME ......... did you notice that as well ?
Gut feeling ;
Use the break out above the 50 days SMA to enter a single position ; add positions above
$16, be fully invested above "C"

SP 500 Versus the VIX indicator

Quick look at the SP 500 and the Vix indicator ;
1) Main trend in the SP 500 (blue trend) is broken
2) Lower highs pattern is intact (SP 500)
3) Clear support is @ 880
Now the Vix ; Oversold ?
Clear resistance level
Pattern ; higher lows ....potential reversal ??
Gut feeling ?
Like I said in a previous post ..... I do not Beleive this recent "HYPE" .....
I kept my Apple Inc. (AAPL) shares ; otherwise mostly in cash.

Hedge fund giant Man Group

Microsoft's New Search at Bing.com Helps People Make Better Decisions

Microsoft's New Search at Bing.com Helps People Make Better Decisions: "Microsoft Corp. today unveiled Bing, a new Decision Engine and consumer brand, providing customers with a first step in moving beyond search to help make faster, more informed decisions. Bing is specifically designed to build on the benefits of today's search engines but begins to move beyond this experience with a new approach to user experience and intuitive tools to help customers make better decisions, focusing initially on four key vertical areas: making a purchase decision, planning a trip, researching a health condition or finding a local business. The result of this new approach is an important beginning for a new and more powerful kind of search service, which Microsoft is calling a Decision Engine"
http://www.bing.com

The Dollar, something feels wrong

Chart on top is a close up of the $USD Dollar index ; chart on the bottom compares a weekly chart of the SP 500 and the $USD Dollar index ;
1) Mid July 08 break out in the $USD Dollar was a leading indicator that the SP 500 index was close to a bottom
2) Then ? The Dollar served as a "refuge" for a while (example ; Russian Ruble)
3) If the $USD heads lower (below 80), I expect to see a major pull back in US equities ......
Gut feeling now ;
Why does it "feels" wrong ...... conditions seem to be improving ..... unless we are not getting the real datas .....
The Dollar index chart (see upper chart) seems to have a typical ABC pattern (in reverse), with a last candle as a "warning" signal.
Why is the Euro trending higher ????
Once more fooled by "fake moves" ???
Ok ; trading plan ; FOCUS ON THE $USD DOLLAR
A monthly close below 80 will cause a major damage

Direxion Financial Bull 3X Shares (FAS), SOLD

Sold all my shares of Direxion Financial Bull 3X Shares (FAS).
Why ?
Reversal seen in the SP 500
Gain was pretty good....booking profits
Was hoping for a nice spike up ...... oh well ......

Direxion Financial Bull 3X Shares (FAS), how do I chart it ?

Quick look at the chart of Direxion Financial Bull 3X Shares (FAS) ;
By the way, I am still holding it ; quite happy to have bought it on several sell offs .....
Now, how do you "CHART" this amazing volatile beast ????
You don't really ..... you set your entry "levels" according to the chart of the Russel 1000 Financial Services index (see chart below)
Now ; where am I planning to sell ?
According to the $RIFIN ; target is 675 ; corresponds to a "spike up" to around 12$ in FAS.
Can it go higher than 12$ ?
Sure, but my plan is to sell on strengh (no matter what)
Rule 1 ; Stick to your plan
Rule 2 ; If you do not have a "plan" ; you should not be trading

Apple Inc. (AAPL), perfect set up

Perfect set up in Apple Inc. (AAPL)'s chart ;
1) Perfect ABC pattern
2) Level "B" is now VERY clear
3) "C" ; our huge buy signal (right above 132.5$)
What do we need on that break out above "C" ? Huge volume increase

Huge move in Copper on the way ?

Quick look at the chart of Copper ;
1) After this fast price rise from Dec 08 to mid April 09, Copper faced an important resistance @ 220.
2) Latest pattern confirms a "tight" channel with lower highs versus higher lows ; Meaning ? Expect a major break out.
Gut feeling ; global demand is improving but experience teaches me that whatever goes up to fast needs to retrace ....
A pull back was "expected"
No, I am "not" bearish

Simon Property Group Inc. (SPG)

Simon Property Group Inc. (SPG)
Simon Property Group, Inc., a real estate investment trust (REIT), engages in the ownership, development, and management of retail real estate properties. Its real estate properties consist primarily of regional malls, Premium Outlet centers, The Mills, and community/lifestyle centers.

PE : 25

Yield : 5%

Market Cap : 12.3 B

Revenue : 3.81 B

With this recent article in the WSJ about how the recession turns malls into ghost towns,
the fact that the trailing PE is still pretty high, high market cap / revenue , low yield (for such risk) ; and a clear 50 to 55 $ resistance level ; I expect to see a pull back in SPG (not a crash), but a channel pattern until we get "improved fundamentals" around Dec 09

Was the US Dollar saved by an important support level ?

Quick look at the weekly chart of the $USD Dollar index ;
1) Was it saved by this "very important support level ?"
2) The "79 to 80" level has been of real importance in Dec 08, and acted as an important resistance level in Sept and Oct 08.
3) We have seen a lot of fake moves in the Euro Dollar ; was that recent move up from the Euro another "fake move" ?

Dollar versus Russian Ruble chart analysis

Quick look at the weekly chart of the Dollar versus the Russian Ruble.
The bullish break out started around Aug 08
The Dollar then went straight into a parabolic rise
In my last post of the Dollar Ruble rate ; I mention the fact that 33 was our real support.
We broke that support ; and since then, the Dollar has been reversing against most currencies, Russia's RTS index has been rising fast, and crude oil went zooming higher.
Now what ; what is the next target ?
Gut feeling ? 29
Warning, we are way way oversold .......
Expect a snap up before going lower ...

Dollar versus Israel Shekel analysis

US Dollar versus Israel's Shekel chart analysis ;
1) Support is now broken (see chart)
2) Consider a reverse ABC pattern
3) Allow a retracement up (Dollar could be oversold)
4) Present level could be our "A" level
5) Allow "B" to form right around our old support (now resistance)
Possible target ; 3.7 ? mmmm, not so fast ....

Currency Trading Summary

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 25th May (00:30GMT)

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) with the market still in sell dollar mode the major EUR/USD level at 1.400 was tested for the first time since January. Quiet stocks kept the market focused on the AAA rating story that is responsible for much of the Dollar weakness. Crude Oil finished up $0.62 at $61.67. In US share markets, the Nasdaq was down 3 points or -0.19% and the Dow Jones was down -14 points or -0.18%. Looking ahead, Bank Holiday in the US and UK today.

The Euro (EUR) the break above 1.4000 was relatively calm with the market not ready to push further without extra stimulus. The move higher was aggressive during the week and could be in store for consolidation if the AAA story fades from view. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3885 and a high of .1.4051 before closing at 1.4011. Looking ahead, German IFO Business climate forecast at 85.5 vs. 83.9 previously.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) found solid support under 94 Yen before rebounding as the crosses led the pair higher. EUR/JPY closed above the 200 DMA at 130.80. GBP/JPY was also well supported above 150 Yen. The BOJ met and held at 0.1% but did upgrade the economic outlook for the first time in 3 years. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 93.87 and a high of 94.92 before closing the day around 94.20 in the New York session. Looking ahead, BOJ Monthly Report.

The Sterling (GBP) traded close to 1.6000 but failed to challenge the level as concerns about UK debt rating and the public holiday on Monday kept the pair contained. EUR/GBP failed to make new lows as the Euro found resurgent strength. GBP/AUD also consolidated gains above the 2.03 as the pair rebounds from below 2.00. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5757 and a high of 1.5945 before closing the day at 1.5920 in the New York session.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) traded comfortable above the 0.7800 level although equity weakness stopped the pair holding the gains into the weekend. USD weakness is competing with cautious return of risk aversion. Ongoing bullish commodities are helping to underpin the AUD rally. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7773 and a high of 0.7870 before closing the US session at 0.7820.

Gold (XAU) made small gains tracking Oil but failed to convincingly hold the $960 level. Overall trading with a low of USD$950 and high of USD$962 before ending the New York session at USD$957 an ounce.

Trade Forex with me HERE

Weekly opinion

Yes, still holding my Direxion Financial Bull 3X Shares (FAS).
Did I buy more ? No ; expecting to see a nice bounce up next week, and waiting for a spike up.
What else am I focusing on ? The Euro Dollar ; that break out will probably send the Euro "spiking" up next week ?
Got many emails asking me for a price target .........
Does the past reflect the future ? Maybe, maybe not ........
Dec 08 reached 1.4700 ; is that our next target ?
Just keep in mind that the Euro fooled us already, so expect the unexpected.
Basically ; stay long (Euro)
SP 500 ; main support right at 880.
Light crude oil ; raise stop @ $60 ; next move ? a break out above soon above 62$ ? (Focus on DXO).
Australian Dollar ; mentioned it several times in past posts ; go long and stay long.
British Pound ; stay long
CAC 40 (France index) ; Huge buy signal if we get back above 3300.
What else am I looking at ? Big blue chips, like Coca Cola (KO) ; focus on the global exporters :)

Welcoming a new financial blog

http://www.emergingindex.com
From my friend Vlada, in the Czech Republic

Gold chart analysis

Quick Gold chart analysis ;
1) Falling $USD leading Gold higher
2) Higher lows pattern intact
3) Trigger (in green is now our real support)
4) Quick resistance @ 960 (from mid March)
5) Next target ? 1000 ?
Typical ABC pattern ? Seems like it
Raise stop to 930

Forex ; Euro Dollar chart analysis update

Quick update for the Euro Dollar chart since last post ; break out @ 1.3700 did confirm the pattern reversal "lower highs now canceled".
Raising stop to 1.3850
Now what ? Probably a spike up due to late players not wanting to "miss the train".
Reversal possible ? Of course ..... we can be fooled by randomness again ....
PS ; avoid investing in European big export brands ..... (L'Oreal, LVMH, etc ....)

Forex ; British Pound index

Bullish signal on the British pound index still intact (higher lows)
(See past posts in the blog search concerning the bullish reversal)
But guess what ?
S&P announced that it had changed its outlook for the U.K.'s credit rating to negative; meaning that a downgrade could come .......
And the Pound keeps on going up ?
News priced in ?

Apple Inc. (AAPL) chart analysis

Quick look at Apple Inc. (AAPL) ;
1) Focus on level "B" ; now our clear stop loss
2) Declining volume
3) Resistance @ 130$
Gut feeling ; this declining volume means you should expect a "burst" ; a volume break out.
Good news for Apple Inc. (AAPL) ? Yes and No.
Hope to see that volume break out soon ; we need a confirmed higher low ("B" is our low).
Could price re test the "B" level ? It could .....
Focusing on that stop loss ....
PS ; Still VERY bullish mid/long term.

On my radar screen ; India Globalization Capital (IGC)

India Globalization Capital's Mining & Materials Segment Completes Preparation Needed to Export Iron Ore: "India Globalization Capital (IGC), a company competing in the rapidly growing infrastructure industry in India, announced that its first shipping hub is ready to export iron ore from mines in India to customers worldwide, and that it has initiated supply contracts with Chinese Companies.

India Globalization Capital has expanded its business model from heavy construction and road building to include a Mining and Materials business segment.
IGC is the only Indian infrastructure company listed and trading in the United States.
http://www.indiaglobalcap.com

I am "NOT" a buyer yet of this stock ; busy following it and reading everything I can about them
Indian infrastructure ? Yes, probably a good bet ........

Euro Dollar ; Fooled by Randomness

Did you read the book " Fooled by Randomness" by Nassim Nicholas Taleb ?
You should ....
Or should I say ; "always expect the unexpected ?"
The recent move down by the Euro (versus the Dollar) made me beleive that that double top was a real resistance ; and since price did not get above that previous high of mid March ; the main pattern was still bearish for the Euro.
Now what ????
People the pattern has "CHANGED" ; go long on the Euro
That break out above 1.3700 has "changed the main pattern"
I could argue that it makes no business sense having a strong Euro right now ; European exporters will suffer ; but hey ; it also means that more countries are willing to "adopt" the Euro has a second reserve, and more European countries (non Euro based) are willing to shift into that currency.
Now pay attention to our new stop loss ..... (you never know)
Price leads, comments (from the press) will come later.
Target ? if price breaks out above 1.3900 ; expect a huge spike up.
But something bothers me here ..... crude oil is down ......
Gold did not break out .... yet .....
Indeed ; fooled by randomness

Napoleon Hill talks about his meeting with Andrew Carnegie

Stocks with ABC patterns

To understand the ABC pattern , see the explanation on the top right hand side of the blog.

"C" is our REAL strong entry level, right above "A"
When price closes above "C" ; it then becomes our stop loss.

Apple Inc. (AAPL) ; "B" is ocnfimed (see previous posts) ; we now need a close above the very recent high.
AMD (AMD) ; "C" is right above 4.65
Du Pont (DD) ; strong buy right above 29
Dell (DELL) ; strong buy right above 12.35
General Electric ( GE ) ; perfect ABC pattern ; "C" is right above 14.90
IBM (IBM) "C" is right above 106.5
Intel corp (INTC) ; Pattern not complete yet ; "C" is right above 16.70
Coca-Cola Co. (KO) ; "C" is 100% activated ; BUY, BUY, BUY

Special case ; Starbucks Corp. (SBUX) ; almost perfect pattern :)
Stop loss is right at $12 (50 days exp moving average)
Multiple ABC pattern with clear higher lows.

On my radar screen this morning

Good morning from sunny Brussels :)
Chilly but sunny, and it might actually rain later on ..... oh well ....
What am I focusing on ?
Direxion Financial Bull 3X Shares (FAS) ; I could end up selling it today on strengh.
Buying on extreme sell off was the right thing to do ; buying it at several levels was also the right thing to do since FAS is a real beast, hard to master. Huge volatility, so hard to catch a proper entry level. In the end its all about the short/mid term vision I have regarding the markets.
Financials are improving ; so basically buying on the dip is "in" right now.

You often see me posting "simple charts" ; keep it simple ; why ? After 18 years in this industry, I'll give you one single tip ; The internet has changed the way I trade.
Many years ago, I started looking just at fundamentals ; then charts made me beleive that I found the holy grail ; then came the crazy idea of changing settings all the time ; then came the beleive that the RSI was better ; then the beleif that the MACD combined with the ROC was "it" .... blablabla .....
Listen people ; with today's information age ; we all have access to quick infos. FREE.
Stop waisting your $$ on expensive softwares .......
Keep it simple.
News do matter ; news with high volume with gaps and price move matter a LOT.
Tip number 2 ; Focus on a few items (ETFs, Forex or Stocks). Do not "discover a new stock everyday".

Back to the markets ; India jumped higher ; Great , now lets see if they really allow us to enter their economy ...... did you know that it is "almost" impossible for us to access their markets ?
While they come over to the EU and the US "as they wish" ????
That "has to change".

What am I up to these days ?
1) Raising cash for a shipping company via a private placement (9% yield)
2) Raising cash for a huge real estate project in Senegal (West Africa)
3) Promoting various real estate projects in Brussels

British Pound index

On April 20, I posted the following on the British Pound index
Calling it the "mother of all reversals" ???
As long as we remain above 1.5000 ; stay long .....
Expected scenario ?
Another channel pattern trading higher than 1.5200 (range 1.5200 to 1.5600)
Do not expect a "V" shape pattern ......
Trade the Pound here

Light Crude oil chart

Let's take a look at the light crude oil
Basic chart pattern using a 50 days simple moving average.
ABC pattern tells us the following ;
1) "C" level is now our stop loss
2) Oil needs to remain above "C" otherwise it will target the 50 days moving average.
Main pattern (long channel break out) and higher lows confirm bullish outlook.

PowerShares QQQ Trust Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ)

Quick look at the PowerShares QQQ Trust Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ) ;
Settings used ; 200 days Exp MA
1) Old resistance is now our clear support level $32
2) Friday's price high was blocked by the moving average (resistance)
3) We now need a "B" level (ABC pattern) ; will it be @ 32 ?
4) "A" is quite clear ; $35.5
5) "C" stands @ $36
Gut feeling ? Expecting a sideway trade before moving higher.

China will lead us out of recession

China Green Agriculture, Inc. (CGA)

I am "watching" this stock right now ; China Green Agriculture, Inc. (CGA).
No need to publish the chart (it looks very good)
China Green Agriculture, Inc. engages in the research, development, manufacture, and distribution of humic acid organic liquid compound fertilizers in the provinces in China. Humic acid is a natural, organic ingredient for a balanced, fertile soil, and the primary constituents of organic matter. The company produces approximately 119 fertilizer products. It markets its fertilizer products to private wholesalers and retailers of agricultural farm products.
http://www.cgagri.com
Trading plan ?
Patience, allow a pull back to occur to trade the "next" break out.

Google Inc. (GOOG), buy signal intact, stop at 375

ABC pattern (see tutorial on the blog)
"C" activated (buy signal activated)
Warning ; this is a weekly chart of Google Inc. (GOOG)
Stop loss stands at $375
Main weekly pattern is clear higher lows, with "C" right above "A"

Revealing New Report on Monetizing Social Media Predicts Everyone Will Be Profitable Except Facebook

Revealing New Report on Monetizing Social Media Predicts Everyone Will Be Profitable Except Facebook: "A revealing new report on monetizing social media predicts everyone but facebook stands to make money under the current business structure of leading social networks. The study, the latest from ContentNext Media, Inc. and authored by renowned analyst Lauren Rich Fine, compares the top social network to a local mall, suggesting 'it might be time to start charging rent' to be on the platform, as mobile carriers already do.

As things stand, 'there's a real danger that application developers who use the facebook platform will become quite profitable while the host corporation will not,' says Fine. 'Advertising on social nets will never be commensurate with the amount of time people spend on them. And facebook has made several failed attempts at innovative marketing efforts that members loudly rejected.'"

Global ETFs and Indexes analysis

Simple settings used ; 2 Exp moving averages crossover with basic chart patterns.

Russia ETF (RSX) ; buy signal still intact since mid March ; way overbought and pull back in oil prices could send it down to re test the $18 levels.

China 25 index (FXI) ; main support stands @ $33. Pattern still looks good.

Shangai Stock Exchange Index ; perfect uptrend, a little overbought, but still intact.

Kospi, South Korea Seoul index ; uptrend intact since mid March ; facing heavy resistance @ 1425 levels (call this your "A" level), expecting a sideway trade next week.

Thailand Set index ; huge parabolic rise after the political turmoil ; expect a "snap" ; price is way overbought , raise stop to 510 levels ; fundamentally ; very very cheap.

Brazil ETF (EWZ) ; Uptrend s intact ; heavy resistance @ $52 (call that our "A" level), main support level @ 46$ (hope that will be our "B") in the ABC pattern

India ETN (INP) ; uptrend intact ; tight channel pattern (38 to 41) ; playing the break out seems logical, but index is way overbought ........ patience ......

Japan ETF (EWJ) ; not playing it these days ; not convinced Japan is really out of this mess. Demographics (lots of older citizens) do not play in their favour, not willing to "import" new young immigrants ..... society way too closed up .... not understanding global changes ..... it will turn against them. Prefer to invest in Malaysia or Vietnam than Japan.

Forex, Euro Dollar, fake move confirmed

As mentioned several days ago, my fear of a "fake move" in the Euro Dollar is now confirmed.
I wrote that 1.3550 was our "short trigger".
Guess what ? Long term pattern of lower highs still intact .......
Next target ? See chart
The Economist has a great article HERE

Baltic Dry Index, our new leading indicator ?

Is the Baltic Dry Index our new leading indicator ?
It seems to work fine , use the Shangai Stock Market index as well.
The world has changed ..........

Google Inc. (GOOG) and IBM (IBM)

The two most successful technology companies in the world, IBM (IBM) and Google (GOOG) have announced major new products.
IBM released "stream computing" applications that allow businesses to look at and analyze huge amounts of data in real time.
Read the full story on TIME

Gold chart long term analysis

I have been looking at many old long term chart patterns recently.
Gold spot price caught my attention.
This pattern tells me the following ;
1) After a huge parabolic rise, Gold faced a mini crash, followed by a fast price rise to test the recent highs. (Double top ?)
2) The recent price rise created a trendline that was "too steep" ; meaning ? A pull back/sideway trade was expected.
3) We could read this as a typical ABC pattern where "B" stands at 860
4) The pattern is basically telling you to go long with "B" as your real stop loss, and "A" (our target) is at 1000, and "C" is right above 1000
So why did I draw that blue arrow (see chart with "most probable scenario) ???
Fundamentals do not confirm the "green arrow"
Gold demand has slowed down (big time)
Gut feeling ?
Expecting a HUGE reversal in Gold prices ........... lets call it a "crash"
Trigger ? a close below "B" ; right below 860

General Electric Co. (GE)

Yes, if you recall this older GE (GE) post HERE
I bought at that particular bottom ..... how do you call that ? Pure luck.
Well luck combined with common sense (read the oder post)
Now what ?
See that ABC pattern ?
General Electric Co. (GE) now has a clear support/resistance level
If you plan to buy now, use "B" as your stop loss
Real huge buy signal ? Right above "A"

Apple Inc. (AAPL), time to buy again ?

Time to buy Apple Inc. (AAPL) again ?
1) Yes, if you use the "C" level as your stop
2) Next quick target is "A"
Gut feeling ? Expect a sideway trade .....
PS : very bullish long term .... but we need Mr Market (and other global markets) to rise up again.

SP 500 Chart analysis

Quick look at the SP 500 chart ;
Pay attention to three things ;
1) Support level 860 to 880
2) 20 days simple MA
3) 50 days exp MA
Main trendline (from low of March to beggining of May) is broken, so pay attention to the moving averages you tend to use for entry/exit levels.
Bullish pattern is intact ; so do not go out there and start to short ETFs ....
Pull back "was needed" ; we need more improved fundamentals to confirm price rise.
Gut feeling ?
We shall enter a sideway pattern (always hard to trade since you basically wait for a clear break out). We might see some more "left over bad news" coming out these days ; those news are already "priced in".
Lot of big funds have missed the rally ; they are probably waiting for "confirmation".
What am I focusing on right now ?
Financials
Energy
Agricultural
US Blue Chips (Global Brands)
Brazil
China & Taiwan
Australia

Direxion Financial Bull 3X Shares (FAS), multiple buy levels

Pay attention to the "multiple buy levels " on Direxion Financial Bull 3X Shares (FAS).
As mentioned in a previous post, it is very volatile ; do not attempt to "find the perfect entry" level. Buy step buy step on "multiple sell off".
How do I proceed ?
Imagine your allocation to FAS is $10,000 ;
Postion one is $2000
Wait for a sell off , then buy another position
Hoping to maybe see a spike down at 7$ or lower ....... :)
Then what ? Once your allocation to FAS is filled ; do not "add" more money.

European Commission Decision on Intel Statement by Boston University Law Professor Keith N. Hylton

European Commission Decision on Intel Statement by Boston University Law Professor Keith N. Hylton: "'The EC decision to impose the largest fine in its history on Intel (INTC), largely for its price cutting, sends a worrisome signal to dominant firms in the U.S. Antitrust law in the U.S. has largely abandoned the idea that consumers can be made better off by punishing firms that cut prices aggressively,' said Professor Hylton. 'Punishing large firms for cutting prices provides a strong incentive for those firms to avoid price competition, and this hurts consumers in the long run. Recognizing this, U.S. antitrust law has in effect provided a safe harbor from antitrust liability for large firms that cut prices when selling to U.S. consumers. The EC decision on Intel effectively destroys that safe harbor once the firms start selling their goods on the global market.'"

Direxion Financial Bull 3X Shares (FAS)

Adding one more position of Direxion Financial Bull 3X Shares (FAS)
Bought @ 8.87$
Will add again right below 8.50$
Hope to get some @ 8$ :)

Euro Dollar chart analysis

Quick look at the Euro Dollar chart ;
1) Get ready for a "major move"
2) Key question ; another fake move ?
3) Pay attention to those "key trigger levels"
A) Short ; right below 1.3550
B) Long ; right above 1.3700
4) Today's candle reversal could signal .......
Wait for the price action, then act

United States natural gas fund ETF (UNG)

Nice clean break out in the United States natural gas fund ETF (UNG) ;
1) Stop is at $16.5
2) 18$ is our clear resistance ; a break above it will send us flying upwards
3) Buy, sell on extreme overbought (will keep you posted)

Apple Inc. (AAPL), entry level

As mentioned a few days ago, it was time to SELL Apple Inc. (AAPL).
Short Apple Inc. (AAPL) ?
Now way ; never short a stock with improved fundamentals.
I see Apple Inc. (AAPL) Iphones everywhere .... was at the Conrad Hotel in downtown Brussels for meetings and at the table right next to us was three ladies (over 50 years old) playing with their new Iphones and showing each other their applications they downloaded .....
Mmmmm Grandmas are buying Iphones ?????
Senior Geeks ???
Ok, back to Apple Inc. (AAPL) trading plan
1) We need to see a "B" level (as in the ABC pattern) ; "B" level will occur with increased volume, more good news, and probably some "high impact news" ..... :)
2) "C" our huge buy trigger is quite clear ; its right above "A"
3) I am VERY VERY bullish on Apple Inc. (AAPL) long term

Direxion Financial Bull 3X Shares (FAS), buying right now

Buying a small position of Direxion Financial Bull 3X Shares (FAS) @ 9.31$.
As mention in my last post ; will increase position if/when it goes below 9$.
Will love to now see a spike down around 8.50$.

Direxion Financial Bull 3X Shares (FAS) trading plan

Quick look at the Direxion Financial Bull 3X Shares (FAS) ;
1) I sold last week (see past posts)
2) Market was overbought, and was kind of hoping for this pull back ....
3) Warning ; FAS is "HIGHLY volatile"
4) There are NO perfect entry level
5) How will I buy FAS ?
A) I am hoping for another low to buy a small position at first
B) Hoping another extreme oversold .......
C) Really hoping for a "low spike" .....
Gut feeling ?
Direxion Financial Bull 3X Shares (FAS) "WILL" trend up again ..... if you are a long term investor, no worries, do a Dollar cost average purchase

No Economic Recovery in Sight, Only Inflation ?

No Economic Recovery in Sight, Only Inflation: "The National Inflation Association yesterday released the following statement to its http://inflation.us/ members:

'Wall Street would like you to believe that the Dow Jones' recent 33% rally from March's low is due to improving economic fundamentals, but it is our belief this rally is due to nothing but inflation.

'Jobs data released on Friday shows that U.S. employers cut 539,000 jobs in April, the fewest since October. However, these numbers were artificially strong due to the U.S. government increasing their payrolls by 72,000, which included the hiring of about 60,000 temporary workers in preparation for the 2010 census.

'Government jobs are non-productive jobs that normally get paid for by taxpayers. However, because the U.S. already has a huge budget deficit with tax revenues likely to decline substantially, these jobs will be paid for through inflation. An increase in government jobs is not a sign that the economy is improving, but only a sign that we are digging our economy into a deeper hole that will ultimately lead to the U.S. dollar collapsing."

Forex, Euro versus exotic currencies

Euro versus Thailand Baht ; One year pattern ; lower highs intact ; political situation in Thailand did not cause a "Baht crash" ; next support @ 46.
A break below 46 will send us down to 44.

Euro versus Turkish Lira ; one year pattern confirms bullish Euro uptrend , if the Euro remains above 2.11 for the next 5 days, we could see a quick rise to recent high around 2.38

Euro versus Israel Shekel ; 6 months pattern give us a highly probable double top pattern ; 5.45 is our clear support level ; main pattern still favours the Euro.

Weekly opinion

I often get the same questions by email ; what is your price target ?
Facts ;
1) I cannot read the future ........
2) My gut feeling are based on fundamentals, news, and price action
3) I make an educated guess using "probable scenarios"
4) I write down the scenarios using latest infos to see if my "educated guess was right or wrong.
5) Having an opinion is ok ; writing it down forces you to think ........
Regarding Oil ; educated guess tells me we can/could reach 75 by Dec 2009.
British Pound ; as mentioned before ; time to own some Pounds and build a position little by little.
Australian Dollar ; as mentioned before ; you need it (wrote about it several times).
Bullish on Australia ; commodities are Baaaaaack :)
Shipping ? Demand is rising again ; we might face again the same problem as before ; not enough ships .......
Most market indexes ? expecting a pull back ........ we really need to see some higher lows, followed by improved fundamentals .....
What books should you read ? none .....
There are enough high quality financial blogs out there that will teach you what you need ; FREE.
Spend one year reading quality blogs and you'll do OK.
Paper trade ....... failing is OK ; its part of the game :)
Take notes, show them to someone, do not hide your mistakes, learn from them.
No, do not become 100% chartist ; read the quality news sources (Bloomberg, Reuters, CNN, and others), read the well know weekly magazines (Businessweek, Economist .....).
Price action with no news and volume is like going to Vegas
PS ; Remember to have fun doing "other things"

US Dollar trading plan

To understand the concept of the ABC pattern, please look at the right hand side of the blog to understand how the pattern works.
1) "C" failed in Mid March (fake move)
2) The Dollar went down hard and fast and found support at "A"
3) Investors where "convinced" it was a buy on the dip opportunity and pushed the Dollar up towards 87 ; after a reveral at that level on bad US economic news, the Dollar went diving again and "did not find support at "A" ; it just broke that support and "C" was activated
Question ;
1) Is this a fake short trigger ?
2) Will the Euro keep on rising knowing that our exports are "dead" ????
Gut feeling here ;
1) Not convinced yet that the Dollar is heading for a crash "unless oil prices zoom up and anticipate a huge problem ......"
2) 90% of Emerging nations (Not China, India, and Brazil) are still facing a huge crisis and will need the Dollar as a refuge currency.
3) With Toyotas latest numbers, expecting the BOJ to fool around with the Yen and "make it slide"
4) We now need the ECB to wake up and understand that a higher Euro will cause more damages

Apple Inc. (AAPL) trading plan

Main trading plan for Apple Inc. (AAPL) next week ;
First ; what is that funny indicator ?
Its called the PPO ; I use it to combine two exponential moving averages crossover (5&50) , its the black line you see above and below the "0" level ; call it my personal MACD.
It often warns me of potential reversals .......
Trend is now broken and Apple Inc. (AAPL) is stuck in a tight channel.
Would I short right below 125 ??? No
Why not ? NEVER short a stock with improved fundamentals
Apple Inc. (AAPL) will face a pull back, it will allow us to re enter at a better price and again sell on overbought conditions
"Buy on the dip"

SP 500 weekly chart analysis, should you SELL ?

Quick look at the SP 500 weekly chart ;
1) Price has been rising for several weeks non stop
2) Resistance level is quite clear
3) 40 weeks moving average is still "pointing down"
Gut feeling ?
I am expecting a pull back ; we need a clear higher lows pattern
Lets face it ; do you really think we are out of this long term mess ???
Nope
Conditions are improving ; and buying on the extreme oversold condition (see past posts) was the right think to do since the "market" was really cheap"
Book your profits
Wait for more "improved fundamentals" to buy again

Forex weekly trading summary

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 8th May (00:30GMT)

· U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) came under pressure against riskier currencies as investors bought the Euro after milder than expected Quantitative easing measures from the ECB Thursday. Weekly Jobless Claims beat forecasts for the second week at 601K vs. 635K forecast. Crude Oil was down $0.11 ending the New York session at $56.33 per barrel. In US share markets, the Nasdaq was down 42 points or -2.44% and the Dow Jones was down 102 points or -1.2%. Looking ahead, Non-Farm Payrolls Forecast at -590K vs. -663K previously with the Unemployment Rate jumping to 8.9% vs. 8.5%.

· The Euro (EUR) was range bound while the market awaited the ECB Rate Decision. The decision to cut by 0.25% was widely expected and attention now turns to the press conference. The announcement of new measures was discounted as not true Quantitative Easing and the market bought the Euro aggressively to test highs above 1.3400. Weakness in US stocks towards the end of the day prompted mild profit taking. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3250 and a high of 1.3475 before closing at 1.3390. Looking ahead, March Industrial Output is forecast at -1.5% vs.-2.9% previously.

· The Japanese Yen (JPY) was sold from the opening as the Nikkei surged over 3% in a catch up move for the 3 days missed earlier in the week. USD/JPY broke above 99 in Europe. Most of the crosses enjoyed gains led by the AUD/JPY. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 98.39 and a high of 99.80 before closing the day around 99.15 in the New York session. Looking ahead, BOJ meeting minutes released.

· The Sterling (GBP) was very well supported in Asia but this changed in Europe as the BOE surprised the market by expanding their Quant Easing program from 75 to 125 Billion Pounds. The Pound slide hard and continued to be under pressure in the US session as equity losses mounted. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.4942 and a high of 1.5199 before closing the day at 1.5035 in the New York session. Looking ahead, PPI Core forecast at 0.1% vs. 0.2% previously.

· The Australian Dollar (AUD) had another very strong day on the back of April Unemployment data. Unemployment Change was forecast at -25K but came in at a surprisingly strong +27K. The Unemployment rate dropped to 5.4% vs. 5.9% forecast. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7457 and a high of 0.7618 before closing the US session at 0.7530. Looking ahead, RBA Quarterly Monetary Policy Statement.

Follow my trades here

General Electric Co. (GE), time to take profit

This old post on General Electric Co. (GE) was published on March 4 .......
Quick look at the chart of General Electric Co. (GE) ;
1) Several fake bullish moves
2) Spread with 50 days moving average is high (oversold)
3) Huge volume = capitulation ???
Lets look at other facts ;
Revenue = 181 B
Market Cap = 74 B !
PE : 4 !!!!
Yield = 14% ???? unless they decide like others to cut it ....
Enterprise value = 565 B !!!

Conclusion ; it smells like a bargain, it feels like a bargain .... it is a bargain ????
What worries me is their finance department ..... how bad is it ?

Buy signal is a weekly close above $8
Otherwise, let it slide .....

Sell Bank Of America Corp ( BAC )

Selling my shares of Bank Of America Corp ( BAC ) ; great uptrend, taking profit.
Will re enter later again

Euro Dollar bullish reversal confirmed ?

A few days ago I posted a comment on the Euro Dollar that I could "reverse" my opinion".
Now what ? Another fake move ?
I see three things ;
1) Higher lows
2) Pay attention that the "ABC" pattern
3) "C" is in fact our real bullish signal
Did I go long ? No .......... not yet .........
What am I waiting for ? A few more days to confirm that it is NOT again a fake move

Bank Of America Corp ( BAC ), perfect ABC pattern

Perfect ABC pattern in Bank Of America Corp ( BAC ) ;
"C" ; is now our stop loss level

Light crude oil break out

We now have a confirmed light crude oil break out ;
Focus on PowerShares DB Crude Oil Dble Long ETN (DXO)
ABC pattern confirmed
"C" is now our stop loss level