Great business model

Great business model ; made in Thailand :)
Corns on the BBQ .......
Fruit juices ; fresh, mangos, pineapples ....
Car rentals ......
Cost ? None ....
High profits ....
No stress .....

US Dollar chart index buy signal ?

$USD Dollar chart index ;
1) Another fake move ?
2) 80 levels is clearly our real support level
3) ABC pattern reversal ???
Gut feeling ? We could face a bullish reversal (pay attention to Oil and Gold)
buy signal is right above 81 ; strong buy signal right above "C" ; 82
Meaning ? If that scenario takes place, expect a strong pull back in Gold and Oil ?
Unless of course history means nothing ........
Always expect the unexpected .....

Shangai Stock Exchange Index pull back ?

This is a WEEKLY chart of the Shangai Stock Exchange Index ;
The first ABC pattern in April 2009 confirmed a bullish reversal
Are we now facing a level "A" ?
See the ABC pattern FAQ on your right hand side
Gut feeling ? That uptrend has lasted way too long ....
Expect a pull back to "B" (2750)

Nasdaq chart analysis

Just a quick reminder that the main trend (in blue on the chart) is broken ; why ? the lowest low connects the highest low, prior to the highest high.
Do not draw trendlines "everywhere" .......
1) The Nasdaq has a clear resistance level
2) Raise stop to 1800 if you bought (via an ETF)
Gut feeling ? Expecting a sideway trade, not the type of pattern I like to trade until we get a clear break out. Stay out.

Investing in Thailand

Amazing investments opportunities in Thailand ; Bangkok, Koh Samui, Hua Hin (for golf players).
Prices start at 50,000 Euros (Koh Samui special offers) ; yield is over 7% (via rentals)
Feel free to contact me for more infos

Light crude oil chart update

Quick analysis of light crude oil ;
1) The initial trend was broken ; oil did rise too fast, broke out of this trend and went into a sideway pattern.
2) The main key is to find a "confirmed" support ; we did find one
3) The next obvious target is to break out of this key resistance @ $73 ....
What to focus on ;
PowerShares DB Crude Oil Dble Long ETN (DXO) ; huge buy signal above $4.6

Apple Inc. (AAPL) and the ABC pattern

Quick example of the ABC pattern with Apple Inc. (AAPL)

Market update

Greetings from Sunny Bangkok ;
Sold my shares ; Citi (loss), Akamai, and Apple.
Quick trade, not willing to HOLD anything at the moment ...
What am I watching right now ; Qantas Airways said it had canceled orders for 15 Boeing 787 Dreamliners and delayed the delivery of a further 15 aircraft due to turbulent market conditions.
Ok, who else will declare the same thing ???
I am still focusing on the same USUAL Suspects ; Oil, Gold, and the $USD Dollar.
Gut feeling ? Book your profits.
It does NOT feel right .....yet .........

Shopping for bargain stocks

Bought small positions in the following stocks ;
Apple Inc. (AAPL)
Citigroup Inc. (C)
Akamai Technologies Inc. (AKAM)
Why ? Gap convinced me to enter and buy a small position, using the low of yesterday as my stop loss level.
Greetings from Asia where I DO NOT see business improving ........
So use your stops .......

Direxion Financial Bull 3X Shares (FAS)

Hoping to buy again the Direxion Financial Bull 3X Shares (FAS).
Bought and sold a few shares a few days ago.
Hoping to see a spike down below $7.5 ; would then proceed to buy a small position, then increase shares around $ 7.2 (if we get there)
Strong buy (position allocation fully invested) if we get below $6.5
Greetings from Bangkok :)
Sunny and humid, but GREAT FOOD :)

Keeping up to date with Twitter

Greetings from hot and sunny Thailand and Singapore
Keeping up to date via Twitter ; you can see the updates on the right hand site f the blog.
Oil reversal ? Focus on DTO
FAS ; bought some and quickly sold, why ? am not able to face a screen (too many meetings) ; so prefer to book some small profits.

Business trip to Asia

Leaving tommorrow for a few Asian cities.
As I am writing this, the Euro, Gold, and Light Crude Oil are "pulling back".
I will take a break from blogging for the next "two weeks" unless of course something really big happens ; I doubt it :).

20 Year Treasury Bond (TLT)

Weekly chart of the 20 Year Treasury Bond (TLT) ;
1) Notice the huge weekly volume ?
2) Notice the candle reversal ?
3) Right on support
4) Strong buy right above $92.5 (weekly close)
PS : watch the $USD Dollar

US Dollar index

Pay attention to that possible ABC pattern in the $USD Dollar ;
1) Main trend was "broken" at "A"
2) Is "B" confirmed ? Use "B" as the "last support"
3) Clear buy signal is @ "C"
Gut feeling ? Oil and Gold reversal see Gold ETF (GLD) confirm this "bounce up in the Dollar.
My brain is focusing on my business trip to Asia .......
Confirming meetings, planning etc ......

United States natural gas fund ETF (UNG)

Weekly chart of the United States natural gas fund ETF (UNG) ;
1) This weekly volume increase is AMAZING
2) Buy Gas and go away ? Looks like it ....
3) Triangle pattern ; expect a "violent" break out" ..... add positions above $15
4) Huge buy position is right above $17.5
Gut feeling ? Looks like a perfect ABC pattern ?

Platts Survey: May OPEC Oil Output Rose to 28.39 Million Barrels Per Day

Platts Survey: May OPEC Oil Output Rose to 28.39 Million Barrels Per Day: "The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) increased crude oil production by 300,000 barrels per day (b/d) to 28.39 million b/d in May, according to a just-released Platts survey of OPEC members, oil industry officials and analysts. This is an increase from 28.09 million b/d in April.

Production had already risen in April for the first time since August 2008. According to the May production estimate OPEC-11 (those bound by production quotas) is at only 72% compliance with its 4.2 million b/d in crude output cuts agreed late last year. This is down from 78.7% compliance in April and 81.8% in March."

"With the recent increases in crude oil prices, the drumbeat that we're on our way back to $100-per-barrel-oil has been growing louder," said John Kingston, Platts global director of oil. "But this month's surge in output shows that OPEC has a lot of productive capacity that it can bring on the market relatively quickly, and that should certainly prove a hurdle to any move back to three-digit oil prices."

The SP 500 and the Dollar index

If you have been reading this blog , you know that I am expecting a "pull back".
I am not "shorting anything" ; just staying out.
Pay attention to the SP 500 vis à vis the $USD Dollar index
1) The Dollar acts as a typical "leading indicator"
2) Pay attention to the "80" levels on the Dollar index
Gut feeling ? Global equities are now OVERBOUGHT, stay out.
Wait for fundamentals to improve ; do you see companies hiring ? I don't.
Do you hear companies talking about "improving conditions" ? I don't.
Do NOT BELEIVE the hype

Apple Inc. (AAPL) and the ABC pattern

Quick case study of Apple Inc. (AAPL) and the ABC pattern ;
1) Notice that right now we need a "B" level ; followed by higher lows.
2) Price rise with increased volume and good news is "always needed".
3) This pattern is VERY reliable when seing a GVN condition (Gap, Volume, & News).
4) After a break out above "C" ; "C" becomes your reliable stop loss level

Daily market opinion

I am "out" of the markets right now.
Still expecting a pull back leading to a sideway pattern.
I prefer to "stick to my plan" ; I usually make mistakes when I do NOT stick to my plan :)
Oil is trending up again this morning the only thing that worries me is a "FAKE MOVE" ; so use stops when buying the usual suspects ; USO, XLE, DXO and oil related countries.
Really busy planning my trip to Asia
I'll probably do another painting this weekend ; had an idea in mind, the Statue of Liberty (in black) with a red backround ; with a title ; "Yes we did" :)
Will post it here when its done :)

Apple Inc. (AAPL) to 400 ?

Quick look at Apple Inc (AAPL)
1) Buy the rumor , sell on the news ???
2) I sold my Apple shares (a few days ago)
3) See that rising volume on a candle reversal ?
4) Focus on that blue trendline, corresponds to our main support/stop loss level (135)
Gut feeling ; We shall enter a sideway pattern (channel) ; 135 to 147.
Hard to trade ..... so focus on break outs on huge/increase volume (and Gaps).
My old target on Apple was over 220$ .........
With emerging markets turning up, and oil rich countries (BRIC nations) collecting more money, I expect to see Apple inc (AAPL) rise to $400 (split ajusted) within 24 months.
Call me crazy, I am used to it :)
Traveling to Asia soon (several cities) ; will pay attention if people are using an iphone :)
Besides the BRIC nations ; fast growing emerging markets are "rushing to buy them" ; ie Turkey, Mexico, Indonesia, and Eastern Europe.
Lower price iphones ? mmmm we might soon see Apple behave like an internet stock from the 90's
PS : Notice how the media talks about Apple all the time ?

Brazil Index ETF (EWZ), focus on oil countries

Focusing on "oil related countries"
The Brazil Index ETF (EWZ) from ishares MSCI ;
1) Raise stop to $54 (corresponds to that pink trendline from low of March)
2) $58 is our HUGE break out level
Gut feeling ; yes, money is flowing to oil related countries once again (global demand is picking up) , so focus on the usual suspects ie ; the BRIC nations.
I am still expecting a sideway trade "before" we move higher.

Russia ETF (RSX), focus on oil countries

Focus on "Oil related countries"
Quick look at the Russia ETF (RSX) from Market Vectors ;
1) Raise stop loss level to $22
2) Add positions above $24
Gut feeling ; Price did rise too fast, so sideway trade was expected , the next break out could be HUGE (probably up)

Light crude oil HUGE signal ?

Light crude oil HUGE signal on the way ?
1) Weekly chart
2) Notice the tendancy to form "parabolic rises" (meaning ? do not expect regular trends).
3) Notice the 70$ to 75$ level ??? If Oil closes above 75$ by June 15th, we could face another parabolic rise to ....... (wild guess $95 by Dec 09)
4) Cancel this scenario if oil reverses below 65$ by mid June (I doubt it).
Gut feeling ; we keep on forming a channel for several days ..... then price breaks out ..... signal could be really strong ......
Item to focus on ? DXO ; Powershares DB Crude Oil Dble Long (DXO)

US Dollar index chart analysis

Quick look at the US Dollar index ;
1) Main trend (in red) corresponds to the 20 days simple moving average
(I am NOT a big fan of trend lines unless they are "MAJOR" trends ....... I often see traders drawing too many trend lines .....that have NO value ..... use moving averages)
2) Pay attention to those Long & Short triggers.
Gut feeling ? Ok, it was clear we where OVERSOLD ....... but pay attention to crude Oil and Gold, they will dictate the direction of the US Dollar.

British Pound index

Quick look at the British Pound index ;
Its now getting "political" ; will Gordon Brown go ???
It does not matter if he stays or goes ..... really, the Pound is baaaack.
This news event is an excuse to see a normal pull back ......
The Pound did rise too fast ...... it now needs to enter a channel trade.
Pay attention to those "long" & "short" trigger
Could the Pound go below 1.5400 ? I doubt it .......
Gut feeling ? We enter a channel pattern, then trend higher (we need higher lows).

Euro Dollar chart analysis

As mentioned in a post before, the Dollar was way "oversold".
The Euro Dollar chart analysis :
1) Pattern still bullish for the Euro
2) Trend indicator is your basic 20 days simple moving average
3) Pay attention to the Long (re enter) and Short trigger level

The Baltic Dry Index chart update

On May 30, I wrote the following post regarding the Baltic Dry Index.
http://gicharts.blogspot.com/2009/05/baltic-dry-index-update.html
The indicator did pull back, leading to a "flat channel" in the SP 500.
Being involved in "shipping finance" now (soon going to several Asian cities), I still expect to
see that indicator pull back to the 3500 levels.
Basically ; expecting a pull back in equities, leading to "flat channels in most indexes".

BSE India Bombay Sensex 30 Index

Weekly chart of the BSE India Bombay Sensex 30 Index (compared to the SP 500).
1) India is now flooded with $1 bn per week
2) At this rate, its the mother of all financial stimuli
3) n April, foreign institution poured $1.3 billion into Indian equities. They poured another $1.87 billion in the first half of May, before the election result. For May as a whole, the inflow was $4.14 billion, or a billion a week.

Buy Asian and go away ?

Using your basic 200 days exp moving average ; comparing buy signals (long term signals) between the SP 500 and several Asian Indexes/ETFs
The Thailand Set Index, Shangai Index, Taiwan and the Hong Kong ETFs MUST be in your portfolio.
Yes, I do expect a global pull back ; use it to "buy on the dip" ; buy Asian and go away :)

2009-2025 Canadian Crude Oil Forecast and Market Outlook

2009-2025 Canadian Crude Oil Forecast and Market Outlook: "The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) today released its 2009 crude oil production forecast and markets and pipelines outlook.

Earlier this year CAPP conducted a survey of producers to determine planned production of oil through 2025. CAPP used this data along with other inputs to prepare its annual forecast, which this year provides both a Growth Case and an Operating & In Construction Case.

'CAPP's Production Forecast indicates that even with delays due to current economic circumstances, oil sands production is expected to grow, although the pace of development has slowed,' said Greg Stringham, CAPP's Vice-President, Markets and Oil Sands. 'Producers expect continued demand for the security of supply that crude oil from Canada provides to the North American energy market.'"

Euro Dollar , Gold and Crude Oil

Quick look at the Euro Dollar chart ;
1) We have seen several "spikes up", also called parabolic rises since Dec 08
2) After those parabolic rises, we still ended up in higher lows
3) Are we now facing another parabolic rise ?
Gut feeling ; I "always write down" a probable scenario (call it intuition based on recent news, price patterns, events, economic stats ..... blablabla)
I see the following ; Dollar is oversold, Oil rise went up too fast, Gold is facing some real resistance while not rising against most currencies ..... mmmm
Gold stop stands @ 960
Cruse oil stop stands @ 65
Cancel this scenario if Gold closes above 990 and Oil closes above 69
Otherwise, probability favours a pull back in the Euro (see chart)

Dow Jones Transportation Average failed signal

Chart of the Dow Jones Transportation Average ;
1) As mentioned a few days ago, would have turned bullish if both the Dow and the Transports where "breaking out" ; signal failed, and transports still remain in a lower highs pattern.
2) 200 days exp MA is our clear resistance level
3) Support is quite clear (see chart)
Gut feeling ; Its actually good news for VERY PATIENT traders ; Why ? Your entry/short signals are quite clear :)
Wait for a clear break out (above 3400) to go long.
Otherwise ? Stay out, we need more improved fundamentals
Price does lead ; but if fundamentals do not follow, expect a price reversal

SP 500 Warning

Quick look at the SP 500 chart
1) Right on the 200 days Exp MA
2) Raise stop to 930 (high of early May)
PS : Sitting on 100% cash right now

Sold my shares of Apple Inc. (AAPL)

Sold my shares of Apple Inc. (AAPL)
Am I bearish ? No, just do not like steep uptrends ....
Do not trust this recent hype/fast price rise
Combo of Gold, Oil and the Euro does not "inspire me" .....
Scenario I expect ? see red arrow on the chart.
Could Apple shares rises up now ? Sure ..... I just like to "Book" my profits.
Sitting on 100% cash .....

Citigroup (C) and GM (GM) out of the Dow ?

NEW YORK (June 1, 2009) -Two stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average will be replaced, Dow Jones & Company announced.

The Travelers Companies, Inc. (TRV) is taking the place of Citigroup, Inc. (C) and Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) is going in for General Motors Corp. (GM). Both changes are effective with the opening of trading on June 8, 2009.

"The parlous state of GM has left us with no choice but to remove it from The Dow. A bankruptcy filing immediately disqualifies a stock regardless of a company's history or its role as a cultural icon," said Robert Thomson, managing editor of The Wall Street Journal and editor-in-chief for all of Dow Jones. "We were reluctant to remove Citigroup at the height of the financial frenzy, but it is clear that the bank is in the midst of a substantial restructuring which will see the government with a large and ongoing stake. We genuinely hope that once the bank has refashioned itself that we will again be able to consider it for inclusion - Citigroup is a renowned institution, not only in this country, but around the world."

For more information, see the web site of Dow Jones Indexes at http://www.djaverages.com. The Dow Jones Transportation Average, Dow Jones Utility Average and Dow Jones Composite Average also are members of the Dow Jones Averages family.

Trip to Asia and Shipping Finance

Busy preparing my trip to Asia (concerning shipping finance).
Been focusing on a lot of listed companies in that sector ; from the Barges, Tankers, LPG/LNG, Containers, to Drybulk.
Paying also attention to the Baltic Dry Index (see previous posts)
And of course focusing on commodities that use those transports ;
Agri Business
Coal
Oil & Gas

Concerning the markets ; expecting a spike up, followed by a healthy pull back.
Just holding to Apple.
Euro Dollar ; another spike up and then a sudden reverse ????