Case study, Conseco inc. (CNO)

Lets do a chart case study of Conseco inc (CNO)
We have a clear case of an ABC pattern (see FAQ on the top right side of the blog)
Now ; lets use those numbers on the chart to track what happened ;
1) Clear base pattern ; small break out on increased volume (ABC pattern)
2) Resistance channel ; some wait for more improved fundamentals before heading higher.
3) Break out on good news with high volume (another typical ABC pattern)
4) Overbought condition, sends price spiking up, gap and huge reversal (profit tacking)
5) Price finds support around 1.75$ (our new "B" ; within a bigger ABC pattern)
6) Great news, huge volume, now gives us a real resistance level
7) Sell off , price heads back to confirm vaildity of "B" our support level
8) GVN condition ; Gap with huge Volume and great News event
Gut feeling ; resistance found @ 6 is still valid ; wait for some profit tacking then proceed to buy shares as Conseco (CNO) closes above 2.60$
Real long term buy signal with safety ? Right above "C" ; around $3.50

Case study, Intel Corp ( INTC )

Quick case study of Intel Corp ( INTC ) ;
1) Pay attention to the "up the stairs pattern" ; it should dictate the next probable scenario.
2) Latest move, we did see a GVN condition (Gap, Volume & News) ; these kind of actions (GVN) are pretty reliable since volume (huge increase) does confirm the importance of a new fundamental event ; it creates a gap that can eventually serve as a stop loss level.
3) Raise stop to 18.5$ (if you are a trader) ; long term investor , holding is fine right now.
4) Next move ? another channel pattern ? probably

Market feels like a Pop Quiz Math Clock ?

This lovely new timepiece appears to have been hand-written by that evil math teacher we all had to endure. Each hour is marked by a simple math problem. Solve it and solve the riddle of time.
Source : http://www.thinkgeek.com/homeoffice/lights/ac3f/
This clock reminds me that the market often sends us "WEIRD" messages (formulas) ; that we are not capable of solving .......
C'est la vie .....

Short Master ?

Short Master Cartoon

The Basics of Shorting Stock

I own 10 shares of company ABC at $50 per share. You believe the stock price of ABC is grossly overvalued and is going to crash sometime soon. You are so convinced that the stock will crash, you come to me, and ask to borrow my ten shares of ABC and sell them at the current market price for $50. I agree to lend you my shares as long as you pay me back ten shares of ABC at some point in the future. You take the ten borrowed shares, sell them for $500 and pocket the money (10 shares x $50 per share = $500).
Source : About.com

BSE India Bombay Sensex 30 Index

Update for the BSE India Bombay Sensex 30 Index ;
15,500 was a "real resistance level"
Possible double top pattern ?
Place your stop @ 14,500
As mentioned in a previous post ; the Shangai index was way way overbought (in a parabolic rise), a pull back could cause the all region to retrace ......

France CAC 40 Index chart analysis

Weekly chart analysis of France's CAC 40 index (Weekly)
1) The bears are still there ..... lower highs pattern intact
2) Pay attention to that main trigger level (we need a clear weekly close above 3400.
3) Higher lows pattern (main reversal pattern)
Some see an inverted head and shoulder pattern (very bullish) ; I just see one thing ; failure to close "very soon" above 3400 could cause some serious damage
Like they say in France ; à bon entendeur .........

Light Crude Oil reversal ?

Are we facing a reversal in crude oil ?
Too early to tell, but that support level (ex resistance) @ $66 is quite "important".
A sudden break below that support level (specially a weekly close) coul confirm that this rise was "just" a retracement ?
Keep in mind that a $USD bullish reversal could cause a pull back in crude oil.

Great looking gap patterns

Tenet Healthcare (THC)
Masco (MAS)
Virgin mobile (VM)
Health Mgmt (HMA)
Fresh Del Monte (FDP)
Make sure the gap has a huge increase in volume ;

Proshares Ultrashort China ETF (FXP), time to short China ?

Pay attention to the Proshares Ultrashort China ETF (FXP) ; the inverse of the long China ETF (FXI).
First buy trigger is right above $10
Main buy trigger is right above $11

On my radar screen

1) Yes, I keep on repeating it ; the $USD Dollar ; my eyes are glued to it. Why ? Besides trading Light crude oil, the biggest move could/might come from the Dollar (huge drop, reversal, you name it). Trading Forex is not easy ; your eyes are glued not only on the chart but on the news flow where you need to quickly figure out if it plays in your scenario or not.
Blogging or updating Twitter is like keeping a diary ...... actually that is why I started to blog many years ago (first on Geocities) ; having people "watch" over me reminds me faster when I screw up or not :)

2) Asian indices keep on rising ......... I hate those "parabolic patterns" ; watch out for China (Shangai index) cannot go to the moon.
3) India Bombay Sensex index is near a perfect ABC trigger pattern ; but watch China, any reversal will cause a probable double top in the Sensex (India)
4) How come Gold is NOT zooming up with so much fear in the $USD Dollar ????
Keep that in your mind ......... Gold should have zoomed up ........ it did not ....... why ???
Ok, you fear a Dollar collapse (media talks about it) ; so how come real assets do not zoom up ?

Gut feeling ? Expect the unexpected ............
Euro Dollar ; everyone and his cousins see a break out above 1.4300 zooming up to 1.4600.
Possible fake move ?
Dollar could reverse up again and surprise us ?

Do you notice that I never say ; "I am convinced" ?
I am not ........
I use gut feeling ........ and fear of loss keeps me changing my scenario all the time
Adapt, adapt, adapt

PowerShares QQQ (QQQQ)

Let's take a quick look at the Powershares QQQ (QQQQ) ; Nasdaq 100 ETF ;
1) Pattern ; typical up the stairs ; price jumps up, finds resistance, creates a base (channel), breaks out of that channel on improved fundamentals, zooms up to next resistance etc .....
2) I am out in cash ; why ? I hate seing uptrend that are too "steep"
3) I buy when I feel its right "for me"
4) Buying the dip in an uptrend is "the name of the game right now for the Q's"
5) See that main trend (in red) ? Use it as your last stop loss level

10 Year Treasury Note Yield

Chart of the 10 Year Treasury Note Yield
Pay attention to it this week since the U.S. prepares to sell $115 billion of notes.
Watch the $USD Dollar ..........
Typical ABC pattern

Bull Market Cartoon

In a Bull Market, the Bull always ends up dead .........

Euro Dollar chart update

Forex traders have their eyes glued on the 1.4300 trigger level in the Euro Dollar.
We have seen several "FAKE" moves in the past regarding the Euro Dollar ; but this pattern could be different .....
Why ? Pay attention to the size of the channel
In my experience, the longer the channel ; the more important is the break out.
So focus on crude oil and gold ; and of course the $USD Dollar index.
PS : Expect the unexpected
Think short term

PowerShares DB Crude Oil Dble Long ETN (DXO)

Using the chart of light crude oil to trade the PowerShares DB Crude Oil Dble Long ETN (DXO).
"C" level in DXO is right above 4.8$
"B" stands @ 3.4$
Now back to crude oil ; raise your stop to $67
I do NOT expect a fast run up above the $73 levels (Our "C" level in crude oil)
Focus on the $USD
To understand the ABC pattern, take a look on the top right hand side of the blog

Spartech Corp. (SEH), on my radar

When a stock goes from $1.5 (mid March) to 11.5$ ....... it gets on my radar screen.
Next move ? To find out what is Spartech all about ?
Why is it moving up ?
Is it a sector move or a single company move ?
After reading their web site, I got attracted to their "new products"
http://www.spartech.com/new-products.html
Then I check out their latest news ;

Spartech Corporation (www.spartech.com), a leader in the development and design of green packaging materials, has answered the demand for an eco-friendly, sustainable replacement for PVC with UltrosRenu™.

“UltrosRenu™ products are a “drop in” PVC replacement solution, produced with the industry’s highest quality recycled PETG materials,” said Jonathan Cage, Director of Packaging Development. “This product performs with excellent trimming qualities and impact properties. And, with no additional tooling or equipment costs, it also delivers a material yield advantage over PVC.”

The UltrosRenu™ product line is designed for blister packaging, clamshells, display boxes and containers in the non-food, consumer, electronics and warehouse club packaging and industrial products markets. It contains pre-consumer content, is RF, bar and tear and heat sealable.

“As the packaging industry is increasingly challenged to produce environmentally friendlier products, Spartech is at the forefront with a wide array of PVC alternatives to meet a broad spectrum of packaging needs. Together, UltrosRenu™ and our EnviroSeal™ line provide a competitively priced, polyester material for every sealing process on the market today.”

Google Inc. (GOOG) weekly chart

Pay attention to that key resistance level (old important support level) for Google Inc. (GOOG).
My ABC pattern spots a real entry level right above $450
A being the $450 level almost reached in June
B, the typical pull back is right @ $400
PS : warning, the markets are now way overbought ; expect some fake moves.

My son Ilan in an add for a pasta brand called Miracoli in Belgium

Drawing brings good luck ?

First cartoon on my tablet PC ; funny that when I go painting (or drawing cartoons) the market zooms up ......

Global ETF signals

Russia ETF (RSX) ; raise stop to 20.50$ ; clear resistance @ 22$
China Xinhua 25 (FXI) ; raise stop to 39$ ; clear resistance @ 41$
Brazil ETF (EWZ) ; raise stop to 54$ ; clear resistance @ 56.5$
Japan ETF (EWJ) ; quadruple top break out ? huge entry above 9.6$ ; raise stop to 9.4$

Vix, volatility index is way oversold

Weekly chart of the VIX (volatility index)
Pay attention to it ; we are WAY oversold ....
Expecting a reversal in equities

Dow Jones Industrial Average

Weekly chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average ;
1) Parabolic fall (yes, we do get them, not just parabolic rises) ; also ends up in an extreme level (in this case an oversold condition), reversal usually causes a huge volume increase (weekly).
2) We are now facing a clear resistance level
3) We could be seing a typical ABC pattern , with "C" being right above 9000
Let me tell you how an ABC pattern looks like that you can fully trust ;
Price of XYZ company has been in a channel pattern for a while ; suddenly a great "fundamental news comes out" ; price jumps up (with a gap) on huge volume increase, zooms up, creates "A", reverses to find "B" where more "GREAT fundamental news confirm the first bullish events.
What do we see here today ?
Some improved news .......
More people out of work ......
A very OVERSOLD VIX indicator ......
Gut feeling ; do not think like a long term investor ; did you make some money ? Book your profits, wait for a pull back, and buy on the dip.
Pattern I am expecting ? A channel that will eventually be broken upwards around Nov.
Main fear ? Commercial real estate

PowerShares DB Crude Oil Dble Long ETN (DXO)

How to trade the Powershares DB Crude Oil Dble Long ETN (DXO) ;
1) Use the light crude oil chart for entry/exit levels
2) ABC pattern ; we now have a clear "B" level (support @ 3.2 to 3.4 channel)
The main resistance level for crude oil (look at a separate chart) is $66 to $67.
Wait for a clear break out above 67$

Weekly opinion

Its often nice to be "out of the markets".
Check my Twitter updates on the right hand side (I update it more often than my blog).
It allows you to take a rest, have fun, play with the kids .......etc ......
Make sure you take the time to "play with your kids" ; they grow up fast, then the next thing you know they'll be going to University, and you'll be left alone (your wife probably will walk out too).
Trust me, the markets will be fine "without you".
Buy when you feel its right, get out when you "feel" its time to book profits.
I get a lot of emails asking me why am I selling now ?
Well ; in these kind of markets, I prefer to sell on strengh ; walk out, and wait patiently.
We are in a "trader's market" ; that's my opinion.
You could however make some decent money using typical trend tools (such as exp moving averages).
Let's take a look at some of them (using the SP 500 index)
1) 50 days exp ; your buy signal started in mid March, several fake moves, but you still made some decent money. I prefer to use those shorter moving averages for global ETFs such as RSX (Russia) or FXI (China).
2) 100 days exp moving averages ; using that averages on crude oil worked quite fine ; specially on the bullish reversal I mentioned a few days ago.
Asia (specially China and India) are pulling us "out" of the recession (it seems) ; but those markets are now WAY overbought.
I look at charts around 10 PM (Brussels time) ; I print the ones I am focusing on ;
The usual suspects ; The Dollar index, Euro Dollar, SP 500, Crude Oil, FAS, AAPL, UNG, DXO.

Euro Dollar ; another fake move up ? Resistance @ 1.4300 ; above that level, if we get there, expect a huge spike up. Bearish reversal if price dips below 1.4150.
Crude oil reversal ? The 65.5$ level seem to act as an important resistance. Raise your stop to 64$.
FAS ? Well, my big worry is Citigroup (C) ; have you seen the chart ? It looks pretty bad..... a close below 2.50$ could cause some severe damage ....
Like I said, stay out

Dollar reversal is NOT a good sign

Nice price move today in most indexes ......
Lots of high quality stocks experienced a gap up .......with low volume
But .... the $USD Dollar keeps on falling .....
Warning ; it is a "leading indicator" ..... do not ignore it.
Sell on strengh NOW ; walk away, book your profits.
Go have a drink :)
I did ; few Rosé wine ....... a place called Place Du Chatelain in Brussels
Sell on strenghs ...
What would make me change my mind ? A huge bullish reversal in the Dollar.
China’s forex reserves pass $2,000bn
Amazing reserves with a falling Dollar .......
What would you do if you where in charge of these reserves ?
1) Dump the Dollar ?
2) Buy more bonds ? (US)
3) Buy US listed companies ?
Gut feeling ? It does NOT feel right ........ I'll go painting and try to find some inspiration :)

BSE India Bombay Sensex 30 Index

BSE India Bombay Sensex 30 index ; go long again
Stop loss is @ 14,000 (was our main resistance level)
Index closed @ 14,253 (up 2.88%)

Japanese volcano

Picture of a Japanese volcano.
A friend of mine is a pilot, based in Asia ; loved it when he sends me those wild pics :)

Strong warning signal from the Dollar

What am I focusing on today ?
Light crude oil versus the $USD Dollar
One of them HAS to snap .........
Last support for the Dollar @ 79.5
Major entry for light crude oil right above 61$
We have seen several "fake moves" in the Dollar for the past two months
So expect the unexpected

Light crude oil bullish reversal ?

Light crude oil bullish reversal ?
Support channel seems to hold.
Re entry is right above the 61$ levels
Use today's lows as your stop

BSE India Bombay Sensex 30 Index

BSE India Bombay Sensex 30 index ;
Current level @ 10.30 AM (Brussels time) is 13,757
14,000 level is still our confirmed "resistance level"
Is our target the 200 days exp MA ?
Will we close that gap ?
Gut feeling ? See that scenario in blue ?
"B" level could probably be the 12,500 levels
"C" ? Around Dec 2009

Direxion Financial Bull 3X Shares (FAS)

Will sell today my position in the Direxion Financial Bull 3X Shares (FAS) today.
Using the chart of $RIFIN (Russel 1000 Financial Services)
Its a trader's market right now ; not a buy and hold & hope ......
Do not beleive the recent hype ..... this mess if far from over ....
Commercial real estate stories are poping up everywhere .....
A clean close above 650 will make me change my mind

SP 500 chart analysis

SP 500 chart analysis ;
1) Support channel did hold ....... so far .....
2) Price managed to climb right above the 50 days exp MA
3) Main resistance levels is quite clear (200 days exp MA)
Gut feeling ; see that scenario (blue chart) ; pay attention to it.
I expect to see "B" at a lower level ; so do not beleive the hype ..... yet ....
Selling FAS today, holding UNG.

Risk Analysis using the Dow Jones

Risk analysis using the monthly chart of the Dow Jones Industrial
Why should you pay attention to that monthly chart ?
Well, charts are like a thermometer ; they basically tell you when its "too hot" or "too cold".
Monthly charts are VERY important because their patterns tend to have a long term effect on a price move.
So, before looking at a potential gain, start to first consider the risk/reward ratio.
CAN the DOW CRASH ?????
Sorry to be so blunt, but sometimes it helps to "wake people up" ..........
8000 level is your real warning ; a weekly/monthly close below that level will cause some serious damage.
Focus on those company reports coming out this week .....

CAC 40 France index

Quick look at the CAC 40, France index ;
1) Support level break confirms reversal
2) Pay attention to that short trigger candle
3) Your stop is now @ 3050
4) Current price is below the psychological level of 3000
Target ? Not clear yet ..... waiting for a sell off ....
Gut feeling ?
US big caps are reporting ...... patience

British Pound chart analysis, Forex

British Pound chart analysis ;
1) Support level is quite clear
2) Notice the fake move ? Candle in light blue
3) 1.6200 is your bullish REVERSAL entry level
4) Target ? If that important support does not hold, it may feel like a huge drop

Australian Dollar lost momentum ?

Quick look at the Australian Dollar ;
Several months ago, I posted that the Australian was facing a bullish reversal.
Now what ?
We can see the following facts ;
1) Lower highs ; with one of them being a fake move
2) Present support level is quite important
3) 0.7800 is your REVERSAL signal (go bullish above it)
4) Target if this fall continues ? See next levels on the chart
Autralian Dollar linked to the commodity story ? Probably

Should you buy Dell Inc. (DELL) ?

That's probably a question a lot of traders have on their minds ;
Should you buy Dell Inc. (DELL) ?
Well, I'll tell you how I proceed before buying what should/could be considered a turn around story.
First, focus on the turn around pattern ; higher lows, break out above that trigger line, sending DELL zooming up (early March)
How come I did not buy then ? The fundamental story (with DELL) was not good .....
Is it better now ? Well, lets just say that it is "improving" ........
Improving justifies a buy signal ? NO
Now what ? I would like to see some CLEAR retracement ..... then ?
Wait for some GREAT high impact news, followed with a clear gap up on HUGE volume.

Russia ETF (RSX), and Light Crude Oil

Focusing on the Market Vectors Russia ETF (RSX) and Light Crude Oil ;
Right now, light crude is trading "BELOW" 60$
Warning ; that is a "weekly chart"
Trading plan ?
As oil keeps on going down, the RSX (Russia) is getting on my radar screen
See those multiple buy levels ?
Dream 1) hope to buy that ETF below 17$
Dream 2) hope to buy more below 16$
My allocation to that ETF will be fully invested if we "flirt" with 15$ :)
Gut feeling ? Probably facing a typical ABC pattern

US Dollar index chart

Another reversal signal for the $USD Dollar index .......
Clear resistance @ 81
Warning level again @ 80
Light crude oil is trading at 60$ ...... and the Dollar goes down ....
Gold had a huge sell off .... and the Dollar goes down .....
Gold's support at 900 ; if Gold breaks below that level, would that send the Dollar higher ?
Do we need to see crude oil below 58$ (support from mid May) to see the Dollar trend higher ?

Euro Dollar bullish reversal ?

Euro Dollar bullish reversal ?
Pay attention to that important support channel
Go long, focus on that stop loss level

Obama's Ghana Trip Linked To New U.S. Oil Strategy on African Continent, says Gold Star Resources CEO

Obama's Ghana Trip Linked To New U.S. Oil Strategy on African Continent, says Gold Star Resources CEO: "'U.S. President Barack Obama's trip to Ghana on July 10th-11th is a subtle White House oil strategy to secure another source of energy on the continent of Africa,' says Patrick Morris, Chief Executive Officer of Gold Star Resources Corp. (TSX-V; GXX; OTC Bulletin Board: GXXFF; www.goldstarresources.com). Gold Star Resources is a Vancouver-based company seeking high-impact 'onshore' oil and gas opportunities in Liberia, Cote d'Ivoire and Ghana in West Africa."

Asian indexes analysis

Thailand Set index ; closed @ 581.99 ; Uptrend intact, our main key support level is 560.
"B" level is probably @ 560 ; "A" stands right @ 630 ; "C", our long term buy trigger stands right above 630.

Karachi stock exchange 100 index ; key support is right @ 7000- 7200. ("B" level)
"A" stands right @ 7800
Uptrend intact

Shangai Stock Exchange Composite Index ; closed @ 3123 ; uptrend resumes.
Uptrend almost "too perfect"
This "long lasting uptrend" started in Nov 2008 (low around 1700)
Do not like the looks of this parabolic rise ...... still expecting a pull back, leading to a channel pattern.

Japan Tokyo Nikkei Average ; Index faced some heavy resistance at the 200 days exp MA.
"B" level taking place around the 9200 levels ?

Kospi South Korea Seoul index ; main resistance still @ 1450 ; uptrend is intact.
This tight channel (1400-1450) will end up in a break out ; gut feeling ? up.

BSE India Bombay Sensex 30 Index

Live quote on the India Bombay Sensex 30 index ; 13,761
Our new clear resistance is 14,000
Price is sitting right on its 50 days exp MA
Last support @ 13,500 ?
Go long (strong buy) right above the 14,000 levels
Get out if price closes below 13,500 (retracement could lead to "closing that gap" and test the 12,500 levels

SP 500 chart probable scenario

Quick look at the SP 500 chart ;
1) ABC pattern highly probable with "B" around the 840 levels
2) "C" is now quite clear (right above A) where the majority of investors would feel ok buying that important break out.
3) This pull back was "expected"
4) How long will it take to see "B" (gut feeling ? around 3 to 5 weeks)
Could I be wrong ? Of course ; what scenario will make me change my mind ?
1) A gap down on real bad fundamental news
2) SP 500 tries to climb back and tests again the 860 levels only to fall back hard, below the 820 levels
Gut feeling ? We are probably facing an ABC pattern ; we just need some more improved fundamentals to confirm the recent rise of the SP 500

PowerShares DB Gold Double Short ETN (DZZ), go long

Short trigger on Gold activated
Going long on Powershares DB Gold double short ETN (DZZ) ; stop loss @ 21.5$

UltraShort ETF ProShares (QID), sold

Selling my position of UltraShort ETF ProShares (QID)
See past buy signal on this post here
Why ? Facing resistance at the 50 days exp moving average

Shopping time, DXO and FAS

Buying a small position in ;
Direxion Financial Bull 3X Shares (FAS)
PowerShares DB Crude Oil Dble Long ETN (DXO)
Hoping to buy more on another sell off :)

Light crude oil chart analysis

Short trigger on light crude oil still activated, raise stop @ 64$.
ABC pattern taking place ? Are we looking for a base to find our "B" level ?
See the FAQ of the "ABC" pattern right on your top right hand side.
Demand slowing down ?
Divergence between Oil and equity markets of China and India (those two indexes still face an uptrend).
Is crude oil just facing your basic retracement ?
Gut feeling ? We are heading for some sort of channel (base) where "B" will soon take shape.
Getting reading to buy DXO on a spike down (small positions first)

Time to go shopping ?

What am I watching ? The ETFs / ETNs I usually mention on this blog ; the usual suspects ;
1) PowerShares DB Crude Oil Dble Long ETN (DXO)
2) Direxion Financial Bull 3X Shares (FAS)
3) Proshares Ultra Real Estate ETF (URE)
and of course US Nat Gas fund ETF (UNG)

Time to go shopping ? Sure, if you inject small amounts at a time .........
What ? I'll be getting emails from angry chartists telling me not to buy a falling knife ...
Trading plan ;
Will start to buy DXO, FAS, URE on Thursday
Small amounts only, actually hoping to see some sell off
PS : if you are a "LONG" term investor (willing to hold over 24 months), buy them and GO AWAY

United States natural gas fund ETF (UNG)

Getting ready to buy some shares of the US natural gas fund ETF (UNG) ;
1) Buying small quantities at the open
2) Hope that UNG will go lower, so I can buy more shares
3) Below 10$ ; I'll be fully invested
Time frame ? 3 to 6 months
Allocation vis à vis my portfolio ? 3 %
This has NOTHING to do with technicals ........
The natural gas fund ETF (UNG) is "WAY" oversold

BSE India Bombay Sensex 30 Index

Quick look at the BSE India Bombay Sensex 30 index ;
Chart is not live ; current price is right at 14,043 ; a 5.8% drop , right on support.
India's Sensex was clearly overbought.
Next ? Another fall below support is "highly"probable

US Dollar index buy signal ?

As mentioned in a previous post ; the $USD Dollar is probably facing a bullish reversal.
PS : "always expect the unexpected", "fake moves, chaos theory, etc ......
Why do I say that ? We have seen them in the very recent past ....
Buyer of the $USD Dollar with 80.50 as my stop.
Pay attention to those levels where I will increase positions
It confirms the light Crude Oil and Gold reversal
ETF Focus ? The Powershares DB US Dollar index Bullish (UUP)

Iran, picture of the year

Sorry, no source yet ; got it by email via a Twitter follower (in Iran)
Will credit the owner of the picture (if he/she wishes)

Case study, long term price of rice

Weekly case study of the price of rice (Rough Rice)
This current level confirms that our old "C" level acted as a very reliable support.
First ABC pattern break out did sent rice into a typical parabolic rise.
Fundamentals have changed ? Not really.
Global demand will increase ; more people to feed, not enough supplies ?
Time to invest in Thailand rice ? Well that market is "protected" ; hard to invest there if you are a foreigner ..... trust me, I tried :)
Pay attention to the current channel pattern ; a monthly close above 1400 will send the price of rise flying upwards .......

Weekly comment

Do you have a feeling like we could face another market crash ?
It "feels" like it .......
When I look at the usual suspects ; Financials, Oil, and the SP 500 using a simple weekly moving average (target is XLE, XLF, and SPY) ; the slope of that moving average is still heading down .
Time for a HUGE pull back ?
PS ; using a 50 weeks MA
Not the time to play heroes ........ not the time to play the "guessing game".
Stay out ......
The French CAC 40 and the German Dax ; you should worry about these two as well ....
Asian ETFs have been acting stronger ..... I have my doubts about them ....
I mentioned a few days ago that Shangai Stock Exchange was "way" overbought ..... with so many new IPOs leading that index up ......... IPOs with lots of BS companies .......
Bottom line ? Stay out ........

Fake crude oil move caused by rogue trader ?

Was that fake move in crude oil caused by a rogue trader ?
The Financial Times reports ;
"The boss of Steve Perkins, the broker at the heart of a rogue trading scandal that rocked oil markets this week, issued a bullish report suggesting prices could go higher only hours after Mr Perkins made the unauthorised trades that caused prices to spike."
You can read the full article on the Financial Times

Back to the chart ; what did that trader see ? A break out above the previous resistance @ 73 $ ?
Of course, he "had to issue" some bullish reports to "CONFIRM" the break out ....

Is the VIX ready to pop up ?

Focusing on the VIX (volatility) indicator
Watching the 30 levels next week.
Time to focus on inverse ETFs ?

Is the Silver ETF (SLV) oversold ?

Looking at the Silver ETF (SLV) ;
1) We can see the fake move above the "C" trigger (ABC pattern)
2) We can also assume that the "initial break out" (in blue, see chart) was the start of the pattern with the "A" level standing at around $16
3) Are we now facing a "B" level ?
Gut feeling ; Silver is probably oversold, expecting a bounce up
Next ? channel pattern .....

Baltic Dry Index reversal ?

I often pay attention to the Baltic Dry Index, using a simple 20 days moving average.
Its been reliable in the past, spoting reversals. I use it as a leading indicator.
See that reversal signal ?

Tour de France

I did this cartoon 2 years ago ........ :)
I use this site to follow the "Tour de France"

Apple Inc. (AAPL) probable scenario

Quick look at Apple Inc. (AAPL) ;
I often draw "probable scenarios", then print it, and place them on my wall.
One thing is clear, resistance @ 154 $
Warning signal is right @ 135 $
I "favor" the blue scenario ; unless we get some nasty fundamental/economic news where the red scenario might occur.
Green scenario ? I doubt it ; Apple Inc. (AAPL) has been rising "too fast".
Start to pay attention to RIMM and PALM (back from the dead)

Thailand Set index chart analysis

Thailand Set Index ;
1) After this "parabolic rise", a sideway pattern was expected
2) 580 levels is now our immediate support
3) A close below 560 should trigger a huge "sell off"
Main trend still bullish but the swine flu and a huge fall in tourism could/might affect growth.

SP 500 chart analysis

Quick look at the SP 500 ;
As mentioned in previous posts, was expecting a pull back (prior to my trip in Asia).
How severe ? Well, it depends on the fundamental news we shall soon get .....
On my trip in Asia, I had the chance to visit many clients who told me quite clearly ; the mess is far from over ........
Inventories are pilling up in warehouses ...........
Importers (outside of Asia) are canceling their orders ......
Banks are still NOT lending .........
Consumers are not spending .......
Hotels are EMPTY .........
So why are those Asian indexes rising ????
Ok, back to the SP 500 ; pay attention to those 880 levels ;
1) A high impact "bad" news could trigger a sell off
2) Light crude oil price reversal is telling us something ????
Stay out ........... fasten your seat belt :)
PS : very sunny and hot in Brussels :)

Gold ETF (GLD) versus the US Dollar chart analysis

This is a weekly chart of the Gold ETF (GLD) versus the $USD Dollar ;
1) In late 86, we noticed a lower highs (Dollar) versus a higher lows (GLD)
2) Peak in Gold (early 08) we did see the Dollar for a bottom with a higher low pattern and a clear break out in Aug 08
3) The divergence in 09 started in April
4) We are now facing a lower highs pattern (Gold) versus a possible $USD Dollar higher lows ?
Gut feeling ; a break below 90 for GLD should send the Dollar above the 81 levels.
These next 2 weeks ; we should be set ......... expecting some wild moves .....
Watch the news ....... some high impact news should trigger some major break out SOON.