Social Media Revolution ?

United States natural gas fund ETF (UNG), adding more shares

On July 7, 2009, I wrote the following on the United States Natural Gas Fund ETF (UNG).
Bloomberg reported that UNG closed Friday with a 20% premium. (Reminds me of those good old closed end funds).
There is a good article about UNG on Seeking Alpha.
Anyways, as I mentioned before, nothing to do with charts here.
I am focusing on buying Gas one step at a time (by injecting small amounts of $) and hoping to see UNG dip below 10$.
Position size of my Gas holding in my portfolio ; less than 1% ; want to own at least 3%.
Why ?
It sounds stupid, but I am always a contrarian that loves way way oversold/overbought conditions.

What is the Dollar trying to tell us ?

I posted a chart of the $USD Dollar a few days ago mentioning that 79.750 (and above) will send me long on the Dollar.
The chart you see above is a weekly chart.
Is that scenario possible ? (see green arrow)
1) Trend line (red) is quite clear ; broken (on huge volatility) ; sending the $USD Dollar zooming up to form "A" (ABC pattern).
2) Dollar came back fast ; finding "B" ; then zoomed up again to trigger "C".
3) "C" failed ......
4) The $USD Dollar crashed, and is now finding support around the "B" level once again.
What is it trying to tell us ????
Euro and the Pound are showing a potential reversal pattern.
We know need to see light crude oil close the week below 69$ (to go long on the Dollar).
Shangai crash means investors look for the Dollar as a safe heaven ???
Its a funny puzzle, where one often makes mistakes trying to figure out how to solve "that puzzle".
The facts ;
1) Oil is facing a VERY big resistance
2) Dollar is way oversold
3) No, there is no other currency ready to take over ..... at least right now .....
Keep that chart in mind and always expect the unexpected

Its all about China and Oil this week ?

Yahoo Finance "top stories" ; what do I notice ? Again oil (now they doubt that a recovery is taking place). Asian markets fall as China goes down 6%. (Again). I have been bearish on China (see past posts) and into (FXP).
Proshares Ultra Short China 25 (FXP) ; probable target is 11.5$.
Regarding oil, focus on the Powershares DB Crude oil dble ETN (DXO) ; Strong support @ 4.4$

Watch Japan on Monday

Weekly chart of the Japanese Nikkei

The DPJ has won 300 seats in the 480-seat lower house, ending 50 years of almost unbroken rule by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). (Source BBC)

Sunday’s vote was seen as an exhilarating moment when the country’s traditionally passive voters showed they can control their nation. (Source New York Times)

Watch the Yen (versus the Dollar and the Euro)
Nikkei ; main resistance is 11000
Focus on that trend line from March lows 2009 ; use it as your stop loss.

Baltic Dry Index versus the SP 500 ($SPX)

Quick analysis of the Baltic Dry Index versus the SP 500
About the BDI (source Wikipedia)

The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is a number issued daily by the London-based Baltic Exchange. Not restricted to Baltic Sea countries, the Index tracks worldwide international shipping prices of various dry bulk cargoes.

The index provides "an assessment of the price of moving the major raw materials by sea. Taking in 26 shipping routes measured on a timecharter and voyage basis, the index covers Handymax, Panamax, and Capesize dry bulk carriers carrying a range of commodities including coal, iron ore and grain.

I often use this index as a leading indicator ; it is clear that we have a MAJOR divergence.
Focus on the stop loss level for the SP 500 @ 1010
BDI ; we need to get back above 2500

France CAC 40 Index probable scenario

Probable scenario for the CAC 40 (France) index ;
1) Key trigger level confirms "safe break out"
2) Use the early Jul uptrend (red) as your stop ; trend is too steep
3) Expecting a pull back to 3600
4) Then ? probable channel pattern until we meet the "main trend" from March lows.

Using Google Trends to find trading opportunities

Everyday (at least once a day), I look at Google Trends
It basically tells me what people are "looking for" in Google search.
An example on Aug 17, 2007 ; people where searching for the "fed discount rate".

On Jul 17, 2008, people searched "GOOG" (ranked number 16) ; it was considered a "volcanic" demand.

Do not expect to find opportunities daily ; it did help me spot the fear level in Lehman Brothers

Currency ETFs you can use

PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish (UUP)
The futures contract is designed to replicate the performance of being long the US Dollar against the Euro, Japanese Yen, British Pound, Canadian Dollar, Swedish Krona and Swiss Franc.
PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bearish (UDN)

Ultra Yen ProShares (YCL)
The investment will seek to replicate, net of expenses, twice the performance of the JPY/USD daily price change.
UltraShort Yen ProShares (YCS)

Ultra Euro ProShares (ULE)
The investment will seek to replicate, net of expenses, twice the performance of the EUR/USD daily price change.
UltraShort Euro ProShares (EUO)

US Dollar index chart analysis

We have seen several "fake moves" in the $USD Dollar chart.
Focus on that "new support channel" (see chart)
Bullish if we get above 79
Really bullish if we manage to climb above 79.750
Current pattern ? Still bearish
PS : As long as crude oil remains above $70, expect a weak Dollar

Apple Inc. (AAPL), probable scenario

Quick chart analysis of Apple Inc. (AAPL) ;
1) Notice that last candle ? Could be a fake break out ....
2) Use that blue trendline as your "exit"
3) See that Aug 17 level ($160) ? That is your "last stop loss"
Gut feeling ? Expecting a channel pattern
One thing bothers me about Apple inc (AAPL) right now ;
A number of iPhones have "exploded" in Europe"
The European Commission also used its Rapex system to issue an alert to its 27 member states about the problem.
Rapex is the EU rapid alert system for dangerous consumer products.
The system issue alerts for multiple products every week, sometimes leading to mass product recalls
Source BBC

Apple denies ...... I hope they wake up
They should change who ever is in charge of their communication in Europe.
A very simple "sorry", with a free Iphone is all you need :)

Yahoo (YHOO), when playing defense gets you no where

Source : Shoemoney.com

"Yahoo Search was originally powered by Google Search and monetized by Google Adwords. In 2001 Google’s Co-founders offered to sell the search Engine to Yahoo for 1 Billion dollars. Yahoo passed on the deal.

In 2002 Yahoo purchased the Inktomi search engine.

In 2003 Yahoo purchased they purchased Overture Services, Inc., which owned the AlltheWeb and AltaVista search engines.

In 2004 Yahoo’s search monetization product (overture) was so strong that it was also powering Microsoft’s Search.

But it all went down hill from there as Yahoo! went on the defense."

Source : Shoemoney.com
Article written by Jeremy Schoemaker

Day trading the PowerShares QQQ (QQQQ)

Quick analysis of the PowerShares QQQ (QQQQ) ;
Notice that break out a few days ago ?
Price did reverse on that level, confirming this level as a reliable support ?
Next trigger ? $40.5 (go long above) ; stop @ $39.75

Canadian and Australian Dollar

Quick analysis using the CurrencyShares Canadian Dollar Trust (FXC) and the CurrencyShares Australian Dollar Trust (FXC).
Chart on top is the Canadian Dollar ; it has a tendancy to form a small parabolic rise, then pull back hard.
The Australian Dollar seem to be the only one (out there) with a clear uptrend (trendline).
I draw the black arrow, print it and place it on my wall. It helps me focus on a most probable scenario. If the picture is clear in my mind, I will then look for price to act according to scenario I have in mind.
Why am I then expecting a sharp drop ?
The $USD Dollar will face a huge oversold level

Euro Dollar chart update

Euro Dollar chart update ;
Pay attention to the "resistance channel" (in yellow on the chart)
We have had our shares of "fake moves" .... so expect the unexpected.
Safe entry ? Probably right above 1.4500
Expect a spike up if we get over 1.4500

Proshares Ultra Short China 25 (FXP) and the ABC pattern

I have been writing about the potential bearish reversal in the Shangai (China) Stock Exchange, and the need to focus on the Proshares Ultra Short China 25 (FXP).
See link here
Do you notice that probable ABC pattern ?
"C" is right above the $11 huge buy trigger

Toyota Motor Corp. (TM), trendlines versus the ABC pattern

Quick case study of Toyota Motor Corp. (TM) ;
1) This is a weekly chart
2) We are facing a typical ABC pattern ("C" is right above "A")
3) Trend line 1 (see chart) is still NOT fully broken
Gut feeling ? A clean weekly close above $90 is what we really need.
If you did buy, use $83 as your stop loss
Your last stop loss level is trend 2 (see chart)

Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD) trading plan

Trading plan for Advanced Micro Devices inc (AMD) ;
1) Resistance channel is quite clear
2) Probable ABC pattern with "C" right above 4.2$
3) Watch out for a fake move (occured in mid July)
Warning, fundamentals look really bad (see link here)
About AMD

New brand you should pay attention to, Franklin Marshall

In May 2006, I was interviewed by a Swiss reporter ; I mentioned how it was often quite easy to spot a "brand rising" (seing all those young people buying Puma shoes).
See the interview here
*Sorry, the interview is in French*
Now I am seing the same thing with a brand called Franklin Marshall
Nice story of two Italian guys that loved American University/Sport wear and concluded they could bring it back to Italy ........ using an Italian twist .... :)
So why did I buy a Fleece from Franklin Marshall for 120 Euros ?
Read about their project in Africa here

Is the company for sale ? I have no idea
All I know is that people are spreading the word ; that brand is hot in Italy, UK, France, Benelux ....
Lets hope it get listed on an exchange :)

SP 500 chart analysis

SP 500 chart analysis. (SPX), (SPY)
Lets focus on a few facts first ;
1) Focus on that main trend (pink) could serve as your stop loss level
2) Next probable pattern ? Channel (see resistance and support in blue)
3) Exp moving average (50 & 200) crossover confirmed
4) Huge support level stands @ 925 to 950
Gut feeling ; "Buy on the Dip" is probably my next move ; now here comes the big question, how much of a dip am I expecting ? mmmm, would love to see a pull back to 975.

Mechel Steel Group (MTL)

Got an email from a reader regarding Mechel Steel Group (MTL) facing a probable "C" (see ABC pattern).
About Mechel
*Mining, Steel, Coal, Nickel, Iron Ore*
Financial results

Apple Inc. (AAPL), you missed your trading signal, now what ?

Case study using Apple Inc. (AAPL) ;
Most reliable trading systems often use a mid to long term moving average crossover.
Using stops and chart patterns (ie :break outs) you should do fine.
Here is a typical case ;
You rules where ;
1) I buy a few shares when the 5 days exp MA is over the 50 days ; but since the 50 days exp is below the 200 days exp, I only use a smaller amount of my allocation ($$$) to Apple Inc. (AAPL).
2) I then add more shares once the 5 days exp goes above the 200 days.
3) Position fully invested once the 50 is above the 200
(Assuming that this stock represents 2 to 3% of your portfolio)
Now what ......... what if you missed that signal ? where do you start ????
Buying high never feels right ........
Use a third of your allocation to buy Apple Inc. (AAPL) ; do NOT buy at the open.
Focus on that stop loss level
Then ? Gut feeling tells me we should enter a flat channel ; be patient, and add more shares on a future break out

Wise words from Seth Godin

"Leadership is scarce because few people are willing to go through the discomfort required to lead."

It’s uncomfortable to stand up in front of strangers.
It’s uncomfortable to propose an idea that might fail.
It’s uncomfortable to challenge the status quo.
It’s uncomfortable to resist the urge to settle.

Read his blog here

Profit from tiny price discrepancies ?

Software that enables the buying and selling of shares in milliseconds
"Banks and hedge funds use such programs to profit from tiny price discrepancies among markets and in some instances leap in front of bigger orders."
Source : article in the New York Times

PowerShares DB Crude Oil Dble Long ETN (DXO)

Pay attention to light crude oil prices ; break out confirmed ? Some are waiting for price to get above the $75 "round number" trigger.
That should confirms this "weekly"chart of PowerShares DB Crude Oil Dble Long ETN (DXO)'s ABC pattern. A weekly close above $5 should trigger a huge buy signal (we also need a volume break out).

How do I pick stocks to trade

Ok, besides reading the news, here is how I look for potential winners.
Try this web site ; www.barchart.com
Then click on "Sectors"
That should take you here "sectors link"
You'll find on top the "Top 100 Stocks"
Click on that link ; or click this link

You will see stocks with high weighted alpha
What is the meaning of "high weighted alpha ?"

I then click on the "relative strengh" ; why ? it tells me who is moving .....
Then ? Well, my brain needs to fully understand what the company is all about :)
Example ; Clearwater Paper Corporation (CLW)
http://www.clearwaterpaper.com
Clearwater Paper Corporation manufactures and sells pulp-based products in the United States and internationally. It operates in three segments: Consumer Products, Pulp and Paperboard, and Wood Products.
Revenues ; 1.2 B versus a 533 M Market cap .........
Trailing PE ; 5.88 ........ according to Yahoo Finance
Its chart ? looks amazing ........ overbought ? maybe ......
Now its on my watch list :)

The perfect pitch

This is your ONCE-IN-A-LIFETIME opportunity to pitch your business idea to Sir Richard Branson and a conference full of venture capitalists, angel investors and influential entrepreneurs.
The top 3 will get the opportunity to pitch their business ideas to our live audience, including many venture capital firms, angel investors and Sir Richard Branson.
Its a great idea : )

What is a pitch?

A pitch is a one-minute video or a short written description that compels investors to take a closer look at your business. It is not a full business plan. KEEP IT SHORT. A good pitch grabs attention and explains the following:

• What your business is
• The customer need it fulfills
• The market size
• How you are better than the competition
• The strengths of you and your team
• An interesting fact or juicy bit of information that leaves investors wanting more!

Ok people, time to think ........ only 16 days left :)
http://www.perfectbusiness.com/ThePerfectPitch/index.cfm

Weekend opinion

Well, first, my kids got on a front cover of a well known Belgian magazine :)
Proud father :)
Funny, it all started when a photographer took pictures of my twins while playing soccer.
The next thing you know, they get called up all the time (LU biscuits, Miracoli Pasta, and various fashion brands).
They do save their money, and I try to teach them how to read charts :)
I am hoping they will learn Chinese ...... mmmm you never know :)

Ok, back to the markets ;
1) $USD Dollar index crashing again or just testing its previous low ? Double bottom @ 77.5 or shall we see another break down ??
2) Oil did break out ....... gut feeling ? a fake move ....
3) Euro Dollar right now stands @ 1.4333 ; heading for 1.4450 ? (main resistance)
4) SP 500 is facing a clean break out pattern (ABC)
Rule 1 : expect fake moves to take place
Rule 2 : exit strategy first before going long
Rule 3 : only fools do not change their minds
My focus right now ; the dollar, oil, and FAS

Light crude oil break out

We now have a confirmed light crude oil break out.
It also confirms the cup and holder pattern I posted a while ago.
Fake move again ???? (always expect the unexpected)
Go long ; stops @ $73
Gut feeling ? we climb higher, than reverse hard .........
Price leads ..... so play the break out, and ask questions (get answers) later :)

Case study, How to spot a fake move

Quick case study on "how to spot a fake move" using the Proshares Ultra Real Estate ETF (URE) ;
1) Patterns do repeat (rule 1)
2) After a huge fall we get many fake "up moves" (see "always fake in Nov 2008).
3) End of 2008 we get a "typical fake move" ; conditions improve but fundamentals do not follow yet (still too much fear)
4) URE goes into a long base channel (normal condition) ; it tells you that a break out will occur if fundamental picture REALLY improves.
5) "A" occurs (see ABC pattern) ; price zooms up on good news ; then price pulls back since most traders do not yet "trust" those news .........
6) "B" is taking shape ......
7) "C" ???? Needs to close right above "A"
Conclusion ; our "C" trigger is probably the safest signal to trade.

United States natural gas fund ETF (UNG), buy and go away

Weekly chart of the United States Natural Gas Fund ETF (UNG)
Yesterday's price closed @ $11.51
There are times when a "chartist" should use some business common sense.
It is always hard to catch a bottom, but if you start to inject "small amount" of cash in this ETF, your return should be pretty decent (next 12 months).
Trading plan ; will buy some at the open, and will increase positions as it goes lower.
Target position size ? At least 3 to 4% of my portfolio

Light crude oil, looking at the past

Multi year monthly chart of light crude oil ;
Why do I look at such a long term chart ? Well, it often shows you what pattern might occur "again" in the future.
Based on past supply/demand factors and the BRIC story, we can see that crude oil tends to give us often "fake break outs", and long channels.
Based on those past patterns, I am drawing several scenarios (see arrows on the chart), called them "educated guess" in order to have a visual picture of where oil should be in 2010, 2011 and around 2015....
That visual picture helps me plan my trade for the Direxion Financial Bull 3X Shares (FAS).
Gut feeling ? I am really focusing on that green arrow (pull back, then prices rising towards 75 to 80 around mid 2010.
That tells me to expect a pull back in the Direxion Financial Bull 3X Shares (FAS).
Will buy on extreme oversold ; so patience :)

PowerShares QQQ (QQQQ), day trading

Day trading the PowerShares QQQ (QQQQ) ;
1) We did close that gap (see chart)
2) Pay also attention to the daily chart ; resistance channel is real hard @ $40
3) Expect volume to dry up and form a long U shape
If you bought ; use $39.4 as your stop
Short trigger stands @ $39.2

Shangai Stock Exchange, end of the bull market ?

End of the bull market in China ?
The Shangai stock exchange is down again over 4%. (@ 2785).
The 200 days exp moving average stands @ 2726 (our probable target).
Then what ?
Expecting a sharp move upwards, followed by a channel pattern (our "B" level)
The good news ; we know where "A stands (ABC pattern). We now need our "strong support" level known as "B". We shall soon see if the global economy is doing better.
The bad news ? I really feel bad for those who bought a few days ago when the media was all over us with GREAT news ..... inciting people to buy ....

US Dollar index chart analysis

Quick look at the recent bounce up in the $USD Dollar index ;
1) Notice that trend line ? Do not attempt to draw "other trend lines" ; this is the "right one" (Dow theory trend line) ; it connects the highest high to lowest high "prior" to lowest low.
2) Focus on that trigger level (79.5)
3) Focus on the price of crude oil as well (fake move yesterday ?)
Gut feeling ; Asian markets did suffer another pull back (Shangai down over 4%) , time to seek refuge in the Dollar ? Probably.
Warning ; main pattern is STILL bearish on the Dollar

Russia ETF (RSX) and Light Crude Oil, perfect correlation ?

The Market Vectors Russia ETF (RSX) and Light Crude Oil seem to have a "perfect correlation".
Scary to think that the future of Russia is directly "correlated" to the price of crude oil ....
Maybe its time for them to diversify ?
In any case ; the ETF (RSX) and crude oil face the same pattern.
Trading plan :
Crude oil needs to get back above $70
Russian ETF (RSX) needs to get back above $24
Otherwise STAY OUT

PS ; $USD Dollar versus Russia Ruble ; real bullish above 32.7

Cartoon about Apple Inc. (AAPL)

Cartoon about Apple Inc. (AAPL)
It was inspired by this article in PC Mag

Apple Inc. (AAPL) expected scenario ?

Quick look at Apple Inc. (AAPL) ;
1) Most traders are focusing on that strong support level
2) Most traders are "expecting" that probable scenario (blue arrow on chart)
Gut feeling ? expect a channel pattern first, then wait for a clear break out ; do not attempt to predict the "next move". Stay out.
If you are a long term investor (using the 200 days exp MA) ; your buy signal is intact.

The usual suspects (QQQQ), (FAS), and (DXO)

Pictures taken from a reader in Greece :)
Telling me to go and join him while the market pulls back ..... mmmm
I am focusing on the following ;
Direxion Financial Bull 3X Shares (FAS) ; $55 to $60 would be a level I am focusing on in order to start buying.
PowerShares DB Crude Oil Dble Long ETN (DXO) ; price did bounce up on its 50 days exp moving average ; reversal ? too early to tell ..... stay out.
Powershares QQQ (QQQQ) ; $37 is probably our next target (strong support). Let's see how price reacts .....
The good news ? we now have our clear "A" level
Next ? We need some strong base "B" ; and lets see if more improved fundamentals do follow.
Gut feeling ? those good news from France and Germany where full of BS ; they used the fact that people turned in their old junk (cars) to buy new cars (what people in the US call clunkers) and used those numbers to show improved fundamentals ? yeah right .....

Light crude oil chart analysis

Light crude oil chart analysis ;
1) Resistance is clear
2) Price is now "Below" its 50 days moving average (simple)
3) Quick target is the "warning" level
4) Focus on a rebound on that "warning" level
5) Pay attention to that short trigger.
Gut feeling ; Oil, Euro down .......... remember that "Short Master" cartoon ??? :)
Focus on the $USD Dollar ......
Short stocks & ETFs ? No ..... at least not yet ...

PowerShares QQQ (QQQQ), wave 5 ?

Quick look at the PowerShares QQQ (QQQQ) ; are we in a wave 5 ?
Wave five is the final leg in the direction of the dominant trend. The news is almost universally positive and everyone is bullish.
Unfortunately, this is when many average investors finally buy in, right before the top.
Source ; The Elliott wave principle is a form of technical analysis that attempts to forecast trends in the financial markets and other collective activities.

Gut feeling ? watch the $38 levels ; a hard fall below that level on increased volume could spell the end of that uptrend .....
PS ; stuck in a tight channel ; so expect a hufe break out.
PS 2 ; Ignore "Elliot" if we manage to close above $41 next week

Confront your mistakes

Confront your mistakes ..... fast, you know that as a trader, numbers do not lie.

Market Vectors Coal ETF (KOL), buy Coal and go away ?

Market Vectors Coal ETF (KOL) ; when I see those patterns ..... mmm , what kind I say ; too good to be true ?
Message is quite clear ; buy coal and go away.
Stop loss @ "C" level

Shangai Stock Exchange, huge ABC pattern ?

Latest quote on the Shangai Stock Exchange is 3046 (down 3%).
Pay close attention to this tight channel
1) A HUGE break out is about to occur
2) Is this our "B" level ?
3) Play the break out
Gut feeling ; while I still think that it is way overbought (too many new IPOs pushing the index higher), investor might consider that level a buy opportunity (dip buying).
Expecting some WILD moves

BSE India Bombay Sensex 30 index

Last trade at the BSE India Bombay Sensex 30 index stands @ 15,413
Raise stop to 15,000 (Shangai's market is also reversing)
Pay attention to the warning level
Was that a fake move ? (see chart)
Ignore scenario if it gets back above 15,600

Gold prices heading to 2000 ?

Germany, France pull out of recession ? mmm, not on this planet
Somebody must be fooling around with datas .....
Ok, back to Gold ; this is a monthly chart.
1) Typical ABC pattern
2) Notice how the old "C" trigger served as a perfect "B" support level ?
3) Now what ? a huge break out ?

Gut feeling ; ok, I am not Jim Rogers, Roubini , Marc Faber, or Bob Prechter but ..... their scenario might be FOR REAL .....
If Gold does break out ..... expect some real fear .... and a HUGE pull back in equities ....

Case study, Ford Motor Co. (F)

Quick case study for Ford Motor Co. (F) using the ABC pattern.
Please look at the FAQ for the ABC pattern on the top right hand side of the blog.
I have also added a few exp moving averages I use ; I'll teach you ho I use them.
Few rules about the ABC pattern ;
1) Fundamentals ; by that I mean positive news (earnings, new products, improved margins, improved sales, etc .....) the ABC pattern puts a lot of weight on bullish news.
2) Bullish news means ; price gap (if possible)
3) Huge, or big increase in volume is needed
Now let's look at the chart of Ford Motor Co. (F) ;
The first ABC pattern took place in mid April ; it also confirmed a multiple moving average crossover.
Improved news did send Ford Motor Co. (F) zooming up ..... too fast
Guess what ? I love those patterns ; they basically tell you what to do ;
1) Price tells you where "speculators" are willing to push the price up (A in early May)
2) Price tells you to wait until we find a clear retracement level (B long base)
3) Price tells you where to enter "safely" , right above "C" at the end of July (notice that gap on increased volume ?)
Amazing ........ that last "C" felt like every trader used the same logic :)
Now what ?
Use that 50 exp moving average as your stop loss level
Gut feeling ? Ford Motor Co. (F) will probably be doing much better (weak Dollar)

The end of Google Inc. (GOOG) ?

That title "The end of Google Inc. (GOOG)" probably does upset you .....
Experience (Over 18 years trading) teaches me one clear thing ; when an old leader fails to outperform its main benchmark (The Nasdaq), its time to reconsider putting too much weight in it.
I am not going to write about "why" its failing ; I prefer to focus on who is really bothering Google these days ; Twitter and Facebook.
If you ask me, I do not see a clear business model for Twitter and Facebook as well ; but who am I to say that ? I am not an internet marketing expert (genius) ......
I would not pay over 50 M $ for Facebook, and 10 M $ for Twitter .....
Guess what ? Myspace now is worth ......... close to nothing ......

Ok, back to Google .....
With a market cap of 145 B and revenues of 22 B ; you should start to worry.
What do you expect ? To see Google go up another 20 to 30 % ?
In this economy ????
What is the future of Google ? More competition from so many players wishing to take its place with BS business models ..........

Intel Corp. (INTC) probable scenario

Probable scenario on Intel Corp. (INTC) ;
Pay attention to the "blue" arrow

Videos I am watching right now

Thailand opportunity
Thailand is a "pocket of opportunity" when it comes to investment, says Mark Mobius, chairman at Franklin Templeton Asset Management.

Hedge Funds
Leon Cooperman, of Omega Advisors; Michael Steinhardt, of Wisdom Tree Investments; and David Gerstenhaber, of Argonaut Capital Management, discuss the state of the hedge fund industry.

Advertising in China
Michael Wood, Greater China CEO of Leo Burnett speaks to Michael Yoshikami, president and chief investment strategist at YCMNet Advisors and CNBC's Martin Soong about his strategy of attacking advertising in the China market.

Dollar index chart analysis

US Dollar index chart analysis ;
Light crude oil reversal (as well as other commodities) did send the Dollar index back up.
"Fake bearish move" (see green circle on the chart) ?
Focus on that main trigger (long entry)
Gut feeling ? Expecting to be "fooled again by randomness" ......
Unless of course we get a clean monthly break out above the 80.5 levels

Day trading the Powershares QQQ (QQQQ)

Day trading the Powershares QQQ (QQQQ)
1) I usually use a 15 min chart to spot price/volume action
2) Price/volume action confirms that $39.4 is our key resistance
3) Main support stands @ 39
Daily chart shows a confirmed uptrend. Main break out occured above $37.
Time to re test that break out level ?

Dollar versus Israel Shekel analysis

Weekly chart of the Dollar versus Israel Shekel ;
Weekly candle reversal confirmed our "B" level (ABC pattern)
See the FAQ for the ABC pattern on the top right hand side of the blog.
Weekly MACD Histogram is showing signs of a bullish reversal
Pay real attention to that "buy" trigger level (see chart)
Last price right now @ 3.876 (12.30 PM, Brussels time)
Bank of Israel's latest attempts to stem the rise of the shekel. Trading volume was running around $10 billion a day, more than twice the normal level. Spreads on shekel/dollar contracts widened substantially as the central bank changed its policy twice in the space of a week in an effort to dampen currency speculation.
Monday, Aug. 3, the Israeli central bank bought an estimated 2 billion U.S. dollars in its latest effort to weaken the shekel.
Exports are now hurting ......

Asian Indexes

KOSPI ; South Korea Seoul Comp index ; perfect uptrend, raise stop to 1550.
BSE ; India Bombay Sensex 30 ; raise stop to 14,500 (stay long).
KSE ; Karachi 100 index ; ABC pattern confirm, stay long (very bullish).
ASX ; Australia All Ords ; stay long, raise stop to 4250.

PS ; Focus on Pakistan's Karachi index ; huge bullish reversal

Crude Oil and the Baltic Dry Index

I usually compare them (light crude oil and the Baltic Dry index) to spot a divergence in the direction of crude oil and eventually a pull back in the SP 500 (the Baltic Dry index is a pretty good leading indicator).
I wrote a post about the Baltic Dry a few days ago ........ regarding the 3000 levels.
We are now below that level ; with a downtrending triangle .....
Conclusion ? A pull back in oil prices ..... and in the SP 500 ......
Like I said several times ; not the time to be a "long term investor"
Book your profits .....

How the UK sold its Gold too early

Apple Inc. (AAPL) probable scenario

Probable scenario in Apple Inc. (AAPL) 's weekly chart
Main long term uptrend is "intact"
Buy the dip & buy the oversold
Expected scenario ; up the stairs pattern

Bernard Madoff cartoon, did you ask ?

Cartoon inspired by this story on Bloomberg ;
By David Voreacos

Aug. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Frank DiPascali, the finance chief at Bernard Madoff’s investment advisory business who agreed to plead guilty, could help prosecutors build criminal cases against other players in his boss’s $65 billion Ponzi scheme.

Light crude oil and the cup and handle pattern

Is there a clear cup and handle pattern in light crude oil ?
See details on the chart
Focus on $69 as your exit point

Shangai Stock Exchange

Quick look at the Shangai Stock Exchange ;
1) Price stuck in a channel
2) Is this our first main reversal signal ?
3) Retracement is "WAY " overdue ......
4) Pay attention to the Green arrow ; scenario I have in mind
Latest news ; China plans to diversify away from coal (coal that provides 70% of its power), into new energy sources (wind, solar and nuclear).
I do not expect to see foreign companies winning any contracts in those sectors (wind, solar, and nuclear) ; its now time to look for local Chinese companies dealing in those sectors.

Paul Tudor Jones, 1987

Weekly opinion

What a week ........ at least for the $USD Dollar
Remember my last posts regarding trading systems , the Euro Dollar and Oil ?
Always expect the unexpected ........
Chart patterns on the Euro Dollar and Light Crude Oil where getting us ready to trade the obvious break out .....
Those patterns where so clear ......
Just another fake move ???

The $USD Dollar rise (from an extreme oversold) is a good sign for US equities.
The Dollar rallied on a brighter U.S. jobs report ? Maybe ......
I am still focusing on trading currencies for the moment ; always have a hard time focusing on both "equities and forex".
If the Dollar keeps on rising next week, I 'll start again to focus on the "Stocks/ETFs/ETNs" I really enjoy to trade ;
1) Direxion Financial Bull 3X Shares (FAS) ; way overbought
2) Apple Inc. (AAPL) ; very tight channel , watch the break out
3) PowerShares QQQ (QQQQ) ; real tight channel
4) Proshares Ultra Real Estate ETF (URE) ; been mentioning this one a lot, wait for the pull back, then go for a sweet homerun :)

Baltic Dry index reversal ?

Pay close attention to the Baltic Dry index
ABC pattern or real reversal ?
Watch the 3000 levels ..... we need to get back above soon ....
Warning ; great leading indicator