PowerShares DB Gold Double Short ETN (DZZ)

PowerShares DB Gold Double Short ETN (DZZ) chart update ;
1) Focus on the "entry level" ; a price break out right above it
2) Pay attention to that support level

Citigroup Inc. (C) trading plan

On my radar screen this morning ; the chart of Citigroup Inc. (C)
Keeping an eye on the situation in Dubai ; Dubai's index lost 7%, while Abu Dhabi's index lost 8%. Not easy to make sense of the news coming out of that region ; between the constant lies, BS ......
Like I said in an earlier post ; too bad there is no "global cop" out there trying to figure out what is really going on .....
They probably never heard the word "due diligence" .. (maybe on paper, but not in reality).
Anyways ; back to Citi ;
1) Watch the support level
2) Watch the volume action
3) Watch the news !!!
Gut feeling ? Price could spike below support ad reverse up .....

Warning signals from Greece ?

Athens General Share ($ATG) ;
1) Weekly chart
2) Price below its 40 weeks MA
3) Economies in Eastern Europe affecting Greece ?
4) Pattern looks pretty bad ....

Apple Inc. (AAPL), using the Trefis estimate

Try it with Apple Inc. (AAPL) , see what happens when Apple sells more Iphones !
Led by MIT engineers and former Wall Street professionals, the Trefis team builds a model for each company's stock price.
n a single snapshot we show you the relative importance of products that comprise a company's stock price.
Go to Trefis

Bon-Ton Stores Inc. (BONT), chart update

The first post on Bon-Ton Stores Inc. (BONT) was posted on Nov 7 here
A "perfect" ABC pattern :)
Gut feeling ? Expect a pull back, leading into a channel pattern

U.S. Crude Oil Production in 2009 Poised To Show Biggest Jump in Almost 40 Years: Platts Analysis

U.S. Crude Oil Production in 2009 Poised To Show Biggest Jump in Almost 40 Years: Platts Analysis: "United States crude oil production for 2009 is on target to have its biggest one-year jump since 1970, according to a Platts analysis of industry data.

With U.S. oil production averaging 5.268 million barrels per day (b/d) through October, the gain in U.S. output will be the most since the country produced 9.637-million b/d in 1970, which turned out to be the peak year of U.S. crude output, according to Platts' analysis of data published by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). If that 5.268 million b/d figure holds through December, this year would show a 6.4% boost from the 4.95 million b/d average of 2008 and rank as the best U.S. oil production year since 2004, when output averaged 5.419 million b/d."

Proshares Ultrashort FTSE Xinhua China 25 (FXP)

Proshares Ultrashort FTSE Xinhua China 25 (FXP) chart analysis ;
1) Setting used = 50 days exp MA ; notice how it often acts as a resistance
2) Focus on the first buy trigger ; a close above $8.5
3) Real safe long trigger is a close above $9.5
Warning ; highly volatile (do not use tight stops)

The Dollar is baaaaack ?

Global fear = buy the $USD Dollar ?
What a reversal in the Euro -Dollar (trading right now @ 1.4871), Light crude oil (@ 73.71), and Gold down over 3% ..... mmmm
Dollar index chart ; we need to climb back above 76 (and remain above)
Light crude oil chart ; watch key support @ around $72
Euro Dollar ; focus on key support @ 1.4800
Gold chart ? Impossible to tell where is our next support level, focus rather on the Dollar index.
Parabolic rises "always" end up in a mess ....

Dubai, castle built on the sand

Let me tell you about the Dubai I know (from my years as a private banker).
Number one place where all scammers unite ....
Their laws always protect the locals ; even if you are right about a business deal, run ! Take your loss and avoid the local jails :)
Banking laws ? Madoff and Stanford will look like kids .....
Having a company in Dubai ? Ok, go ahead, have one, then send me an email about "your" horror story.
What kind of money floods into Dubai ? (Would love to have an international pannel look into that).
Shopping in Dubai ? Stay at home, and shop on Amazon.com or Ebay.com (much cheaper).
Now, the key question ; what else are they hiding ????
Banks in Asia, India and in the UK will suffer most .....
A real castle built on the sand ....

Euro markets reversal

CAC 40 France index chart analysis ; lost over 3% .... (so did other European markets).
Did Dubai cause all this mess today ?
Focus on that key support level .....
One fact about bad news .....
Expect more bad news .....
Expect more fear in the financial sector .....
How many banks are linked to Dubai's mess ?

India Bombay BSE Sensex 30 Index

India Bombay BSE Sensex 30 Index weekly chart ;
1) Setting used ; 40 days exp MA
2) Current level stands @ 16,854
3) Stop loss stands @ 16,000
4) "Last stop loss" = Candle low and the 40 weeks exp MA (see circle on the chart)
Gut feeling ? Will enter a sideway pattern
"A" from our ABC pattern is quite clear, we now need a confirmed "B" level

PowerShares DB Gold Double Short ETN (DZZ)

Powershares DB Gold Double Short ETN (DZZ) chart update ;
1) Notice the huge volume spike ? Capitulation ?
2) Lower your first entry level to price breaking out above $12.5

Articles I am busy reading

1) China's Gold reserve
2) Global warming exposed as UN funded fraud ????
3) Hedge Fund seeks to revive CDS lawsuit against Citi
4) How Tim Geithner screwed us all .....
5) Foreclosure Tsunami means Florida property market will not bottom until 2011 ?

United States Natural Gas fund ETF (UNG)

United States natural gas fund ETF (UNG) chart update ;
If you have been reading this blog for a while, you know that I have been "adding shares" of UNG ....below $9.25 ....
There are times when you "need" to think like a contrarian :)
Back to the chart ; double bottom confirmed ? Looks like it :)

Apple Inc. (AAPL) chart update

Apple Inc. (AAPL) chart update ;
1) Focus on that key resistance (see chart)
2) Focus on the stop loss
3) Volume break out needed !
Long term bullish signal intact

Bearish divergence on the SP 500 ?

I am NOT a big fan of the MACD, I prefer my basic ABC pattern (with gaps, volume, and high impact news/fundamentals).
But , I never ignore a weekly MACD divergence ......
The SP 500 is now facing one.

Stocks with ABC patterns

Tiffany & Co ( TIF )
J CREW GROUP INC COM ( JCG )
BHP Billiton Ltd ( BHP )
INCYTE CORP COM ( INCY )

Notice that these stocks are "gapping" up today as well :)

Gold cartoon

Houston, we have a problem ...... we see the price of gold from here :)

Starbucks Corp. (SBUX) trading plan

Weekly chart analysis of Starbucks Corp. (SBUX) ;
1) Focus on that "main trend" (in blue)
2) Price stuck in a tight channel, expecting a pull back to that blue trend line
3) We now seem to have a confirmed "A" (ABC pattern)
4) Lets wait for a confirmed "B" (real support)

DB Gold Double Short ETN (DZZ), trading plan

Trading plan for DB Gold Double Short ETN (DZZ) ;
1) Will buy a small position right above $13.5
2) Will add shares if DZZ gets above $14.5
What is DZZ ? The investment seeks to replicate, net of expenses, twice the inverse of the daily performance of the Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodity index - Optimum Yield Gold Excess Return. The index is intended to reflect changes in the market value of certain gold futures contracts and is comprised of a single unfunded gold futures contract.

Overbought indicator

Before I start to explain this "little" tool, a quick reminder ;
1) No indicator is perfect
2) They do not work ALL the time
3) Overbought ..... can remain overbought for a while ....
Voilà, now that this is out of the way, let me tell you why I use this indicator ;
1) I trust moving averages ; its simple to use, and often makes sense in a very complex world.
2) Price regression to the mean does often work
3) Long term moving averages are often reliable trends
To understand the PPO, I urge you to first read this on Stockcharts.com
Now check GLD's weekly chart (Gold ETF) ; and see why I am expecting a reversal in gold.
Price spread versus its 40 weeks exp MA is close to 20% !

Ready to short Gold ?

Yes, focusing on a simple fact ; Gold could/may be way way overbought ....
This parabolic rise will NOT hold ..... it will snap .....
No, Gold will NOT rise to the moon .....
Trading plan ?
1) DB Gold Double Short ETN (DZZ) ; recent volume pattern could mean capitulation.
2) StreetTRACKS Gold Shares (GLD) ; gap up today, another run away gap on the way ?
3) Fundamentals are improving in America ?
4) What would cause the $USD Dollar to bottom ?
The National Association of Realtors reported that October home sales rose more than 10 percent.
The strength in housing is a sign of an improving economy, which could argue in favor of raising rates.

Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM)

Current chart pattern of Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) gives me a "buy signal".
Focus on that stop loss
Next probable target ? $80

Light crude oil key buy trigger

Pay attention to that "buy trigger" for light crude oil.
Almost perfect ABC pattern ?

Euro Dollar chart analysis

Quick update for the Euro Dollar ;
1) Current price reversal confirms that 1.4800 is a "reliable" support.
2) Probable target ? 1.5050 .... and above .....
Watching the $USD Dollar index for possible "support" break down ....

Fortune teller ?

Been writing several times about a potential conflict in Venezuela's border with Columbia, see Reuters article here.
The Businessinsider.com also sums it up pretty well.

Gap Inc. (GPS), trading plan

Gap Inc. (GPS) chart analysis ;
1) Buy signal still intact
2) Focus on that "support" level ; use $21 as your stop loss
3) Fundamentals are improving ; price target ? Probably above $30 by Jan 2010
4) The Gap is baaaack ?

Toyota Motor Corp. (TM) and the ABC pattern

Toyota Motor Corp. (TM) weekly chart analysis ;
1) "A" stands at around $86 ; price zoomed up, anticipating a global recovery
2) "B", your real support, waits for fundamentals to improve and confirm early price rise.
3) "C", your real buy trigger confirms price/fundamental action (safe entry above $86)
PS ; Toyota is improving, so is Ford Motor Co. (F) !
Do not ignore Ford ! (low market cap to revenue !)

Light crude oil expected scenario

I urge you to read the latest news concerning ;
1) Venezuela's border's problems with Columbia
2) Yemen's rebels (backed by some say Iran) and Saudi Arabia
Go to your Google News, add those keywords (Venezuela, Columbia, Yemen ....)
Fighting a war by proxy ?
Iran is probably doing so via the rebels (Shiites in Yemen)
US army will now have bases in Columbia (to fight the drug war ? yeah right), probably to remove Chavez.
These two events (any of those two) could send light crude prices above $100.

Citigroup Inc. (C) trading plan

Citigroup Inc. (C) chart analysis and trading plan ;
1) Low volume .... we need a price/volume action
2) Expecting some volatility next week
3) 5 exp MA is still below the 50 exp MA (moving average crossover)
4) Still way below the 200 days exp MA
5) A weekly close above $4.4 will send Citi fly up

Shangai perfect ABC pattern ?

Shangai Stock Exchange chart analysis ;
1) Weekly chart
2) See older posts to view past recommendations
3) "A" level = 3500
4) "B" level = confirmed @ 2750
5) "C" , our real trigger is right above "A" (weekly close)
Gut feeling ? That perfect set up shall send global markets much higger, with oil prices rising above $90.

Dollar bullish reversal on the way ?

$USD Dollar index weekly chart analysis ;
1) Confirmed support level ?
2) Focus on the first buy trigger
3) Huge buy trigger if the Dollar gets above 77 (weekly close)

Gold warning signal

Gold weekly chart analysis ;
1) I may sound like a broken record, but we are facing a "parabolic rise"
2) No, gold will not rise to the moon ......
3) No, its not the end of the $USD Dollar (wake up people!)
4) A lot of people will GET HURT in Gold !
5) Let's assume you have decided to buy gold now (because everybody else did, and the media keeps on telling you to buy gold) ; think like a trader ! Use 1100 as your stop, and 1050 as your "last stop loss level".

Light crude oil chart analysis

Update for light crude oil chart ;
1) Funny how a few weeks ago ; the pattern was giving us a probable break out (upside) !
2) News of "rebels" from Yemen heading to Saudi Arabia could have sent prices higher.
3) Stuck in a tight channel ....
4) Long term pattern is still VERY bullish !
5) Watch the support level at 74-76

Gap down on my radar screen

The following stocks are facing a "gap down" (news related, see increase in volume).
Micron Technology Inc. (MU) ; next target ? 200 days exp MA ?
Texas Instruments (TXN) ; support @ 50 days exp MA ?
Mechel Steel Group OAO (MTL) ; double top, heading down to 50 days exp MA ?
Intel Corp (INTC) ; next support @ $18

BSE India Bombay Sensex 30 Index

India BSE Bombay Sensex 30 Index chart analysis ;
1) Weekly chart
2) Focus on that "lower high", broken trend, resistance and support
3) Raise stop loss to 16500
4) Current price is 16823
Expecting a sideway pattern, long term bullish pattern still intact

Ambac Financial Group (ABK)

Ambac Financial Group (ABK) ; Getting a lot of demand for this stock from several readers.
People, let me be clear here ; reading chart on this stock is "useless"
It looks like a double bottom .... so what ..... it could/may be the end of the company !
Reading chart without looking at news/fundamentals is like almost commiting suicide (financial).
Focus on the NEWS only !

Gilo, Jerusalem Israel

I did this painting in 2000, named "Gilo 2000"
See my painting blog here
You can see the latest news on the BBC (concerning the settlements and the expansion of Gilo)
PS : Painting is for sale :)

Gold analysts review

The file (PDF) is quite long, but worth reading
Dowload it here from GFM World Gold

Apple Inc. (AAPL) trading plan

Chart analysis and trading plan for Apple Inc (AAPL) ;
1) Are we facing a double top ?

2) Clear warning signal is @ $200 (your stop loss)

3) For me, the word "overbought" means that price is way too far away from its "usual" exp moving averages (50 & 200).

4) "Fundamental" overbought is another story ......

Just a quick reminder of certain ratios I like to look at ;

A) Market Cap to Revenue ; Apple ; Market Cap is 186B, Revenue is 36B

B) Now look at Dell, RIMM, Nokia, Samsung ...... mmmm

C) Price to Sales ; Apple ; 5 ; others ? Way lower ....

Why am I trying to scare you ?

An old lesson I learned a while ago ; price moving up is ok if fundamentals do follow :)

Price tends to zoom up first, lots optimism (and love story) on Apple.

Another reminder ? I am VERY bullish on Apple Inc (AAPL), BUT ...... gut feeling tells me that we should expect a sideway trade before trending higher "after" getting more good news.

PS : Do not ignore Dell or Nokia ..... they are smart too :)

Dollar versus Israel Shekel

$USD Dollar versus Israel Shekel chart analysis ;
1) Clearly broken down trend (May to mid Oct)
2) Price broke out, giving us a clear "A" level @ 3.800
3) "B" , support seems to be confirmed @ 3.750
4) "C" , the full buy signal is right above "A"
Israel is doing its best to lower the strengh of the Shekel

Huge buy signal on the British Pound ?

British Pound weekly chart analysis ;
1) ABC pattern "almost" fully activated
2) "C" trigger is right above the high seen @ "A" (1.7000)

Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK-A)

Busy reading the latest news on Warren Buffet ;

He bought stakes in Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) and Nestle SA

He also raised its stake in Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT)

Buying the number 1 railroad company was a smart move :)

Only problem now is that the SP 500 is doing better than Berkshire Hathaway Inc (BRK-A).

The SP 500 pays you a dividend .... Berkshire pays you nothing !

Chart pattern for BRKA ? Probably heading into a huge ABC pattern, let's hope its start to rally towards its "C" level.

Large Diamond, fancy yellow

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Polish : very good.
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Fluorescence none.
Feel free to contact me for the certificate

United States Natural Gas Fund ETF (UNG)

United States Natural Gas Fund ETF (UNG) ; double bottom ?
1) Would like to see "more" volume
2) Been adding shares of UNG
3) A weekly close above $9.5 is what we need now.

Pfizer Inc. (PFE)

Pfizer Inc. (PFE) weekly chart ;
1) On my radar screen
2) Forward PE ; 8 ! (cheap if you compare other big caps)
3) One thing I do not like, Low revenue to market cap .....
4) Did you buy PFE ? Use $16.5 as your stop

iShares iBoxx Investment Grade Corp Bond (LQD)

iShares iBoxx Investment Grade Corp Bond (LQD) chart analysis ;
1) Clean and clear uptrend
2) Resistance level (see chart)
3) Support level confirmed ; raise stop to $105
4) Next move ? Double top or break out ?

Apple Inc. (AAPL), no comments

Apple Inc. (AAPL) weekly chart analysis ; "no comments" :)
A picture is worth 1000 words .....
Is Apple Inc. (AAPL) in your portfolio ? It should ....
Did you miss the train ? No worries, buy and use $190 as your stop.

SP 500 chart update

SP 500 chart update ;
Buy signal intact (see exp moving averages crossovers)
Focus on that key support level (in grey)
Double top pattern in a tight congestion ; expect a violent move
Anything (news) could trigger a break out ;
Bank failure toll reaches 123 (old news priced in ?)
Billionaire Warren Buffett said that while his businesses have bottomed ; buying Berkshire Hathaway Inc (BRK.A) is probably better than your average ETF

About being a contrarian ;
John Templeton placed an order to buy $100 worth of every stock that traded on a U.S. exchange for $1 per share or less. See full story here

iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction (ITB)

iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction (ITB) chart analysis ;
1) Notice that in the first ABC pattern ; "C" (the trigger) acted as a real support level for our current "B" (in blue).
2) "B" is now confirmed, and price is back above its 200 days exp MA.
3) Next target ? Our "C" trigger (right above $14)
4) Stop loss stands @ $11.5

Gut feeling ? The US economy is REALLY improving
PS : this is post number 4000 ! Wow !

Chart of the week

Black & Decker Corp. (BDK), weekly chart.
On my radar screen (for next week)
1) If you did buy, use $55 as your stop loss level
2) Waiting for a pull back (dip) before buying

PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ), daytrading

Daytrading the PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ) ; using a 15 mn chart
1) Stop loss also reflects what can be seen on a daily chart (tight channel pattern)
2) Resistance level reflects an important buy trigger if price closes above it

Baltic dry index huge ABC pattern

Lets refer back to this post on Oct 3
The Baltic Dry Index did confirm the "B" level (by closing above 2500)
Next target ? Our "C" trigger ?
A close above "C", could send global markets flying upwards

United States natural gas fund ETF (UNG)

$NATGAS prices versus the United States Natural Gas Fund ETF (UNG)
1) Pattern on $natgas gives me a "high probabily" scenario ; bouce up on "B", and price zooming up towards "C"
2) UNG may not be the best ETF out there, but its probably the only one dealing with natural gas.

Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD)

Oct 31 article about Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)
Funny how I mentioned that I was expecting a bounce up on "B", and a big increase in volume and a gap ....
I was not in ...... mmmm
Now what ?
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is now right above the "A" level, giving us a full ABC pattern trigger.
With the SP 500 facing an important resistance @ 1100, I will wait a few days before focusing on AMD. Let investors digest the news .....

Is Motorola Inc. (MOT) back ?

Is Motorola Inc. (MOT) back ?
The company debuted two impressive new smartphones, the Cliq and the Droid, which appear to be viable competitors for Apple's popular iPhone and RIM's BlackBerrry.
Source : Businessweek

Chart ? Wait for a clear break out above $9.25 (double top) to go long

Singapore Ishares (EWS), a must own

Singapore Ishares (EWS) ;
1) Broken resistance !
2) Raise your stop to $11
Why you should own Singapore in your portfolio ?
A) Recovery is taking place in Asia ; EWS has a 53% weight in financials.
B) Bye bye Switzerland ! Yes, high net worth clients are moving to Singapore.
C) Russians are buying up luxury homes there (driving prices higher)
D) Real estate prices have risen !!!!
The "Swiss" brand is DEAD.

Monsanto Co. (MON), how to spot a reversal

Weekly chart of Monsanto Co. (MON) ;
1) Price did find "support" @ the 65-70 level
2) Volume increase confirms "support"
3) If you did buy, use $70 as your stop loss
4) Target = $90
5) A huge buy signal is a weekly/monthly close above $95 (wait for improved fundamentals first)

Current market opinion

Yahoo (YHOO) pulled the plug on Geocities (the first real blog) ; I had my first "blog" (imconsultants)there since 1998, then switched to blogger. Yahoo spent $Billions to acquire Geocities, for nothing. Removing data makes no sense ! They could have sold ads at a real discount !
Ok, yesterday was a holiday here in Belgium, spent time with the kids playing on the Nintendo Wii (they kicked my ass). Was able to beat my wife @ boxing :)
Back to the markets ; the usual suspects ;
1) The Dollar = Oversold .... way oversold. We really need some real improved economic stats from the US.
2) Gold = the word overbought makes no sense now ; I could repeat my self again, and again, so a bearish reversal could look like this ; first a break away gap, followed by a "snap" down hard.
3) Oil = expecting a break out .... big time !
4) SP 500 ; candle reversal = bearish ? Resistance @ 1100
5) QQQQ = raise your stop to $43
6) FAS = raise your stop to $78 (pattern is improving)
7) UNG = once again, a real bargain, call it your contrarian play

An event that could send crude oil to $100 ?

Light crude oil chart analysis ;
1) Tight channel (yellow) with recent chart pattern confirms that a HUGE break out is about to take place !
2) Catalyst ; we need a news event !!
3) Houthi rebels , based in Yemen (with the help of Al Qaeda) attempting to topple the Saudi monarchy ?
4) Saudi Arabia, Yemen's northern neighbor, turned its air force against suspected Houthi rebels last week.
5) Saudi forces do NOT control their borders .....
6) Incursion of Al Houthi rebels across Saudi borders was part of a well planned operation for which preparations had begun several weeks ago. Who trains them ? Al Qaeda.

Gut feeling ? Saudi forces are NOT capable to handle Al Qaeda trained fighters.