Gold weekly chart analysis

Gold weekly chart analysis ;
1) Blue circle (see chart), this is NOT what I call a serious break out ....
2) Pay attention to the "bear warning level"
3) Pay attention to the "bull warning level"
Focusing more on the Dollar index, a pull back could lead Gold up to 1150. But since I am bullish on the Dollar, we could see another fake move in Gold ....
I see the Dollar index has a "safe heaven right now".
As a value investor, do you focus on assets being long term overbought (Gold), or long term oversold ? (Dollar, US real estate, etc ....)
Unsafe world right now, park your cash in $USD and wait for a clear picture.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS) analysis

Goldman Sachs Group, Inc (GS) weekly chart analysis
Whether the stock is cheap or expensive is irrelevant. There must be a catalyst that will make it move.
1) Do we all see an inverted head and shoulder pattern ? (If true, Goldman could rise to $350 ?).
2) Do we have a clear ABC pattern ? Yes, if "B" level really holds !
3) Focus next week on that "last support level"
4) If GS breaks out above $170, the head and shoulder pattern will be activated !
5) Neckline is quite clear, it confirms "A" and "C", our real main triggers.
Gut feeling ? Expect to see Goldman come out as a real winner after this crisis.

Japan Nikkei weekly analysis

Quick look at the Japan's Nikkei index (weekly) ;
1) Focus on that trend line from the 09 March lows, use it as your "last stop loss".
2) See that fake move ? (It confirms the heavy resistance channel @ 11 000)
3) Expecting a tight channel to form, with a break out taking place in about 2 to 3 weeks from now. Main question ; what direction ? Be patient, we shall soon find out if Japan Inc is really improving ...
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Euro Dollar, what George Soros and Hedge Funds will do next week

Let me teach you a little trick that most Hedge Fund managers (like George Soros) will do in the next few days concerning the Euro Dollar ;
1) They will try to "pop" up the Euro (versus the Dollar) just to see how "strong" the downtrend really is.
2) They usually focus on fundamentals and news events, but they "pay attention" to various price levels since most traders use charts (they know the levels we look at).
3) They are now focusing on a news event that should come out very soon, and will use a break below the 1.3450 to crash the Euro

Light crude oil chart analysis

Light crude oil chart analysis (weekly) ;
1) Main trend (red) is "broken".
2) Clear resistance @ "yellow" channel (see chart)
3) Current pattern and latest price action suggest we are heading higher
4) Do NOT jump to conclusions yet ; focus on the Shangai index, it tends to "anticipate" a move in light crude oil.
5) Lots of talks/rumors of a double dip, so do not jump to conclusions yet !
PS ; If you are long, raise stop loss level to $77

SP 500 trading plan

Quick analysis of the SP 500 ($SPX). I see the following ; probable ABC pattern (inverted), now testing the "B" level (our main resistance channel, also confirmed by the 50 days simple moving average). Focus on the "warning" level (1085).

Based on current chart pattern, I see the pink arrow as the most probable "next move"

US Dollar index chart analysis

US Dollar index chart analysis ;
1) This current "tight channel" means ; expect a HUGE break out !
2) Current pattern/trend suggest we are heading to 84
3) As usual, expect the unexpected
4) Gut feeling ? We are about to fly up :)
PS : Reversal stands @ 80.25

Gold chart update and DB Gold Double Short ETN (DZZ)

Gold chart analysis ;
1) Confirmed fake move ; see "fake break out" in blue
2) Current pattern suggest we are heading to test the 1050 level
3) Ignore scenario if Gold closes the week above 1110.
DB Gold Double Short ETN (DZZ) ; $14.5 is our real break out level (on huge volume) that we need to see to go long

Move your money now

Check out this great video about why you should move your money now !

Apple Inc. (AAPL) chart update

Apple Inc. (AAPL) chart update ;
1) Back to test key level ? (see chart)
2) Notice how trends tend to end in huge price swings within a tight channel ...
3) Now what ? A pull back was expected (in most markets)
Apple, Cisco, and IBM are on my "priority list".
I'll keep you informed when I decide to buy back shares of Apple.
Right now, a close above $202.5 on increased volume would trigger a buy signal

SP 500 chart analysis

SP 500 chart update ;
1) Are we facing an inverted ABC pattern ?
2) 50 days simple moving average is our main resistance level.
3) Getting a lot of fake moves these days (see fake break above 1110)
Next target ? The 200 EMA stands around 1050 (confirms the "A" level)

Live cattle, Pork bellies, and feeder cattle

Live cattle, Pork Bellies, and Feeder cattle ...... they are on fire !
Chart above is the "live cattle".
All breaking out, and facing a nice uptrend :)

Western Lithium Canada Corp (WLC.V)

Western Lithium Canada Corp (WLC.V) chart analysis ;
1) Warning, highly volatile !
2) See that green arrow on the chart ? Wait for that pattern to take place, only buy the break out above $1.6 "AFTER" it has formed a base !

Western Lithium is developing its Nevada lithium deposit to support the new generation of hybrid/electric vehicles.
Lithium is the lightest of all metals, with a density of about half that of water. Lithium is the third element in the periodic table and the first element in Group I, the alkali metals group. Like the other metals in the group, it is so chemically active that it never occurs as a pure element in nature; it is always bound in stable minerals or salts.
Hybrid Vehicles - Hybrids have an electric motor and a small bank of batteries that assist the engine, providing boosts of power or extending the range the vehicle can go, along with an internal combustion engine. Hybrids use the gasoline engine plus regenerative braking to recharge the battery.
Financial reports

US Dollar Index chart update

Quick update for the $USD US Dollar index;
1) Pay attention to the "fake move" levels
2) Focus on the "expected scenario", green arrow on the chart.
3) Short-term rates for borrowing in euros in the forwards market are the cheapest relative to loans in dollars (Bloomberg)
4) Greece, Greece, Greece .....
PS : Uptrend intact, typical "up the stairs bullish pattern"
PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish (UUP) ; raise stop to $23.5

Various Dow stocks technicals on my watch list

1) Best uptrend ; Boeing Co. (BA), raise stop $60.
2) Best looking ABC pattern ; Walt Disney Co. (DIS), "C" trigger stands right above the high of Dec 2009.
3) Channel pattern to watch ; Alcoa Inc. (AA), wait for a clean break out above $14 on increased volume.
4) Confirmed uptrend ; Home Depot Inc (HD) , raise stop to $29
5) 50 days SMA serving as resistance ; Coca-Cola Co. (KO), Merck, Pfizer

Head and Shoulder of the week

10 Year Treasury Note Yield weekly chart ; The "Head & Shoulder pattern" of the week

Chart pattern versus gut feeling

Here is a typical case of a chart pattern versus gut feeling using the German Dax index ;
1) Support level seems quite reliable, inciting price to bounce higher to test high right above the 6000 levels.
2) The Dax did bounce up on its 200 days exp MA, and got over the 50 exp days on friday.
3) Is that an inverted ABC pattern I detect ? ("C" level , 5400, is our key trigger).
Now the gut feeling ;
1) Greece did not disclose its swap contracts
2) Greece, Greece, Greece is now a fear related keyword in the financial world.
3) Angela Merkel says ; we hope banks did not help "massage" Greece's budget.
4) Will Germany save Greece from default ?
5) Next in line ? Portugal and Spain .....
6) Maybe Europeans should THANK Greece for sending the Euro much lower, thus increasing Exports .... so why save Greece or Portugal ?
7) Banks !!!! Who holds those bonds ??
Gut feeling ? European Banks are busy figuring out how to hide their losses .....
No wonder I REALLY trust the $USD Dollar right now

Time to become a currency trader ?

"Forget hedge funds, walk away from private equity and tell the derivatives boys they can dump their baffling mathematical formulas in the dustbin under the desk.
Instead, become a currency trader. They are set to become the new kings of the financial markets."
Read the full article on Bloomberg

You probably noticed all those ads inciting you to open a Forex account, with sometimes up to 400:1 leverage !
You can even see those ads on my blog ; clients bid up the "key words" (Google ads) to be seen all over financial blogs and media.
Warning ! The majority of those ads are "White Labels", meaning ? Some fools based in some offshore account pretends to be a reliable Forex plateform.
I have trade currencies for years (over 15).
1) Do not beleive the hype and the BS ads
2) Use very low leverage
3) Use well known brokers/banks
4) Focus more on political events instead of charts.

Gold chart update

Gold chart analysis ;
1) Pay attention to that potential "fake" move (see chart)
2) Bulls will buy the break out ABOVE 1130
3) Bears will "start" to short below 1090, and increase shorts below 1050.
Gut feelings ? Time to play defense, how ? The $USD Dollar :)

Get this blog via email

Will try again Feedburner (see on the right hand side of the blog).
By subscribing, you'll get my updates via email.
I had many problems with it in the past, will try it again to see if it works :)
Once you sign up, just confirm the email :)
Enjoy :)

Euro Dollar crash, no more pilot in the plane

Euro Dollar chart update ;
1) Focus on 1.3500 , a break below will speed up the fall
2) Break down is for REAL
3) Mayday, mayday, no more pilot in the plane .....
4) Target ? Was expecting 1.3000 in May, how about in a month ??

10 Year treasury note yield, watch the chart

10 Year Treasury Note Yield chart update ;
I keep on repeating myself, but when I see an obvious pattern ....
ABC pattern, with a clear "B" level (strong support)
Stop loss ; right at the bottom of that "grey" channel ; 3.65
Consider reducing your bond holdings .....

Current market opinion, sell into strengh ?

I wrote a few days ago that the "Friday's candle reversal" was a probable signal that would incite the SP 500 to test its 50 days exp moving averages. (Resistance).
The Nasdaq got over it yesterday. (So did the Q's)
The Dow ; almost ........
The SP 500 ; not yet .....
Dow Transports ; not yet ....
Gold ; did get above it (still in a channel pattern).
Light crude oil ; back above it
XLF (Financial ETF) ; not yet ...
XLE (Energy) ; got up above it, with a gap.
Citigroup (C) and Bank of America (BAC) ; nope , nice price move with no volume.
UUP (Dollar bullish index) ; pull back, but nothing special, still in an uptrend.

My opinion ? SELL INTO STRENGH !
Wait a minute, I said that I am very bullish on US equities (big caps) ; yes, but not yet, allow the SP 500 to form a real channel first.
People, Greece, Portugal, and Spain (as well as others like Dubai) are still in deep deep sh.....
Did the market forget it ?
No, its waiting for a single real BAD news .......... and its coming ......
Do not beleive the latest hype ..... its a fake move

Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM)

Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM), long term quarterly chart ;
Billionaire Warren Buffett's company (Berkshire) has reduced its holdings in Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) by over 60%.
Did Buffett become a chart reader by spotting that huge long term parabolic rise ?

Dow Jones trading plan

This weekly chart of the Dow was posted on Jan 24 (see link here)
I maintain my opinion ; will start buying on an extreme "dip"
Very bullish for 2010 (starting in April/May)
Stick to US big caps (techs, energy, commodities)

Apple Inc. (AAPL) trading plan

Apple Inc. (AAPL) chart analysis ;
1) Support level is quite clear
2) Volume pattern ? Not really what I was expecting ....
3) Reality (1) ; The Nasdaq 100 is doing better than most markets out there.
4) Reality (2) ; Certain tech big caps are on my watch list (ie : Cisco, IBM, Google, Intel, AMD, etc ....) , so when the markets turns up, we know what to buy :)
5) Way too many bad news out there ; stay on the sideline.

PS ; Again, am expecting a pull back (in global equities) followed by a HUGE bull market.
Time to be a stock picker !
Be patient, and get ready to load up on big cap techs :)

Euro Dollar monthly chart analysis

Euro Dollar monthly chart analysis ;
Based on current events (Greece, Portugal, Spain, and probably others), I see a target of 1.2250 around Sept 2010.
Then ? Much lower.
Why ? Credibility .......... is gone .....
It made me laugh when all those economists where predicting the "end" of the Dollar.
There are NO alternatives !!!
The Euro is facing a slow death ...... Britain and other European countries where smart enough NOT to join !
People, wake up, this is not the United States of Europe !!!
Quick prediction ? Riots in the streets, and people voting for the extreme right ....

Market opinion, many reasons to stay out

I may sound like a broken record ; but once again, the $USD Dollar is the main safe heaven right now.
What else looks good out there ? Not much .....
The EU zone pretends that it will save Greece ; wait until they find out how big their "problem" is. The IMF will probably find some more "details". Next move will come from the rating agencies ; how long can they hold their desire not to down grade Greece again ?
Dubai's mess is over ? Far from it. More lies to come .....
Portugal and Spain are next.
Italy ? Well if you study the past 30 years of Italian finances, you'll soon discover why they mastered the art of wiping out the last 3 zeros in the old Lira.
These European countries have a huge parallel market !!
No one pays taxes !!! Its a national game !
Now we hear that China is trying to cool its economy .....
Bad for oil and other commodities (Copper) .....
Here comes the broken record again ; like I mentioned a few weeks ago, expecting a wide channel pattern in the SP 500. Stay out, do not attempt to short !
Watch the financial sector ; most chart patterns look really bad.

30 Year T Bond Yield rising fast

30 Year T Bond Yield keep on rising, getting close to break that resistance (see chart).
Yesterday mentioned the rise of the 10 Year Treasury Note Yield (also rising today).
Market is rising today ..... financials are not ....
Fake move ?
Bond crash on the way ?

10 Year treasury note yield chart update

10 Year treasury note yield chart analysis ;
1) Up 1.68% today !
2) Facing an ABC pattern ?
3) Focus on that key trigger

Citigroup Inc. (C), expect a violent move

Citigroup Inc. (C) chart analysis ;
We are sitting right on an important support level ; time to buy ? Not so fast.
1) Watch the volume break out
2) Focus on the re entry price level (1) and (2)
3) If price/volume action do not break out above at least level (1) on huge volume increase, ignore Citigroup

Charts on my radar screen

1) Cotton ; pattern confirms the uptrend, traders should raise stop to $70.
2) Orange Juice ; price has been now stuck in a wide channel pattern, uptrend is still intact, stop loss stands @ 130.
3) Silver ; probably oversold, but sell trigger is still intact. Stop loss stands @ $16.
4) Cruse oil ; Re entry trigger now stands @ $ 74, wide channel patterns are often very hard to trade, in any case, a fall below $70 could cause a severe down trend.
5) Natural Gas ; Mid term pattern bullish, while very long term pattern is still bearish! A break above $5.70 will confirm the mid term bullish trend, and a weekly close above $6.50 will confirm a bullish reversal in the long term pattern ! A close below $5.20 would cancel both scenarios.
6) Copper ; let's face it, the uptrend was way too steep ; the pull back was expected ! Expecting a sideway trade, it will allow a small channel to form then we shall trade the direction of the break out.
7) $USD Dollar ; so far bullish reversla is intact, did not expect price to zoom up straight, expecting an "up the stairs" pattern

Bullish on the Livestock Commodity Index

Livestock Commodity Index (Goldman Sachs) chart analysis ;
1) Typical multiple ABC pattern (very bullish)
2) "C" trigger acted as a reliable support level for the blue "B" level

Gold chart analysis

Gold chart analysis ;
1) "Last support level" is quite clear ; focus on that "short trigger"
2) Re entry is right above 1080 (it could be a fake move, triggered by investors wishing to buy the oversold condition)
3) Stay long the DB Gold Double Short ETN (DZZ), raise stop to $14.5

Euro Dollar chart analysis

Forex , Euro Dollar chart analysis ;
1) Is this the pattern we shall expect ?
2) We are probably oversold ..... and may remain oversold .....
3) Keep an eye on a 15 min chart, but focus on news events !
4) Do not tell me that Eastern European countries are doing "better" than Greece , Spain or Portugal .....
5) 1.3600 is our next "crash trigger"

Is Toyota Motor Corporation (TM) a value play ? Not yet

Toyota Motor Corporation (TM) long term quarterly chart ;
1) According to Yahoo Finance ; forward PE is 26 !
2) Market cap is 117 B, Revenue (latest) is 187 B ; would love to see the same revenue with a market cap below 90 B :)
3) See that long term support level (see chart) ; am I dreaming ?
4) Toyota is preparing a recall of its Prius model
5) How many lawsuits are out there ?
Patience, we may soon get there :)
PS : They'll fix the problem, Toyota is still a great company, give them some time

Market opinion

Friday's candle reversal (seen in most ETFs out there as well as the SP 500 and the Q's), followed by increased volume will probably be sending us higher to test the 50 days exp MA.
The 50 days exp MA (see SP 500 or QQQQ) is now our MAIN resistance level.
I am buying ? No, at least not yet.
Observing is probably 90% of the game :)

Conflict of interest ?

Trends Tendances is a financial magazine published in Belgium

How can they nominate a Bank such as UBS for the Private Banking award of 2009 ?

But of course, UBS buys full ads in that magazine constantly ..... mmmm

An award for UBS ? After all they have done in 2009 ?

No wonder people trust financial bloggers these days ......

What are most trading systems telling us ?

Just in case you ask me what systems I use , visit the following sites ;
Tradestation
Metastock (Equis.com)
PS : No, I am not being paid to promote them :)
Ok, what are most trading systems telling us ?
If you read the past 20 to 30 blog posts, you'll notice that I have turned bearish, issuing lots of "warning signals".
Like most people, I read the financial news.
Chinese bubble, PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, Spain) daily news kept on sending us lots of bad vibes out there.
Most trading systems (no matter what settings you are using), kept on telling you to sell, sell, sell ....
What do I do when my trading system tells me to sell ? I try to figure out a price target.
A few days ago, I was expecting to see the SP 500 go into a "wider channel" ; by doing so, it will allow us to buy the SP 500 in a real "oversold condition". It will also allow us to buy it at a normal PE ratio ! (Yes people, I do use fundamentals first !).
Banks will suffer ; specially banks holding bonds from those PIIGS countries ; now here comes my biggest fear ; if the PIIGS are being crashed , what other emerging countries are about to go bust ??
Some will consider this sell off as an opportunity to buy on the dip.
I am hoping for an extreme dip :)
You know what the hardest thing is ? Sitting it out, and waiting to pull the buy trigger.
What is on my mind right now ?
Direxion Daily Finan. Bull 3X Shs ETF (FAS) ; Will wait for price/volume reaction right below $55 before buying.

Gold chart update

Pay attention to these facts ;
That fake move
The "last support level"
1) PowerShares DB Gold Double Short ETN (DZZ) ; Higher lows pattern (Since Dec 7), confirms a bullish reversal ; Re entry is right above $14 on increased volume.
2) SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD) ; Raise stop to 107.5 !
3) Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) ; Real damage if it dips below $41 ; re entry is right above $44 (I doubt it will rise above it)

Euro Dollar chart analysis, most probable scenario

Euro Dollar chart analysis, most probable scenario ;
I am often asked what my opinion is regarding the Euro Dollar.
I prefer to explain it with a clear picture :)
1) First, notice the clear red down trend (it will dictate the next move)
2) Based on "recent news" (Greece, Portugal, etc ....) I see the "Blue Arrow" as the "most" probable scenario
Target is 1.3000 (May to June)

Apple Inc. (AAPL), expecting a violent break out

Apple Inc. (AAPL) chart update ;
Yes, expecting a "violent price break out"
Tight price channels patterns tend to react violently ; notice also that most traders do see the $190 price level as a key support.
PS : Do not attempt to "short" Apple ; not with these great fundamentals

SP 500 warning signal

SP 500 chart analysis with clear warning signal.
I posted a chart of the SP 500 several days ago mentioning the fact that I am expecting a wider channel pattern ; I maintain this opinion.
Pay attention to those numbers on the chart ; (1 = tight channel, can only break out hard) , (2 = bearish reversal, fake move) , (3 = last exit point, right below 1075)
Notice that we are also now facing resistance from its 50 days moving average (simple or exp).

A new investment scam out there

Being an ex Swiss based Private Banker, I've seen my shares of scams (mostly coming from various African nations, and Eastern Europe).
This latest one is busy moving around in Europe.
An ex client calls me and asks me to attend a sales presentation (without mentioning my backround).
My client is presented an amazing offer ; 100% return in 4 weeks ! (Guaranteed)
Trick 1) ; Client has to show that he has at least 1 M $USD (with due diligence done on the source of the funds)
Trick 2) ; Client's funds are never removed from his bank (they show you their contracts, urgent you to show your lawyers, and bankers).
Trick 3) ; Bank issues a confirmation that client has the 1 M $ (clean money)
Trick 4) ; The salesmen then pretends that traders in London will borrow money based on that "confirmation document" and invested in the Forex market ; he then pretends that my client will collect 100% in 4 weeks.
Salesmen usually look above 40, well dressed.
Where is the trick ? Psychological ..........
1) Safety ; they repeat over and over that your money stays with you
2) They call you everday (after market close), and tell you what they traded :)
3) After 4 weeks of daily calls, you are so pumped up that you want your 100% NOW.
4) Before paying you, they ask you to pay the traders, and the salesmen commissions.
5) You pay 5% ....... then ? Nothing comes .......
Pure psychology ......
Pass this info around
PS : your friends will be in denial at first ; telling you that your are jealous ....

Should you buy Nokia Corporation (NOK) ?

Nokia Corporation (NOK) weekly chart ;
1) Nokia seems to be forming a "confirmed channel pattern"
2) Long channels = huge break outs
3) Should you buy now ? No, at least not yet.
4) Ok, I just bought the latest Nokia for my wife's birthday : why ? Lots of great tools for a fraction of the price of most other brands.
5) We need more "improved" news, a gap up on huge volume (again)
6) $16 is our key trigger
Want to know what the NEXT pattern will look like ?
Imagine the following ; price zooms up above $18 (on no news), price pulls back (we just got the good news), price finds a base, then zooms up again above $18
Just told you what the next ABC pattern will look like on Nokia :)

PowerShares QQQ ETF (QQQQ) trading plan

PowerShares QQQ ETF (QQQQ) trading plan ;
1) Main trend is clearly broken (do not attempt to draw 10,000 trend lines, this is the main one).
2) Focus on the "last support level"
3) If price breaks above $44, it needs to do it on a huge volume and if possible ; a gap up.

Australian Dollar update

On Jan 17, I published the following post regarding the Australian Dollar (versus the $USD Dollar) ; saying that a break below 0.9100 was "highly probable"

Why was it highly probable ?

Long highly volatile pattern, breaking out of a main trend tend to warn you of a trend change.

What next ?

See support level on the chart ; a break below will cause a major sell off ....

Bullish reversal possible ? Of course ; Use 0.8900 as a confirmed re entry.

Valassis Comm, Inc. (VCI) update

On Dec 10, I posted a chart of Valassis Comm, Inc (VCI) with the ABC pattern.
It was a typical case study for the ABC pattern , mixing a reliable chart pattern with
fundamentals and news events.
VCI jumped up today over 17%
Once again, you can thank Tim Dowd for spotting that ABC pattern :)

Market opinion

Is the Shangai Stock Exchange still a reliable leading indicator ?
It was in April 2009 (see old post on the blog search) ; it did lead us higher.
What about the Baltic Dry Index ? It also did confirm a bull market in April 2009 !
Now what ?
Shangai is clearly below its "3000" key support level, about to re test the 2750 ??
The Baltic Dry Index lost 11% last week ..... (still in higher lows pattern)
What about other Asian markets ?
The Kospi (South Korea) is facing a double top but the pattern is still bullish.
Thailand SET index (also in a double top) is still in a clear uptrend.
Australia (AORD) gave us a fake break out, but still in an uptrend
Taiwan and Singapore are still in a clear uptrend ....
What about commodities ? The CRB lost over 3% last week (but the uptrend is still intact).
Crude oil ? Long term uptrend is still intact .....
So ?
Ok, gut feeling here ;
Shangai was probably clearly overbought (so was Crude Oil, the Baltic Dry Index, and other major China related commodities).
When markets face your usual retracements, the media needs to find "bad news" : the same media was quite bullish on the exact opposite reasons a few weeks ago.
I am expecting a major bullish reversal ; it will probably come from Shangai :)