Spain ishares (EWP), big warning ?

Spain ishares (EWP) chart analysis ;
1) Price/volume action yesterday should be your first warning signal
2) ABC pattern quite clear ; a close below "C" could cause some real damage
3) Focus on the warning signal level in blue
4) Price below its 200 exp MA (50 days exp MA is below its 200).
5) Volume !!!!!

Palm, Inc. (PALM), is this the end ?

Palm, Inc. (PALM) chart analysis ;
1) Hate to say it, but it looks like a REAL technical break down ....
2) Price/Volume action confirm
3) Is this the end of Palm ? (Hope not ...)
4) They lost the smartphone war ? (versus Apple)

Market opinion

The word "overbought" should be on your mind right now .....
By that I mean most market indices.
Let's quickly look at the usual suspects
Apple Computer Inc ( AAPL ) ; if you take the break out level (with a gap) at the $215, you should now expect a sideway channel "above $220". Apple is now trading at $236, traders should consider booking profits.
Bank Of America Corp ( BAC ) ; resistance level is quite clear at the $18 levels, price spread (with its 50 days exp MA) is quite high, pull back expected.
Citigroup Inc ( C ) ; got stopped on this one ....
International Business Machines ( IBM ) ; not able to break above the Jan highs, divergence in techs ?
Powershares DB US Dollar Bullish index (UUP) ; same story, still long, uptrend intact

Citigroup Inc. (C) trading plan

Citigroup Inc. (C) trading plan and chart analysis ;
1) Yes, I do own shares of Citi. The $ allocation I have set for Citi represents 3% of my portfolio, however, I have only injected 30% of that allocation ; why ? Price is fighting with its 200 days exp, and price is "overbought" compared to its 50 days exp MA. Quick reminder, Citi's 50 days is well below its 200 days exp MA.
2) Pay attention to those "rising support levels"
3) Stop loss stands @ $4.10

Pfizer Inc. (PFE) trading plan

Pfizer Inc. (PFE) chart analysis and trading plan ;
1) Price did bounce above its 200 days exp MA, zooming up to test the 50 days
2) PFE found heavy resistance at its 50 days exp MA
3) Pfizer is once again right on its 200 days, BUT, still in a higher lows pattern
4) Now look at the left of the chart, where you see the "usual high volatility prior to a break out", in reality this event occurs when those two important moving average get closer together. I expect some wild price moves right around that 200 moving average for at least 2 weeks (or earlier) until an important fundamental event is annouced, causing the break out we are all expecting.
5) Direction of the break out ? Price leads, I follow ..... do not anticipate !

Price bands versus oscillators

In my experience, price bands are more "reliable" than oscillators.
What do I mean by price bands ?
Keltner channels, Moving Average envelopes, Bollinger Bands.
Bands tend to "stick" to the price, and since price is our "leading" indicator, all we need is a buy/sell trigger.
What kind of trigger ? A short term moving average crossover USING those bands.
An entry below a band is considered a "speculative buy", a crossover above a center line is a safe buy, a crossover above the upper band is a full buy signal.
PS : The upper band is your "perfect" stop loss level

Bond crash means good news for equities ?

The first chart compares the SP 500 to the 30 Year US Treasury Bond.

The second chartcompares the SP 500 to the 30 Year T Bond Yield.

Those charts clearly tells me that a "major" bond crash is on the way.

Rates are about to break a "major" resistance level ....

Good news for equities ?

We shall soon see .....

Portfolio holding ? 95% liquidity .....

Gut feeling ? We are way overbought ....

On a sunny afternoon in Brussels

Picture taken in Brussels (Avenue Louise) while having a coffee with friends, students asking for lower fees. Main subjects was of course the Euro crash, markets being overbought, and the feeling that more bad times are coming ....

Watch the Dollar today

Euro Dollar chart analysis ; Are we heading for another break down ?
GBP/USD ; Last support stands at 1.4950
USD/JPY ; Watch the resistance level at 90.70 , broken today ?
USD/CHF ; Nice bullish reversal with a quick resistance at 1.0640
USD/CAD ; Stuck in a tight channel, needs to break above 1.0200
AUD/USD ; Long base with multiple fake bullish moves, watch support at 0.9140

American International Group, Inc. (AIG) trading plan

American International Group, Inc. (AIG) chart analysis ;
1) How do you first spot a bullish reversal ? Higher lows, breaking above trigger (see chart)
2) Then ? Your typical ABC pattern, with price zooming up to "A"
3) Now what ? Do we have a "B" (reliable support) ?
4) "C" (long term buy trigger) is quite clear :)

EMC Corporation (EMC)

EMC Corporation (EMC) chart analysis ;
1) If you do focus on tech stocks, EMC should be on your priority list
2) This pattern is quite clear ; long base with a triple top break out
3) Current pattern, tight price channel "above" the break out level
4) Pay attention to a close above $19 on increase volume
5) Stop loss stands @ $18.3

Apple Inc. (AAPL) and Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)

Apple Inc. (AAPL) and Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) ; similar charts !
Both are facing a tight price channel ready to BREAK OUT
Regarding Apple ; I see a "warning signal" at $217.5 and a gap that needs/could be close between $212.5 and $215.5
Regarding Cisco ; I see a main reversal signal right at $25.5
Quick reminder ; both stocks are in a major uptrend !
"Its a bull market that does not feel like a bull market"

Adobe Systems Inc. (ADBE)

Adobe Systems Inc. (ADBE) chart analysis ;
1) Resistance level is quite clear
2) Price/Volume action reflects a real sell off
3) Market Cap ; 18 B, Revenue 2.95 B (Ratio is quite high)
4) PE (trailing) ; 47 !
5) P/S ; 6.36 !
6) Adobe reports next Tuesday ......
7) Option traders are probably targeting the $ 33.5 level
8) Price action anticipates bad news ???

Euro Dollar chart analysis

Quick update for the Euro Dollar ;
1) Still bearish, main trend is still down, with clear "down the stairs patterns"
2) Pay attention to the "yellow" levels, price will often try to re test the 50 days SMA.
3) Focus on those "fake moves/spikes" (right below 1.3500)
4) 1.3500 is now our first key trigger, with 1.3450 as a "main short trigger"
5) Target is still 1.3000 (early May), and 1.1800 in Dec

Shangai Stock Exchange and the Renminbi

Will we see a global shock effect of a sudden large revaluation of the Renminbi ?
Pay attention to the Shangai Stock Exchange, focus on the break out (up) level we need to be in a bull market (3250).
Focus on the "crash below" level , slightly above the 2750 levels.
The US and the IMF keep on pushing China to revaluate the Renminbi, but do they understand the potential impact ?

Recent Twitter updates

Quick Twitter update
http://twitter.com/moiselevi

1) $PFE, Is Pfizer oversold ? Price right on its 200 exp MA, buy trigger right above 17.5 (watch the volume)
2) $AA, Alcoa, re entry activated, clean break out on increased volume, stop loss stands at 13.5
3) $F, Ford Motor Co, time to sell on strengh ? Pattern shows a probable parabolic rise, book your profits now
4) $UUP, US Dollar index ETF bouncing up on its 50 and 200 days exp moving average

What a chart of Sugar can teach us about Gold

Quick case study on Sugar, using the ABC pattern ;
1) "A" is basically the high point where price zooms up (before we get the news), then, as usual, when the news come out, we get a reversal, and price tries to find a support level until more news come out to confirm the initial one.
2) "C" is basically your break out point, it is also your MAIN stop loss !
3) Sugar did not form a higher channel pattern in 2010
Pay attention to these kinds of patterns since you tend to notice them when markets are way too mature. It seems that we often get quick spikes up prior to a major reversal.
What am I trying to tell you ?
Look at a weekly chart of Gold ; according to the ABC pattern (using "C" as your main stop loss), your last stop stands right @ 1000.
We have a clear "A" in Gold ; we seem to have a "B" around 1050
If you did buy Gold, use 1100 as your warning level and 1050 as your stop

General Electric Co. (GE)

General Electric Co. (GE) chart analysis ;
Its probably one of the "safest set up" ; a long base triple top break out on huge volume.
Place your stop @ $17

Citigroup Inc. (C) trading plan

Citigroup Inc. (C) chart analysis ;
1) Re entry re activated
2) Pay attention to the stop loss level
3) Warning, expect high volatility
4) Not expecting Citi to zoom up fast, probably heading towards a sideway pattern

George Soros speaking with students on investing and life in general.

On my radar screen

1) The pound weakened again after Moody’s said the U.K. is close to losing its top credit rating !
2) Euro/Dollar ; reversing the bounce up (from oversold condition) ; watch 1.3650 ! (short trigger will re activate below)
3) GBP/USD ; watch the 1.5000 !
4) USD/JPY ; watch the 91 levels , key long trigger
5) Crude oil ; watch support @ 80.50
6) Nat Gas ; way oversold, watch the resistance @ 4.5
7) Live cattle ; as mentioned before, stay long ! Best looking trend :)
8) $USD Dollar index ; confirmed support @ 80, raise stop to 80.20 , a break above 80.40 will send the $USD zooming up again

The saga of an investor

Love to post this picture again ; so true ....

Apple Inc. (AAPL), buy the rumor sell the news ?

Apple Inc. (AAPL) chart analysis ;
1) Support mentioned in a past post was "reliable"
2) Trigger mentioned in a recent post confirmed the ABC pattern
3) Apple then had our little GVN (Gap, increased Volume, and News release)
Please remember that I have been bullish on Apple for a long time, but as a trader, I avoid the "hype" from the news media ; often turns into a buy the rumor and sell the news ....
Buy when you feel its right !
We could see another spike up, but allow it to reverse HARD before injecting cash.
Apple is a heavyweight in the QQQQ (Nasdaq 100), creating some strange divergence, like thinking that all tech stocks are breaking out ..... they are NOT !
Apple's market cap is almost bigger than Wal-Mart Stores (WMT)..... mmmm
Wal-Mart has 408 B revenue (market cap is 205 B)
Apple has 46 B revenue (market cap is 204)
So lets see if Apple can INCREASE its revenue and increase its ROE like IBM's (74%!)

Citigroup Inc ( C ) trading plan

Citigroup Inc ( C ) chart analysis ;
1) Confirmed channel break out on increased volume
2) We had our GVN condition (Gap, Volume, and News), we are now heading for an ABC pattern.
3) See green arrow for "probable scenario"
4) Ideal buy/entry ; "B" level ; meaning, a pull back to $3.90

Current pattern in most stocks

If you look at most charts out there, you'll see the same kind of pattern ;
1) Slight to big parabolic rise
2) Sharp fall, giving us a clear support level
3) A bounce up on that support, giving us the impression that we are about to test the recent highs.
4) The big indexes are close ot their highs (ie : SP 500), but most stocks are NOT !
Conclusion ; focus on that "short" and "long trigger"
PS : Why is the "long trigger" not above the resistance ? Experience teaches me that a trigger is often getting above a reversal.

Magna International Inc. (MGA), the lithium chase

Magna International Inc. (MGA), weekly chart ;
1) Pay attention to that stop loss level
2) I will not buy it today, will wait a few days to see how MGA reacts within that tight channel.
The Nytimes has a great story regarding the "Lithium Chase"

Sold, back in cash

Sold into strengh stocks I posted several days ago, specially Citigroup Inc. (C) and Bank Of America Corp ( BAC ).
Back in cash, waiting on the side to see how "fake" this move is .....

Light crude oil chart analysis

Light crude oil chart analysis ;
1) We are probably all wondering when crude oil will break above that clear resistance channel, thus sending prices above $84, aiming for $100 , meaning that demand is back, the crisis is over, and that China (via the Shangai exchange index) will zoom up over 10% .....
2) Quick fact ; we are still in a WIDE channel pattern ! (Dec 09 to today)
3) Crude zoomed up from its low of Feb 2010 without a retracement !!!
Gut feeling ? I see the green arrow (scenario 1) as the most probable bext move

Apple Inc. (AAPL) chart update

Apple Inc. (AAPL) chart update ;
1) Last post on Apple, I mentioned that 202.5$ was "the trigger".
2) We have a multiple buy pattern ; ABC, GVN, Break Out .....
So how come I did not buy ???
Gut feeling ....
Seen way too many fake moves these days, so let's allow Apple to pull back, and enter safely on a real catalyst (high impact news).

SP 500 chart update

SP 500 chart analysis ;
1) First, some quick facts ; we have a clear resistance and a trendline
2) Still expecting a sideway trade, longer channel. So basically expecting some wild swings, but not major break out.
3) See green arrow on the chart for the scenario I have in mind.

Looking back at the short master cartoon

This cartoon was published on July 29, 2009 : )

Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS)

Great video on Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS)

Euro Dollar chart analysis

Euro Dollar chart analysis ;
1) The channel is now quite clear
2) A catalyst , we need one right now ! (Another Greek downgrade ?)
3) 1.3450 is my next trigger

Good news from the Baltic Dry Index

Baltic Dry Index chart analysis ;
1) I like to use a moving average crossover (5 & 20 days exp MA) ; buy activated.
2) 3000 level is often a reliable trigger
3) This break out also broke the downtrend from the Nov 2009 high
4) Baltic Dry up over 7%, good news for commodities ?

SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)

SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD) chart analysis ;
1) Resistance level is quite clear
2) Are we facing a Head and Shoulder pattern ?
3) Latest trendline gives us a stop @ $110
4) The 110 to 112 resistance level has seen several fake moves ....
Gut feeling ? Not bullish on Gold. (At least not yet).

Scary chart

I read dshort.com daily ;
"If I'm reading the chart right, from 1901 to 1982 the index was breakeven?"
Read the full article here

Charts on my watch list

1) Citigroup Inc ( C ); clear resistance @ its 50 days exp MA. We now need a clear break out above $3.50 on increased volume. See the volume pattern recently ? Way too quiet, needs a break out !
2) Ford Motor Co ( F ) ; all signals are bullish. Was that break out a false move ? Price did reverse on increased volume). Raise your stop to $11.75.
3) Pfizer, Inc ( PFE ) ; short and mid term signals are still bearish, price stuck in a real tight channel, we now need a break out above $18.2 to zoom up again. Potential ABC pattern, so pay attention to PFE, a probable must own if we get back above $18.2.
4) Advanced Micro Devices Inc ( AMD ) ; nice price break out above $8.2, but I "do not" like the looks of yesterday's candle reversal .... it confirms that $8.6 is a major resistance level ! Expect a probable tight channel to form below $8.6, following an attempt to break above it in about 2 to 3 weeks.

Charts on my watch list

1) iShares Trust FTSE China ( FXI ) ; latest pattern suggest bullish reversal.
2) United States Steel Corp ( X ) ; mentioned it several weeks ago, support did hold, raise stop to $53.
3) iShares MSCI Brazil Index ( EWZ ) ; ABC pattern starting in early Feb ?
4) Motorola, Inc ( MOT ) ; bearish call on this one several months ago, bounced higher on oversold conditions, now moving lower ... again ...
5) The Mosaic Co ( MOS ) ; a must own, raise stop to $59
6) Potash Corp Saskatchewan ( POT ) ; a must own, raise stop to $110.5
7) Tata Motors Ltd ( TTM ) ; great bullish reversal, raise stop to $16.5

United States Natural Gas Fund, LP (UNG)

Time to buy the United States Natural Gas Fund, LP (UNG) ?
1) Catalyst ; we need one !
2) Volume, a gap, and some bullish news .....
3) Entry 1 stands right above $8.8 ; meaning ? Would buy a small position right above that level, and increase above $9
4) Sitting on a reliable support ? We shall soon see .......

Where is the Greek smart money moving to ?

Real estate brokers in Brussels (friends of mine), just called to inform me that many Greek citizens are buying expensive properties in Brussels to "park" their cash, fearing the new measures at home.
They also confirmed that they are targeting Paris, London and Geneva ....

Copper chart update

Copper "weekly" chart analysis ;
1) Yes, the situation in Chile caused the latest gap up.
2) The long term chart is still the same ; that trendline is "still" broken since we have not made a higher close yet ....
3) Pattern still suggest a double top, and a probable return to a "channel pattern".
Chart can be found @ finviz.com