Huge head and shoulder in Copper ?

$Copper weekly chart ;
1) Resistance / Neckline is quite clear ; 380 to 400 channel
2) LS & RS are quite clear
3) Bullish on Shanghai index, a close above 3150 should send copper above 400.
4) Target ? Above 600 within 12 months

The Thailand Set index chart analysis

Thailand Set index, weekly chart ;
1) Notice a typical "top" and "bottom" pattern (see chart)
2) Political events (red and white shirts movt) caused a short term panic, but great fundamentals brought the Set index back on fire.
3) Expecting a sideway pattern (with wild swings); price trend is "too steep", and the govt is trying to bring the Baht down.

Is Natural Gas back ?

Natural Gas daily ($NATGAS) ;
1) Confirmed double bottom pattern ? Price action seems to confirm.
2) Entry levels ; first one is right above 4.2 ; meaning ? Biuld positions only if price goes above those entry levels. Add more positions as price climbs above them. Full buy level is @ 6.

The Euro and Greece are not connected anymore ?

Pay attention to the "connection" the Euro had with Athens General share index until Sept.
It lost its "connection".
Greece's index lost almost 2%, and was not able to get over its lower highs pattern (from Aug high)
2 possible scenarios ;
1) The Euro pulls back (due to another Greek tragedy)
2) Athens General Share index zooms up as the Euro anticipates "better news" ???
Athens needs to close above the 1600 levels "SOON", or face a test of June's lows ....

Apple Inc. (AAPL) chart analysis

Apple Inc. (AAPL) chart analysis ;
1) The pull back expected did take place, the blue uptrend was "too steep".
2) Every indicator is still bullish
3) Focus on this circled level (280-290), expecting a bullish price reversal on increased volume pattern.

Chart du jour

Gold daily chart ;
We now have a clear "trigger level" to go short if Gold goes again below that key support level.
SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD) ; key trigger level stands @ right below 128

10 Year treasury note yield

10 Year treasury note yield shows two clear buy trigger levels ;
1) Broken down trend
2) Focus on those two trigger levels (go long and short bonds)

Safe patterns or contrarian ?

First, let me show you some stocks that have triggered a full ABC pattern buy signal, add to that a "all time high" and you probably have huge winners in front of you ;
Red Hat inc com ( RHT )
Altera Corp (ALTR)
Biogen Idec (BIIB)
Usana Health Sciences Inc (USNA)
(There are other stocks with similar patterns, but I only add the stocks on my watch list)
Now, let me show you a stock with a "all time low" ;
Allied Irish Banks Ads (AIB)
Ok, what's my point ?
Well, the majority of traders will tend to SELL at all time high, and focus on stocks like AIB since in their minds, they are seing a "cheap stock" .....
Ok, we can assume that the Irish Govt will not let a bank go down, so I can understand the "contrarian approach" .....
The truth is, when the markets will shoot up, those all time high patterns are safer entry points than a contrarian "hope"

Bullish pattern in financial ETF (XLF)

Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF) chart analysis ;
1) Notice how prior to that break out from the red trend line, price had wild "swings".
2) After the break out, XLF started to have less volatility, ending up in a tight channel, getting ready to break out on the upside (see light green arrow scenario)

Forex, Euro Dollar analysis

Back in Brussels ; Good to be home, long flight, and three weeks was more than enough.
Ok, let's see what the Euro Dollar is trying to tell us ;
1) The "main trend" (red) is intact
2) The blue trend (steep blue uptrend) is broken
3) Price stuck in a clear channel
4) One key support level right below 1.3700
5) Could we see a break of that key support level and still be in an uptrend ? So far most indicators are still pointing up.
6) Probability that we re visit the "C" level ? Low to medium, meaning I doubt it.
7) Why did I write on the chart ; "how old is this uptrend ?" Experience teaches me that in certain currencies, "time" can play a major role in trend reversal
8) Pay attention to the $USD Dollar index ; it could be trying to form a bottom.
9) Has the currency war started ?

CAC 40, France Index

CAC 40 , France Index, weekly chart ;
1) Keep it simple, pay attention to the "key levels"
2) Key resistance became our "key support level"
3) Note the WILD swings on that support level (with higher lows)
4) Could we see another fake move (see those 2 fake break outs) ?
5) All facts point to a major break out, heading above 4100
6) What about all those strikes in France ?
7) Price focuses on future events, all bad news are "priced in"
8) Real value can be found in European Banks

Tight channel pattern

Greetings from Phuket (Thailande), been very lucky with the sun since most of the region is being hit by floods .....
Expecting current trends to remain "as they are", but going into tight channel patterns.
Break outs from those patterns is a signal that should incite you to add positions.
Expect the unexpected ? Maybe we could see some wild moves from the $USD Dollar index this weekend ......
$USD Index triggers
1) Bullish above 78.5
2) Bearish below 77
3) Current position is still "bearish"
4) Probably oversold, watch out for any major high impact news event

Time to buy Bank of America Corporation (BAC)

Bank of America Corporation (BAC) weekly chart ;
1) Buying shares of BAC right now
2) Will increase purchases when/if price spikes down (hoping for an extreme oversold)
3) Pure contrarian play

Gold ETF (GLD), does the volume pattern confirm a top ?

Gold ETF (GLD) chart analysis ;
1) Parabolic rise
2) Gap down on increased volume
3) Pay attention to that recent volume pattern (see red box)
4) $USD Dollar's recent move confirms reversal ?
5) To early to short Gold, patience ......... :)
6) DZZ (Gold double short ETN) needs to form a base first)

Bond crash ?

Focusing on bonds right now ; chart above is the 20 + year treasury bond fund (ETF).
1) Broken trend
2) Lower highs
3) Sitting on key support
4) Focus on price/volume action right below 100
5) Trigger (to go short) could come as a gap down
6) Rates and the $USD Dollar are rising ......

Apple Inc. (AAPL), key market leader

Apple Inc. (AAPL) weekly chart analysis ;
1) Key market leader (focus on AMZN, IBM, and GOOG as well) ; we still need to see semi conductors rise ....
2) Break out level is now our key stop loss level (see chart)
3) Expected scenario ; see light green arrow
4) Main trend line could also be used as a stop loss level

Huge head and shoulder in QQQQ

Weekly chart , QQQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) ;
1) We just broke above that neckline
2) Pattern is quite clear
PS : It reminds me of that call I made a while ago that Apple inc (AAPL) will reach $400, I was called a nuts :)

Leading indicators

My 2 leading indicators (Shanghai & Crude Oil) are basically confirming that the BULL market is back ....

US Dollar index chart update

$USD US Dollar weekly chart analysis ;
1) Pay attention to that "key support level"
2) Currency wars means US Dollar moves higher ?
3) Just to give you an idea ; being right now in Thailand, the local press reports daily the need to "lower the "Baht" vis à vis the US Dollar (really hurting exports).
4) How many countries right now are screaming "lower our currencies NOW ?"
5) Focus on that blue arrow scenario on that chart

Focusing on Bonds

Greetings from Phuket :)
Visiting several islands around .... with heavy rains ..... oh well .....
Pay attention to the Bond market (30 Year Treasury) ;
1) Broken trend confirmed
2) Lower highs
3) Focus on that KEY support level
PS : Uptrend is still intact, but we are probably WAY overbought

SP 500 chart update, ABC versus an Head and Shoulder

If you have been reading me for a while, you've noticed that I was quite bullish a few weeks ago, and buying a few stocks and ETFs.
I am still bullish.
It was not easy to be bullish while most "well known" gurus where still expecting another severe crash ..... leading to a double dip .....
The SP 500 weekly chart is quite easy to read right now ;
We have a full ABC pattern versus a possible right shoulder (Head and Shoulder)
What do we need to confirm that "right shoulder" ? A close below 1125.
Warning ; We still have a lot of BEARS out there ......
Gut feeling ? A few months ago I call this dip the mother of all "buy on the dip" ; I still see a huge bull market on the way, with leading indicators (Shanghai and Crude Oil) telling us that 2011 and beyond should be great.
Enjoying the good times in Phuket (Thailand), busy visiting a few properties :)
Still waiting for my eventual home run (Gold crash)
Yes people, I am very patient, and just waiting for a few analyst to question the value of Gold.
Gold will top eventually, and I'll be right there buying all those cheap put options (out of the money).
Let it rise ...... the faster it goes up ..... the harder it will fall :)
I call Gold the "mother of all parabolic rises" :)
If you plan to move to Phuket ; here is a great business idea ; open up a bookstore (English, French, Spanish, Italian, ....etc ......) and let every hotel know about it :)

Updates from Phuket

Heavy rain yesterday night, internet connection was "kaput" !
Just updated a few things on top of the blog, and raising a few stops.
Japan is back !
IBM & NOK are doing quite well ; Lets call Nokia a turn around story :)
Financials are doing well, but would be more bullish when XLF breaks above the $15 level.
Buy & Hold ? Probably Citi and BAC
PFE, Pfizer is up to something good ...... expect some good news (great chart pattern)
Tonight's program ? Patong ...... mmmmm

Trading system update

Greetings from Phuket, raining this morning ...... (Last night in Patong was fun)
Focusing on the Nikkei's move (after the BOJ lowered rates to "0") ; signal still not issuing a "buy" yet ....
Key political event ; Japan and China decided to improve ties.
Oil price action confirms that global markets should bounce up "soon".
Most indexes are still in a "buy mode"
Conclusion ; still long

Phuket, Thailand

Greetings from Phuket. Long flight, but all is fine, cool hotel ;
http://www.phuket-cannacia.com/
Got the wifi on, back from the beach :)
If you read on my blog that the DOW is going to 36,000 ..... forget it, its probably me drunk writing some BS.

Market opinion

Quick reminder about my trip to Thailand (3 weeks) ; I will heading there this weekend so blogging will be light. Pay close attention to the stop loss levels (seen on top of the blog).
Chart above is the SP 500 ;
1) Support level is quite clear
2) Trigger level is also quite clear (1150)
3) Financials did wake up, but the real winner was the energy sector (XLE, and OIH).
4) Good price/volume action from Citigroup Inc ( C ), but would love to see Bank Of America Corp ( BAC ) above $14 next week. That will send the SP 500 above the "trigger level".
-----------------------------
Apple Computer Inc ( AAPL ) ; Last year I made a call that Apple will trade @ 400. It will not be an easy task. I expect several "up the stairs" patterns ; Meaning ? Focus on the recent price channel, expect more of them to come. I do not expect price to zoom up in a parabolic rise. Most good news is priced in.
International Business Machines ( IBM ) and Nokia Corp. (NOK); mentioned both of them on my blog several days ago ; How should you play this one ? I am actually having 1% of my portfolio in Nokia and 2% in IBM.
BRIC's are back ? ; iShares MSCI Brazil Index ( EWZ ) and the Russia ETF (RSX) are a must own. India ETFs or funds, never had a sell signal, that clearly tells you that India will lead and most people are betting on China ... mmmm
I was asked a simple question ; What 4 stocks would you buy and hold ?
Voilà ; Pfizer, Inc ( PFE ), Exxon Mobil Corp ( XOM ), Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS), Wal-Mart Stores (WMT).