Heading to Morocco, agricultural project

PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund (DBA) chart analysis ;
1) Long base pattern
2) Break out is clear
3) Bull market in agricultural "JUST" started
Often do some business in imports/exports and real estate (Thailand).
This time, heading to my mother's homeland (she was born and raised in Casablanca), in order to buy some agricultural land (with a partner).
Reason is simple ; Land is really cheap (compared to most real estate there), great fruits and vegetables (at amazing prices), close to the EU, and close to Central Africa.
The idea is to supply some clients in the Benelux region.
Next step is to bring cows from Holland to Morocco.
The region is called "Meknes".
If you are interested , just send me an email, and I'll update you with local possibilities.
So no blogging for the next 10 days ..... hope nothing funny happens :)
PS : The SP 500 has a typical cup and handle pattern ; so allow the "handle" to form (its a tight channel), then expect a major bullish break out.
Bad news are probably "priced in" ........ they do not affect the SP anymore !

Price Volume action

The following stocks are now on my watch list ;
Main reason ? Price / Volume action
Note that price/volume action occured right around their 50 days Exp MA.
Bullish moves
Mylan Labs ( MYL )
Dell Computer Corp ( DELL )
Marvell Technology Group ( MRVL )
SEAGATE Tech SHS ( STX ) ; typical ABC pattern !
-----------------
Short warning !
Intuit Inc ( INTU )

Key level to watch in Gold

Gold daily chart analysis ;
1) Price did find support at its 50 days simple MA
2) Is that a head and shoulder pattern ? No, we still do not have a right shoulder !
3) Key level is clear, if broken, we could face a pull back to its 200 MA
4) The blue arrow is on my mind right now, a probable channel pattern.
Related ETF/ETN ; SPDR Gold Trust ETF GLD) , Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) and PowerShares DB Gold Double Short ETN (DZZ).

Bullish reversal in the Natural Gas Fund ETF (UNG) ?

United States Natural Gas Fund, LP (UNG) chart analysis ;
1) Do we have a bottom pattern ?
2) Typical ABC pattern, with "A" reversing right above the 50 days exp MA.
3) Buy level is right above the "trigger"
4) We need a volume break as well

US Dollar index, a scary chart ?

$USD Dollar index chart analysis ;
1) The neckline is our present "resistance" level
2) Clear head and shoulder pattern
3) Now here comes the HUGE warning ; This pattern, meaning a break below the neckline, where prices "dive", then attempt a comeback to be blocked by our key resistance (neckline) would confirm the head and shoulder pattern .....
4) A break below 78 will cause SEVERE damages .....
5) Is this scenario possible ? As usual, expect the unexpected .....
6) Focus on these two ETFs ;
PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish (UUP)
PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bearish (UDN)

Energy ETF (XLE)

Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) chart analysis ;
Imagine you are an FBI agent facing a murder scene ; You are not supposed to come with emotions, you just need the "facts" in order to draw a probable move/motive :)
Focus on the facts (see the chart) ; they all point to ;
1) Uptrend intact
2) Uptrend was "too steep", and price rose too fast.
3) Current pattern = Probable move is a channel pattern, waiting for Shanghai to rise again and send this ETF back above $64

Euro Dollar chart update

My trading system is still bearish on the Euro Dollar.
The good news ? Ireland, and the EU mechanism to save/help it.
Pay attention to the trigger level ; Bullish above it
Also focus on the level where I mention "fake move ?" ; Consider 1.3500 and below as a confirmation of the bearish move.

Buy Ireland and go away

IRL closed end fund infos

The New Ireland Fund, Inc. (IRL) chart analysis ;
Facing a highly probable ABC pattern
Discount is 16%
Call this a value play, will build positions today, and increase if the fund goes lower.

Bond ETF (TLT) did bounce on its 200 days MA

As mentioned on my Twitter account, "lets watch the price reaction" on its 200 days moving average. It did bounce up on it.
iShares Barclays 20+ Yr Treas.Bond ETF (TLT) chart analysis ;
1) Short trigger is intact
2) Focus on the stop loss level
3) Was clearly oversold
4) Increase shorts below 94

Time to go shopping

Buying the following ;
Citigroup Inc ( C )
Bank Of America Corp ( BAC )
Ishares emerging markets ETF (EEM)
Direxion Daily Finan. Bull 3X ETF (FAS)
Alcoa Inc ( AA )
iShares Trust FTSE China ( FXI )
Hope to buy more on an oversold/spike down
The bull market is intact , normal pull back after a steep uptrend.
And yes, Ireland will be saved ; Europe's credibility is at stake

The best source of infos regarding Oil, Natural Gas, Coal, Metals, Shipping

www.platts.com

Platts is the leading global provider of energy and metals information and the world’s foremost source of benchmark price assessments in the physical energy markets.
From an original focus on the oil industry, Platts gradually expanded its purview to include metals, shipping, and all energy-related markets – oil, coal, natural gas, electricity, nuclear power, petrochemicals, renewables, and emissions.
Platts publishes news, research, commentary, market data and analysis, and more than 8,500 daily price assessments that are widely used as benchmarks in both physical and futures markets. It delivers real-time news and price information and end-of-day price data directly to clients’ desktops; publishes more than 60 newsletters and reports; and produces over 50 sector-specific conferences every year.

US Dollar index key trigger level ?

$USD Dollar index key trigger level ?
My trading system is still "flat" ; meaning ? No position taken
Most indicators are still bearish
Wait for a clear price break out (above the key trigger), and probably expect a "fake move".
Focus on the RISK, not the REWARD
Ideal scenario to go long ? A clear price break out with a key news event

Dollar versus Israel Shekel

Dollar versus Israel Shekel chart analysis ;
1) Current price stands @3.6702
2) Buy trigger was activated (long Dollar)
3) Focus on key support, it also confirms the trigger (buy level)
4) Warning ; long term trend is STILL down

Apple Inc. (AAPL) chart study

Apple Inc. (AAPL) chart analysis ;
1) The facts, just give me the facts !
2) Broken uptrend
3) Price/Volume action seem to confirm short term double top. Why short term ? Experience teaches me that "WIDE double top pattern" tend to be reliable in spotting reversals, short time frame double top often means "tight channels".
4) Probabilities ; Since price was "far away" from its 50 days moving average, we could face a pull back (pink arrow scenario). The other scenario (yellow arrow) means we resume the uptrend. (Note that both scenarios are BULLISH)
5) The main trend is up, nothing has changed

Focus on Shanghai

Focus on the Shanghai index, I am almost tempted to say "forget the rest" .....
Pull back we faced this week was "quite normal"
Think about it, fast steep up trend need to "rest".
Did you forget that fundamentals need to follow ?
This next key light green trigger will be broken by more improved fundamentals (so pay attention to key news events, ie : The ECB saves Ireland, or injects a massive amount of cash .... blablabla ..... bottom line, that news will trigger a massive rally)
I am VERY bullish on any commodity that China needs

The best US blue chip

Alcoa Inc ( AA ), the best US blue chip.
1) If you have been reading this blog for several years, you know that I often deal in import/export. (The demand for Aluminum is HUGE)
2) The demand from China is on fire
3) Alcoa's chart pattern ; a long base, with a clear ABC pattern
4) Main key trigger stands @ "C" level
5) Global player with a cheap $USD Dollar :) (Watch out for mergers !)

Time to call the short master ?

"Fear" is back, but do NOT fight a clear uptrend.
Gut feeling ? Get ready for some big buy on the dip

US Dollar index chart analysis

$USD Dollar index chart analysis ;
1) When you see several "spikes down", you know that there is an attempt to form a bottom pattern ; Is this pattern reliable ? No ! The most reliable is a higher lows (we still do not have that).
2) We do have a clear resistance level (see trigger long on the chart)
3) Trigger short is based on my trading system
News, News, News
G20 meeting ; Warning, we are facing a currency war !
The world is blaming America for pursuing a policy of currency weakening.
The Euro zone and Japan are facing a weak economy with a strong currency .....
Then we have another fool (shmuck) calling for a return to the Gold standard !
They (the G20) will talk a lot, pretend to agree on some BS statement, smile a lot .... but in the end, its all about those trigger levels you see on the $USD Dollar index chart.
"THEY" can manipulate your brain, but NOT the chart !

Gold, the good news

Gold daily chart analysis. Ok, what so good about it ?
1) Price tells you what to do ; yesterday's candle is an "alarm"
2) Warning level is clear
3) Book profit level is clear
4) Short level is clear
5) Or are we just due for a rest, and enter a sideway trade ?
PS : "The market is NEVER obvious, it is designed to fool you most of the time"

Clear message from the 10 Year US Treasury Note Yield

10 Year US Treasury Note Yield chart analysis ;
1) See those three little circles on the bottom ? Pattern is quite clear, expect a bullish move.
2) Light green arrow = high probable move

Shorting LT US bonds, lower stop loss level

30 Year US Treasury Bond ;
1) Another broken support level
2) Stay short, lower stop loss level
3 Risk ? SP 500 is overbought while Bonds are oversold .... Do NOT expect a sudden drop.

SP 500 versus the Vix

Focus on 2 key levels ;

1) The trigger/resistance level on the SP 500

2) The Vix level that reflects the last April/May reversal ; level coincides with the SP 500 present resistance.

3) Is the Vix telling us that we shall face a major reversal ? I doubt it. It just tells us that we are overbought, due for a sideway pattern (SP 500)

Euro Dollar chart update

Euro Dollar chart analysis ;
1) Experience teaches me that after a run up, price needs to REST into a sideway pattern.
2) The blue arrow scenario is what I consider the "most probable".

Bullish on global trade, focus on Shipping

DryShips Inc. (DRYS) chart analysis ;
1) Chart reflects my opinion on the Shanghai Stock Index (Very Bullish)
2) Price/Volume action by DRYS confirms bullish opinion on shipping companies.
3) Expecting shipping rates to rise fast (Crude oil effect)

The mother of all bull markets thanks to Shanghai

Just type "Shanghai" in my blog search (see top left), and you'll notice that I use it as my leading indicator. Was able to call the bottom of the bear market thanks to the bullish break out Shanghai did in Feb 09.
You'll notice that I am also quite bullish on crude oil and copper.
I am expecting a MEGA HUGE bull market, driven by China.
Once the Shanghai index gets above the 3400 level, all markets will be on fire ..... until the next bubble ..... (I'll keep you informed if I see a parabolic rise).
A while ago I called this bear market the mother of all buy on the dip :)

Bank Of America Corp ( BAC )

Quick case study on Bank Of America Corp ( BAC ) ;
1) Note that I pay more attention to price/volume action than all those other useless technical "lagging" indicators.
2) Why add a moving average ? Traders tend to add one or two (or more), so it helps me notice at what levels they tend to act.
3) The recent "volume" action does confirm one fact ; BAC has found a bottom
4) The gap up on huge volume (GVN condition) is your initial buy trigger.
5) Now what ? Friday's candle reversal shows how important the 50 days exp MA is !
6) Expecting a tight channel, followed by the "real break out" that should take place in a few weeks above $13.

Chart du Jour ( DRL )

Doral Financial Corp ( DRL ) chart analysis ;
1) Higher lows pattern confirmed by price/volume action
2) ABC pattern "almost fully activated"
3) Typical GVN condition today (Gap, Volume and key News event)
4) The "comeback" could be huge ..... but be patient, wait for the key break out and MORE confirmed improved news .....

Chart du jour, LT US Bonds

30 Year US treasury bond chart analysis ;

1) Main up trend is "broken".

2) Lower highs confirm the bearish reversal

3) Focus on that key level (see chart)

Reliable chart pattern

Cemex Sab de Cv ( CX ) chart analysis.
This pattern needs ;
1) Higher lows, wide higher lows of at least 2 to 3 months (or more)
2) Volume action on higher lows
3) A clear trigger level (main resistance)
4) A price break out on increased volume

US Dollar versus Israeli Shekel

$USD Dollar versus Israeli Shekel ;
1) Key resistance confirms a down trending 50 days simple moving average.
2) Recent higher lows are an attempt to form a bottom ? We shall soon see.
3) If the Dollar can remain "above" 3.6 (5 to 10 days) ; we could get a confirmed higher lows pattern (bullish reversal).
4) If not, expect a test of the Oct lows

SP 500 chart analysis

SP 500 chart analysis ;
1) Expect a heavy fight between the blue and light green scenario
2) The good news ? Well both scenarios are bullish ?
3) The blue scenario expects a normal pull back in order to buy on the dip
4) The light green scenario expects that the results of the election will send the market zooming up, above its key resistance level.
5) Let's NOT guess, that is why I place two red triggers
6) Note that we could remain stuck between these two triggers ......
7) Financials will play a BIG part of the bullish break out, so focus on XLF

Citigroup Inc ( C ) trading plan

Citigroup Inc ( C ) trading plan ; This is basically how I proceed when I focus on a stocks.
1) That long light grey support channel (3.5 to 3.6) was my first "trigger".
2) In late Aug, price managed to stay above it.
3) Then ? Price/volume action plus a break out gave me a level 1 buy ; What is a level 1 buy ? Its simply a 10 to 20% of the amount of money you decided to allocate to "Citi". (A stop loss of at least 6 to 8% should be used).
4) Notice then that price came back to "test" that break out level, it was followed by another break out (another position taken, level 2), price came back to test that level again, and moved up.
5) Pay now attention to that next break out level ; A real important resistance where you should expect a lot of buyers to come in. (Level 3 buy).

Chart du jour (JKS)

JinkoSolar ( JKS ) chart analysis ; Pattern looks amazing, great price/volume action, but thanks, no thanks, I'll pass on this one ...... WHY ??
1) Other solar panel players are having a hard time
2) Based in China ...... mmmm
3) Saying that exports will increase to France, Belgium, and Italy ..... They probably have not heard about austerity measures, and Belgium will stop "sponsoring" those installing Solar panels (no more cash)

Fake move in Silver (SLV) ?

iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) chart analysis ;
1) Uptrend "too steep" ?
2) Are we facing a fake move/break out ?
3) Pay attention to the reversal level , $23.5
4) Last exit stands @ $22.5

Is the Dollar index a leading indicator for long term US Bonds ?

Weekly chart of the US 30 Year Treasury Bond versus the $USD Dollar index ;
Clear signs that the Dollar has acted as a leading indicator
Now what ? No more correlation or are we just expecting a bond crash ?
Wake up people, inflation is back .....

Docking Console for iPhone on your Harley (HOG)

Hell's Foundry's revolutionary new DashLink integrates a complete docking station for iPhone and iPod touch (AAPL) into a sweet replacement fuel tank console for your Harley (HOG).
By the way, Harley (HOG) 's chart looks reall good :)

Do not chase this chart

Rare Element Resources Ltd. (REE) chart analysis ;
1) The long price channel, once clearly broken on huge volume did send REE zooming up.
2) Most stocks do NOT do that, unless of course, your sector is "in the news" (rare earth).
3) Rare earth has been "hyped" this recent week (China, and a new ETF based on rare earth).
4) Now what ? See those long "spikes" ? It tells you to stay out .....
5) Wait for a CLEAR pull back, let the hype die down, and slowly build positions
Rare Element Resources Ltd. engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of mineral properties primarily in Canada and the United States. The company primarily focuses on gold and rare-earth-elements.

Forex should be on your mind this week

The following pairs are waiting to break out (bullish)
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
AUD/USD
NZD/USD
(similar patterns, all facing a clear resistance level)
----------------------
Break down confirmed ..... again .... USD/JPY (Where is the BOJ ???)
Bottom line, the $USD Dollar index should be on your "watch list".