High probability patterns

The following stocks face a high probability pattern (Price will continue in the current direction of the trade)
Anadarko Petroleum ( APC ) ; Gap up on high volume (clean break out)
CPFL Energia ( CPL ) ; Long base, ABC pattern break out, Gap, volume
Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. Ads ( PBR ) ; Long base break out
GAP Inc ( GPS ) ; ABC pattern confirmed
Market Vectors Rare Earth/Str Metals ETF ( REMX ) ; Pattern, news, volume, all confirm that the trend is intact

Silver ETF ready for a break out ?

iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) chart analysis ;
1) Focus on the recent "reversal" its our main warning signal
2) No volume break out .... no price break out ??
3) Uptrend too steep ?
4) Expecting a sideway pattern

A weekly look at the SP 500

SP 500 weekly chart analysis ;
1) Key resistance is now our key support level
2) ST and LT technical indicators are all bullish
3) January effect ?

What copper and crude oil says about Shanghai

Picture taken in front of my house (Belgium)

Ok, back to our chart analysis ; Crude Oil & Copper versus Shanghai SSE Index.

1) Clear uptrend and break out in both copper and crude oil

2) 2011, be fully invested in China, long trigger is right above 3000 (SSE Index)

Euro Dollar chart analysis

Euro Dollar chart updated ;
1) Pay attention to the chart pattern higher lows, followed by a break out above the "key resistance level". Learn how to spot "fake moves".
2) LT pattern (higher lows) is "still bullish", but a break below 1.2975 could trigger a huge bearish signal. (Note that some see a huge head and shoulder pattern).
3) If a higher lows pattern starts to form, wait for a clear break above 1.3200 to build positions.
4) The $USD Dollar index has a clear bullish trigger right above 81.5 ; If that level is broken next week, short the Euro

Olive trees from Morocco

Olive trees from Morocco ; We can export worldwide.
Need a favour from you (my readers), what do you pay for an olive tree ?
(I know the price in the Benelux & France region), but would love to know what you pay for in Asia, and North America, Thanks :)

Gold warning level

SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD) chart analysis using a simple 50 MA ;
1) Clear multiple warnings (50 days MA being tested as a key support level)
2) Candle reversals give us a clear resistance level
3) Watch GLD next week, if price dips below its 50 days MA, consider that a key warning signal. Do not short yet, GLD could face a channel pattern
DB Gold Double Short ETN (DZZ) ; The inverse (for GLD) faces the same problem with its 50 days simple MA ; wait for a clear break above it to start building positions.
LT signals are still bullish for Gold

Back in Brussels

Just arrived, after waiting in Casablanca over 14 hours .... Zaventem airport (Brussels) was full of luggages ..... they tell us we have to wait at least 3 days to get them ...... snow every where .... the good news ? The markets did pretty well :)

Casablanca, Morocco

Greetings from Casablanca, Happy Holidays, glad to see that the markets are still bullish :)

Heading back to Morocco

Going back to Morocco for 2 weeks. Taking care of our "farm".
Can't wait to taste our "olive oil" :)
Taking a break from blogging, hope nothing goes wrong in the market :)

SP 500 probable scenario

SP 500 chart analysis
1) Using your basic 50 & 200 SMA
2) Focus on break outs number "1" and "2" (on the chart)
3) VIX is "oversold"
4) Expecting a slight pull back / Tight channel
5) Buy on the dip should be on your mind if the light blue arrow scenario takes place

Copper is our new leading indicator ?

Copper versus Shanghai SSE index ;
Clear break out in copper prices, expecting Shanghai to zoom up quite fast.

SP 500 new trend line

SP 500's new trend line (weekly chart) ;
Rule is simple ; Connect the low to the "low" prior to the highest high (you noticed that the SP 500 is now higher than April's high)
Warning level is quite clear
Current pattern suggests we should zoom higher ..... BUT ! We still need some bullish fundamental events ...... Watch out for any key events next week

Trading plan 101

Las Vegas Sands Corp. (LVS) trading plan ;
1) Notice that recent Gap ?
2) Was that a parabolic rise ?
3) Are we facing an inverted ABC pattern where the trigger "C" is right below $44 ?
When getting ready to trade, draw up probable scenarios, allowing your brain to visualize your next move.
4) Wait for price action to confirm one of your scenarios

Euro Dollar chart analysis

Euro Dollar chart analysis ;
Current pattern = "Buy" levels, followed by support levels
Next move ? Pattern suggests a bullish break out, but ! As usual, expect the unexpected.
Focus on the buy/short triggers, avoid trying to anticipate the "next move"
Do not "guess", let the chart tell you "what to do"

Shanghai SSE Composite Index

Shanghai SSE Composite Index chart updated ;
Current close stands @ 2810 (right above its 200 days MA)
Green arrow = Expected scenario
Typical ABC pattern ; Expecting a channel pattern (tight) before zooming up to "A"

Focusing on financials

Citigroup Inc. (C) chart analysis ;
If you have been reading this blog for a while, you've noticed my focus and trading on various financials.
Short term time frames = Probable fake moves
Long term time frame = Reliable break out
The logic is simple, the company did find a bottom (confirmed by higher lows), but earnings and fundamentals need to improve. They do not improve in a month or two, it often takes over 4 to 6 months.
Very bullish as well on the following ;
Bank of America Corporation (BAC)
Direxion Daily Finan. Bull 3X Shs ETF (FAS)
Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF)

PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish (UUP)

PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish (UUP) chart analysis ;
1) Key resistance = 200 days MA
2) ABC pattern ? With "C" level as our main bullish trigger ? (Above $23.5)
3) Bear trend confirmed if UUP dips below $22.75

Gold chart update

SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD) chart analysis ;
1) Key resistance/channel levels are quite clear
2) Focus on the trigger level ($130), a break below could cause some damage.
3) Main trend is still bullish, was clearly overbought
4) Focus on the $USD Index for Gold's next move

Long term bonds update

30 Year US Treasury Bond chart analysis ;
1) Using simple MA's , 50 & 200.
2) Note how both these two MA's have been reliable trend indicator, as well as resistance/support levels.
3) We are now "below key support level"
Gut feeling ; Been expecting a bond crash, but as usual, my twisted mind always tells me to "expect the unexpected" ; The market always tends to fool us .....
We need some key news event next week to "trigger" a bond crash.
What other scenario is possible ? A sideway pattern just above the 200 days MA (bulls and bears could fight it out for at least 7 to 10 days)

Buy Alcoa and go away

Alcoa Inc. (AA) weekly chart analysis ;
1) Typical ABC pattern
2) Higher lows confirmed
3) Long base patterns = Huge break out to come

Copper sending us a clear message

Copper weekly chart ;
You do not often see such a clear message (chart pattern), on a weekly chart !
Get ready for a bull market in 2011.
If you prefer individual stocks (not ETFs), focus on US blue chips (make sure they are well positioned in emerging countries)
ie : Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), funny how its chart is identical to Copper :)

Stocks to watch next week

The following stocks got my attention ;
1) Nokia Corp Ads ( NOK ) : Typical ABC pattern, we now need to get above its 50 days exp MA to zoom up again.
2) Alcatel Lucent (ALU) : Support level confirmed, main pattern is still a higher lows (from May), 2.8 is your stop.
3) National Semiconductor Corp ( NSM ): Break out with a GVN condition (Gap, Volume, News)
4) Stmicroelectronics N.V. ( STM ) : Same pattern as National Semi.
5) Dryships Inc ( DRYS ) : As mentioned earlier, bull market intact in shipping.
6) PMC-SIERRA Inc ( PMCS ) : Great looking break out (long base break out).
7) Bank Of America Corp ( BAC ) : Once again, its 50 days exp MA will be a huge resistance, but once we get above it, expect a huge run up.
8) Citigroup Inc ( C ) : Once again, buy Citi and go away
9) Wells Fargo ( WFC ) : Typical ABC pattern, with "A" standing at its Nov high.
Techs are sending us a clear message : "We are back, and will lead"
Financials are sending us a clear message : "We are reversing upward"

Charts 101

PowerShares DB Agriculture (DBA) weekly chart ;
A quick study on a typical pattern after an important fall. (Charts 101).
Comparing a short base with a longer base pattern ; Short base pattern tend to produce "fake moves", longer base pattern tend to produce huge run ups.
It does not matter if you are a short or long term trader ; Start looking at a weekly chart first.
Index is composed of futures contracts on coffee, cocoa, live cattle, corn, wheat, soy beans and sugar.

Investing in cows

We will import cows from Holland (to Meknes, Morocco)
Holstein cattle (Holland) (also known as Holstein-Friesian cattle or Friesian cattle) is a breed of cattle known today as the world's highest production dairy animal.
The picture above is of a typical cow you see in Morocco (you do not see too many for such a huge farming area), (Meknes is two times the size of Belgium !
A healthy calf weighs 40 to 45 kg or more at birth. A mature Holstein cow typically weighs 580 kg, and stands 147 cm (58 inches) tall at the shoulder.
Bottom line ? Net profit after feeding them for 3 to 4 months is quite good :)
Start raising some animals, the world's population will keep on growing :)

Euro Dollar chart analysis

Euro Dollar chart analysis ;
1) Key support level is clear
2) Trigger level (buy level) is clear
3) Based on current pattern, current events, I see the blue arrow as the most probable scenario.
4) Tight channel pattern means stay out, wait for a clear break out, and expect fake moves

ETF fund flows

Highlights from the November 2010 ETF fund flows include:
ETF assets rose to about $947 billion in November, a 3.6 percent rise from October and up 12.2 percent in 2010.
U.S. equities were the most popular asset category, with $6.3 billion in inflows.
International equities, largely emerging markets, garnered about $3.6 billion in inflows.
U.S. fixed income: outflows of almost $700 million.
Vanguard hauled in $6.8 billion in assets, over five times more than its closest competitor.
The Vanguard MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (NYSEArca: VWO) was the single most popular fund last month, gathering $1.73 billion.
Investors poured $471.1 million into the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSEArca: XLE), making it the single most popular fund on Wednesday.
Source : Indexuniverse.com

Bond crash confirmed ?

iShares Barclays 20+ Yr Treas.Bond ETF (TLT) chart analysis
1) Simple chart using the 50 and 200 days SMA
2) Fake move confirmed (see chart)
3) Back down re testing its long term moving average
4) Trigger level = expect crash below

Apple Inc. (AAPL) trading plan

Apple Inc. (AAPL) trading plan ;
1) Notice those fake moves ? We need a "clean break out" on huge volume and great news !
2) Tigh channel (short term) tend to create weaker break out, will that be the case again ?
3) Plan is clear, wait for a clean break out.
4) Note that Apple is acting weaker than the Nasdaq ......

SP 500 Index buy signal activated

Long term buy signal on the SP 500 was "intact"
Short term buy signal is re activated (see stop loss level)
Top growth : Tech
Top value : Financials

Market opinion

We often hear about the growth of emerging markets, but in fact unless you really see it for yourself, you do not quite understand its importance.

As an ex private banker I understood one thing ; There are more rich people in Morocco than in Belgium ! (Not talking about the poor here, but the number of wealthy individuals).

Why focus on agricultural commodities ? Its the next boom to come ..... (food).

Ok, back to the markets ;

$USD Dollar index's long term signals are still bearish. Raise your stop on the Dollar to 80, expect a huge resistance at the 81 to 82 levels.

Euro Dollar ; Way oversold. Re entry stands at 1.3160

Global Markets ; Normal pull back, expecting a huge run up.

Notice that the Dollar, Oil and Gold are ALL trading higher ? One of them has to snap !!!!

Who ??? The $USD Dollar

Back from Morocco

Back from Meknes, Morocco.

What you see above (from the first picture), an olive trees field (we bought several), then you see how they press it. We can fill easily several 1000 liters plastic containers.

We can also export small olive trees (worldwide).

We purchased other lands, growing raisins, almonds, and various fruits and vegetables.

Great investment, returns are quite amazing and NON TAXABLE !!!!!