Dow Jones Transportation Average

Dow Jones Transportation Average chart analysis ;
1) Crude oil caused that fake move (fake break out)
2) Focus on that last key support ; A clear danger zone
3) Today's candle is NOT convincing

10 Year US Treasury Note Yield

10 Year US Treasury Note Yield chart analysis ;
1) Key price channel is clear (main resistance right now)
2) Long trigger is clear
3) Short trigger is clear
Gut feeling : Bond market is way oversold

iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV)

iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) chart analysis ;
I call this an "easy trade" ; Why ? Most of us focus on the reward, you should focus on the risk (Meaning ? The exit)
The exit is quite clear ; We have a clear warning sign, and a final exit.

EURCHF, Euro versus Swiss Franc

Forex : EURCHF, Euro versus Swiss Franc, weekly chart analysis ;
1) Rare long term pattern, a parabolic fall (You just see them in companies ready to go bankrupt).
2) Focus on that light green arrow scenario ; Print it, and stick it on your wall
3) First key entry level is right above 1.3200

Nasdaq long term chart analysis

Nasdaq weekly chart analysis ;
1) Quick fact : We are above that key neckline, expecting a "re test" of that level
2) Clear inverted head and shoulder pattern
3) All signs that tech is back, ready for a huge bull market ......
4) Major bearish reversal stands right below that neckline

Case study using Ford Motor Company (F)

Ford Motor Company (F) chart analysis ;
Are recent support/resistance levels more reliable than older ones ? (Over 6 months). Yes !
Why ? People/Traders have "short memories" ......
Pay attention to several key factors on this chart ;
1) Very clear key support level
2) First re entry levels are based on this very recent gap level
3) Main full buy trigger is based on that key resistance
4) Gut feeling versus Price action : Its OK to have gut feelings (based on your own interpretation of news, experience, capacity to listen to others, trading techniques etc ....) . Price action always wins out no matter what
5) Gut feeling says we zoom up, but be ready to change your mind fast and always expect the unexpected.
6) Every secret services in the world could not predict the current situation in the Middle East, armed with the best techs, analyst, experienced diplomats ..... etc .....
7) Conclusion ; You see smoke ? Go on the sideline, call the firetruck, and wait for "confirmation"

Market opinion

SP 500 chart update ;
1) Key support level did hold
2) We now have a "exit level" (see chart)
3) Gut feeling ? Not expecting a real bullish reversal, just a sideway pattern that could be really volatile.
Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE); Probably the most overbought ETF, raise stop to 76$.
iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXX) ; We now have another clear major buy trigger right above $35.
PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish (UUP); Still fighting to remain above its key support (support level since Oct).

ProShares UltraShort QQQ ETF (QID)

Fight of the week ;

PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 ETF (QQQQ) versus the ProShares UltraShort QQQ ETF (QID).

The chart above is the regular long QQQQ ; Last two candles are fighting hard to remain above its 50 days exp MA.

When you look at the chart of QID ; Price is fighting hard to get above its 50 days exp MA.

Buy trigger for QID stands right above $53 (warning, on friday, proshares changed its price).

Gut feeling ? Market is probably oversold

Gut feeling (2) ; Bad news out of Libya is far from over .....

The Boeing Company (BA)

The Boeing Company (BA) chart analysis ;
1) Watch a typical GVN condition today ; Gap, Volume and NEWS !
2) Key news : Boeing Wins $35 Billion Air Force Tanker
3) No need to be a chart reader in this condition ; Just focus on that new stop loss, quite easy to set up this trading plan.

Tata Motors Limited ADR (TTM)

Tata Motors Limited ADR (TTM) weekly chart analysis ;
1) Clear weekly parabolic rise, always followed by a hard fall
2) Focus on that key price target
3) Yellow arrow = Highly probable scenario
4) Red arrow = Low probability scenario
Tata Motors Limited, an automobile company, engages in the manufacture and sale of commercial and passenger vehicles primarily in India. The company offers cars, utility vehicles, trucks, buses, and defense vehicles, as well as develops electric and hybrid vehicles for personal and public transportation. It also involves in distributing and marketing cars; and financing the vehicles sold by the company. In addition, the company engages in the provision of engineering and automotive solutions, as well as machine tools and factory automation solutions; construction equipment manufacturing; automotive vehicle components manufacturing and supply chain activities; tooling and plastic and electronic components for automotive and computer applications; and automotive retailing and service operations. It offers its products and services through its dealership, sales, services, and spare parts network. The company also markets its commercial and passenger vehicles in Europe, Africa, the Middle East, South East Asia, South Asia, and South America. The company was formerly known as Tata Engineering and Locomotive Company Limited and changed its name to Tata Motors Limited in July 2003. Tata Motors Limited was founded in 1945 and is based in Mumbai, India.

SP 500 chart analysis

SP 500 chart analysis ;
1) Key support channel is clear (1280-1300)
2) Re entry is clear (doubt we get above it today)
3) Warning level = Yesterday's low
4) Out level = Right below 1280 (50 days exp MA)
Gut feeling ; Mentioned the "Hammer" yesterday, well, that is not a real hammer yet.
Stay on the sideline, observe, be patient

The Hammer, candle chart

We need this kind of candle (The Hammer)
Source : Stockcharts.com

Citigroup Inc. (C) trading plan updated

Citigroup Inc. (C) trading plan ;
1) Right on a key support level
2) Volume so far does not reveal a major "fear" ...... Yet ......
3) Focus on those multiple entry levels (hope to buy at these levels)
PS : Hope to see a spike down, followed by a candle reversal

Live picture of areas liberated in Libya

Source : http://twitpic.com/42yf66

Apple Inc. (AAPL) chart updated

Apple Inc. (AAPL) chart updated (see recent posts on Apple a few days ago).
1) Am I crazy to hope for such a price fall ? Maybe ...
2) Focus on that key support level
3) Trading plan : Multiple entry levels on price spiking down
4) Buyer now ? No, not yet ....
5) Patience, Apple will go on "SALE" soon :)

Comments from Fidel Castro, the other clown

Fidel Castro says US to invade Libya ....
I call this the Dictator's Domino Theory .... who is next ?
Cuba, Venezuela, Zimbabwe, Iran, Yemen .... did I forget anyone ???
Just a little fear ; If a similar event takes place in China, GET OUT of the stock market !

iPath SP 500 VIX Short Term Futures ETN (VXX)

iPath SP 500 VIX Short Term Futures ETN (VXX) chart updated, see previous chart posted earlier.
1) Initial target could be "taken out"
2) Could face a spike up (see level on the chart)
3) Focus on that current stop loss
Gut feeling ; Focus on all news events out of Libya

Brent crude oil

Brent crude oil "weekly" chart analysis ;
1) One quick fact ; A parabolic rise if often followed by a parabolic plunge !
2) Key question ; How long is that rise ? Well, it depends of the fear factor
3) A close below 100 will signal "less fear" ; Situation calms down in Libya
4) Assume the situation does not calm down in Libya, even if Saudi Arabia helps out, the fear factor (fear of the unknown) will still be there.
5) Markets hate the "unknown factor" ......
6) If Gaddafi is killed, the message to other nations under a dictator will be this ; We (the people) can bring you down ..... a political vacuum will take place, bringing more fear.
Gut feeling ? I am NOT shorting the market ; Why ? Fundamentals are much better.
Focus on buy on the dip ; Hope to see a major spike down and an eventual candle reversal

Crude oil, Gaddafi, Venezuela

Price of light crude oil jumped up today. Latest rumor ? Gaddafi of Libya escaped to Venezuela.
Gaddafi's son went on TV last night saying he will fight "to the end" ..... Yeah, right
Gut feeling ? Situation in Libya could get worst, sending crude oil much higher, bringing more fears to the markets.
Probably time to book your profits and wait for things to "calm down".
We are talking about an important oil player here .....

Cheniere Energy, Inc. (LNG)

Cheniere Energy, Inc. (LNG) weekly chart analysis ;
A big thank to Tictac (a reader of this blog) for spotting LNG !
Long base patterns = Huge break out !
Price/Volume action confirm break out
Waiting a few days before buying, markets are way overbought right now

Attention all financial bloggers, Blogger, and Google

The owner of this web site http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com , blogging since April 2010, decided that he owns the words "Probable scenarios" (Words I have been using for years on this blog).
He hides behind his email ; crinia@gmail.com (No name, impossible to see who the person is).
But !!! if you run his email on Google, you'll see how he has been posting hundreds of comments (with no value whatsoever) .... trying to get attention to his "black box trading system".
He then contacted Blogger and Google, asking for help to stop me from using those words !!!
I wonder if any of you have dealt with him before, if so, let me know.
I should not have given him so much attention, and then again, that's probably what he is looking for, attention ....... I tracked his postings, no use at all ...

Ford Motor Company (F)

Ford Motor Company (F) chart analysis ;
1) GVN condition (Gap, huge Volume, and high impact News)
2) Price did find a key support level
3) Focus on that re entry level
4) Gut feeling ; we need another bullish news event from Ford in order to climb higher. I doubt we see a pull back below $15
PS : Focus on that re entry level, do NOT buy unless we get above it

How to use a basic VIX indicator trading system

I use to publish it a while ago, and I know that some of you use it :)
The VIX indicator trading system (in this case using the settings 5 & 50 Exp MA) is pretty reliable in spotting buy/sell signals for the SP 500.
Note that you can still use the 5 & 20 exp MA (if you prefer to day trade).
Chart on top is in invisible mode (you can do that on stockcharts.com), why ? well the VIX is so volatile that I decided to remove the "noise"
When a crossover/crossbelow takes place, note the bull/bear signals on the SP 500.
Now, here is a little trick ; when the spread between those two moving averages is too big, expect a pull back in the SP 500.
As usual, if you have any questions, feel free to ask :)

Direxion Daily Finan. Bull 3X Shs ETF (FAS)

Direxion Daily Finan. Bull 3X Shs ETF (FAS) weekly chart analysis ;
1) Been bullish on financials for a while now
2) Now let's pay attention to that LONG ABC pattern ; What do I mean by long ? The longer it takes for "C" to get above "A", the BIGGER the break out.
3) Gut feeling ; Expecting a sideway pattern for at least 2 weeks (or more)
4) Notice that the volume is drying up .....
5) Long term VERY bullish

India Bombay Stock Exchange 30 Sensex

India Bombay Stock Exchange 30 Sensex chart analysis ;
1) Current pattern suggests we are heading towards the read arrow scenario
2) If you look at a weekly chart, price is currently testing its 50 weeks SMA.

Is the 30 Year US Treasury Bond oversold ?

30 Year US Treasury Bond chart analysis ;
1) Focus on that key level next week (see chart)
2) Buy trigger level is clear
3) Short term support seems to confirm oversold condition, retracement taking place ?
4) Warning ; MT and LT indicators are still bearish

iPath SP 500 VIX Short Term Futures ETN (VXX)

iPath SP 500 VIX Short Term Futures ETN (VXX) trading plan ;
1) When I tend to post the same item, it means I have a "high conviction" (gut feelings).
2) You need a visual trading plan, a news event, key triggers, and a stop loss level.
3) When you have all those clear in your mind, you are 100% ready
4) Focus on that light green scenario I have in mind

Dow Jones Industrial Average probable scenario

Dow Jones Industrial Average probable scenario ;
Based on current chart patterns/indicators, I see the light green arrow as the "most probable scenario in the next few weeks."

Various charts on my screens

1) iPath DJ-UBS Cotton TR Sub-Idx ETN ( BAL ) ; down 11%, typical reaction in a parabolic rise, trend is still very bullish , so expect buyers to push it up again next week.
2) Natl Bank Of Greece Sa Ads ( NBG ) ; mentioned it a few weeks ago, bullish reversal, add to that a typical GVN condition (Gap, huge Volume, and high impact News).
3) Intuit Inc ( INTU ) ; clean perfect break out, now wait a few days for a reliable support level, adding this one to my watch list. (Current leading stocks have this typical pattern).
4) Wal-Mart Stores ( WMT ) ; Yes !!! look back at the recent chart I posted, with perfect multiple entry levels :)
5) Boston Scientific ( BSX ) ; an old giant is waking up again ? Typical ABC pattern, with "A" right at $7.9. Key buy trigger stands right above it.
6) Energy Sel Sect Spider Fd ( XLE ) ; great looking uptrend, but it needs a rest, needs a channel pattern.

PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund (DBA)

PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund (DBA) chart analysis ;
1) First, a quick note from a friend in Portugal ; " I can now say that I am at least self-sufficient in fruit, as I have oranges, figs, cherries, peaches, apples, pears, plums and much more"
2) Now that's what I call a smart investment ! And you should do the same, buy some farm land, get a pro/coach to teach you how to plant basic food product, and collect the yield every year (also watch the increase in land value).
3) No wonder I put up a cartoon a few months ago saying that farmers are the next billionaires !
4) Ok, back to that chart of DBA (been long on it for a while), expecting a spike up, then a pull back (see that past scenario on the chart).

Apple Inc. (AAPL) will lead techs in a pull back ?

Apple Inc. (AAPL) chart analysis ;
1) See the recent post on VXX (QQQQ and the SP 500 are highly overbought)
2) Is Apple our current leading indicator ? Down over 1.40% right now
3) Most techs stocks are facing a small parabolic rise, time to enter a channel pattern.
4) All indicators are still very BULLISH !
5) Allow a pull back, then consider a buy on the dip approach

iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV)

iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) chart analysis ;
1) Triple top break out
2) Focus on that stop loss level
3) Main worry ? No volume on that break out !

Iran, Israel, and light crude oil

Key news to follow over the next few days ; Israel says Iran warships to transit Suez for Syria.
1) So far light crude oil is not bursting up
2) Iran testing the new Egyptian military ?
3) Will Egypt allow those boats to cross the Suez canal ?
4) Add Gold and the Dollar index to your watch list

iPath SP 500 VIX Short Term Futures ETN (VXX)

iPath SP 500 VIX Short Term Futures ETN (VXX) chart analysis ;
1) Clear down trend (using the 20 days SMA as our trend "filter")
2) Focus on that "warning" level
3) Gut feeling ? Way way oversold (Expecting a pull in the SP 500)
4) Time frame analysis should be on your mind ; this down trend is almost 6 months old !
5) Bearish on the SP 500 ? Nope, just a reminder that it needs to go "up the stairs", meaning expect a channel pattern.

Various technicals

1) Abercrombie & Fitch Co Cl A ( ANF ) ; bullish reversal, probable ABC pattern.
2) iPath DJ-UBS Cotton TR Sub-Idx ETN ( BAL ) ; warning, we are facing a parabolic rise.
3) Research In Motion ( RIMM ) ; ABC buy trigger activated.
4) Officemax Inc ( OMX ) ; bearish ABC trigger activated (short activated, stop @ $ 16.85).
5) Ford Motor Co ( F ) ; facing an important resistance at its 50 days exp MA.
6) Qwest Communications Intl Inc ( Q ) ; bearish reversal, short trigger stands at $6.80

Borders Group, Inc. (BGP), what the charts told you

Borders Group, Inc. (BGP) weekly chart ;
1) One clear big picture, comparing the SP 500 with Borders
2) Price/volume action also confirmed

The Coca-Cola Company (KO), inverted ABC pattern ?

The Coca-Cola Company (KO) chart analysis ;
1) FYI, current buzz is that Coca-Cola's Secret Formula has been 'Discovered'
2) Clear broken uptrend
3) Is this an inverted ABC pattern ?
4) "C" level, our short trigger stands right below $62
5) Ignore pattern if price manages to get back above $64

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) chart analysis ;
1) As mentioned a few days ago, Nvidia was in a parabolic rise, price needed to enter a channel pattern.
2) Will current support hold ? $21.5 to $22 ?
3) Pattern still very bullish (warning, most tech stocks are overbought)

DryShips Inc. (DRYS) trading plan

DryShips Inc. (DRYS) trading plan ;
1) Pay attention to that key support level, it confirmed the "break out level" (see chart).
2) Higher lows confirmed
3) Facing a key resistance level, we need to get above that "trigger"
4) Full re entry level is clear

Dell Inc. (DELL) trading plan

Dell Inc. (DELL) trading plan ;
1) Good news from Dell yesterday, expect a GVN condition (Gap, Volume, News)
2) Wait a few days before you enter, allow first a tight price channel
3) See that recent fake move ? (Resistance level), wait for a clear confirmation that it does really become a reliable support

Do you have a photographic memory when it comes to charts ?

Stephen Wiltshire is an architectural artist with autism and he’s known to have true photographic memory. He can draw very complex and detailed pictures of pretty much anything he sees, after seeing it just once.

Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) probable scenario

Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) chart updated ;
1) Lenght of uptrend ; Most traders do not consider it, but "time frame" analysis should often be on your mind. XOM needs to enter a channel pattern.
2) Wait for a reliable support level, see light green arrow as a probable scenario.
3) Bullish on energy stocks, but we are WAY overbought

Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (WMT)

Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (WMT) chart analysis ;
1) Chart analysis ? Nope, WMT is mostly a "value" play, where one has to be real patient to buy it on a dip.
2) Focus mainly on those "multiple entry levels" (based on recent price action, Nov to Jan).

QUALCOMM, Inc. (QCOM)

QUALCOMM, Inc. (QCOM) chart update ;
1) Multiple GVN condition (Gap, Volume and high impact bullish News)
2) Slight parabolic rise, wait for a channel pattern
3) Blue chip tech stock you "should own", just wait for a pull back

PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund (DBA), leading the revolution in the middle east

PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund (DBA) chart update.
Quick reminder of what is DBA ; The investment seeks to track the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodity Index - Optimum Yield Agriculture Excess Return. The index is a rules-based index composed of futures contracts on some of the most liquid and widely traded agricultural commodities ; corn, wheat, soy beans and sugar. The index is intended to reflect the performance of the agricultural sector.
Been bullish on DBA for a while now (that is why I invested in farm lands in Morocco, focusing on olive oil)
That weekly chart pattern is quite clear ; long term base pattern tend to break out into massive up trends.
I often wrote about price rising in the agricultural sector (see past posts) ; that event lead to the revolutions in Tunisia, Egypt .... and ??? Well, guess what, price will keep on rising, and those poor people (out of work now since there is no more tourism) are heading by boat to the nearest Italian island asking for "economic refugee status".
And its just starting ......

Euro Dollar chart analysis

Euro Dollar chart analysis ;
1) I often write (when it comes to currencies) "expect the unexpected", the full black swan theory applied here
2) Note the amount of clear fake moves, right after a bullish/bearish comment from the ECB.
3) Current price action a bearish reversal or another "fake move" ?
4) Euro Dollar is a clear "news event" trade (charts are used in this case to please the visual effects on your brain)
5) Another bad news coming from Trichet ?
6) But then again ..... it could be another "fake move" .....
7) Last support is quite clear, full re entry is right above the "last" buy trigger (see chart).

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) chart analysis ;
1) Past resistance is now our current "key" support
2) Recent bearish price/volume action and "fake moves" could be a sign of a top ? (too early to come to that conclusion)
3) Bullish re entry trigger stands above $28

Polo Ralph Lauren Corporation (RL), the perfect chart set up ?

Polo Ralph Lauren Corporation (RL) chart analysis ;
1) I'll keep this link right next to the ABC pattern and GVN condition
2) We have a clear ABC buy trigger, helped by a GVN condition ; Perfect set up.
3) This kind of set up is a perfect fundamental/news/chart pattern combined.
4) The combined patterns give us a clear entry and stop loss level

JDS Uniphase Corporation (JDSU) in a parabolic rise

JDS Uniphase Corporation (JDSU) chart analysis ;
1) Let's be clear first ; yes, its a bullish pattern, but way way overbought
2) GVN condition confirmed the bullish pattern
3) Price rised up too fast, into a parabolic rise .... expect a sudden fall
4) Light green arrow = probable scenario

Citigroup Inc. (C) long term picture

Citigroup Inc. (C) long term chart update ;
1) You know that I have been quite bullish on financials, now let me share a price target I have in mind for Dec 2011.
2) Note that we have a clear higher lows pattern (weekly chart)
3) Long term resistance is clear
4) Long term channels = Huge break out !!!
5) Expecting a huge break out, followed by a possible parabolic rise
6) Smart money will flow to financials ..... soon

US Dollar versus Israeli Shekel (FOREX:USDILS)

US Dollar versus Israeli Shekel (FOREX:USDILS) chart analysis ;
1) Events in North Africa, Yemen, and Jordan gave us our "A" level (ABC pattern)
2) Do we now have a "B" level ? Reliable support ?
3) Level "C" of course is our huge trigger (we are NOT there yet)
4) Pay attention to the light green and red arrow scenarios
5) Light green means that the situation in Egypt goes sour .....
6) Red arrow scenario means that the Egyptian army manages to calm the situation, and everything goes back to normal ...... Gut feeling ? I doubt it .....
***Note that the Euro Shekel faces the same pattern***

WABCO Holdings Inc. (WBC), using a simple trading system

WABCO Holdings Inc. (WBC) chart analysis using a simple system ;
1) Using two exp moving averages (5 and 50) basic crossover
2) Current support level was our 50 days exp (buy trigger was still bullish)
3) Quick reminder of one of my basic rules ; Keep it simple
4) You could also add another filter ; the 200 days exp MA (LT indicator)
5) Of course, nothing beats the current pattern (GVN condition), Gap, Volume, and News !
6) Why do traders use a system ? Visual comfort ..... it feels/looks good .....

Market Vector Russia ETF Trust (RSX)

Market Vector Russia ETF Trust (RSX) chart analysis ;
As mentioned earlier (Early Jan) , bullish on energy related stocks and Russia
"Up the stairs" pattern, just focus on that key support level
Yesterday's low is now our "exit trigger"

Wave skiing, amazing talent

Always impressed to see such talent (by Chuck Patterson)

Nokia Corporation ADR (NOK), stopped out

Nokia Corporation ADR (NOK) chart update ;
1) Clear fake break out
2) See that initial break out ? Got stopped out.
3) Stopped out means you sell, you ask questions later !
4) Re entry level ? Sure, if price breaks out above 11.25
5) Gut feeling ? We enter a channel pattern, then move higher

Get ready to buy Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)

Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) chart analysis ;
1) A few days ago, I mentioned that I was not "convinced" that Cisco was facing a bullish reversal ; why ? We needed an ABC pattern, confirmed by improved fundamentals.
2) We are once again facing a GVN condition (Gap, Volume, News) , to understand that pattern, take a look at the right hand side of this blog
3) Once of my key rules ; think like a value investor !!!!
4) Wait until all those funds reduce their positions in Cisco, then see how price reacts around its March 09 lows ..... I would start buying shares at those levels
5) Then ? Buy and go away

SP 500 chart analysis

SP 500 chart analysis ;
1) Print this chart, stick it on your wall
2) Price is now getting too far away from its 50 days exp MA
3) Light green arrow = spike up, then sudden reversal (medium probability)
4) Red arrow scenario = high probability
6) Both scenarios do confirm an uptrend, expect higher volatility, if you are a long term investor, just stay in and enjoy the wild ride, if you are a trader ; buy on the dip should be on your mind.
7) Oil and Tech stocks are way overbought, pull back will be harder from these two sectors.

Avon Products, Inc. (AVP)

Avon Products, Inc. (AVP) chart analysis ;
1) Typical GVN condition (Gap, Volume spike, and high impact News)
2) When you see two GVN conditions in a row (around 6 months period), the damage tends to be severe.