Dollar break down

Heading to visit a farm in Costa Rica :)
Invest in farms, grow something and sell it to China :)
No kidding :)
Then ? Open an account in China, keep the Chinese currency :)
Watch the Dollar ..... Gold is about to face another bullish break out .....

Hola from Costa Rica

Having a great time here. The trading seminar went really well, now busy visiting :)
Really beautiful place, very friendly people, and Great food ! The meat is amazing !
Regarding the markets, it does not "feel right"
Still facing lower highs in the SP 500 since mid Feb
Out of the markets, just "observing"

Heading to Costa Rica

Heading to Costa Rica to give a trading seminar, so blogging will be "light".
Will update when I can :)

Finding the right short candidate

Travelzoo Inc. (TZOO) chart analysis : Typical parabolic rise .... let it go higher, then wait for the expected pull back ....
Trailing PE : 65
Price/Book : 17
Price/Sale : 7
Good ROE and ROA
" An Internet media company, publishes travel and entertainment offers"
Why do I call TZOO a short candidate ?
1) Parabolic rise ...... You know how they end .......
2) Another BS "content is king" ..... (reminds me of all that internet bubble)
3) Its products provide advertising opportunities for airlines, hotels, cruise lines ... etc ... Until Facebook decides to do the samething
Trading plan :
A) Patience ! Let more fools push this stock higher :)
B) Catalyst : High crude prices = Bad news for airlines = bad news for travel .....

Is SUPERVALU INC. (SVU) back ?

SUPERVALU INC. (SVU) chart analysis ;
Just me taking quick notes on SVU ; I'll post (print) this chart in front of me.
Make sure you have a visual picture of what you are expecting
Keep your plan simple ; Send simple messages to your brain
1) Where do you get in ?
2) Why ? Need increased volume on break out and NEWS

Do not short Sprint Nextel Corporation (S)

Sprint Nextel Corporation (S) weekly chart analysis ;
1) The big picture ; Still stuck in a tight price channel
2) We did get a typical GVN condition yesterday ; Gap, Volume ... but the News could be subject to interpretations ....
3) Allow at least 10 days to see how Sprint acts around its "reliable support ?" .....
4) Do not short .......

Bonds, 10 Year US Treasury Note Yield

10 Year US Treasury Note Yield chart analysis ;
1) Clear fake move (confirms a key LT resistance level)
2) Mid term indicator = Sell
3) LT indicators are still in a buy mode
4) LT chart pattern = Bullish (was way overbought)
5) Focus on that resistance level (right at its 50 days exp MA)
6) Gut feeling ; Expecting that medium to high probability scenario
PS : Inflation is back, Bonds are dead

Time to buy Google Inc. (GOOG) ?

Google Inc. (GOOG) chart analysis ;
1) Key support level did confirm the initial GVN condition (Gap, huge Volume, and key News), true, but that GVN condition was the "past" .....
2) Yesterday's price rise had NO volume break out .....
3) Did you buy ? Ok, if you did, then focus on that stop loss level
4) See that "short trigger level" ?" If we get below that level, use the same "stop loss level"
5) The Google big picture ; Is that a long triple top ??? Or a wide channel pattern ??
We shall soon find out

US Dollar index

$USD Dollar index chart (You can use the same settings I use on Futuresource.com )

1) Right on key support level

2) Bullish reversal stands right above 76.156 (5 days exp MA)

3) Euro Dollar (see settings here), is facing a major break out. (Bearish reversal stands right below 1.4100

Howard Lederer On Poker and Trading the Markets

SP 500 warning level

SP 500 chart analysis ;
1) 50 days simple MA = Main resistance level
2) Short trigger is now "clear"
3) Bad news are "over" ??? Yeah, right ....
4) iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXX) : Key support stands @ 32.5 $

What's wrong with Apple Inc. (AAPL) ?

Apple Inc. (AAPL) chart analysis ;
1) Lower highs pattern
2) Sell signal (5 days exp MA below its 50 days exp MA)
3) Increased volume
4) Right on key support level
Trading plan : NOT shorting !!!
Apple was probably way overbought and needed a pull back
Re entry stands right above $340
Gut feeling ? Ipad 2 is out , price not rising .... was uptrend priced in ?

Forex trade of the year, EURCHF

Forex : EURCHF (Euro vs Swiss Franc) weekly chart analysis
1) Clear parabolic fall, way way oversold
2) Expecting a VIOLENT move leading to a channel pattern (base pattern)
3) Main break out will occur above 1.3200
4) The Swiss cannot export anymore, being a "safe heaven" is fine, but at what cost ?
5) Seen any tourist going to ski there ?
I call this the "forex trade of the year"

CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY)

CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY) weekly chart analysis ;
1) Fake move is quite clear (candle reversal)
2) Price/Volume action confirms bearish reversal
3) Focus on that "short trigger"

Shorting NIKE, Inc. (NKE) ?

NIKE, Inc. (NKE) weekly chart analysis ;
1) Always look at the big picture before jumping to conclusions (Daily chart shows a GVN condition ; meaning ? Some traders may be tempted to short Nike)
2) Key news are not bad enough ........
3) Right on key support level
Conclusion : Do NOT short

The Dunkan Diet

After posting my pictures from Hong Kong, many of you (that have known me for years) have asked me how I lost the weight ?
13 Kgs lost in 3 months (and have not gained them back)
Yes, I did read Dr Pierre Dunkan's book and applied it ....... it works :)
Only one problem, had a hard time "not having vegies" and bread (so I cheated).
So basically you remove pasta, rice, potatoes, peanut (family), beans, fruits, sugar products .....
Avoid soft drinks .... even the light ones !
Focus on protein, green vegies, and lots of water (for at least 7 days) ; I hate my daily bread only in the mornings (brown bread).
After 7 days, I included fruits (no bananas)
Eat pasta (or rice) two times a week (no cream sauce) and do not mix them with meat.
Work out daily (at least 20 minutes) ; in front of Bloomberg of course :)
Pig out on Sundays only (huge bowl of ice cream)
Voilà, as in trading, when you have a clear plan, everything works well :)

Focus on crude oil, Libya, France, NATO forces

France was the first country to recognize "The Libyan Rebels".
Rumors in various African press of France bombing Libyan troops "soon" .....
Watch crude oil prices zoom up into a full parabolic rise

SP 500 chart update

SP 500 chart update ;
1) Sell signal = 5 days exp MA below 50 days exp MA
2) Sell trigger also confirms break of 1300 level as support
3) Stuck in a clear price channel
4) Focus on that 1220 level (Confirms 200 days exp MA level)
5) Trading Plan : Stay out ! Do not guess the next move ! Go work out ! Observe.
Gut feelings ; Ok people, let's brain storm here. Key words such as nuclear reactors, higher inflation (huge) in India, unrest in the Arab world not ending, higher crude prices, insurance claims in Japan, etc ..... What else could go wrong ? War with Libya ? Iran's reaction to Saudi intervention in Bahrain ?
My point is simple : The global economy was improving, but the big picture has changed !

Shorting RadioShack Corporation (RSH)

RadioShack Corporation (RSH) chart analysis ;
1) Multiple GVN conditions (Gap, Volume, and bad News)
2) Stock much weaker than the rest of the market
3) Short trigger is clear
4) Focus on that stop loss if "short is activated"
5) Target ? 20% down or more .....
6) Put option target ; July 16, strike @14

SP 500 chart updated

SP 500 chart updated ;
1) Last candle shows a possible bullish reversal (from oversold condition)
2) Short trigger is clear
3) Re entry level is also clear, I doubt we visit this level in the next few days.
Gut feeling ; We enter a tight price range followed by an important break out.
Direction of the break out ?
A) Japan's news is improving ; I doubt it
B) End of events in Arab countries ? I doubt it
C) Probable scenario ; A test of its 200 days exp MA ?

Global X Uranium ETF (URA)

Global X Uranium ETF (URA) chart analysis ;
1) Clear GVN condition ; Gap, Volume and key NEWS (scared of Uranium related stocks).
2) Oversold, see expected scenario
3) Focus on those 2 "short trigger" levels

iPath SP 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXX)

iPath SP 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXX) chart updated ;
1) Glad to see the VXX (my only holding) doing quite well (Japan situation was NOT expected, but the volume pattern on that ABC move was quite "early" to spot a bearish reversal for the SP 500)
2) We basically have a full ABC buy trigger
3) Great way to "short" the market ..... But !!! Go "LIGHT" on the shorting , main long term trend is still bullish ($SPX, $QQQQ .....etc ....)
4) Time to short Japan ? (via EWJ) No .... way oversold

Few pictures from Hong Kong

Just landed in Brussels

Wow, long flight do "get" to you ....... and guess what ? Soon heading to Costa Rica :)
Will sleep for a while then start blogging about "short selling".

Greetings from Asia

Spending a few days in Bangkok, watching that terrible event in Japan.
Thanks for all your great messages
A client in Hong Kong made a good point ; If you HAD to blog again, what would you focus on ?
Took me 24 hours to answer ; "Shorting Stocks"
Hmmmm
Will NOT update everyday, but will bring you the Best Stocks to short (based on my GVN condition and ABC pattern)

Time to move on

Yes, time to move on.
I shall soon travel to Hong Kong to teach several traders my ABC pattern and GVN condition (combined with a few more techniques).
Come back to Brussels for a few days, then travel to Morocco (to see my farms, olives, cows ....)
Towards the end of the month, heading to Costa Rica for a trading seminar (with of course a little tourism there).
Voilà, pretty busy, hard to constantly update the blog, respond to over 100 emails .....
So I had to make a simple choice ; Taking care of my "paying clients".
Once I give a trading seminar, I do a follow up that lasts 12 months.
You can learn a lot by simply reading all my old posts :)
Good luck
PS : Contact me at moiselevi@gmail.com if you are interested in the seminars