Hello from Hong Kong

Great trading seminar today, facing the harbor from a high rise building.
Then .... Just found out that FXCM has an office here that trains future currency traders ! Went to visit the place ....
Incredible ! It's like having a school to gamble at Las Vegas !
Going to a trade fair mañana !
Then, Macau ... Gambler's paradise
Real estate traders here buy and sell the same apartments over 12 times ....

Last chart before heading to Hong Kong

SP 500 chart, pay attention to the high probability arrow I have in mind (focus on VXX)
Next articles will not have any charts on them since my Ipad does not allow me to upload pictures to my blog (if anyone knows how to do it ....... let me know)

iPath SP 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXX)

iPath SP 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXX) chart analysis ;
Focusing on those key entry levels

Heading back to Asia

Another trip to Asia, seminar, business trip, and of course some fun time :)
Blogging will be light :)

Google and my Apple's Ipad collect and store location information

How do I get out of this mess ;
Here I was cheating on my wife, there I was in a place I was not supposed to be there, and let see if I remember , Oh yeah, there I was drunk and insulted someone ......

My Ipad gets infos when I am connected to Wi-Fi networks, and Google collects data from Wi-Fi-connected computers that use Google's Chrome browser or search "toolbar."
Where is the DELETE button when you need it !!!

Warning from Bank of America Corporation (BAC) ?

Bank of America Corporation (BAC) chart analysis ;
1) Back on key support level (ex key buy trigger)
2) Focus on that re entry level
3) Market is trending up, financials are trending DOWN !
4) If we break down below that support level, shall we see another financial crisis ?

SP 500 chart analysis

SP 500 chart update ;
1) Basic trading system (5&50 days exp MA crossover) still bullish (see re entry in mid March)
2) Price above trigger level (key resistance level)
3) High global inflation means buy stocks and keep buying them ?
4) Still out of the market
Gut feeling ? Expecting a fake move

Natural Gas weekly chart analysis

Natural Gas weekly chart analysis ;
$NATGAS showing signs of wanting to "burst" out
Higher lows pattern intact
Focus on those initial bullish triggers (price break out levels)
Key trigger level is clear

iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology Index ETF (IBB)

iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology Index ETF (IBB) chart analysis ;
1) Clear up the stairs pattern
2) On my watch list
3) New price channel ?
4) Not a buyer .... Yet

Yes, the Euro confirms a Greek solution

Greece Athens General Share index versus the Euro Dollar (weekly chart)
1) Goes from connected, to dis connected, with the Euro acting as a leading indicator
2) Greece does default, and faces another type of agreement (Up to 40% loss for investors, and probably a bigger delay to repay their debt). We should probably thank Germany.
3) Greece gets kicked out ? I doubt it.
4) Watch the index ! A break out above 1800 would confirm this theory.
PS : If my theory is right, I am expecting a pull back in the Euro
You save Greece, you save Portugal, Ireland, Spain, you print, you print, you print .......

US Dollar versus the Brazilian Real

US Dollar versus the Brazilian real LT weekly chart ;
1) Right on key "last support level"
2) Bet you that some central bankers are NOT sleeping well ....
3) Prime target ? Brazil's export to the US ?
4) Re entry level is clear, we could be oversold, and some may say ; How about a double bottom pattern ?
5) Next 5 to 10 days will see some heavy volatility, fasten your seatbelts

Just finished reading Super boom by Jeffrey A. Hirsch

In Super Boom, Jeffrey Hirsch, President of the Hirsch Organization and Editor in Chief of the Stock Trader’s Almanac, unveils the next market expansion. Building on his father’s research from 1976, Hirsch has discovered that meteoric rises in stock indices are due to specific catalysts predominantly outside of the financial markets. Step-by-step, Hirsch puts together the pieces of this puzzle by revealing the central drivers of a super boom, namely inflation, peace between major wars, and new enabling technologies.
Very well written

Expecting a MAJOR move in the US Dollar

US Dollar daily chart analysis ;
1) Down the stairs pattern is VERY clear
2) Expecting a "spike down", all the way to 70 ?
3) Dollar crash = Global panic = Get OUT of equities ???
As usual, expect the unexpected, but, it does not smell good .....

Forex trade of the year update, EURCHF

Euro versus Swiss Fr weekly chart ;
1) I have been calling this the forex trade of the year
2) Euro is trying to form a bottom pattern (higher lows)
3) Expecting move wild swings until price gets into a tight range, then breaks out above 1.3200.
4) When price does break out, expecting also a sudden reversal to re test that break out.
5) LT price fall (parabolic fall) = Do not expect a V shape reversal

Euro Dollar chart update

Euro Dollar chart update ;
1) Yes, key support level did hold (see recent chart posted, weekly & daily)
2) Breaking resistance level, again ...
3) Greece, Ireland, Portugal ??? All bad news priced in ? Not so sure yet, but its a safer bet against the $USD Dollar.
PS : Euro strengh ? No until it starts to break out versus the Swiss Fr

Apple Inc. (AAPL) chart analysis

Apple Inc. (AAPL) chart analysis ;
1) Key support level confirmed by price/volume action
2) Candle reversal (spike down and reverse) confirms bullish action
3) Red arrow = Most probable scenario ; All good news probably priced in

This time its different, right ?

Silver monthly prices, 1983 to April 2011.
This time its different, right ?
I guess the public will now start to buy silver, and push prices much higher ....
Main news channel will start to talk about it, and the end of the $USD Dollar ...
BUT !
Being bullish is OK
Just remember that silver tends to retrace "HARD"
Its a MAJOR parabolic rise, not ready to reverse, yet .....

Teekay Corporation (TK), crude oil transportation

Teekay Corporation (TK) chart analysis ;
1) Basic "perfect" uptrend
2) Up the stairs pattern
3) Focus on that key support level, wait for a test of that level then an eventual bounce higer to go long.
4) Fundamentals stink .....
Teekay Corporation provides crude oil and petroleum product transportation services in Bermuda and internationally. The company's Shuttle Tanker and FSO includes shuttle tankers and FSO units for providing transportation and storage services to oil companies operating offshore oil field installations primarily in the North Sea and Brazil. Its FPSO segment includes FPSO units and other vessels used to provide transportation, production, processing, and storage services to oil companies operating offshore oil field installations. Teekay Corporation's Liquefied Gas segment consists of LNG and LPG carriers. Its Conventional Tankers segment includes conventional crude oil and product tankers operating in the spot charter market, and consists of Aframax, Suezmax, and large and medium product tankers that are employed on long-term time-charters. The company has a fleet of 150 vessels. As of March 31, 2010, it had four shuttle tankers, one LPG carrier, four LNG carriers, and two multi-gas carriers under construction. The company was founded in 1973 and is headquartered in Hamilton, Bermuda.

Google Inc. (GOOG) chart analysis

Google Inc. (GOOG) "weekly" chart analysis ;
1) Focus on that "initial break out" ; Key support level ?
2) Re entry and full re entry levels are quite clear
3) Allow price to "rest" in a tight price channel first.

Molycorp, Inc. (MCP)

Molycorp, Inc. (MCP) chart analysis ;
1) Clean break out above the $62.5 level
2) Current uptrend too steep ? Probably
3) Stock and sector in a major uptrend
4) Next ? Buy on the dip should be on your mind

Molycorp, Inc., a development stage company, focuses on the production and sale of rare earth oxides from stockpiled feedstocks in the western hemisphere. The company operates the Mountain Pass mine, a non-Chinese rare earth deposit located in San Bernardino County, California. Its rare earth products are used as inputs in various existing and emerging applications comprising clean energy technologies; multiple high-tech uses; defense applications; and water treatment technology.

Scary chart when you use your imagination

Yes people, I LOVE to short stocks and/or use put options.
I LOVE bad news :)
But ! The key to success is planing, (Quick reminder, this is MY trading diary)
1) Price cannot get above that key 08 resistance level, so basically this recent uptrend was just a retracement ? mmmm
2) Triple A rating is dead ? We know its dead, but now they have the guts to say it !
3) Was this recent move up our head ? (Head and shoulder pattern)
4) 1250 is our main key short trigger
5) If SP downgrades once, will they downgrade again ? Bien sur !! (Of course)
6) Will China still hold debt being downgraded ? Maybe .....
7) Moodys ? Fitch ? Where are you ??
8) BANKS are dead ???? Again ??? Who will save them ???
9) Double bottom, price bounces up, war starts somewhere (where oil is), US refuses to pay back its debt, seize gold & silver from its citizens ...... blablabla .....
10) We all push the reset button, and start again "clean"
Gut feeling ??? Forget it, its just my imagination running wild :)
He who makes the rules, can change them anytime ......
The US Govt can decide to TAX gold owners 50% ! for holding physical gold ......

PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish (UUP)

PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish (UUP) "weekly" chart analysis ;
1) Pay attention to that LT key support level, now a key resistance
2) Focus on that "short trigger"
3) A break below that "short trigger" could/may create a global panic, vis à vis the $USD Dollar

Euro Dollar daily and weekly analysis

Euro Dollar daily and weekly chart analysis ;
1) Focus on that "out" level (both daily & weekly)
2) Daily ; Uptrend is intact
3) Weekly (LT) ; Lower highs still intact
4) Was that recent uptrend a "fake move" ?
5) A monthly close below 1.4000 would confirm a LT lower highs pattern (bearish)
Gut feeling ? NOT bullish on the $USD ....... Not at all .......

Will trade my high tech empire based on nothing, in US Dollar, for your silver ?

Will trade my high tech (internet) empire, based on NOTHING , in $USD Dollar, for your Mexican silver ?
Taxco, Mexico, is probably the home of future billionaires :)

Time to short AOL, Inc. (AOL) ?

AOL, Inc. (AOL) chart analysis ;
1) Google lost over 8% on Friday, warning signal for AOL ?
2) Was buying the Huffington Post such a smart idea ?
3) Bearish pattern is intact
4) Focus on that "short trigger"
5) Re entry level is quite clear (I doubt we get over it soon)

BBC, One shock away from a global crisis

Food price changes Q1 2010 to Q1 2011
Maize, up over 70% !
Wheat, up 69% !
Palm Oil, up 55% !
Soybeans, up 36% !
Beef, up 30% !
Source (World bank)
You can read the full article right here (BBC)
Like I have said several times in the past ;
1) Invest in farm lands, grow something, or raise cattle :)
2) Sell to China, and keep the profits in their local currency
PS : You still have time to move to Costa Rica :)
PS 2 : The future belongs to farmers :)

Nicolas Darvas, developing the box theory

Great Panther Silver Ltd (GPL)
Great Panther Silver Limited engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and operation of mineral properties and mines in Mexico. It focuses on the exploration of gold, silver, lead, zinc, and precious metals.
Now, we could look at this chart and simply say, ok, nice uptrend, up the stairs pattern, easy to spot an entry level.
Take the time to read and listen to the box theory by Nicolas Darvas
http://www.nicolasdarvas.org/stockmarket04.php

1) He was looking for home runs
2) Strong industry (20 years outlook)
3) Buy dear, and sell dearer
4) Needed a reliable method !

You can start on chapter 1 right here if you prefer to read the full ebook

Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE)

Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) chart analysis ;
1) Trading signal is "still" bullish, but for how long ?
2) Focus on that "short trigger level"
3) Price/volume action confirms bearish divergence

Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF)

Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF) chart analysis ;
1) Bearish ABC pattern ?
2) "C" stands right below the key support level
3) Bullish re entry is quite clear
Gut feeling : We are not out of the financial mess yet, so not expecting an "happy ending yet"
Stay out, observe

SP 500 chart update

SP 500 chart update ;
1) Clear double top pattern
2) Resistance "channel" is clear
3) Some chartists see a head and shoulder pattern .....
4) Trading signal is still in a buy mode
5) Bearish reversal level is VERY clear
Gut feeling : Not expecting a bullish break out, energy stocks are keeping the SP 500 up (heavy weight, market cap within the SP), financials and techs are showing a clear divergence

Is International Business Machines Corp. (IBM) overbought ?

International Business Machines Corp. (IBM) chart analysis ;
1) Focus on that key resistance level
2) Pay attention to that "stop loss level"
3) Expecting a flat year for IBM

Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) trading plan

Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) trading plan
1) Quick reminder that this blog is my trading diary :)
2) So I'll often put notes on a chart that I find important (often hard to explain, but I am a "visual trader", so I need a clear picture, then I'll look for the key news events that may/could confirm my plan).
3) Is Cisco a GREAT company ? Sure
4) How can a GREAT company crash ? Welcome to the insane world of Wall Street.
5) Does this current price reflect reality ? Yes, and No
6) Yes, if you think that all known information is "priced in"
7) No, if you think that most investors have no idea how to value a company :)
8) How about the "I have no idea factor" ? Good, now we can talk :)
9) See those call/put levels ? Those levels are on my mind (Options, betting up and down).
10) Conclusion ; No, I do not want to hold the stock, but yes, I think that "expect the unexpected" is the next most probable scenario for Cisco

Apple Inc. (AAPL) chart analysis

Apple Inc. (AAPL) chart analysis ;
1) Short term indicator is still in a sell mode
2) Main pattern since Feb ; Lower highs (bearish)
3) Price did bounce up yesterday, on key support channel, will it hold ?
4) Another fall below 330 will send Apple Inc. (AAPL) to its 200 days exp MA
5) Bullish scenario ? We need to see Apple back above its 50 days exp MA

First Trust ISE Revere Natural Gas ETF (FCG)

First Trust ISE Revere Natural Gas ETF (FCG) weekly chart analysis ;
1) Clear long term resistance channel broken
2) Price/volume action suggests we may need to re test that resistance as a key support level
3) Expect a sideway pattern with volatility
4) Full buy signal is right above $24

Time to short Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) ?

Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) "weekly" chart analysis ;
1) Parabolic rise, price did rise quite fast ($40 to $190)
2) Trailing PE : 71
3) Price to Book : 11.8
4) Internet or not, its still a retailer !
5) Well managed ? Sure ! Great company ? Sure, but not at this price .....
6) Focus on that "short trigger"
7) Out of the money option target = $140
PS : Can price still rise ? Sure, if it does, wait for a spike up, followed by a bearish reversal.
Thanks to Fut.Bot for spotting it :)

Great article about China

"China has benefits from and an interest in preserving the American-led system of globalization, which has created the environment conducive to its own growth. It also has an interest in preserving, for a long period of time, America's presence in Asia as it suppresses a regional arms race and thus gives time and resources for China to concentrate on its own economic growth. China also has an interest in keeping and safeguarding America's presence in the world as a conduit to increased trade and greater freedom of commerce."
Read the full article on Asia Times Online written by Francesco Sisci

Light crude oil probable scenario

Light crude oil probable scenario ;
1) Oil tends to form long channels, up the stairs patterns
2) All indicators are still bullish
3) The bullish break out in crude oil in mid Feb (right above $92), confirms the BEARISH reversal in the $USD index.
4) If the $USD Dollar index break below the 74.50 levels, expect crude oil to spike up again fast (above 108).
5) Current probability favors the light green arrow

Latin American crash ?

Heading towards a Latin American crash ?
Let us compare a few countries (daily chart of Argentina, Chile, Colombia) and a weekly chart for Brazil.
1) Those daily chart show a clear parabolic rise, huge price rise ......
2) Brazil ? Going no where for the past few years ..... Is the "Lula effect gone?"
3) Colombia, Argentina, and Chile have a clear inverted ABC pattern, with "C" as our short trigger.
4) Focus on Brazil and its key support level
PS : Ignore that scenario if Brazil manages to break above that key multi year resistance level

VelocityShares Daily 2x VIX Short Term ETN (TVIX)

VelocityShares Daily 2x VIX Short Term ETN (TVIX) chart analysis ;

1) ETN seeks to replicate, net of expenses, the returns of twice (2x) the daily performance of the SP 500 VIX Short-Term Futures index.
2) Recent sudden huge moves ; Fake moves, or a warning sign ??
3) Right on key support level
4) Huge volume anticipates another huge move ???
5) Focus on that safe entry level

The path to success

The path to success ..... Uusally looks like a complicated puzzle .....

Unless, of course you decide to lie, cheat, and cut corners .....
WTF .... life is too short right ?
What happens when you do reach that success too fast ? (By cheating)

You probably end up broke, back to square one ....

Natural Gas, daily and weekly analysis

Natural Gas, daily and weekly analysis ;
1) The longer the base, the bigger the break out
2) Expect more "wild moves" (volatility) until we clearly break out above $USD 5.
3) LT pattern still shows a higher lows
4) See that "C" level in the daily chart ? Next time we get above it, expect a huge up trend

Why should you pay attention to Egyptian inflation and rising food prices

"The prices of food and vegetables, the biggest component in the consumer price index, rose 20.5 percent this year"
As protests continue, tourists have stayed away and factory output has been hit by strikes.
Source : Bloomberg (view the full article)
The same story applies to many fast growing emerging markets.
Have you seen the price rise in soft commodities this week ? (Corn, Wheat ....etc ....)
Expect more global unrest.

Ford Motor Company (F)

Ford Motor Company (F) chart analysis ;
1) Yes, the recent "A" level did close that gap (see chart)
2) Still in a lower highs pattern
3) Basic momentum (divergence) ; Price higher than 6 months ago, lower than 3 months ago.
4) Trading system (5&50 exp MA) turned bullish
5) Price is TESTING if its 50 days exp MA is a reliable support level
6) We now have our "A" and "C", we now need a reliable "B" (support level)
7) Volume !!!! We need volume, a gap up on good news

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) weekly chart analysis ;
1) Clear stop loss (if you did buy it)
2) Clear support channel
3) Main LT pattern is still a lower highs (bearish)
4) Intel & Cisco = similar bearish LT pattern
PS : If you have to buy techs, focus on IBM and Oracle (wait for a pull back)

SP 500 Chart update

SP 500 chart update ;
One picture is worth 1000 words .... Right ?
Resistance is quite clear.
A break below that support would signal that the trend break out was "fake"
How about a typical ABC pattern, ready to break out ?
Its possible, meaning that all bad news is priced in ???
Still out, earnings season is coming, starting with Alcoa next week .....

Focus on Forex next week

Chart on top, $USD Dollar index ;
1) Weekly chart, right on key LT support level
2) Focus on 75.60 (bullish reversal), would confirm an oversold condition
3) All indicators are still very BEARISH

Second chart, Euro Dollar, weekly
1) Broke key trigger, as well as the LT downtrend
2) Overbought ?
3) Bearish reversal stands @ 1.4350 (would confirm overbought level)
4) Price tends to form parabolic rises

PS : No Govt shutdown = Dollar bullish reversal ? We shall soon see ......
Japanese investors are dumping global bonds
When will China dump their US Dollar bonds ? (The current loss so far is huge, and bond prices keep falling).

Debt forgiveness priced in ?

Is Debt Forgiveness for Portugal, Greece, Spain, and Ireland priced in ? Those countries face "no growth" with a high probability of default....
Just me brain storming ..... (Why are European markets still heading higher on a stronger Euro)
Doing some basic accounting .....
Create or die, right ?
They do NOT create and their brains are moving away ......
Good thing we have Germany paying the bill .... but for how long ???

Start digging for rare earth

Rare earth is big right now
Forget the internet, biotechs, real estate, commodities (Gold, Silver, Oil, Corn, Wheat ..... etc), the new buble (smart money usually invests there first) is in rare earth :)
How long will it last ???
I'll keep on digging :)

US Bond Crash Inevitable ?

US Bond crash invevitable ?
Focus on that chart of the CBOE Treasury yield (10 years)
1) Up trend was way too fast, price pulled back and DID find a reliable support
2) Trigger 1 was re activated (5 & 50 exp MA)
3) Facing now trigger 2, and 3
Logic is simple, inflation is back (see recent price rise in energy and soft commodities), and investors will demand a HIGHER yield from a BANKRUPT country ..... a country about to shut down its Government !!!
Am I nuts or America is moving to Socialism ???

Citigroup Inc. (C) chart analysis

Citigroup Inc. (C) chart analysis ;
1) Lower highs pattern intact
2) Higher than 6 months ago, lower than 3 months ago (Divergence)
3) Basic trading system (5 & 50 exp MA) still not bullish
4) Re entry confirms level of that downtrend
5) Volume ..... We need volume !!!

Will Greece default ?

Greece Athens General Share index ($ATG)
1) Weekly chart
2) Bearish trend is intact
3) Stuck in a long channel pattern, ready to test again that low point, then what ?
4) Sudden rise in price ? Very low probability
5) Other warnings ? Portugal ......
Question ; Euro is rising, is it a fake move or it is anticipating that the ECB will intervene again ?

Travelzoo Inc. (TZOO)

Just got stopped out of  Travelzoo Inc. (TZOO) , oh well, will try again soon :)

iPath SP 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXX)

iPath SP 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXX) chart analysis ;
1) Focus on that "key support level"
2) Re entry 1 is clear
3) Add positions "only" on the way up !
4) ABC pattern ? Not yet, we need another higher low