Busy reading The Wizard of Lies, by Diana B Henriques

The Wizard of Lies, by Diana B Henriques
Got the book early :)
Its about Bernie Madoff and the death of trust
Why is this book special ? The full account of the largest financial fraud by the journalist who has access to Madoff in prison ....

USD Dollar index

$USD Dollar index hourly chart
Note the clear resistance/lower highs
Back on "last support level"
Was that a clear fake move ? We shall soon find out

CHFUSD, Swiss Franc versus US Dollar

$CHFUSD, Swiss Franc versus the $USD Dollar (hourly chart)
Clear break out level
Focus on that key support/stop loss level

Light crude oil chart analysis

Light Crude Oil hourly chart update
1) Clear current resistance level, has faced multiple "fake moves"
2) Bullish reversal trigger is clear
3) Support is also "clear" (see wild moves)

Euro Dollar update

Euro Dollar hourly chart
Price break out, will it hold ?
Focus on that stop loss
Makes no sense ....

Guess who is back ? The Baltic Dry Index

Baltic Dry Index, daily chart using a basic 5,20, and 50 days exp MA crossover.
Buy signal activated.
Notice that potential ABC pattern ?
Is shipping back ?
Warning : Do not consider it as a leading indicator

What to do with your Euros

Before you focus on this Euro Dollar chart, I urge you to first look at the weekly chart of :
1) Euro versus Swiss Franc
2) Euro versus Japanese Yen
Those other pairs could be sending us a clear signal about the next direction of the Euro.
If you are a Bridge player, you know the rules, the cards on the table basically tell you what clear options you have.
In this case, the options are very simple ;
1) The Euro has priced in a Greek default ?
2) We have no clue what the ECB is doing, we have no idea if they lie to us, we have no idea how big the damage to our banks will be if Greece does default.
3) Gut feeling tells me that in order to save those countries, the ECB will have to print print print, sending the Euro crashing in order to increase those countries exports and tourism (only way for those countries to pay back their debt). A higher Euro can only destroy them more.
Trading plan !
A break below 1.4000 (within the next two weeks) will confirm my gut feeling.
A break above 1.4400 and 1.4900 means GET OUT of European financial ASSETS !!!!!

Simple solution if you are holding Euros ?
Real Estate properties in Thailand, Costa Rica, and Morocco :)
Got many properties available, with great yield :)

PS : Can the Euro still go up and Greece does not default ?
Unknown factor ! Always expect the unexpected !

Euro Dollar level to watch next week

Euro Dollar "hourly" chart ; Focus on that key level next week

Natural Gas is back

$NATGAS weekly chart analysis ;
Remember one key fact about long term bases with higher lows, break outs are HUGE.
Fake moves you see are quite normal after a major fall.
Short cover themselves, a bottom is formed, then most of the time we do NOT have a "V" shape recovery, but a long base pattern. 

LinkedIn Corporation (LNKD)

LinkedIn Corporation (LNKD) ;
Focus on the level where I am going to short it
Main reason ? PE level = Over 1300 !!!!
See that re entry level ? You never know, more fools could push it up again

QQQ Chart analysis

QQQ chart analysis ;
1) Fake move means fake double top ?
2) Price facing resistance at its 50 days exp MA
3) Bear trigger is clear, if broken, will send QQQ to its 200 days exp MA
4) Current chart pattern suggests we are heading for move sideway moves.
5) Not expecting any major break outs, re test of its 200 days exp MA is highly probable

PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish (UUP)

PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish (UUP) chart analysis ;
1) Do we have an ABC pattern ?
2) Not yet ! We now need higher lows on a confirmed support level (B)
3) The good news ? "A" is clear, so is the full buy trigger, "C"
4) But ! The main question is, are we facing a similar fake move ? See chart

SP 500 daily chart analysis

SP 500 ($SPX) daily chart analysis ;
1) Basic trading system (5&50 exp MA) still not in a buy mode
2) See that blue arrow ? Still confirms the resistance @ 1340
3) Key bearish reversal stands @ 1310

Doral Financial Corp. (DRL)

Doral Financial Corp. (DRL) chart analysis ;
Not the first time I have mentioned Doral. This bullish reversal was quite easy to spot, its called a GVN condition !
Gap, Volume, and News !
This pattern is quite reliable

Buying Bank of America Corporation (BAC)

Just bought shares of Bank of America Corporation (BAC) ;
1) Focus on that stop loss
2) Target is clear ; Its 50 days exp MA
Gut feeling ; Way oversold

On my watch list right now

1) Tiffany & Co ( TIF ), clean break out on a perfect uptrend. GVN condition (Gap, Volume, News).
2) Canon Inc Adr ( CAJ ), I am a Nikon fan, but got to admit that it looks like an ABC pattern is about to take shape :)
3) Market Vectors Vietnam ETF ( VNM ), no, not a buyer yet .....
4) Sprint Nextel Corporation ( S ), allow a pull back first, patience, do not chase it.
5) Coach Inc ( COH ), triple top break out on increased volume :)
6) Salesforce.com ( CRM ), looks like a major break out, but always waiting to see a confirmation, pull back to re test that prior resistance, then zooming up. Otherwise, it could signal a fake move

USD Dollar index

Compare the daily chart (first one) and the hourly chart for the $USD index
Initial reversal level is a "key support level", will it hold ? We shall soon find out !
Daly chart ; LT picture is still bearish unless we break above that key down trend. 

Euro Dollar daily chart analysis

Euro Dollar daily chart analysis ;
1) Focus on that 50 days exp MA
2) Price facing a typical retracement after an oversold condition ??
3) Re entry = Reversal level (see chart)
4) Short triggers, see levels on the chart

EURUSD

$EURUSD, 5 min chart update
Fake move was clear, focus on that "last key support" ; A break below will send us back to 1.3950.

New Zealand Dollar versus USD Dollar, NZDUSD

New Zealand Dollar versus USD Dollar,  $NZDUSD (Weekly chart).
One picture is worth 1000 words .....
Head and Shoulder pattern ? Looks like it.
Expect a "wild move soon"

Intel Corporation (INTC)

Intel Corporation (INTC) being tested right now.
GVN condition (Gap, Volume & News), followed by a break out above the important resistance, then pull back to test that "key level"
Clean re entry stands right above $23.25

USD Dollar index

$USD Dollar index (5 min chart)
Overbought level is clear
Pay attention to the "re entry levels"

Expecting bad news from Xerox Corporation (XRX) ?

Xerox Corporation (XRX) chart analysis ;
1) Clear lower highs, acting much weaker than the market & techs in general
2) Multiple fake moves
3) Right on key support level
4) Expecting a break below that key support on REAL BAD NEWS

Apple Inc. (AAPL)

Apple Inc. (AAPL) chart analysis ;
Now you know why I am NOT buying (still bullish on Apple), but hate those patterns.
MT & LT picture = Still very bullish
Its not Apple's fault, its the SP 500 !
SP 500 main bullish trigger now stands @ 1345
Expect Apple to remain in this "range"
BUT ! If the SP 500 breaks below 1300, Apple will re test the 320 levels

The Home Depot, Inc. (HD)

The Home Depot, Inc. (HD) chart analysis ;
Clear tight price channel
Will support hold ?
LT picture is still bullish, have HD on your watch list when the SP 500 turns up again

Silver re entry

Silver hourly chart ; Focus on that level "why I sold", it also confirms the 50 days exp MA.
Allow a "channel pattern to take place", tight channel, then I'll post again my entry level.

Clear picture in my head

This cartoon reflects clearly what is on my mind.
Focus on key themes, and trade them
How about techs ? There is only one Apple ;  MSFT, HPQ, and CSCO are in deep trouble.
VXX ? Yes, its on my mind ; Still waiting for a key entry level (right now at 24.5)
PS : I turned 45 today !!!!
It only gets better :)

Copper moment of truth

Copper weekly chart ;
One picture is worth 1000 words. Key resistance level is VERY CLEAR
Moment of truth ..... very soon

Break down in American International Group, Inc. (AIG) means a double dip ?

American International Group, Inc. 

(AIG) sends us a clear message ; Something nasty is about to take place.
Volume action means GET ME OUT NOW !

Euro Dollar probable scenario ?

Print this chart, post it on your wall ;
1) Fake move is now clear
2) Current target = 1.3500
3) Ignore scenario if the Euro climbs back above its main resistance, 1.4200
We need a Euro crash to save the PIIGS !

Sold my iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV)

Just sold my iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV). See my old posts regarding my entry level with a stop at $32.
Still bullish on silver, buy taking profits due to resistance levels.

US Dollar index chart analysis

$USD Dollar index hourly chart
1) Key support did hold
2) Clear higher lows
3) Focus on that next break out level
4) Warning ! LT picture is still bearish

BSE India Bombay Sensex 30

BSE India Bombay Sensex 30 Index chart analysis ;
1) Price well below MT & LT exp moving averages
2) Most trading systems are now 100% bearish
3) Focus on those "danger levels"

Russia RTS (Russian Trading System) Index

Russia RTS (Russian Trading System) Index chart update.
Basically following light crude oil prices.
Expect a bounce up (way oversold) leading to a channel pattern

Raising stop in Silver

Raising stop in Silver
(See older posts where I bought Silver using 32 as an initial stop)
Expect wild moves, get use to them :)

SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)

SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD) chart analysis ;
Clear simple trading system seems to work pretty well (5 & 50 days exp MA)
Note how the 50 days exp MA has been a reliable support level
Next trigger (add positions) level is clear
Bearish reversal stands @ 145

Time to dump International Business Machines Corp. (IBM) ?

International Business Machines Corp. (IBM) chart analysis ;
1) Resistance is clear
2) Support level is clear (also confirms the "trigger" level), your last stop
3) Re entry ? Well, first worry about QQQ (chart does not look good right now).

USD Dollar index weekly chart, never forget the LT chart

$USD Dollar index "weekly" chart, always pay attention to the LT picture.
1) Clear LT key support level
2) Does that mean that the recent break below that key support was an oversold condition ?
3) Trend line is very clear (not broken yet)
4) Key bearish reversal now stands below 75

Shanghai Stock Exchange Comp update

Shanghai Index chart analysis ;
Main question is, is the big picture still intact ? ABC pattern ? Is this part of a bigger move ?
We have clear lower highs fighting higher lows.
Pay attention to the "B" level, it confirms the importance of the initial trigger !
Re entry level is clear, so is the warning level.
Focus on oil and copper, they will soon tell us Shanghai's next move

Same old story, smart money versus dumb money

Funny how a few weeks ago, the trend in the Euro Dollar, Gold, and Silver was quite clear (UP).
BUT ! I also mentioned (posted a chart) that bonds did show a bullish reversal .....
Title was ; Is the smart money moving to bonds ??
Goldman warned on oil ....
Then Soros warned us on Gold (not sure he is right)
Funny puzzle as usual, no wonder I have stayed out for a while (invested less than 5% on Silver).
Not feeling like shorting ..... No real triggers to short yet
Missed TZOO by a few hours ..... mmmm
Will not miss LNKD (that BS Linkedin)
Like I said, same old story .....
PS : About the buyer's remorse .... also called buyers on the dip :)

Euro Dollar 5min chart

$EURUSD, Euro Dollar 5 min chart update ;
Focus on the higher lows
Short trigger
Slightly oversold ? probably

Natural Gas is back

5 Min chart of Natural Gas ;
Typical ABC pattern
Been showing signs of a bullish reversal (daily & weekly charts)

Money flowing back to bonds

US 10 Year Note chart analysis ;
As mentioned a few weeks ago, smart money was flowing back to the bond market
Pay attention to the trigger level, and target.
Stop stands @ 122
The Chinese did NOT to sell it :) They probably kept on buying :)

New stop loss on USD Dollar index

New stop loss on $USD Dollar index (hourly chart)

Investing in what you know

I took this picture in Hong Kong.
Simple business model, go out to the sea (not too far), park your boat, start selling.
No taxes, no employees, no problems ..... :)
He is smarter than us, he kept it simple
Solving a problem, keeping it simple = $$$$$

EURCHF, Euro Swiss Franc, the real sign of trouble

EURCHF, Euro versus the Swiss Franc ;
Earlier this year, I expected that this was the "Forex trade of the year!"
See that fake move, right @ 1.3200, pattern was a clear double bottom, length of the downtrend was way too long ....
Recent events show that the EU (currency) zone is in deep sh....t
It would be better for the ECB to actually tell us the truth, markets do not like uncertainty.
The EURCHF is actually pricing in a Greek disaster .....
But then again, they'll probably try to convince us that "they are not responsible for that mess", it was Goldman's fault ....

iPath SP 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXX)

iPath SP 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXX) re entry levels.
VIX indicator is way oversold, focus on the VXX next week

A Euro crash will save Spain, Portugal, Ireland, and Greece

Euro Dollar monthly chart ;
1) Lower highs, maybe the ECB is up to something :)
2) Pay attention to those levels, estimated levels to save the EU zone countries.
3) Weak currencies will boost exports, tourism .. etc
4) Germany to be the big winner :)
4) Will bring Asian investors looking for opportunities

ETFs to watch next week

1) Financial Sel Sect Spdr Fd ( XLF ), support level since mid March is now broken. Basic trading system is also bearish. But ! LT picture is still ok.
2) Ishares Msci Japan Index Fd ( EWJ ), heading for a double dip ? Not so fast, as long as we remain above the April low, pattern is still in a higher lows (since early March)
3) ishares Gold Trust ETF (IAU), nice bounce up right above its 5O days exp MA 

SP 500, what you need to know

SP 500, key levels you need to know ;
1) Re entry
2) Warning
3) Out
My friend Olivier, you can read his great blog here, http://www.tischendorf.com/  reminded me that it has been a while since the sell in May did not take place.
He is right, we could face a major slow down
We could actually face a global slow down if you read the latest news .....

Artist Ai Weiwei busted in China for tax evasion

"Tax evasion ? That is a capitalist excuse !!"
China alleges HUGE tax evasion by the artist Ai Weiwei .....