See you soon

Back in about 8 to 9 days, heading to Morocco, hope nothing wrong happens in the market :)

Euro Dollar update

Euro fighting hard , we seem to have a "reliable support level"

Focus on the key bullish trigger and the stop loss

CHFUSD, Forex, daily and hourly chart

CHFUSD, Swiss versus the $USD

Watch out for a major break out (daily chart)

Hourly chart shows that this level did cause multiple fake moves ....

Another fake move or a reliable break out to come ?

Busy reading "I Am John Galt"

Busy reading I Am John Galt: Today's Heroic Innovators Building the World and the Villainous Parasites Destroying It.

Inspired by Ayn Rand's characters in Atlas Shrugged and The Fountainhead, penetrating profiles of both the innovators who move our world forward and those who seek to destroy the achievement of others John Galt, the fictional character from Ayn Rand's bestselling novel, Atlas Shrugged, has come to embody the individualist capitalist who acts in his own enlightened self interest, and in doing so lifts the world around him. Some of today's most successful CEOs, journalists, sports figures, actors, and thinkers have led their lives according to Galt's (i.e., Rand's) philosophy.

Stories gathered by well-known market commentator Donald Luskin and business writer Andrew Greta. Filled with exclusive interviews, profiles, and analyses of leading financial, business, and artistic stars who have based their lives, and careers, on the philosophy of the perennially popular Ayn Rand, this book both inspires and enlightens. On the other side are Rand's arch villains?

The power-seekers, parasites, and lunatics who would destroy that which the creators and builders make. Who are today's anti-heroes, fighting the creativity of the innovators?

iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV), was Silver shortage all hype ?

iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) chart analysis ;

Key question to ask yourself ; Was Silver shortage all hype ?

Mike Maloney is a good example (Silver going to 100 !)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m7hzFugOoqQ

Here is another good example

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C_da4WiojjE

Their argument is pretty good .....

Unless this chart pattern is part of a bigger pattern ?

Watch price/volume action in the next 2 to 4 weeks, we shall soon find out what scenario will take place. Focus on that key support level.

Heading soon to Morocco

Heading soon to Morocco :)

Time to visit my farm (olives, olive oil and cows) in very sunny Meknes :)

Current trip ; Fez, Meknes, Casablanca, and la grande finale, a seminar in Marrakech :)

As usual, will take lots of pictures :)

Blogging will be "light", very light .....

Bank of America Corporation (BAC) trading plan

Bank of America Corporation (BAC) chart analysis ;

1) The facts, just the facts ! Yes, we are "forming" some sort of "bottom pattern".

2) Reliable ? Not yet. Why ? Would like to see some more higher lows "above" $11.

3) Trading plan is as follow ; See that trigger level ? Its our KEY entry on price break out. Would love to see a gap up on increased volume when the break out takes place.

4) Quick reminder ; Trend is still bearish, so use tight stops.

Chart du jour, Euro Dollar, EURUSD

Euro Dollar, $EURUSD, hourly chart is our chart du jour

Focus on that key support level, a break below means short hard

Re entry (bullish reversal) is quite clear (see chart)

Vix chart analysis

VIX weekly chart ($VIX)

Oversold level was quite clear (see light green arrow)

Main problem with this current trigger ? The number of "fake moves"

Do not ignore that trigger ....

USD Dollar index

$USD Dollar index chart update ;

Clear Key level to watch next week

Typical ABC pattern

Lets see if "C" will be activated

iPath SP 500 VIX Short Term Futures ETN (VXX)

iPath SP 500 VIX Short Term Futures ETN (VXX) chart update ;

Notice the huge volume increase ?

Key trigger is clear, if price breaks out above it, expect that blue arrow scenario

Pfizer Inc. (PFE), fake move du jour

Pfizer Inc. (PFE) chart analysis ;

Fake move du jour, on increased volume ....

Well, was expected since the market was heading down ....

Key support is clear (can be used as your last stop loss)

SP 500 chart update

SP 500 chart update ;

Key support level is quite clear (its 200 days exp MA)

Re entry is also quite clear

Renren Inc (RENN), clear message for Facebook

Renren Inc (RENN), also known as China's Facebook .....

One chart = 1000 words .....

Next to crash, Linkedin (LNKD) ?

Reminds me of Public Enemy's song ; "Don't believe the hype"

Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM)

Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) chart analysis ;

Basically, try to first focus on light crude oil prices

That last candle does give us a clear support and re entry level

Probability of a retracement ? Watch crude oil .....

Purple arrow scenario ? Gut feeling says medium to low probability

How to plan a trade

Using the PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish (UUP), I'll show you how I plan a trade.

Key questions I first ask myself ;

1) What is the main ST & LT trend ?

2) Are we oversold/overbought ?

3) Facing a potential reversal (bullish/bearish)

4) What LEVELS will allow me to PLAN the next trade ?

5) Are scenarios CLEAR in my head, so that if I am not in front of a computer, I can clearly know where price stands ???

6) UUP can ONLY do three things (see arrows on the chart)

7) Focus on the trigger levels, and wait for a key event (news) to activate one of those scenarios.

Silver hourly chart update

Silver hourly chart update ;

Key support is clear (so is the resistance level)

Focus on that "re entry level"

USD Dollar index

$USD Dollar index hourly chart ;

Another typical ABC pattern

"A", price zooms up

Price pulls back and finds at reliable support @ "B"

Price goes back up to break above "A", we call this break out "C"

Key question now, will current "B" level hold ?

Main full buy triggers are clear

What a fake move in Gold

What a fake move in Gold ! (hourly) chart

Crude oil confirms global slow down ?

Focus on that key support (light crude oil)

A break below will confirm a global slow down

Warning : Crude oil & Shanghai index are "key" leading indicators

Euro Dollar update

Euro Dollar update (daily and hourly)

Focus on that "key last support level"

A break below will cause "severe" damage

Eastman Kodak Company (EK)

Eastman Kodak Company (EK) ;

No need for 10,000 words ....

Price tries to zoom up above its 50 days exp MA (end of March), GVN condition (Gap, Volume, and News) ; first major fake move.

Price zooms up again .... and ? We now have a clear entry level :)

Notice the volume pattern

Be patient, DO NOT buy NOW !!!!

iShares MSCI Brazil Index ETF (EWZ)

iShares MSCI Brazil Index ETF (EWZ) "weekly chart"

I wrote several months ago that Brazil and Latin America would be "in trouble".

Lula's engine is dead ....

It was easy growth due to global demand in an up trending market .....

Lets see how they deal with a global slow down .....

Expecting a PROBABLE crash, followed by a higher demand to buy $USD as security.

Could I be wrong ?

Sure, the US economy gets better and strong tomorrow, China's Shanghai index zooms up, Oil gets back over $100 .....

ProShares UltraShort SP500 ETF (SDS)

ProShares UltraShort SP500 ETF (SDS) chart analysis ;

See that fake move in March ? Was followed by another attempt, then a clear break out.

Keep it simple.

Its a pity we do not have a simple trading system that does the job for us , right ?

Imagine coming back from work, golf, vacations, and checking your positive account all the time ..... mmmm

Our main problem is our brain ; And since emotions do control us, we need a simple trading plan. Even a simple trading plan is often not enough .....

You see how SDS zoomed up then pulled back right above its 50 days exp MA ?

That's the easy part, its called an ABC pattern

Meaning ? All you got to do is wait for a price break out above "C", and use "C" as your stop loss .....

Why not buy now with a stop @ 21 ?

Like I said, our brain needs a simple trading plan so I can go play golf :)

Message from the USD Dollar index ?

The $USD Dollar index is trying once again to push higher

Focus on key support/trigger levels

Morning screen

8:00 AM Brussels time ;

Silver ; Futures are down, pattern still shows a lower highs, (fake move right above $36.50), key support stands at $35. Very bullish if we get above $37.5

EURUSD : Not able to break above 1.4400, next key support @ 1.4200

$USD Index, another attempt to break out above 76.5 ? Key support now stands @75

Jason Kelly, a financial blogger who did something important

http://jasonkelly.com/

Read his blog, and find out how what he did in Japan after the disaster, amazing story

WHY SOCKS?
Several reasons. Many of the survivors ended up barefoot after fleeing in a hurry. In the disaster zone, feet get wet and then extra cold at night, especially in currently freezing weather. People often forget about socks in favor of more obvious items like blankets and jackets. Receiving a new, fresh pair of socks provides a moment of comfort. If those socks arrive with a caring note as well, it’s very heartening for survivors. If you’ve ever been stuck in a pair of wet, cold socks or no socks at all, perhaps you remember how soothing it felt to pull on a warm, dry pair. Survivors have already requested socks on TV news.

Socks aren’t primary support, but a token of care that will last beyond their small mid-crisis comfort. All supplies exist here in Japan, so we wanted something that delivered meaning past the need of the moment, something more special than what people get from emergency teams and government supplies. Military socks are not the most comfortable. Small joys matter. A March 17 CNN article observed about the survivors: “It was the little things that helped them retain their sanity as an end to crisis still seemed distant.” The next day, an AP story said a city hall worker reported his town needing “gas, vegetables, socks, underwear, wet wipes and anti-bacterial lotion.” Most importantly, shelters themselves are requesting socks.

http://jasonkelly.com/helpjapan/

When to use the MACD

I do not often mention the MACD unless I see a real oversold/overbought condition in it.

Its the case right now

How reliable is it ?

1) I pay mostly attention to the crossover level (above/below the 0)

2) Overbought/oversold

3) Why ? Many traders do, so you might as well consider what "they" are about to do :)

PS : Price leads, everything else lags .....

ATG, Greece Athens General Share index

ATG, Greece Athens General Share index (weekly chart)

1) Clear ex support = current key resistance level

2) Purple arrows scenario ? Forget it

3) Blue arrow scenario ? Highly probable .....

(CSMONITOR.COM) reports ;

Many wealthy, high-earning Greeks are not reporting their income.

“Some of the most aggressive tax evaders, experts say, are the self-employed, a huge pool of people in this country of small businesses"

It’s estimated that 20 to 30 percent of Greek GDP is underground, and “the government may be losing as much as $30 billion a year to tax evasion

Willing to catch a falling knife ?

Save them today, you'll end up having to save them again later .....

SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), get ready for a major move

SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD) chart analysis ;
Key trigger (see chart) confirms the recent fake spike up
1) Will we face another spike up and reversal (double top) ?
2) Current pattern suggest we break out much higher .....
3) Focus on that stop loss level
Gut feeling ? Expect some huge volatility (upwards)

Orange juice weekly chart

I do not often write about OJ unless I see a major long term move ;
The next key resistance (if broken) could lead to a major move

Best Buy Co., Inc. (BBY)

Best Buy Co., Inc. (BBY) chart analysis ;
Double bottom with higher lows
Break out (key signal broken)
Focus on target and stop loss @$31

USD index

$USD Dollar hourly chart, ex resistance, current key support

Market opinion

Chart above is the SP 500 index (daily chart)
We keep on getting good news, bad news, fake moves ..... etc ....
Today's price action confirms the higher lows (focus on that stop loss if you are going
long today).
Target is probably its 50 days exp MA
I am mostly focusing on the Shanghai index these days ....
See that purple arrow on the SP 500 ? I expect that scenario as "highly probable" if the Shanghai index does not get above 2700 soon ..... Soon, meaning within 10 to 14 days ....

iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV)

iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) chart analysis and trading plan ;
1) Higher lows quite clear
2) If you did buy, focus on that stop loss
3) Pay attention to the first re entry level (its 50 days exp MA)

CHFUSD, Forex, daily and hourly chart

The hourly chart on the CHFUSD shows the clear support and re entry level

Apple Inc. (AAPL) chart analysis

Apple Inc. (AAPL) weekly chart analysis ;
Basically focus on those key levels
Green arrows = Key supports
Red arrows = Resistance
Blue arrow = Probable scenario
Gut feeling for Apple ;  Wide sideway pattern.
Learn to trade channel patterns ; Low PE + High cash flow = Buy on extreme oversold. 

Euro Dollar update

Euro Dollar hourly update ;
Good news about Greece was not enough to pop up the Euro
Clear resistance (ex key support)

Focus on crude oil

Light crude oil daily chart ;
Current support  (ex key resistance) is a "key" level right now
Note that Shanghai and India (Bombay) are also down

KOSPI, South Korea Seoul composite index

KOSPI, South Korea Seoul composite index
Clear fake move, resistance level
Key support is also quite clear
Pattern (while still bullish) suggests high probability of a wide channel pattern
No more clear trends for a while, get used to trading channels

BSE, India Bombay Sensex 30 index

BSE, India Bombay Sensex 30 index
Clear lower highs pattern intact (bearish)
Multiple support level (see all price action with those green arrows)
Will that "wide support hold" ? 

Shanghai Stock Exchange Comp update

Shanghai Stock Exchange Comp update
1) Notice that "initial break out level " ?
2) Next key support confirmed that "initial break out
3) Broken key support or another fake bearish move ?
4) Re entry (bullish) level is quite clear

Time to focus on BPZ Resources, Inc. (BPZ)

BPZ Resources, Inc. (BPZ) chart analysis ;
1) Price/Volume action means ; Pay attention to me !
2) Price spiked up and reversed (still very bullish candle)
3) Most probable next scenario = Blue arrows
4) Why ? (Read from Bloomberg) ;
BPZ Resources Inc. (BPZ) soared 17 percent, the most since March 2009, to $3.53. The oil and gas company with operations in Peru said its offshore Block Z-1 exploration has best estimates of 981 million barrels of prospective oil resources and 8.1 trillion cubic feet of gas resources.

Sugar, another fake move ?

Sugar daily prices ;
1) Another example of a fake move ?
2) Out (sell) level is clear
3) Higher lows levels are clear
4) Re entry is very clear

Visit Belgium

Citigroup Inc. (C), can you master fake moves ?

Citigroup Inc. (C) chart analysis ;
Can you master fake moves ?
A) In an uptrend, they tend to be part of a bigger move (up)
B) In a downtrend, they tend to be "manipulated" by the big boys
In a downtrend, people will try to sell on strength, right after an oversold condition.  (Greed wants to get out at a better price).
How do you avoid that ? (In a downtrend) Traders tend to sell right at a previous key support level.
That is why I insist on first seeing a higher low pattern (or an ABC pattern)
In an uptrend, people will buy on the dip (wait for a clear support to form), once again you can use the ABC pattern. If that support holds, wait for a clear break out above the high. Use that high as your stop.

Just tell them that Goldman lost your money, its a good excuse right now

Just tell them that Goldman lost your money, its a good excuse right now

US Dollar, was that another fake move ?

$USD Dollar index hourly, was that another fake move ?
Focus on that key support level, a break below will confirm that the recent move was "fake"

Euro Dollar update

Euro Dollar hourly chart update ;
Focus on that last key support (short hard right below)
Focus also on the initial reversal level as well, and the re entry
Gut feeling ? Heading lower

Winnebago Industries, Inc. (WGO), price volume action was clear

Winnebago Industries, Inc. (WGO), price volume action was pretty clear.
Still surprised to see that many traders do not focus on price/volume action
Latest move was a GVN condition, another clear bearish pattern

Research In Motion Limited (RIMM)

Research In Motion Limited (RIMM) ; On June the 5th, I published this chart, you can see the post here ; 
http://gicharts.blogspot.com/2011/06/research-in-motion-limited-rimm-case.html
I called it a "case study" on how a GVN condition works, and wrote ;
"This pattern is very reliable
So reliable that over 70% of the time, those patterns are followed by more GVN conditions."
RIMM is down over 12% in pre market !
Another GVN condition
GVN = Gap, Volume, News

iPath Dow Jones UBS Cotton Subindex Total Return ETN (BAL)

iPath Dow Jones UBS Cotton Subindex Total Return ETN (BAL)
1) Clear fake move
2) Clear broken support

Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM)

Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) chart analysis ;
1) Reliable support ?
2) Clear parabolic rise, no wonder we got this big pull back
3) Focus on that re entry level