Watch the bond market on monday

10 Year note, weekly chart ;

1) Clear resistance level

2) That level did face "multiple fake moves"

iPath SP 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXX)

iPath SP 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXX) chart analysis ;

1) Notice that the volume did rise !

2) Another fake move ? (see previous failed entries above the 50 days exp MA).

3) Focus on those entry triggers ?

Gut feeling ; I don't smell a crash coming, just another channel pattern until probably Oct.

The Fed will probably be allowed to print, print , print ......

Allowed to create hyperinflation (might as well copy Brazil who did it, and wiped out their debt).

They'll tell you ; The Dollar is your problem, not ours :)

Currency war is coming

Then no one will buy US debt, right ??? No way, markets forget and forgive defaults as usual, just look at Brazil, Argentina, Russia, etc ......

Winners ? Gold, Silver, farm lands, (don't forget the cows), old stamps, art, etc ......

Great art work in Knokke, Belgium

Not very sunny these days in Belgium :)

But it gives you the time to visit some great art galleries

Forex, AUDUSD, hourly and daily

Forex, $AUDUSD

Daily ; clear up the stairs pattern (break out, channel, break out)

Domino's Pizza, Inc. (DPZ)

Domino's Pizza, Inc. (DPZ) ;

1) Pay attention to that GVN condition "right on earnings" been released.

2) See that candle reversal ?

3) Blue arrow = highly probable scenario

4) Buy the rumor, SELL the news .....

The numbers look good, so why not wait and buy at a better price on the dip ?

Morgan Stanley (MS), be patient

Morgan Stanley (MS) chart analysis ;

1) Basic trading system = Bullish (5 & 50 exp MA)

2) Clear GVN condition (Gap, Volume, News)

3) Trigger = Break out above this level is "very bullish"

Gut feeling ; Allow price to "rest", after a GVN condition, price tends to enter a sideway pattern, then, on eventual "better or confirmed good news", price will break out.

If, yes, if you decide to "anticipate" (and be a buyer now), use $22.5 as your stop.

Apple Inc. (AAPL) is way overbought

Apple Inc. (AAPL) is way way overbought

Blue arrows = Highly probable scenario

Will re test that gap level, then enter a sideway pattern

Could we re test that earlier key resistance ? I doubt it .....

LT still very bullish

Research In Motion Limited (RIMM), the end ?

Research In Motion Limited (RIMM) ;

Another very bearish move for RIMM (see all older posts)

Always pay attention to those GVN conditions (Gap, Volume, News)

Last gap had a huge volume action ..... often sends a clear message, GET OUT !

RIMM is now facing its last key support level before a drop to probably $10

What is Gold trying to tell us vis a vis the Dollar index ?

Chart on top is the Dollar index (weekly), compared to the Gold hourly chart.

Current break out in Gold seems reliable (compared to earlier fake moves).

Moment of truth for the Dollar index .....

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD), the art of understanding a high probability trade

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) ;

I often refer to two important patterns, ABC and GVN. The ABC is mostly a trigger to buy/short at a specific level, the GVN is actually the key to spotting "high probability trades".

1) GVN (Gap, Volume, and key News). Information imbalance causes a gap, and if you add a huge volume and high impact news event, you have a clear "future" probable move.

2) When these events happen, I stop looking at the "old part of the chart", and focus on the new event, starting with the current candle.

3) Allow price to rest

4) Do not chase it, be patient

5) Most investors will decide to enter at various levels (see those numbers on the chart), where will you enter ? Do you know ? Is your mind "prepared" for an entry level or are you just a trigger happy person using pure emotions ???

6) You now have a highly probable bullish move coming in the next 3 to 6 months ; Focus on your emotions to control "where you will enter"

iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV)

iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) ; Focus on the spot Silver price

1) Raise stop loss level

2) Current break out another fake move ? (See earlier fake moves)

3) Gut feeling ? We zoom higher, FAST

CHFUSD, Forex, hourly chart

CHFUSD, Forex, hourly chart ;

Clear break out, third attempt, does not look like a "fake move" this time

Time to buy Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)

Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) ;

1) Basic trading system shows a clear "buy signal"

2) What bothers me ? No gap up and no volume

3) Buying a small position, will "pyramid up" if price rises higher

Euro Dollar probable scenario ?

Euro Dollar hourly and daily chart ;

Current pattern suggests that a break out above 1.4500 will send the Euro back up to 1.5000.

Bearish reversal is right below 1.4200

10 Year US treasury note

10 Year US treasury note, hourly chart

1) Watch the initial first big move

2) Price finds support at "key" recent support level

3) Resistance level is clear (with multiple fake moves)

Sugar long term chart

Sugar long term chart ;

1) Clear long term higher lows pattern (with wild swings, but still clear message).

2) Resistance is clear, if we break above it, expect a huge parabolic rise, and a global sugar crisis.

Bank of America Corporation (BAC) trading plan

Bank of America Corporation (BAC) trading plan ;

1) A few days ago I posted the "first trigger" ; We are now above it (Buying one position).

2) Next trigger is the recent support, now our next resistance

3) Pay attention to that "key trigger" , confirms the 50 days exp MA level

4) Blue arrow = Probable scenario

Rough rice long term chart break out

Rough rice long term chart break out

This morning in Brussels

National holiday today, busy taking some pictures, hope I'll see the King (I doubt it).

Real mess driving in Brussels today since you have several EU leaders here to discuss the Greek issue.

Great quote from Ernest Hemingway

"The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency ; The second is war.

Both bring temporary prosperity ; both bring a permanent ruin.

Both are the refuge of political and economic opportunists

Silver hourly chart update

Silver hourly chart update ;

1) Overbought level is clear

2) Right on an "important" support level

3) Pull back was "expected", price did zoom up too fast

4) Focus also on that bearish reversal level

Gut feeling ; Bullish, wait for a spike down to buy on the dip

Apple Inc. (AAPL), good news priced in ?

Apple Inc. (AAPL) weekly chart analysis ;

1) If you have been reading this blog for a while, you know that I have been bullish on Apple for years, even calling the number $400 target years ago.

2) So why am I expecting this blue arrow scenario ? Price spikes up, then reverses.

3) Price anticipates. Now wonder they always say buy the rumor, sell the news.

4) Do not get me wrong, still bullish on Apple (Got my Ipad, Iphone, Imac, and even an Ipod).

Gut feeling ; Let the fools push the price up, then the smart money will start to short. Allow some time (few weeks) , then we shall buy on the dip

Photos taken in Macao, China

For some "funny" reasons, I think we need to start praying :)

Our leaders are fu.....ing up the system .... and they get away with it

We really need the "invisible hand right now" :)

Light crude oil bullish reversal ?

Light crude oil bullish reversal ?

Looks like it, focus on that stop loss level

CHFUSD, Forex, hourly chart

CHFUSD, Forex, hourly chart

Clear double fake moves right above key resistance level

Back to re-test prior key resistance ?

All trading systems are very BULLISH on the Swiss Fr

Public bench in Knokke, Belgium

Knokke le Zoute (also called Knokke Heist), Belgian coast.

Knokke is famous for its long sandy beaches and seaside promenade lined with cafés and restaurants. The area known as Het Zoute (Le Zoute in French) includes the exclusive Royal Zoute Golf Club, located in the dunes, and an impressive collection of summer villas and mansions.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Knokke-Heist

Linkedin Corporation (LNKD) , get ready to short

Linkedin Corporation (LNKD) chart analysis ;

Getting ready to short it

1) Do NOT anticipate ! Wait for price/volume action first

2) Hoping to first see a GVN condition (Gap, Volume, and News)

SP 500 5 mins chart update

SP 500 5 mins chart update

1) "Last support seems to hold"

2) Focus on those key re entry levels

3) Pyramid up (buy the break outs above those triggers)

Bank of America Corporation (BAC)

Bank of America Corporation (BAC)

1) Are we oversold ? Candle pattern (today's) seems like a spike down and reversal ?

2) Focus on that re entry level (wait for a price break out above it)

Citigroup Inc. (C) re entry level

Citigroup Inc. (C) re entry level

1) Focus on that "last key support level"

2) Re entry level is clear, will buy if price breaks above it

3) Main question right now, are we oversold ?

Silver hourly chart update

Silver hourly chart update

1) Clear new break out

2) Focus on that "key stop loss level"

Watch Gold and the Dollar index this week

Chart 1 is the Dollar index (hourly) with a clear ABC pattern ("B", the key support level is now confirmed).

Chart 2, Gold hourly, after a clean break out, Gold is in a perfect "up the stairs pattern", with clear higher lows (focus on that stop loss level)

10 Year US treasury note yield

10 Year US treasury note yield versus the SP 500 index

1) Focus on that key support level

2) ABC pattern ? Or was "A" just a fake move" ??

We shall soon find out

Ford Motor Company (F) trading plan

Ford Motor Company (F) trading plan ;

1) Recent pattern (higher lows + break out) shows the importance of the "current support".

2) Re entry (bullish trigger) is quite clear (right above the red arrow).

SP 500 chart updated

SP 500 hourly chart,

Focus on that re entry level (and the multiple fake moves around it)

Key support level is clear ..... so is the "last one"

Silver hourly chart update

Silver hourly chart update ;

1) Ex resistance is our current key support

2) Reversal level is clear $39

3) Higher lows pattern intact

Gut feeling ; Price zoomed up too fast, allow a rest into a sideway pattern, then wait for another break out above 39 to add positions

Copper bullish divergence

Copper weekly prices

Notice the bullish divergence ?

Copper (one of the key leading indicators, with crude oil and Shanghai), did a clear LT break out, re tested key support, and is again heading higher .....

Moody's warns the US

SP 500 weekly chart ;

1) Unlikely event the US would default on any of its interest payments.

2) Likely change its outlook on the AAA rating to "negative" from "stable" (no credible debt-reduction deal).

3) Keep that chart in mind if congress does not act soon

Glencore fools

This cartoon was done on May 19 !

http://tooons.blogspot.com/2011/05/glencore-ipo-cartoon.html

"Perfect timing for our IPO, just before a last move up, followed by a crash"
Glencore, China, Commodities, all the right key words you need to fool people

Currency du jour, the Swiss Franc

$CHFUSD, Swiss versus the Dollar

Another key break out .....

BSE SENSEX India Bombay 30 Index

BSE SENSEX India Bombay 30 Index weekly chart analysis ;

1) Focus on those 2 re entry levels

2) Blue arrow scenario = Very low probability

Shanghai SSE Composite Index

Shanghai SSE Composite Index chart analysis

Chart is not "up to date", see current position @ 2795

Probable ABC pattern

Safe re entry (bullish trigger) is right above "C" ; 2820

Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)

Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) weekly chart analysis ;

1) Is that light green arrow a "reliable support level" ?

2) Forget the blue arrow scenario ......

3) The damage is "deep", hope for a "long channel" (sideway pattern), then eventually a break out in a few months

iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) trading plan

iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) trading plan

1) Have a plan, draw probable scenario based on current chart pattern

2) Focus on key re entry levels (exact price break out levels)

3) Key triggers = Price/volume break out, news event