CHFUSD daily chart

CHFUSD, Swiss Fr versus the $USD Dollar ;

Typical pull back after a clear parabolic rise

Key support was found @ 1.2200 levels

The story (fundamental reason why the CHF should rise) is intact

Next key resistance stands @ 1.2600 and then @ 1.2800

Not expecting a sudden rise up, the Swiss CB will try to "save their currency", they will "fail again".

Expect an up the stair pattern (with clear higher lows) for the next 2 months

Guess who is back ? Natural Gas

Natural Gas, 5 mins chart

And Copper keeps on rising

Copper keeps on rising :)

(hourly chart)

Eastman Kodak Company (EK)

Eastman Kodak Company (EK) chart analysis ;

Pay attention to that recent price/volume action

LT story ? EK is still in a HUGE bearish trend

Recent news ?

EK is seeking to generate cash from its intellectual property, has signed confidentiality agreements with numerous potential buyers of patents it put up for sale last months

So what ?

Expect a rise up to that key resistance level, followed by another pull back

Nokia Corporation (NOK) trading plan

Nokia Corporation (NOK) trading plan ;

See those important GVN conditions (Gap, Volume, News) ? They caused real damage.

Is Nokia back ? I doubt it ....

Recent price/volume suggests we did find some sort of a bottom ......

Gut feeling ? Expect a blue arrow scenario.

Purple scenario ? No way !

Get ready to pay more for coffee

Weekly prices for coffee, expecting another break out soon

Watch Starbucks Corp. (SBUX) raise prices

iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) trading plan

iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) trading plan ;

1) Weekly chart

2) Print (copy) and keep this chart of Silver

3) Blue arrow = scenario I expect

4) Purple arrows = warning signals that bullish scenario might not be right

5) Key price/volume actions shows importance of that huge support @ big light green arrow ; but, a "weekly" close below that level will confirm the end of the uptrend.

Gut feeling ? Major LT uptrend is intact ! But as usual, expect the unexpected.

Deere and Company (DE)

Deere and Company (DE) ;

Clear higher lows

Buy trigger activated (broken)

Focus on that stop loss

Why Deere ?

Deere & Company, together with its subsidiaries (John Deere) operates in three business segments: agriculture and turf, construction and forestry and credit. The agriculture and turf segment manufactures and distributes a line of farm and turf equipment and related service parts including large, medium and utility tractors; loaders; combines, cotton and sugarcane harvesters and related front-end equipment and sugarcane loaders; tillage, seeding and application equipment. The construction and forestry segment manufactures, distributes to dealers and sells at retail a range of machines and service parts used in construction, earthmoving, material handling and timber harvesting.

Pfizer Inc. (PFE), gap du jour ?

Pfizer Inc. (PFE) ;

1) Price/volume action confirmed bottom (value buyers at work)

2) Focus on current stop loss

3) Blue arrow = highly probable scenario

Attention foreign holders of US Dollars

PowerShares

SPDR Gold Trust ETF

(GLD) versus

the

DB US Dollar Index Bullish

(UUP) ;

One single fact ; the pull back in Gold DID NOT cause a rise in the $USD Dollar index !!!!

So, if UUP goes below 20, you should "reconsider" holding $USD based assets .....

(ie : If you are based in the Euro zone, focus on holding Euro assets)

Major break out in rough rice

Major break out in rough rice (weekly prices)

Now you know why I focus on farming :)

Soon heading again to Morocco ;

Olives, olive oil, cows, palm trees (dates), and soon barbary fig oil

Brazilian Bovespa Stock index

Brazilian Bovespa Stock index ;

Was that recent price action a major fake move ?

Note that it is clearly "finding support" vis à vis the initial trigger

Purple arrow = Low probability scenario

BRICs are now cheap !!!! PE ratios vis à vis the SP 500

I "favor" energy/commodities BRICs (Brazil and Russia)

10 Year US treasury note hourly chart

10 Year US treasury note hourly chart ;

Clear "fake move"

Clear resistance level

Focus on that "warning level"

Bearish reversal stands right below 128 (see a daily chart for that)

Bonds are way overbought, but still in an uptrend

Euro Dollar hourly update

Euro Dollar hourly update ;

Break out is for real ? (Note all those earlier fake moves)

Use the red arrow as your stop

SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)

SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD) ;

1) Volume action shows importance of key support (now our stop loss)

2) Black arrow scenario ? Low probability

3) Purple arrow ? Low to medium ; Experience teaches me that after a big sell off, price does does not quickly gets back above its highest high

4) Blue arrow ? Gut feeling ; that is what you should expect (consider Gold into an "up the stairs" pattern)

PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund (DBA)

PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund (DBA) weekly chart analysis ;

1) When you often see "fake moves" above/below a certain price level, you know that you are facing a key support/resistance level

2) Focus on that blue arrow scenario, expecting another break out in about two months.

PS : Soon heading to Morocco again, will also focus on Palm trees (with dates)

Key bullish entry levels

Wells Fargo & Company (WFC) ; right above 25.4 (above June's support)
Citigroup Inc. (C) ; right above 31.85
General Electric Company (GE) ; right above 16.45
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Indx ETF (EEM) ; above 41.6
Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) ; above 74.95
iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index ETF (FXI) ; right above 37.8
Alcoa Inc. (AA) ; right above 12.5

If you are more into a buy and hold mode (using mainly ETFs), focus on Energy and Financials, like XLE & XLF

Bank of America Corp (BAC) trading plan

Bank of America Corp (BAC) trading plan

Focusing on that light green arrow (key support), will we close that gap ? (GVN condition caused by Buffet, Gap, Volume & key News)

Scenario remains the same (see blue arrow)

LT investor ? Buy and go away (for a few years)

Apple Inc. (AAPL) probable scenario

Apple Inc. (AAPL) chart analysis ;

1) See recent charts posted on Apple, initial scenario seems to take place

2) You first had your typical buy the rumor (before the good earnings where released), sell the news, then comes your typical profit taking, sending Apple back down to retest that key resistance level that is now a key support.

3) I am NOT expecting a sudden price rise above 400, Apple tends to enter into sideway patterns before breaking out

These probable scenarios are my basic trading plans ; I also call them my "decision making models"

Simple to understand models using real facts ; price, past volume action, key news events, fundamentals

Visual ; using images (charts) is crucial for your mind to fully understand your plan.

These decision making models help you focus on what is important ; A typical example is when Steve Jobs resigned, so many blogs, forums, TVs, medias, questioned the future of Apple.

If you had to read all their BS comments, you would be stuck not knowing what to do with so much infos (good or bad)

CHFUSD, Forex, get ready for a huge move

CHFUSD, Forex, hourly chart

Long tight channel = Huge break out

Gut feeling ? Up

Pura Vida

Latest painting (Pura Vida) inspired by "Costa Rica"

You can also see my photography/painting gallery here

http://moiselevi.blogspot.com/

With the latest pictures from Greece :)

Gold hourly and daily

The good news ? We now have a clear key support level

Euro Dollar update

Once again, heading towards that "key resistance" level

Many "fake moves" have taken place right above it ....

Remember, the tighter the channel, the stronger the break out

And you still have all bunch of fools speaking about the end of the Euro, the break up of the Euro zone .... blahblahblah ....

Gut feeling ? Break out soon (bullish)

Copper bullish divergence, we are soon heading higher

Copper prices (weekly on top, hourly on the bottom)

Several "fake moves" seen in hourly chart ; once again, another break out !

Weekly ; right on key LT support level

Copper is a "leading indicator" ; as far as the chart is concerned, it says forget a global slow down, we are heading higher, soon, very soon

Buy China and blue chips (such as XOM, AA, GE)

PowerShares DB Gold Double Short ETN (DZZ)

PowerShares DB Gold Double Short ETN (DZZ), chart du jour !!

1) Focus on the price/volume action

2) Gold was clearly overbought (parabolic rise), but do not jump to conclusions yet on DZZ, stay away from it, just observe ....

3) What scenario will make me turn bullish on DZZ ? A pull back, followed by higher lows on HUGE volume increase

Forex, CHFUSD, Swiss Fr

Forex, CHFUSD, Swiss Fr versus $USD

1) Hourly on top, daily on the bottom

2) Daily chart shows a clear parabolic rise, as usual, ending in a heavy pull back

3) Main up trend is "intact", but stuck in a tight channel, tight channel = heavy break out!

4) Now focus on the hourly chart ; 1.2800, and 1.3000, if the Swiss Fr does not get back above those levels within the next 4 to 6 days, expect a pull back to 1.2000

Ford Motor Company (F) trading plan

Ford Motor Company (F) trading plan

1) Re entry trigger = Buy

2) Wait for CLEAR higher lows "above" the light green arrow first

3) Ford's earnings have really improved, gut feeling ? Pure value play

Bank of America Corp (BAC)

Bank of America Corp (BAC) chart analysis ;

1) Is that an "almost double bottom" ? Price/volume action seems to confirm

2) Will now pyramid up (my positions) as price rises above its recent resistances (see small red arrows)

3) The main resistance of course is that clear down trending red arrow (large arrow)

4) Blue arrow scenario : Highly probable if we start to see some clear higher lows on various gaps up

iShares Barclays 20 Yr Treas Bond ETF (TLT)

iShares Barclays 20 Yr Treas Bond ETF (TLT) ;

Fact 1) Bonds are in an uptrend

Fact 2) Overbought ? Highly probable ....

Fact 3) Huge pull back ? Medium to high probability

Focusing on those two key levels for going long on the SP 500

Silver hourly chart update

Silver hourly chart update

Clear resistance level

Clear support @ ex resistance level ; 40

Warning ! Early Aug (see daily chart) we did see a fake move right above 40, just keep that in mind !

Otherwise, Silver looks bullish

Apple Inc. (AAPL)

Apple Inc. (AAPL) chart update ;

That scenario is about what I expected (see previous chart post of Apple).

Apple's earnings (and cash) made buying Apple @ $355-360 a "value play".

Volume action (see chart) also confirms the support level

I do not expect a fast rise in price, but rather a slow sideway pattern (long) above current levels ; so just imagine an up the stairs pattern.

As usual, always expect the unexpected ; stop stands @ $355

Back to basic blogging

SP 500 chart updated ;

1) Clear short term higher lows

2) Clear key bullish trigger

3) My main focus is on oversold financials (small positions, but will add more as we form higher lows) (for ETFs, will buy more on spike down)

"Back to basic blogging" ;

Blogging in the "early days was fun", you only focused on your posts, and comments.

Then came all those tools pretending to "help you out" (ie: Twitter and others).

You then quickly understand that they are marketing tricks, luring you into a modern day slavery (They OWN your content).

At first it was the rush to be on all search engines (what a waste of time)

Feedburner ? Google now knows that you love to read financial blogs !

Google ads ? No more on this blog, sick of seeing so many scams.

SP 500 chart update, what you need to know

SP 500 chart, what you need to know ;

1) Weekly chart (focus on the long term picture)

2) LT picture STILL looks fine ; typical retracement after such a long rise

3) Focus on that key support and probable scenario (purple arrow).

4) Focus on the Yields of several blue chips !

5) Think like a VALUE investor !

Gut feeling ; I am focusing on a typical candle spike down and reversal

Putting money to work in several financials, and ETFs (small positions)

Will add more money if price sink more

SP 500 re entry levels

SP 500 re entry levels

(5 min chart)

Again, focus on BONDS

10 Year Treasury Note ; Clear LT break out with no resistance ahead or a major fake move ??

Direxion Daily Finan. Bull 3X Shs ETF (FAS)

Direxion Daily Finan. Bull 3X Shs ETF (FAS) ;

You often hear about a parabolic rise, you are now facing a probable parabolic fall.

How can one spot them ?

1) See that long spike down ?

2) See that huge volume increase ?

3) Is that a buy signal ? No

4) Allow price to form several higher lows, then enter a tight price channel

5) Ignore scenario if price goes below $13

Gut feeling ? Focus on that red arrow ; it could be our key trigger in several weeks

Alcoa Inc. (AA)

Alcoa Inc. (AA) trading plan ;

1) Notice that I often post only "blue chips stocks" ; experience teaches me to invest in "proven business models".

2) Those "proven business models" will be affected by economic cycles, commodities, global growth etc .... but ! If the business model is good, pay attention to long term charts and key fundamentals.

3) Clear long term higher lows ; not a buy signal yet !

4) At that price, you can call it a value play, not a bargain, or extreme bargain yet.

5) PEG ratio = 0.28 !

6) Revenue = 23B versus a Market Cap of 13B !

7) Trailing PE @14, a little high ..... so wait for a spike down :)

Gut feeling ? Its a typical buy and go away stock ; wonder why the Chinese are not buying it (maybe Congress will not allow it)

Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM), best value play

Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) ;

1) My trading rule number #1 ; think like a value investor !

2) PE : 9.6 , forward PE : 8.1

3) PS : 0.9

4) Market cap : 357B, Revenue : 392B

5) ROE : 25%

See those price levels on the chart ?

Love those extreme bargain levels (hope to buy at those levels)

ipath SP 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXX)

ipath SP 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXX) chart analysis ;

1) A chart is often worth a thousand words (or more)

2) Clear resistance level that did face a "fake move" in mid March

3) Notice the HUGE volume ???

4) Moment of truth on the way ? Break out or another fake move ?

Nokia Corporation (NOK)

Nokia Corporation (NOK) chart analysis ;

1) What got my attention was the GVN condition (Gap, Volume, and News)

2) Was the News event strong enough to justify a buy ? NO !

3) Buy trigger is clear (right above that red arrow)

4) Gut feeling ? Expecting a black arrow scenario (Nokia is not ready)

Will you buy ? Think of risk management, use only 0.5% of your portfolio ; meaning ? Focus on clear winners ....

Will Nokia be able to "turn around" ? who knows ....

SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)

SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD) chart analysis ;

1) If you have been reading me for a while, you know how I "hate" to see a clear parabolic rise.

2) If GLD does NOT break out above that red arrow, expect the purple arrow scenario, and /or a sideway pattern between the light green and red arrow (could last over 2 weeks).

3) If we do break out to new highs (black arrow), it will be a very clear parabolic rise ; warning, they always end up crashing ....

Gut feeling ; If you HAVE to buy Gold, wait for a clear strong pull back, do NOT chase it.

Back from Rhodos

Great weather, great food, very very nice people ....

And, great business opportunities in Rhodos, Greece (Real Estate)

Stayed at the Amathus Beach hotel, Rhodes

http://amathus-hotels.com/rhodes/

Ask for Coralie de Cuyper, she will give you a great rate for "Elite Suites" with private pools.

Coralie is from Belgium :)

SP 500, print out this scenario

Focus on those key levels (red and light green arrows), then focus on that blue arrow scenario I have in mind.

Key trigger to go long ? See the previous post on bonds

TOP VALUE !!! Financials !!!!!

In 3 to 5 years from now you'll hate yourself for not buying at such discount !!!

Same goes for big oil players like XOM, a REAL bargain !!!!

Focus on bonds

Focus on bonds (10 Year US Treasury Note)

Trigger levels are clear, now focus on the REVERSAL trigger in order to go long in the SP 500.

Apple Inc. (AAPL)

Apple Inc. (AAPL) chart analysis ;

As mentioned a few weeks ago, that scenario "sell on the great news, was expected"

Blue arrows show the next highly probable scenario

Long, wide sideway pattern

MT, and LT, all patterns look very bullish

Gold

Greetings from sunny Rhodos, Greece.
Funny how no one mentions Gold being overbought.
It needs to rally fast above 1775, or face a huge pull back.
Ok, now back to the beach :)

Latest paintings before heading to Greece

Latest paintings before heading to Greece on vacation :)

1) On top, called "She pokes people on Facebook"

2) "Si tu madre lo supiera" (if you mother only knew)

Back around the 18th, no worries, when I paint the market tends to do quite well :)

Buy & Hold will soon be back, focus on quality.

I'll focus on drinking Ouzo :)