Apple Inc. (AAPL) and its LT moving average

Apple Inc. (AAPL) and its LT Exp moving average (50 weeks)

Pure chartists only believe in perfect trends, perfect support/resistance ....etc

I doubt anything is "perfect" (charts and/or other things)

Stocks, indexes, tend to have a particular moving average that acts as its "magnet".

Apple tends to "flirt" with its 50 weeks EMA

See above my "expected scenario"

1) Price channel until the EMA flirts again with Apple

2) Price then jumps up again (confirming the importance of the EMA as a reliable support)

Last beer in Figueres

Beer, cigar, then towards Morocco ......

Voilà, hoped you enjoyed those pictures :)

Figueres, Spain

Figueres, Spain (Dali museum)

French navy seals

Was not really allowed to take these photos, oh well, with a huge lens ......

Photo of a french port, heading to Spain

French port, near the Spanish border (on the way to Morocco)

Vive la France ?

Typical scene in the south of France

Photo of a french port, heading to Perpignan

Photo taken on the road to Perpignan

Photos during the trip

Airport photo (using Sepia) looks likes a sunset :)

Bank of America Corp (BAC) trading plan

Bank of America Corp (BAC) trading plan ;

Current pattern suggest two scenario (I favor the blue arrow), but the purple arrow could take place as a typical fake move.

Bottom line ? Very bullish no matter what

SP 500, wide channel to tight channel

Wide channel (that we are facing right now) are typical when an index/stock is in a "bottom process".

Expecting now a "tighter channel", followed by a break out

Heading back to Morocco and other places

Heading back to Morocco and other "sunny places", so no blogging until I get back.

Will be busy with my olives and my cows :)

Gold's next probable pattern

See that large circle in blue ? Expect this kind of pattern for Gold

Typical "up the stairs pattern" (long term Gold's real pattern)

Parabolic moves tend to occur when Gold does break out hard on bad news events.

Eventually it quiets down and comes back to its original long term pattern (up the stairs).

PS : Expect Silver to act the same way with just "bigger moves" due to its huge volatility

Adding more shares of the German Dax index

German Dax weekly chart ;

Like I said ; Buy Germany and go away !

See those price levels in purple ? Hope to be able to buy at these price

US Dollar moment of truth

US Dollar moment of truth ;

(Weekly chart) current pattern suggest we are heading higher (bullish reversal on key support level).

Out of Silver, Gold, global markets and into the $USD as a safe heaven ???

Not convinced, probably the mother of all fake moves ....

SP 500 probable scenario

SP 500 probable scenario ;

1) Expecting a "volatile" October ; so get used to wild swings :)

2) Expect more "fake moves around 1200"

3) Higher lows pattern will probably stay intact

Greece, Argentina, Russia

Total Greek public debt is about 370 billion euros, or $500 billion. By comparison, Argentina’s debt was $82 billion when it defaulted in 2001; when Russia defaulted, in 1998, its debt was $79 billion.

Source : nytimes.com

Light crude oil

Light crude oil, weekly chart ;

Pay attention to that support level (light green arrow) ($85)

Focus also on that long term broken trend ;

Broken, yes, due to that clear parabolic rise (early March zooming up)

Not expecting a sudden price rise, but rather a wide channel pattern (around the $85 levels), followed by a rise after Nov, heading towards $90 in Feb 2012

Sudden break down below $72.5 possible ? I really doubt it

iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) versus the US Dollar

iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) versus the US Dollar ;

Key levels to focus on the $USD (S@76, R@78)

Silver ; S@37, R@41

Uptrend in SLV still intact

Was the April's peak in Silver the bullish trigger for the $USD reversal ?

Too early to tell .....

A SLV close below 37 will cause severe damage in the current pattern

Research In Motion Limited (RIMM), the end ?

Research In Motion Limited (RIMM), the end ?

Been mentioning RIMM a lot on this blog (see past posts on the blog search)

The GVN condition can be DEADLY when you see it many times.

Investors are basically getting out .....

I could talk about constant support break down, but just watching a GVN condition with "Huge headlines", and a huge volume increase is a clear message.

A break below 22 will probably cause another huge GVN ....

Probable scenario ? The stock goes into a wide price channel until the next BAD news ; then ?

As they say in Yiddish ; "Oyveh" .....

Apple Inc. (AAPL) is our new leading indicator ?

Apple Inc. (AAPL) is our new leading indicator ?

Global slow down or not, people keep on buying Apple products ....

Guess what will happen when the "economy picks up" ?

They will remind you "how cheap Apple was at $400 .....

PS : Actually very bullish on the global economy, expecting a major rally around Nov

Ford Motor Company (F) trading plan

Ford Motor Company (F) trading plan ;

1) Support & resistance levels are quite clear

2) Price stuck in a tight channel with low volume

3) Tight channels = hard break outs on higher volume !

4) Blue arrows = expected scenario

Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) trading plan

Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) trading plan ;

1) Weekly chart, focus on those "key level" where price did find a reliable support.

2) Did you buy ? Focus on that stop loss @$70

3) Blue arrow = expected scenario (besides the fact that you are facing a pure value play).

Bank of America Corp (BAC) trading plan

Bank of America Corp (BAC) trading plan ;

1) Pay attention to that important GVN condition (Gap, Volume, News).

2) That kind of pattern tends to be part of a "bigger" move"

3) Then you have a clear ABC pattern ; quick reminder of that pattern ; Price zooms up on good news, gaps up on huge volume, finds "A" , then pull back hard looking for key support "B".

To confirm a real buy signal, price must now get above "A", we thus call this level "C".

(Simple pattern with one problem ; you need to be patient !!!!!)

It took me over 10 years to learn how to be patient ......

4) See that "B" level ? Its also a higher lows, and YES, you can use it as your stop (if you are NOT patient), and go long

Mexican Bolsa IPC stock index

Mexican Bolsa IPC stock index weekly chart analysis ;

1) You can find this chart on stockcharts.com ($MXX)

2) You can buy the index on the NYSE (EWW)

3) After this clear LT broken trend (blue arrow), the index is stuck in a wide channel.

4) MT indicators show a clear lower highs pattern (bearish)

5) See that trigger level ? We need to close the week above it in order to remain "within that wide channel"

Micron Technology, Inc. (MU)

Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) chart analysis ;

Double triggers activated

Use $6.75 as your stop

Are you addicted to the markets ?

Let's face it, you probably are .....

I use to be, until I fully understood the concept of just "doing nothing", just watching three or four charts per day (max 30 min).

We all probably started trading the same way ; lots of books, and every time discovering the "ultimate" indicator !

That's a head and shoulder !!! Mmmm, maybe not ..... !!!

How many times have you been fooled by fake moves ???

Then came the internet, infos got cheaper, but you started to see too many of them !

How many web sites/blogs to you HAVE to read every day ?

How many charts do you have to follow ?

Want to become LESS addicted ?

1) Focus (three or five charts, max)

2) Find a hobby

3) Just read the HEADLINES (not the content), let your mind figure out what's important to keep.

4) Do not tell close friends that you are trading (they might be more addicted than you).

Addictions tends to RUIN people ....

Citigroup Inc. (C)

Citigroup Inc. (C) chart analysis ;

1) Wide channel pattern

2) Two clear trigger levels (one for shorting, one for re entry)

Gut feeling ? I see the blue arrows as highly probable

iShares Barclays 20 Yr Treas Bond ETF (TLT)

iShares Barclays 20 Yr Treas Bond ETF (TLT) weekly chart ;

1) Clear parabolic rise (see what happens to past events)

2) Focus on that trigger level (blue arrow)

Bullish reversal in the Euro ?

Euro Dollar hourly chart ;

Do I see higher lows ?

We need to first get above that trigger (first red arrow)

Again, buy Germany and go away

As mentioned in an early post, been buying the German Dax index, again !

Hoping to see a spike down ..... I doubt we will re visit the 09 lows .....

Pure fundamental play

With a lower Euro, exports will boom again

Scenario intact in the SP 500

Been posting that kind of scenario several times in the SP 500

Basically you should expect the following ;

1) Wild swings (large ones)

2) Then heading towards a "tight" channel

3) The break out "above" that tight channel will take us above 1200

Can my scenario be wrong ?

Sure ; I'll change my mind if the SP 500 goes below 1100 at the end of Sept

US 30 Year Bond

30 Year Bond (US)

Use last week's low as a warning reversal (bearish) trigger

Moody's May Downgrade Top French Banks, priced in or not ?

$CAC, CAC 40, France index ; Moddy's may downgrade key french banks, priced in or not ?

Valoarte in Costa Rica

Art expo called "Valoarte" in Costa Rica

You can see my childhood's friend work called "Big Foot" (by Idan Zareski)

Focus on the Vix next week

Vix (volatility index) weekly chart ;

Level is way way way overbought

Level in 2008 reflects an abnormal very rare event, we are NOT facing the same condition.

Blue arrows = Highly probable scenario

The best ETF for light crude oil ? Russia

Market Vector Russia ETF Trust (RSX) versus the $WTIC, perfect match ?

Probably the best way to trade light crude oil if you are looking for an ETF

Re entry for the RSX ; right above $34

Pork, inflation and the Chinese economy

Pork shortage hurting Chinese economy
Latimes reports ; Pork is the fuel that powers the populace. So a shortage isn't just affecting dumplings and stir fry, the staple's 60% price jump is fueling inflation and squeezing household budgets.
Read the full story on the Latimes

Source : www.latimes.com

PS : If you are in the pork business, head to China :)

Financial bloggers

You probably notice the list of financial bloggers I follow.

I do NOT have to agree with their views to follow them, but I enjoy reading bloggers who make a point, and that enjoy "sharing their knowledge".

I do not follow bloggers that just copy/paste articles .....

If you do follow quality financial bloggers, let me know, I'll read them, and add them to my list.

Finally, good news for Europe

Euro broke its key support vs the $USD

This time it was "not a fake move"

Next support level is clear

Expecting to see the ECB print, print, print, get us out of this mess, allow us to finally export at a better rate.

Global tourists ; time to re-visit again Paris, Lisbon, Madrid, Athens .... etc ....

Will I soon be able to tell you ; "The Euro is your problem, not ours ?"

Busy reading this morning

Europe steers into a zone of uncertainty

Gaddafi sold $1B worth of Gold, but how much did he take with him ?

Assad of Syria declares "state of war"

US accuses Venezuela officials of drug ties ?

SP 500 probable scenario

SP 500 probable scenario ;

1) We do have some sort of higher lows (within a tight pattern)

2) 1200 level seem to be our next "key trigger"

3) Month of Oct ? Usually not that good for markets

4) Nov, expecting huge volume increase

5) Dec, well above the 1200 levels

Dollar index, still facing heavy resistance

Dollar index, still facing heavy resistance ;

Probably overbought since Aug 29 lows

Dollar index fake move ?

Dollar index (daily and hourly chart)

Hourly chart shows a "break out", but the daily shows a clear resistance level (seen many fake moves at those levels)

Currency du jour ? CHF (Swiss)

The SNB will try to lower the CHF ...... again

They will fail ...... again ....

As far as the Dollar goes ..... Bonds, Gold, and the Dollar higher together ???

You know one will snap .....

Silver sell trigger activated ?

Silver hourly chart ;

Silver trigger activated ?

Focus on warning level, and stop loss levels

Gut feeling ; still LT bullish but get ready to change your mind if price goes below 39 !

Gold sell trigger ?

Gold hourly chart ;

Sell trigger activated ?

Pay attention to that warning level and that key stop loss

Buy Germany and go away

German DAX index weekly chart ;

See that "key support level" ?

Will be injecting 10% of the portfolio this week

Price spiking down below that key support ? Will inject 20% of the portfolio

09's lows ? (I doubt we get there), will be 100% invested

Then ? Will go away and take care of my olives in Morocco :)

I do NOT see a better investment than Germany

Euro Dollar on key support level

Euro Dollar on key support level

Gold and LT US treasury Bond, perfect correlation ?

Gold vs the 30 Year US treasury bond ;

1) The two new safe heavens ?

2) If bonds are way "overbought", Gold is as well ?

3) Bearish reversal trigger for bonds stands below 139

4) Short trigger for bonds is right below 136

Rough rice in an inverted head and shoulder ?

Mentioned rough rice earlier ; we now have a full blown weekly break out

1) Neckline stands at 16

2) Left shoulder (2009) slightly below 12

3) Right shoulder (usually higher than LF), mid 2011 @ around 13

4) Heading back to 26 ? Too early to tell, but that kind of move usually ends up in nasty events (political)

Expecting problems from well known suppliers ? (Thailand, Vietnam)

Weather related ?

Don't fight the fed

Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF) highly probable scenario ;

Focus on the next price/volume/gap action to come soon

Don't fight the FED !!!

Lots of cash coming into the markets ..... again !

SP 500 chart updated

SP 500 chart update ;

Pull back, wild moves .... etc .... all part of a typical bottom pattern

As long as we remain in higher lows, scenario is intact

Focus on volume pattern

Soybean oil huge break out ?

Soybean oil daily and weekly chart ; Get ready for a huge break out.

(Rough rice has the same pattern)

Another reason why you should focus on agricultural products :)

Apple Inc. (AAPL) probable scenario

Apple Inc. (AAPL) probable scenario ;

1) Forget the "purple scenario", fundamentals are way to strong for Apple

2) Blue scenario ? Can you imagine the size of its market cap ? Unless of course we see a huge increase in revenue ???

3) Red scenario ? Highly probable

4) One more fact (about value)

Hewlett-Packard Company (HPQ), PE ratio stands @ 6

Research In Motion Limited (RIMM), PE ratio stands @ 5

Should Apple worry ? No, its ROE is huge

Samsung, LG, Nokia ???? Expecting mergers in order to "try" to compete with Apple.