SP 500 chart updated

SP 500 chart analysis, trading plan ;

1) Name of the game is clear ; buy on the dip

2) Blue arrows = highly probable scenario

3) Probable ABC pattern (A stands right above 1290, B is our clear support level, C is right above A)

PS : Will be on vacation for the next 10 days

Heading to the "holy land" (Israel), will bring back milk and honey :)

Fashion shooting for Griiin.com

Had fun taking photos of this pro model for the brand www.griiin.com

Citigroup Inc. (C) trading plan

Citigroup Inc. (C) trading plan ;

1) Clean break out

2) Clean stop loss level

30 year bond, quick reminder for Bill Gross

30 year US bond, focus on the first target

ipath SP 500 VIX Short Term Futures ETN (VXX)

ipath SP 500 VIX Short Term Futures ETN (VXX) ;

Perfect break down, (after a clear head and shoulder neckline break down)

What's missing ? VOLUME !!!!

Still lots of bears out there

10 Year US treasury note yield

10 Year US treasury note yield ;

Confirmed bullish break out !

Head & Shoulder pattern :)

Bull market is back

Been saying it again and again, the bull market is back.

Very bullish on financials (you know the usual suspects ; C, BAC, FAS, etc ....)

Bond market ? Crash !!! (Bill Gross is wrong ..... again)

Oil and most commodities ? Zooming higher

(ie : Copper up 6% today)

Orange juice weekly chart

Not to SCARE anyone, but this kind of chart is quite clear ;

The next move above that key resistance level will send OJ prices zooming up into a parabolic rise ....

Will Nokia Corporation (NOK) fool us again ?

Will Nokia Corporation (NOK) fool us again ?

Pure chartist may be thinking, oh wow, ready for a break out !

Forget it .... Stay out ....

Expecting a fake move

Could I change my mind ? Sure, if I see a major GVN condition (Gap, Volume and News)

SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD) trading plan

SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD) trading plan ;

1) Higher lows confirmed, now facing a KEY trigger

2) Keep your eyes on the blue arrow (bearish reversal level)

3) Gut feeling ? Expecting a "fake move"

Live cattle huge move

Live cattle chart analysis ;

1) Two quick facts ; When you see several multiple fake moves around a key resistance level, the message is clear ; Watch out during a major break out !

2) ABC pattern !!!! Price zooms up to "A", price pulls back to re test the prior resistance (now support), price goes back up above "A", giving us our key trigger ("C")

Now what ??? Invest in cows :)

Light crude oil bullish break out

Light crude oil chart update ;

Current pattern confirms bullish break out

PS : Just one more fact to confirm that the bull market is back !

Euro Dollar update

Euro Dollar update ;

1) Higher lows intact !

2) Focus on the long trigger level

3) Key reversal = Bearish trigger level

iPath SP 500 VIX Short Term Futures ETN (VXX)

iPath SP 500 VIX Short Term Futures ETN (VXX) , facing a perfect head and shoulder pattern, with clear neckline

Bull market is back ?

The bull market is back ? Expect some more "wild moves", but, yes, we are heading towards a bull market :)

Focus on these key entry levels (I call them buy triggers) ;

Citigroup Inc (C) @ 32.65

Bank Of America Corp (BAC) @ 7.65
General Electric (GE) @ 16.85
Wells Fargo (WFC) @ 27
Pfizer, Inc (PFE) , buy ! Use the 50 exp MA as your stop

Ford Motor Company (F) trading plan

Ford Motor Company (F) trading plan

1) Clean break out

2) Focus on stop loss level

3) Good fundamental news event (S&P raises Ford credit rating)

Cold but sunny day in Brussels

Brussels, Belgium (Les étangs d'Ixelles)

Bond crash imminent ? 10 year note yield ready for a major move ?

10 Year US Treasury Note Yield ;

Focus on the blue arrow scenario ; highly probable

Bill Gross, get ready to change your mind :)

Research In Motion Limited (RIMM), the end ?

Research In Motion Limited (RIMM), the end ?

Focus on these multiple GVN conditions (Gap, Volume News)

Are we facing another one ?

Last green arrow = Last support level

If RIMM breaks that last support ..... Mayday, mayday .....

Apple Inc. (AAPL) trading plan

Apple Inc. (AAPL) trading plan ;

Was in Lyon (France) yesterday giving a 4 hours seminars just on "break outs" and the GVN condition (Gap, Volume, News).

If you have to master one pattern, focus on the GVN conditions, then use proper stop loss, and voilà ! You are now a pro ! (Oh, bye the way, impossible to teach you how to master your emotions).

Back to Apple, just in front of the Train station, there is a huge mall, with an Apple store FULL of people ; you know me :) Mr inspector :) Asking the seller how the Iphone 4S is doing ; his answer was clear ; Wow !

See that blue arrow scenario on the chart with the $ signs ? Focus on them.

Watch now the media pretend that Apple is over since Steve Jobs is gone .....

Expecting a GREAT christmas for Apple

Hope for a big dip, and go shopping !!!

Wells Fargo and Company (WFC)

Wells Fargo and Company (WFC) ;

1) Get used to these "fake moves" ; Focus on buying the dips (oversold), and sell into resistance.

2) Blue arrows = Highly probable scenario

Tel Aviv 100 index and the Gilad Shalit effect ?

Tel Aviv 100 index and the Gilad Shalit effect ?

1) Clear recent higher lows

2) Index was way oversold

3) Not expecting price to zoom up fast to retest that key resistance level (its 200 days exp MA).

4) Expect a consolidation, and a long sideway pattern until the end of the year

US Dollar index analysis

US Dollar index ;

Do NOT look for perfect levels, it never is

Forget what pure chartist may tell you, nothing is perfect

We are facing a clear support level (ex resistance)

I see the purple arrows as the most probable scenario

SP 500 chart updated

SP 500 chart update ;

1) We did rise too fast (from Oct lows)

2) Resistance level was quite CLEAR

3) As I mentioned in the past ; expect "wild moves", until the pattern becomes tighter, then watch the bullish break out

PS : Yes, am very bullish !

Buy America and go away (focus on big caps, well known brands such as XOM and GE).

SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD) trading plan

SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD) trading plan ;

Key support level is quite clear (so is the resistance)

Blue or Purple arrows scenario ?

1) Watch the $USD index

2) Focus on those key levels

PS : Don't start with those head and shoulder patterns that do not exist yet (ie : You see a left shoulder, the spike up is your head, and now you are waiting for a right shoulder)

Bill Gross will be wrong again

30 Year US Bond (weekly prices)

Mr Gross is now betting that rates will fall (sending the 30 Y Bond over 145) and higher.

He was wrong a while ago betting that rates will rise, causing a higher inflation, and the value of treasuries to fall.

I see two highly probable scenarios ;

1) A sudden bond crash

2) A possible spike up, small parabolic rise, followed by a huge bond crash

Either ways, expecting a major bond crash

Los indignados in Brussels

Los indignados in Brussels

Los indignados in Brussels

Los indignados in Brussels :)

Are all the bad news about Greece priced in ?

Weekly chart of the $ATG , Athens General Share.

Quick reminder of my number #1 rule ; Think like a value investor

Now lets look at the chart ;

1) Long down trend intact

2) No sign of a bottom

3) Fake moves in mid 2010 and early 2011

4) When last support @1400 was broken in April 2011, it zoomed down fast

Questions ?

Is another 50 % fall possible ?

Govt bond prices/yield suggests default is a "fact"

What will happen when the default is accepted ????

Russia and Argentina defaulted with less than 80B $ each .....

Greek debt is over 300 B Euros .....

Oh, people, get one fact clear ; Greece will NEVER be kicked out of the EU, Never.

Its like saying kick out California (do you know its debt size ? You should).

I am actually quite bullish on Greece

Ok, my grand mother was born and raised on the island of Rhodos :)

No, really ; This financial crisis will change Greece forever

EU laws will be stricter, they will be enforced.

PIIGS countries will behave eventually like Germany :)

I will remind you of this post in 10 years ; Greece was the obvious place to invest !

Rice, Thailand, and the head and shoulder pattern

Rice weekly prices ;

1) Clear head and shoulder pattern

2) Clear neckline

3) Clear break out, pull back, and ready for the next huge break out

4) Main reason ? Thailand floods

On July 21, I wrote about the break out on this post ;

http://gicharts.blogspot.com/2011/07/rough-rice-long-term-chart-break-out.html

Rising rice prices = Global unrest ?

10 Year US treasury note

10 Year US treasury note chart analysis ;

Focus on that "circle" (see chart)

Price near key trigger level (support & trend)

A break below = bond crash

What do you focus on ?

Another photographer/trader analysis : )

I knew the steps I had to take to shoot (photo) that duck (Shutter, and high ISO).

I could have focused on other surrounding things (other ducks, the boats, the houses around ... etc).

No, I wanted to focus on that duck and wait, wait, and wait for him to move .....

I was focusing ....

Like in trading ; do not wake up every day trying to figure out who was the most active stock, the stock "du jour" ..... etc .....

Focus !

Then shoot :)

Zen means being free of the distractions, so have a system

Zen means being free of the distractions ??

Yes, if you have been reading this blog for a while, you'll notice I use only a few "basic things".

This basic system up there (with the SP 500) is your basic 5,50,&200 exp MA crossover.

Here is the direct link ;

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&id=p13498463502

Save the link in your favorites.

This basic tool often just gives me the "picture without the noise effect".

Each exp MA can be used as a support/resistance level

1240 (the 200 exp MA) remains our HUGE trigger to go bullish

Baltic Dry Index says buy and go away

Baltic Dry Index ;

Clear higher lows

Clear ABC pattern

Clear break out

Is the $BDI our leading indicator ..... again ?

US Dollar index analysis

$USD Dollar weekly index analysis ;

1) LT lower highs pattern is intact (bearish)

2) Recent higher lows, price breaking out, just a normal retracement (from oversold).

3) Blue arrow scenario ? No way ....

4) Purple arrow ; Gut feeling says highly probable

5) Black arrow scenario ? High probability ; watch Gold & Silver for confirmation

Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM), perfect entry ?

Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) chart analysis ;

1) Resistance level was quite clear

2) Higher lows (see light green arrows) was quite clear

3) Entry trigger ; blue arrow

4) Stop loss ? Your blue arrow

PS : Been mentioning for a while that XOM was undervalued ! (You do not need charts for that, a quick look at its fundamentals and you would have noticed that it was a real bargain.)

SP 500 chart updated

Clear reliable support ? Probably.

As mentioned a few weeks ago ; "expect wild moves" (large swings) until we start to form higher lows, tighter channel patterns, and eventually the HUGE break out.

I am bullish ; call this intuition, gut feeling, etc .....

But as usual, I always expect the unexpected ....

Like I said a few weeks/months ago, buy Germany and go away :)

Apple Inc. (AAPL) , chart versus gut feeling

Apple Inc. (AAPL) chart analysis ;

1) Weekly chart using a simple moving average (50)

2) Current pattern confirms that the uptrend is "intact"

3) A long uptrend needs a "consolidation", before heading higher ....

4) Gut feeling ? Expecting a long sideway pattern, before moving higher

PS : Expect "wild swings"

PS2 : Price may revisit warning level 1 and 2, then bounce up

Why traders are like photographers

In photography, they say that your 1001 photo will start to show that you are "improving".

I went broke over 10 times as a trader before improving .....

Want to know everything about photography ? Thousand of web sites, blogs, books, forums.

You can say the same about trading.

I should come out with a book (empty content) with the title "Paper trade 1000 stocks" before testing the markets ; you then can fill the empty pages with notes, comments, etc.

Photography has simple rules in order to shoot a basic photo (ISO, Aperture, Shutter).

So why do experienced photographer go nuts when they see a sudden event in front of them, forget their rules, and shoot in autofocus ?

Traders, with years of experience, will go nuts on a single stock if the "story" is amazing (forgetting the basic entry levels, stop loss, etc)

Good photos can be made when you take the time to compose ; meaning ? You plan the light, the object, the scene, etc ....

Good traders take the time to follow specific stocks, (or ETFs), plan the entry, focus, and wait like a sniper.

Great photos often are the work of snipers willing to wait .....

1) Find the target

2) Plan the trade (or photo)

3) Think like a sniper

Autumn leaves photography

Read here on Science Made simple why autumn leaves change colors

Photo taken around Brussels

Citigroup Inc. (C) trading plan

Citigroup Inc. (C) trading plan ;

1) First thing I notice is that price/volume action (see chart) that "could" confirm the importance of that support level

2) Entry level is clear, wait for a break out "above" that red arrow

GVN conditions on my watch list

The following stocks have a typical GVN (Gap, Volume, News) that incites me to add them to my watch list ;

Corning Inc (NYSE: GLW)

Target Corp (NYSE: TGT)
Monsanto Co (NYSE: MON)

Ford Motor Company (F) trading plan

Ford Motor Company (F) trading plan ;

If you did buy, use $10 as your key stop loss

Blue arrows = Highly probable scenario

Red thick arrow = Key resistance

We now really need a GVN condition ; Gap, Volume and NEWS

SP 500 on a key reliable support level ?

SP 500 weekly chart ;

One look at this chart shows a clear "reliable support level"

Funny photo of a troll in Amsterdam

Troll in Amsterdam

Using a basic 50mm lens (F/1.8)

iShares Barclays 20 Yr Treas Bond ETF (TLT)

iShares Barclays 20 Yr Treas Bond ETF (TLT) chart analysis ;

Bond market is way way way overbought .....

Clear parabolic rise

Blue arrow = Probable scenario

Barrick Gold Corporation (USA)

Barrick Gold Corporation (USA) weekly chart ;

Key support level still holding

Price stuck in a "wide channel" pattern

Focus on Gold and the $USD index

Gut feeling ; Oversold

Pictures from Amsterdam

Was in Amsterdam yesterday :)

Apple Inc. (AAPL) probable scenario

Apple Inc. (AAPL) probable scenario ;

Spike (huge spike), bullish reversal, volume (huge volume) suggests blue arrow highly probable scenario

Germany Dax index

Hoping to see a spike down at those levels in order to increase my positions

Euro Dollar, are you a channel pattern trader ?

It looks like a mess, but in fact, if you pay attention to the "bigger picture", you can see a clear tendency to form long channel with multiple fake moves around key levels (support/resistance).

Current price level another fake move ? Is the Euro way oversold ?

Gut feeling ?

1) We are way oversold

2) Price will get back above 1.3500 and stay again in a long channel

3) I don't see a sudden fall towards 1.3000 (at least not yet)

Bring back the Ninja ?

Was playing around with my this Ninja (My boys allowed me to use it as a model)

Picture was taken in my garden ..... looks like a jungle out there :)

Who will be our Ninja warrior ? Who will bring us out of this financial mess ?

Funny how we seem to have leaders with no guts (or Cojones)