Alpha Global Investors

Orange juice weekly chart

2012-01-23T07:49:00.002+01:00

On Oct 26, 2011 I posted the following regarding orange juice ;

http://gicharts.blogspot.com/2011/10/orange-juice-weekly-chart.html

This chart above is a "weekly" chart ...

Expect a major parabolic rise ...

Mayday, mayday, bond crash !

2012-01-23T07:38:00.003+01:00

You know me by now, I kind of repeat myself over an over (for the past 2 months ....)

Bonds will crash ...

Do I need to post it again in a few weeks ?

See those light green arrows ? Last chances to get out !

Go long equities (China, Germany, US, France .... etc ...)

Buy and hold

Do what I do right now, focus on a real business, and forget the markets

VelocityShares Daily 2x VIX Sho (TVIX)

2012-01-22T17:51:00.003+01:00

VelocityShares Daily 2x VIX Sho (TVIX)

Key support level is "quite clear"

Price/Volume action : Pay attention to it

Red arrow = Key trigger reversal level !

Euro Dollar trading plan

2012-01-22T17:35:00.002+01:00

Euro Dollar trading plan (using a weekly chart)

1) Purple arrow scenario = We are way oversold, EU zone manages to get its act together, PIIGS are able to show signs of growth .... yeah, right ...

2) Black arrows scenario = Still not oversold, and a lower Euro is needed to boost exports and increase tourism in the PIIGS countries ....

It seems quite simple to use these kind of simple arguments ....

Try this exercise; What in your mind would trigger a purple or a black arrow scenario ?

Yes, charts have their limits ....

We now need a major "event" to trigger a break out (up or down)

Gut feelings ? EU zone is weak, with weak leaders ....

PIIGS zone is VERY weak with no growth at all !

The ECB is way "too political" and not able to decided on their own ....

I was hoping for parity in order to save the PIIGS countries ....

But then again .... "Expect the unexpected" is probably deal right now :)

SP 500 chart update

2012-01-17T14:13:00.002+01:00

SP 500 daily chart update ;

1) Higher lows pattern = Intact (bullish)

2) Breaking resistance levels

3) Last key resistance level ? Then what ? BULL !!!!

SP 500 chart update

2012-01-13T08:16:00.002+01:00

SP 500 chart update (weekly)

Key levels are NOT always perfect, yet they are quite reliable.

Some of you may be thinking ; "Oh, I see a possible head and shoulder pattern", so if we do see a break down now, it would confirm the "right shoulder" ....

Forget it !

Expect a long sideway pattern, leading to a huge break out above the red arrow in about 3 to 4 months from now.

ishares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) , huge spike up on the way ?

2012-01-05T07:49:00.002+01:00

ishares Silver Trust ETF (SLV), weekly chart ;

1) Plan your trade (based on current facts, key support, world events, etc ....)

2) Draw on the chart what you expect (price/volume increase, volume break out, resistance broken, target .... etc ....

3) Blue arrows = my probable scenario

SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD) trading plan

2012-01-02T10:01:00.002+01:00

SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD) trading plan

1) Weekly chart

2) $160 = Clean break out buy trigger

3) Gold heading below the light blue uptrend ? Very low probability right now

4) Iran, Iran, Iran ....

5) Can the $USD and Gold rise at the same time ? Yes .... so as usual, expect the unexpected.

2012, focus on Iran and crude oil

2012-01-01T19:49:00.002+01:00

Focus on Iran and crude oil prices ;

Red arrow = Key resistance

ABC pattern almost activated

Blue arrows (thick) = Probable war with Iran

Below purple arrow = Global slow down (I doubt it)

Focus on defense stocks

War = Higher demand for $USD ???? We shall soon find out

When volume is the key trigger

2011-12-29T17:07:00.001+01:00

Focusing on VXX, volume break out is our key trigger

Blue arrows = expected scenario

Euro Dollar probable scenario ?

2011-12-24T09:00:00.002+01:00

Traders willing to pay a high premium (options) "highly speculative shorts"

Focus on long/short trigger

Key month trigger is March

Gut feeling ; Way oversold

SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)

2011-12-21T08:59:00.003+01:00

SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD) ; focus on the facts

1) Red arrows (old resistance level) is now our main support level (green arrows)

2) Last key support is clear

3) Re entry is clear

4) Is the uptrend over ? Hard to tell since we could be facing a long sideway pattern before heading higher again.

5) Watch the $USD Dollar .....

Will a Euro crash save the Euro zone ?

2011-12-15T07:27:00.002+01:00

On May 21, 2011, I published the chart you see above, with the link right here ;

http://gicharts.blogspot.com/2011/05/euro-crash-will-save-spain-portugal.html

Let me be clear ; that does not mean that the $USD is a "better currency" !

A Euro crash is needed to save countries that really depend on global tourism.

A crash is also needed to boost exports

In late Nov 2010, the Euro did find a key support @ these current levels (1.2992)

Euro bounced up, and retested the 1.2992 levels again in mid Jan 2011.

If the Euro stays below that key level for the next 2 weeks, expect a sudden crash.

PS : As usual, expect the unexpected, and get ready to change your mind fast !

Buy China and go away

2011-12-14T07:57:00.002+01:00

Shanghai SSEC weekly index ;

Focus on that large blue circle on the left of the chart

Current break down .... I call this a "fake move"

Like I said, expect a BULL market

Your mind is focusing on "fear" right now ; wake up and understand that you are facing global deep values !!!

iPath SP 500 VIX Short Term Futures ETN (VXX)

2011-12-12T06:47:00.002+01:00

iPath SP 500 VIX Short Term Futures ETN (VXX) ;

1) Focus on the "last key support level"

2) Main trigger = VOLUME !!!!! Expect a volume break out

Where the big money is going

2011-12-12T06:39:00.003+01:00

No need to be a chart expert to notice that the chart patterns of the following stocks are telling you to "add" those stocks to your portfolio.

BA, CSCO, HD, PFE, MO, MRK, XOM, IBM, INTC, MCD, KFT .....

Big money tends to "always" focus on key players after a major down trend.

Since you and I are the little fish, let's follow the "whales" :))))

Just an other day in Belgium

2011-12-11T12:30:00.001+01:00

Just an other day in Belgium (photography)

SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), can you predict the next pattern ?

2011-12-11T12:21:00.003+01:00

SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD) ;

1) Can you predict the next pattern ?

2) Based on the current "facts" (global economy, financial crisis, currency war), we shall expect the following scenario (see the blue arrows)

3) Can this scenario change ? I doubt it, unless some invisible hand makes a miracle ...

4) Stocks or Gold ? Both , focus on high quality stocks with decent dividends.

AMR Corporation (AMR), do not touch it

2011-12-08T07:31:00.003+01:00

AMR Corporation (AMR) ;

Using pure chart techniques to enter AMR ?

No way .... focus on news, fundamentals first !!!

Let others "gamble" the reversal

Wait a few months for an eventual channel, then an eventual break out

Do not guess .....

Sunny day in Brussels

2011-12-06T18:59:00.001+01:00

Sunny day in Brussels (grande place)

Wide angle 14mm

Market Vector Russia ETF Trust (RSX), can Russia blow up ?

2011-12-06T15:19:00.002+01:00

Market Vector Russia ETF Trust (RSX) ; Can Russia blow up ?

1) The Russian web is going nuts again Putin

2) Is that a weekly head and shoulder pattern ?

3) See that neckline (last key support), if broken, SELL, SELL, SELL

NetSuite Inc. (N)

2011-12-05T21:48:00.002+01:00

NetSuite Inc. (N) ;

Clear messages, break out above key resistance level

Break out done with a GVN condition ; Gap, Volume and News !

Just another day in Belgium, photography

2011-12-05T08:38:00.001+01:00

Belgium, photography

Natural Gas chart analysis

2011-12-03T12:51:00.003+01:00

Natural gas daily chart analysis ;

Did we just bounce up from an oversold condition ?

Main trend still bearish

Key support, consider it as your main stop loss if you did buy

Focus on that key long entry level (red arrow), very bullish above

DryShips Inc. (DRYS)

2011-12-03T12:42:00.002+01:00

DryShips Inc. (DRYS) ;

1) Clear down trend with lower highs

2) Light green arrows = Possible bottom pattern

3) Key triggers (blue arrows) ; buy a single position above first trigger, then add more above second

Warning, huge bull market ahead

2011-12-02T08:21:00.002+01:00

ipath SP 500 VIX Short Term Futures ETN (VXX) ;

1) Perfect ABC pattern ?

2) "C" level is quite clear, a break below "A" will send the SP 500 zooming up

3) Another scenario possible ? Yes, a longer channel pattern, but the result will be the same, a break below "A"

Once again, focus on large blue chips

US Dollar index analysis

2011-12-02T07:41:00.002+01:00

US Dollar index weekly analysis ;

1) Lower highs pattern is intact

2) Break out levels (from an oversold condition) shows the "Euro crisis"

3) Key level ; 80 , if level is not broken (within the next 10 days), expect a major pull back, sending the $ back into its long term trend (bearish)

PS : Watch the media now shift to "California"

Direxion Daily Finan. Bull 3X Shs ETF (FAS)

2011-12-01T07:35:00.002+01:00

Direxion Daily Finan. Bull 3X Shs ETF (FAS) ;

1) Pay attention to the light green arrows and their levels (reliable bottom)

2) Price/volume patterns does confirm

3) Focus on the stop loss

4) Resistance level is quite clear, but do not expect a fast break out above it, rather, a longer channel until at least Feb

Bond crash imminent ?

2011-11-27T08:33:00.000+01:00

Get ready for a bond crash

Focus on large cap blue chips

10 Year US treasury note yield

2011-11-27T08:26:00.001+01:00

10 Year US treasury note yield chart analysis ;

Perfect ABC pattern ?

Get ready for a bond crash, last chance to get rid of them

Alcoa Inc. (AA), think like a value investor

2011-11-23T19:39:00.002+01:00

Alcoa Inc. (AA) chart analysis ;

Yes, we can all see the obvious key support level ....

Time to think like a value investor !

PE : 9.41

Revenue : 24 B, Market Cap : 9.5B !!!!

Price to Sales : 0.40

Focus on key blue chips

SP 500 shopping levels

2011-11-21T20:42:00.002+01:00

The "majority of bad news are priced in"

Focus on this big light green arrows ; shopping levels for me

SP 500 chart updated

2011-11-19T09:09:00.002+01:00

SP 500 chart update ;

Make sure you fully understand what the "Bears" see ; Lower highs ! (see those purple arrows).

So why am I bullish ?

1) Pay attention to that "fake move" ; it went right below a key support, and zoomed up, quite fast.

2) The SP 500 then zoomed above those resistances (see red arrows), broke out, and started to pull back, re testing that previous key resistance level (see light green arrows)

Now, how to fully confuse your brain .......

1) Using MACD, RSI, etc .....

2) All those lagging indicators will just confuse your brain !

3) Price ! Yes, price is the only "leading indicator"

4) Please, first look at a clean chart, then if you decide to confuse yourself, add whatever you wish to it ..... :)))

5) Moving averages are ok, as long as your price is not within a channel pattern, then you are facing a useless tool ..... Use moving averages as your stop loss.

Regarding banks ; they are getting all the help from every govt in the world !!!!

Angola !!! Yes, Angola !!! (I was born and raised in the congo), full of oil will now bail out Portugal !!!! Now that is a true revolution :))))

Will soon be in Morocco to visit my olive oil and cows :))))

I convinced my local partners to think like Chinese ; bulk, tiny margins, break the rules, and mass market only :))))

Alcoa Inc. (AA) trading plan

2011-11-15T19:19:00.002+01:00

Alcoa Inc. (AA) trading plan ;

What leads me to this trading plan ? Simple facts ;

1) ABC pattern

2) Price zooming up to "A" so fast, pulling back near the "exact" break out level (current support level at "B")

3) Expected scenario ? See blue arrows

4) Key question ; Will "B" hold ? At this moment, we DO NOT know ; that is why we do have a trading plan !

5) Focus on the main key trigger @ "C"

Now just sit back and be patient :)))

PS : Focus on large blue chips

SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), is Gold facing an inverted ABC pattern ?

2011-11-15T11:02:00.002+01:00

SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), weekly chart

Is Gold facing an inverted ABC pattern ?

Our current resistance right now is "B"

The major pull back, headed down to "A"

Price came back up, facing "B" ; But "B" is still in a lower high !

Key short trigger stands @ "C" ; right below "A"

The facts first ;

1) Gold is still in a major uptrend

2) Could be overbought, and just heading into a long channel pattern before moving higher.

3) The US economy, and the $USD are still facing lots of problems .....

4) So why am I warning you ? You need a trading plan, always expect the unexpected.

Gut feeling ?

Heading soon towards the mother of all BULL markets that could last over 5 years !!!!!

Currency war will go on, but cash will move out of Gold, bonds, towards stocks.

Large caps, well known brands should be on your mind

PS : Very bullish on financials ; every country will save their banking system, and allow them to press the "reset button"

Am I clear enough towards financials ????

ishares Barclays 20 Yr Treas Bond ETF (TLT)

2011-11-14T17:41:00.003+01:00

ishares Barclays 20 Yr Treas Bond ETF (TLT) ;

Inverted ABC pattern

Price facing our key resistance @ "B"

Probable scenario = Light green arrow (bond crash/reversal)

Ignore scenario if "B" is broken on a break out !

Tel Aviv, Israel

2011-11-13T10:02:00.000+01:00

Tel Aviv, Israel

2011-11-13T09:58:00.000+01:00

Jerusalem, Israel

2011-11-13T09:53:00.000+01:00

Arab Quarter, Jerusalem, Israel

2011-11-13T09:50:00.001+01:00

The Western Wall, Jerusalem, Israel

2011-11-13T09:47:00.000+01:00

Copper chart analysis

2011-11-13T09:43:00.001+01:00

1) Higher lows (blue arrows), followed by a key break out, heading to "A"

2) Typical ABC pattern ; "C" is our key bullish trigger

3) Red arrow confirms "A" ; meaning ? Another break above A will send Copper zooming up

SP 500 chart updated

2011-11-13T09:36:00.002+01:00

SP 500 chart update

Back from Israel, yes, will soon be posting some pictures :)

Recent scenario published on the SP 500 seems to be taking place

Nice ABC pattern ; with "C" being our "key trigger"

I'll say it again, I am BULLISH !!!

SP 500 chart updated

2011-10-31T11:35:00.002+01:00

SP 500 chart analysis, trading plan ;

1) Name of the game is clear ; buy on the dip

2) Blue arrows = highly probable scenario

3) Probable ABC pattern (A stands right above 1290, B is our clear support level, C is right above A)

PS : Will be on vacation for the next 10 days

Heading to the "holy land" (Israel), will bring back milk and honey :)

Fashion shooting for Griiin.com

2011-10-31T07:52:00.002+01:00

Had fun taking photos of this pro model for the brand www.griiin.com

Citigroup Inc. (C) trading plan

2011-10-28T21:39:00.002+02:00

Citigroup Inc. (C) trading plan ;

1) Clean break out

2) Clean stop loss level

30 year bond, quick reminder for Bill Gross

2011-10-28T07:48:00.002+02:00

30 year US bond, focus on the first target

ipath SP 500 VIX Short Term Futures ETN (VXX)

2011-10-28T07:36:00.003+02:00

ipath SP 500 VIX Short Term Futures ETN (VXX) ;

Perfect break down, (after a clear head and shoulder neckline break down)

What's missing ? VOLUME !!!!

Still lots of bears out there

10 Year US treasury note yield

2011-10-28T07:29:00.001+02:00

10 Year US treasury note yield ;

Confirmed bullish break out !

Head & Shoulder pattern :)

Bull market is back

2011-10-27T20:06:00.003+02:00

Been saying it again and again, the bull market is back.

Very bullish on financials (you know the usual suspects ; C, BAC, FAS, etc ....)

Bond market ? Crash !!! (Bill Gross is wrong ..... again)

Oil and most commodities ? Zooming higher

(ie : Copper up 6% today)

Orange juice weekly chart

2011-10-26T19:06:00.002+02:00

Not to SCARE anyone, but this kind of chart is quite clear ;

The next move above that key resistance level will send OJ prices zooming up into a parabolic rise ....

Will Nokia Corporation (NOK) fool us again ?

2011-10-25T19:17:00.002+02:00

Will Nokia Corporation (NOK) fool us again ?

Pure chartist may be thinking, oh wow, ready for a break out !

Forget it .... Stay out ....

Expecting a fake move

Could I change my mind ? Sure, if I see a major GVN condition (Gap, Volume and News)

SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD) trading plan

2011-10-25T18:07:00.003+02:00

SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD) trading plan ;

1) Higher lows confirmed, now facing a KEY trigger

2) Keep your eyes on the blue arrow (bearish reversal level)

3) Gut feeling ? Expecting a "fake move"

Live cattle huge move

2011-10-25T14:21:00.003+02:00

Live cattle chart analysis ;

1) Two quick facts ; When you see several multiple fake moves around a key resistance level, the message is clear ; Watch out during a major break out !

2) ABC pattern !!!! Price zooms up to "A", price pulls back to re test the prior resistance (now support), price goes back up above "A", giving us our key trigger ("C")

Now what ??? Invest in cows :)

Light crude oil bullish break out

2011-10-25T12:54:00.003+02:00

Light crude oil chart update ;

Current pattern confirms bullish break out

PS : Just one more fact to confirm that the bull market is back !

Euro Dollar update

2011-10-22T20:04:00.001+02:00

Euro Dollar update ;

1) Higher lows intact !

2) Focus on the long trigger level

3) Key reversal = Bearish trigger level

iPath SP 500 VIX Short Term Futures ETN (VXX)

2011-10-22T08:32:00.001+02:00

iPath SP 500 VIX Short Term Futures ETN (VXX) , facing a perfect head and shoulder pattern, with clear neckline

Bull market is back ?

2011-10-22T08:22:00.002+02:00

The bull market is back ? Expect some more "wild moves", but, yes, we are heading towards a bull market :)

Focus on these key entry levels (I call them buy triggers) ;

Citigroup Inc (C) @ 32.65

Bank Of America Corp (BAC) @ 7.65
General Electric (GE) @ 16.85
Wells Fargo (WFC) @ 27
Pfizer, Inc (PFE) , buy ! Use the 50 exp MA as your stop

Ford Motor Company (F) trading plan

2011-10-21T20:29:00.003+02:00

Ford Motor Company (F) trading plan

1) Clean break out

2) Focus on stop loss level

3) Good fundamental news event (S&P raises Ford credit rating)

Cold but sunny day in Brussels

2011-10-21T18:55:00.001+02:00

Brussels, Belgium (Les étangs d'Ixelles)

Bond crash imminent ? 10 year note yield ready for a major move ?

2011-10-21T08:49:00.003+02:00

10 Year US Treasury Note Yield ;

Focus on the blue arrow scenario ; highly probable

Bill Gross, get ready to change your mind :)

Research In Motion Limited (RIMM), the end ?

2011-10-20T07:33:00.003+02:00

Research In Motion Limited (RIMM), the end ?

Focus on these multiple GVN conditions (Gap, Volume News)

Are we facing another one ?

Last green arrow = Last support level

If RIMM breaks that last support ..... Mayday, mayday .....

Apple Inc. (AAPL) trading plan

2011-10-20T06:25:00.002+02:00

Apple Inc. (AAPL) trading plan ;

Was in Lyon (France) yesterday giving a 4 hours seminars just on "break outs" and the GVN condition (Gap, Volume, News).

If you have to master one pattern, focus on the GVN conditions, then use proper stop loss, and voilà ! You are now a pro ! (Oh, bye the way, impossible to teach you how to master your emotions).

Back to Apple, just in front of the Train station, there is a huge mall, with an Apple store FULL of people ; you know me :) Mr inspector :) Asking the seller how the Iphone 4S is doing ; his answer was clear ; Wow !

See that blue arrow scenario on the chart with the $ signs ? Focus on them.

Watch now the media pretend that Apple is over since Steve Jobs is gone .....

Expecting a GREAT christmas for Apple

Hope for a big dip, and go shopping !!!

Wells Fargo and Company (WFC)

2011-10-18T11:38:00.003+02:00

Wells Fargo and Company (WFC) ;

1) Get used to these "fake moves" ; Focus on buying the dips (oversold), and sell into resistance.

2) Blue arrows = Highly probable scenario

Tel Aviv 100 index and the Gilad Shalit effect ?

2011-10-18T09:25:00.002+02:00

Tel Aviv 100 index and the Gilad Shalit effect ?

1) Clear recent higher lows

2) Index was way oversold

3) Not expecting price to zoom up fast to retest that key resistance level (its 200 days exp MA).

4) Expect a consolidation, and a long sideway pattern until the end of the year

US Dollar index analysis

2011-10-18T07:26:00.002+02:00

US Dollar index ;

Do NOT look for perfect levels, it never is

Forget what pure chartist may tell you, nothing is perfect

We are facing a clear support level (ex resistance)

I see the purple arrows as the most probable scenario

SP 500 chart updated

2011-10-18T07:20:00.002+02:00

SP 500 chart update ;

1) We did rise too fast (from Oct lows)

2) Resistance level was quite CLEAR

3) As I mentioned in the past ; expect "wild moves", until the pattern becomes tighter, then watch the bullish break out

PS : Yes, am very bullish !

Buy America and go away (focus on big caps, well known brands such as XOM and GE).

SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD) trading plan

2011-10-17T18:27:00.002+02:00

SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD) trading plan ;

Key support level is quite clear (so is the resistance)

Blue or Purple arrows scenario ?

1) Watch the $USD index

2) Focus on those key levels

PS : Don't start with those head and shoulder patterns that do not exist yet (ie : You see a left shoulder, the spike up is your head, and now you are waiting for a right shoulder)

Bill Gross will be wrong again

2011-10-16T11:12:00.002+02:00

30 Year US Bond (weekly prices)

Mr Gross is now betting that rates will fall (sending the 30 Y Bond over 145) and higher.

He was wrong a while ago betting that rates will rise, causing a higher inflation, and the value of treasuries to fall.

I see two highly probable scenarios ;

1) A sudden bond crash

2) A possible spike up, small parabolic rise, followed by a huge bond crash

Either ways, expecting a major bond crash

Los indignados in Brussels

2011-10-15T16:19:00.000+02:00

Los indignados in Brussels

2011-10-15T15:53:00.001+02:00

Los indignados in Brussels :)

Are all the bad news about Greece priced in ?

2011-10-15T07:20:00.002+02:00

Weekly chart of the $ATG , Athens General Share.

Quick reminder of my number #1 rule ; Think like a value investor

Now lets look at the chart ;

1) Long down trend intact

2) No sign of a bottom

3) Fake moves in mid 2010 and early 2011

4) When last support @1400 was broken in April 2011, it zoomed down fast

Questions ?

Is another 50 % fall possible ?

Govt bond prices/yield suggests default is a "fact"

What will happen when the default is accepted ????

Russia and Argentina defaulted with less than 80B $ each .....

Greek debt is over 300 B Euros .....

Oh, people, get one fact clear ; Greece will NEVER be kicked out of the EU, Never.

Its like saying kick out California (do you know its debt size ? You should).

I am actually quite bullish on Greece

Ok, my grand mother was born and raised on the island of Rhodos :)

No, really ; This financial crisis will change Greece forever

EU laws will be stricter, they will be enforced.

PIIGS countries will behave eventually like Germany :)

I will remind you of this post in 10 years ; Greece was the obvious place to invest !

Rice, Thailand, and the head and shoulder pattern

2011-10-14T11:25:00.002+02:00

Rice weekly prices ;

1) Clear head and shoulder pattern

2) Clear neckline

3) Clear break out, pull back, and ready for the next huge break out

4) Main reason ? Thailand floods

On July 21, I wrote about the break out on this post ;

http://gicharts.blogspot.com/2011/07/rough-rice-long-term-chart-break-out.html

Rising rice prices = Global unrest ?

10 Year US treasury note

2011-10-14T09:11:00.003+02:00

10 Year US treasury note chart analysis ;

Focus on that "circle" (see chart)

Price near key trigger level (support & trend)

A break below = bond crash

What do you focus on ?

2011-10-14T08:23:00.002+02:00

Another photographer/trader analysis : )

I knew the steps I had to take to shoot (photo) that duck (Shutter, and high ISO).

I could have focused on other surrounding things (other ducks, the boats, the houses around ... etc).

No, I wanted to focus on that duck and wait, wait, and wait for him to move .....

I was focusing ....

Like in trading ; do not wake up every day trying to figure out who was the most active stock, the stock "du jour" ..... etc .....

Focus !

Then shoot :)

Zen means being free of the distractions, so have a system

2011-10-14T08:11:00.002+02:00

Zen means being free of the distractions ??

Yes, if you have been reading this blog for a while, you'll notice I use only a few "basic things".

This basic system up there (with the SP 500) is your basic 5,50,&200 exp MA crossover.

Here is the direct link ;

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&id=p13498463502

Save the link in your favorites.

This basic tool often just gives me the "picture without the noise effect".

Each exp MA can be used as a support/resistance level

1240 (the 200 exp MA) remains our HUGE trigger to go bullish

Baltic Dry Index says buy and go away

2011-10-14T07:59:00.001+02:00

Baltic Dry Index ;

Clear higher lows

Clear ABC pattern

Clear break out

Is the $BDI our leading indicator ..... again ?

US Dollar index analysis

2011-10-13T09:35:00.002+02:00

$USD Dollar weekly index analysis ;

1) LT lower highs pattern is intact (bearish)

2) Recent higher lows, price breaking out, just a normal retracement (from oversold).

3) Blue arrow scenario ? No way ....

4) Purple arrow ; Gut feeling says highly probable

5) Black arrow scenario ? High probability ; watch Gold & Silver for confirmation

Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM), perfect entry ?

2011-10-13T08:49:00.002+02:00

Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) chart analysis ;

1) Resistance level was quite clear

2) Higher lows (see light green arrows) was quite clear

3) Entry trigger ; blue arrow

4) Stop loss ? Your blue arrow

PS : Been mentioning for a while that XOM was undervalued ! (You do not need charts for that, a quick look at its fundamentals and you would have noticed that it was a real bargain.)

SP 500 chart updated

2011-10-10T18:43:00.002+02:00

Clear reliable support ? Probably.

As mentioned a few weeks ago ; "expect wild moves" (large swings) until we start to form higher lows, tighter channel patterns, and eventually the HUGE break out.

I am bullish ; call this intuition, gut feeling, etc .....

But as usual, I always expect the unexpected ....

Like I said a few weeks/months ago, buy Germany and go away :)

Apple Inc. (AAPL) , chart versus gut feeling

2011-10-09T13:46:00.002+02:00

Apple Inc. (AAPL) chart analysis ;

1) Weekly chart using a simple moving average (50)

2) Current pattern confirms that the uptrend is "intact"

3) A long uptrend needs a "consolidation", before heading higher ....

4) Gut feeling ? Expecting a long sideway pattern, before moving higher

PS : Expect "wild swings"

PS2 : Price may revisit warning level 1 and 2, then bounce up

Why traders are like photographers

2011-10-08T12:44:00.002+02:00

In photography, they say that your 1001 photo will start to show that you are "improving".

I went broke over 10 times as a trader before improving .....

Want to know everything about photography ? Thousand of web sites, blogs, books, forums.

You can say the same about trading.

I should come out with a book (empty content) with the title "Paper trade 1000 stocks" before testing the markets ; you then can fill the empty pages with notes, comments, etc.

Photography has simple rules in order to shoot a basic photo (ISO, Aperture, Shutter).

So why do experienced photographer go nuts when they see a sudden event in front of them, forget their rules, and shoot in autofocus ?

Traders, with years of experience, will go nuts on a single stock if the "story" is amazing (forgetting the basic entry levels, stop loss, etc)

Good photos can be made when you take the time to compose ; meaning ? You plan the light, the object, the scene, etc ....

Good traders take the time to follow specific stocks, (or ETFs), plan the entry, focus, and wait like a sniper.

Great photos often are the work of snipers willing to wait .....

1) Find the target

2) Plan the trade (or photo)

3) Think like a sniper

Autumn leaves photography

2011-10-08T08:51:00.001+02:00

Read here on Science Made simple why autumn leaves change colors

Photo taken around Brussels

Citigroup Inc. (C) trading plan

2011-10-08T08:44:00.003+02:00

Citigroup Inc. (C) trading plan ;

1) First thing I notice is that price/volume action (see chart) that "could" confirm the importance of that support level

2) Entry level is clear, wait for a break out "above" that red arrow

GVN conditions on my watch list

2011-10-07T07:01:00.002+02:00

The following stocks have a typical GVN (Gap, Volume, News) that incites me to add them to my watch list ;

Corning Inc (NYSE: GLW)

Target Corp (NYSE: TGT)
Monsanto Co (NYSE: MON)

Ford Motor Company (F) trading plan

2011-10-07T06:45:00.003+02:00

Ford Motor Company (F) trading plan ;

If you did buy, use $10 as your key stop loss

Blue arrows = Highly probable scenario

Red thick arrow = Key resistance

We now really need a GVN condition ; Gap, Volume and NEWS

SP 500 on a key reliable support level ?

2011-10-06T21:26:00.002+02:00

SP 500 weekly chart ;

One look at this chart shows a clear "reliable support level"

Funny photo of a troll in Amsterdam

2011-10-06T20:42:00.000+02:00

Troll in Amsterdam

Using a basic 50mm lens (F/1.8)

iShares Barclays 20 Yr Treas Bond ETF (TLT)

2011-10-06T20:28:00.003+02:00

iShares Barclays 20 Yr Treas Bond ETF (TLT) chart analysis ;

Bond market is way way way overbought .....

Clear parabolic rise

Blue arrow = Probable scenario

Barrick Gold Corporation (USA)

2011-10-05T19:52:00.003+02:00

Barrick Gold Corporation (USA) weekly chart ;

Key support level still holding

Price stuck in a "wide channel" pattern

Focus on Gold and the $USD index

Gut feeling ; Oversold

Pictures from Amsterdam

2011-10-05T12:27:00.001+02:00

Was in Amsterdam yesterday :)

Apple Inc. (AAPL) probable scenario

2011-10-05T09:04:00.003+02:00

Apple Inc. (AAPL) probable scenario ;

Spike (huge spike), bullish reversal, volume (huge volume) suggests blue arrow highly probable scenario

Germany Dax index

2011-10-04T10:07:00.000+02:00

Hoping to see a spike down at those levels in order to increase my positions

Euro Dollar, are you a channel pattern trader ?

2011-10-03T07:53:00.002+02:00

It looks like a mess, but in fact, if you pay attention to the "bigger picture", you can see a clear tendency to form long channel with multiple fake moves around key levels (support/resistance).

Current price level another fake move ? Is the Euro way oversold ?

Gut feeling ?

1) We are way oversold

2) Price will get back above 1.3500 and stay again in a long channel

3) I don't see a sudden fall towards 1.3000 (at least not yet)

Bring back the Ninja ?

2011-10-02T10:31:00.002+02:00

Was playing around with my this Ninja (My boys allowed me to use it as a model)

Picture was taken in my garden ..... looks like a jungle out there :)

Who will be our Ninja warrior ? Who will bring us out of this financial mess ?

Funny how we seem to have leaders with no guts (or Cojones)

SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)

2011-10-01T08:49:00.003+02:00

SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), Gold spot weekly price analysis ;

Stick to the LT big picture

Uptrend intact, typical reversal when facing a parabolic move

ishares Silver Trust ETF (SLV)

2011-10-01T08:30:00.003+02:00

ishares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) ; perfect re entry stands @ $31

Prefer to use the $Silver chart for this analysis

Current pattern shows a typical lower highs "after a too steep uptrend (parabolic)".

LT picture has not changed for Silver (it just is more volatile than Gold)

Way way oversold, expecting a bullish reversal in the days to come

Apple Inc. (AAPL) and its LT moving average

2011-09-30T14:19:00.004+02:00

Apple Inc. (AAPL) and its LT Exp moving average (50 weeks)

Pure chartists only believe in perfect trends, perfect support/resistance ....etc

I doubt anything is "perfect" (charts and/or other things)

Stocks, indexes, tend to have a particular moving average that acts as its "magnet".

Apple tends to "flirt" with its 50 weeks EMA

See above my "expected scenario"

1) Price channel until the EMA flirts again with Apple

2) Price then jumps up again (confirming the importance of the EMA as a reliable support)

Last beer in Figueres

2011-09-30T13:57:00.001+02:00

Beer, cigar, then towards Morocco ......

Voilà, hoped you enjoyed those pictures :)

Figueres, Spain

2011-09-30T13:53:00.001+02:00

Figueres, Spain (Dali museum)