Sunday, March 1, 2015

United States Oil ETF (USO)

Oil ETF (USO), what does a bottom usually look like ?
I call this pattern a "nice" start, but thats not it ... yet ...
We now have a higher low, and a clear resistance @ 20
Don't expect oil to zoom back up ....
A real bottom usually takes a few months of wild volatile swings, followed by
more higher lows ....
So be patient

Caterpillar Inc. (CAT)

You don't need to be an expert chartist to see the obvious ...
Price is right on key long term support level
Now, is it oversold ??? Probably ! A value play ? Yes !
Market Cap ; 50B
Revenue ; 55B !
ROE ; 20%
We now need some help from the miners and energy sectors
Pay attention to GDX & USO
Trading plan ; wait at least a month, then start buying long term call options (small positions, then pyramid up only with more calls)

Friday, February 27, 2015

What's next for Twitter ?

What this chart tells you is quite simple. That red arrow (note that I placed it on a price range, 52-54), will soon see a major fight ; lower highs vs higher lows
1.4 B in revenue for a 31 B market cap ....
Price to sales ? 21 !
Net income ?  -577 M ....
What is QQQ doing ? Extreme overbought ...
Facebook ? Probable triple top pattern
Gut feelings for Twitter ? We do not get over that red arrow in the near future, unless we see some surprise moves prior to earning (end of April) ...
Trading plan ? Watch that gap 44-46 , short if price dips below that level 

Thursday, February 19, 2015

SP 500 vs the VIX

We basically are facing two probable scenarios ...
1) The $SPX is facing a fake move, with a high probable pull back
2) The VIX is on key support, ready to pop up
Gut feeling ? We are heading into a sideway pattern, for a while

Thursday, February 5, 2015

Oil is back !

Watch the volume ! Oil is back !!

Oil services buy signal ?

Oil services ETF (OIH), weekly chart ;
Probably the easiest chart to read ...
1) Key support level so far seem reliable
2) Huge retracement, oversold ???
3) Using this large green arrow as your stop loss if you decide to go long
Gut feelings ? Wait for light crude oil to get back above 52 to jump in

Microsoft warning signal ?

Microsoft weekly chart ; Keep things simple
Basic key trend line is "broken"
Key support level is quite clear
Gut feeling ? A sudden strong retracement dos not just bounce back up fast ...
Expecting a channel pattern, followed by a strong break out, trade the direction of the break out

Wednesday, February 4, 2015

Warning signal for Facebook ?

We now have some clear trading "signals" for Facebook ;
1) Broken up trend ; focus on that key trend only, do not attempt to draw multiple trend lines, this one connects the low to the low prior to its highest high
2) The level 70-72.5 is our key support/exit/stop level
3) Good news priced in ? Maybe ... 

Should you buy Twitter now ?

Time to buy Twitter again ?
Focus on those two trend lines (in black)
Both confirm a reliable support level ; $36-$40
Another break out above January's high should incite you to buy Twitter
Use the current "key support" level as your "last stop" if you go long now
Pyramid up only

Tuesday, February 3, 2015

How to spot a buy signal

Let's use the example using KKD (weekly) with a 50 SMA
Follow those numbers on the chart
1) Broken trend, not a "buy signal"
2) Price breaks above its 50 SMA (huge price move), risky buy signal while using
    its 50 SMA as the stop loss
3) The real safe buy signal ! That would confirm a real "big picture" pattern bullish reversal

Is light crude oil back ?

Chart on top is daily, below, hourly
The hourly chart shows us the following ;
1) Heavy support at the 44/45 level
2) Key resistance @ 49 is broken (bullish)
Daily chart shows the following ;
1) Down trend is intact
2) Potential bottom, but we need a break above that black trend to attempt to form a "A" in the ABC pattern (not there yet)
3) $USD Dollar index does not confirm ...
4) Price war ? Saudis dumping oil to sing ISIS and Iran ?
5) Are crude prices warning us of a global slow down ?
Gut feeling ; Reversal pattern is a good sign, but too early to take a clear position

Monday, February 2, 2015

Pair trading opportunity ?

Treasury Bond ETF vs Commodity ETF

Rising Dollar means mergers are back ?

Expecting increased and as the Dollar keeps on rising. Wild guess ? , , and other
Focus on option activity in big caps (energy related) 

Swiss CHF chart update

We are facing two possibilities here ;
1) The biggest "fake move" (intervention) from the SNB, or they need to intervene again
2) The $USD is way too strong .... and that intervention will not affect the next downtrend below that key blue support level
Gut feelings ; They might/could intervene again, call that pull back a pure retracement

Sunday, February 1, 2015

SP 500 key level to focus on

Focus on that key level and nothing else !
Above it, we are still ok
Below ... plan for exits, stops, heavy pull backs
Bonds are heading higher, in a possible parabolic rise ... !
Should you buy bonds at these levels ? NO !
Oil is forming a base ? No ! Not yet

Tuesday, January 20, 2015

Silver ETF huge key trigger

Silver ETF (SLV), facing a huge key buy trigger level (key resistance)
Buy he break out

Gold chart updated

Gold weekly chart update ;
Reliable support level ?
Triple bottom pattern ?
Price is clearly above its 40 weeks SMA
Use 1240 as your stop loss level

Friday, January 16, 2015


Gold ETF (GLD), weekly
1) Clear support level ?
2) Focus on these recent "fake moves"
3) New key event ? Broken trend
Conclusion ; Don't jump to conclusions, be patient, let price tell us if it will start new higher lows, and begin a new channel pattern
Time to be bullish ? No, at least not yet

Thursday, January 15, 2015

How to plan your portfolio for 2015

Happy New Year, hope you had a blast, and are ready for new resolutions
I always start the year with the very big picture, and it seems quite clear
Some sectors are way way overbought, others are way way oversold
But who am I to jump on a trend when it has not occurred yet ?
The key is to prepare yourself for an asset allocation shift (Dollar cost average).
What do I mean by a shift using a Dollar cost average ? Let's say you wish to focus on the oversold sectors ; invest 10% of your capital once a month.
So imagine focusing on Oil, Nat Gas, Gold, Silver, and most commodities ; invest 10% on an ETF focusing on commodities, or spread it equally among all commodities (agricultural included).
Do it once a month, and go back to your daily activities
Concerning Russia, you can add them as well, I strongly believe that the worst is over, and that the west will come to an agreement with them.
The future looks quite bright once again for America, just look at the Dollar ; I posted a while ago the chart of the Dollar index saying "America leads again", and it does
What about the SP 500 ? I believe it will enter a long sideway pattern, all good news are priced in, so avoid it (unless you are really good at trading those patterns)
I'll say it again and again, invest in a farm, grow something (quality) ; I often hear that coconuts are booming thanks to the demand of coconut milk ...