Wednesday, March 25, 2015

Moving to Twitter

I am moving my blog posts to Twitter
It is easier to upload, as well as easier to share what I read

Friday, March 13, 2015

The Dollar, Crude Oil, and the invisible hand

I have been mentioning several times for a while that the Almighty $USD was back !
I have also been waiting for Oil to bottom ... its has not
Crude oil is about to break a key support level, sending prices into a deep dive
The $USD will zoom higher, making it the "key safe heaven", thus sending Gold, the Euro diving again ...
Global economic growth with weak energy prices ? Its very "unusual" ...
Unless, the invisible hand is behind it ...
Perfect way to crash Iran, Russia, Venezuela ... and the Islamic State (Daesh)
We should seriously thank Saudi Arabia for their clear global vision and their deep understanding of Middle East stability ... 

Thursday, March 5, 2015

Whats wrong with Turkey

As the prime minister is speaking in New York to investors, to basically calm the situations, the Turkish ETF (TUR) took a major dive down, again ...
A country of stability, progress, growth, freedom, culture, etc .... all destroyed by one man, Erdogan.
Its a shame ...

Tuesday, March 3, 2015

Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA)

Alibaba (BABA) daily chart, the easy trading plan
1) Price is right below key support level
2) Short, using that green arrow as your stop loss
We now have rumors of "fake orders" ...

Sunday, March 1, 2015

United States Oil ETF (USO)

Oil ETF (USO), what does a bottom usually look like ?
I call this pattern a "nice" start, but thats not it ... yet ...
We now have a higher low, and a clear resistance @ 20
Don't expect oil to zoom back up ....
A real bottom usually takes a few months of wild volatile swings, followed by
more higher lows ....
So be patient

Caterpillar Inc. (CAT)

You don't need to be an expert chartist to see the obvious ...
Price is right on key long term support level
Now, is it oversold ??? Probably ! A value play ? Yes !
Market Cap ; 50B
Revenue ; 55B !
ROE ; 20%
We now need some help from the miners and energy sectors
Pay attention to GDX & USO
Trading plan ; wait at least a month, then start buying long term call options (small positions, then pyramid up only with more calls)

Friday, February 27, 2015

What's next for Twitter ?

What this chart tells you is quite simple. That red arrow (note that I placed it on a price range, 52-54), will soon see a major fight ; lower highs vs higher lows
1.4 B in revenue for a 31 B market cap ....
Price to sales ? 21 !
Net income ?  -577 M ....
What is QQQ doing ? Extreme overbought ...
Facebook ? Probable triple top pattern
Gut feelings for Twitter ? We do not get over that red arrow in the near future, unless we see some surprise moves prior to earning (end of April) ...
Trading plan ? Watch that gap 44-46 , short if price dips below that level 

Thursday, February 19, 2015

SP 500 vs the VIX

We basically are facing two probable scenarios ...
1) The $SPX is facing a fake move, with a high probable pull back
2) The VIX is on key support, ready to pop up
Gut feeling ? We are heading into a sideway pattern, for a while

Thursday, February 5, 2015

Oil is back !

Watch the volume ! Oil is back !!

Oil services buy signal ?

Oil services ETF (OIH), weekly chart ;
Probably the easiest chart to read ...
1) Key support level so far seem reliable
2) Huge retracement, oversold ???
3) Using this large green arrow as your stop loss if you decide to go long
Gut feelings ? Wait for light crude oil to get back above 52 to jump in

Microsoft warning signal ?

Microsoft weekly chart ; Keep things simple
Basic key trend line is "broken"
Key support level is quite clear
Gut feeling ? A sudden strong retracement dos not just bounce back up fast ...
Expecting a channel pattern, followed by a strong break out, trade the direction of the break out

Wednesday, February 4, 2015

Warning signal for Facebook ?

We now have some clear trading "signals" for Facebook ;
1) Broken up trend ; focus on that key trend only, do not attempt to draw multiple trend lines, this one connects the low to the low prior to its highest high
2) The level 70-72.5 is our key support/exit/stop level
3) Good news priced in ? Maybe ... 

Should you buy Twitter now ?

Time to buy Twitter again ?
Focus on those two trend lines (in black)
Both confirm a reliable support level ; $36-$40
Another break out above January's high should incite you to buy Twitter
Use the current "key support" level as your "last stop" if you go long now
Pyramid up only

Tuesday, February 3, 2015

How to spot a buy signal

Let's use the example using KKD (weekly) with a 50 SMA
Follow those numbers on the chart
1) Broken trend, not a "buy signal"
2) Price breaks above its 50 SMA (huge price move), risky buy signal while using
    its 50 SMA as the stop loss
3) The real safe buy signal ! That would confirm a real "big picture" pattern bullish reversal

Is light crude oil back ?

Chart on top is daily, below, hourly
The hourly chart shows us the following ;
1) Heavy support at the 44/45 level
2) Key resistance @ 49 is broken (bullish)
Daily chart shows the following ;
1) Down trend is intact
2) Potential bottom, but we need a break above that black trend to attempt to form a "A" in the ABC pattern (not there yet)
3) $USD Dollar index does not confirm ...
4) Price war ? Saudis dumping oil to sing ISIS and Iran ?
5) Are crude prices warning us of a global slow down ?
Gut feeling ; Reversal pattern is a good sign, but too early to take a clear position

Monday, February 2, 2015

Pair trading opportunity ?

Treasury Bond ETF vs Commodity ETF

Rising Dollar means mergers are back ?

Expecting increased and as the Dollar keeps on rising. Wild guess ? , , and other
Focus on option activity in big caps (energy related) 

Swiss CHF chart update

We are facing two possibilities here ;
1) The biggest "fake move" (intervention) from the SNB, or they need to intervene again
2) The $USD is way too strong .... and that intervention will not affect the next downtrend below that key blue support level
Gut feelings ; They might/could intervene again, call that pull back a pure retracement

Sunday, February 1, 2015

SP 500 key level to focus on

Focus on that key level and nothing else !
Above it, we are still ok
Below ... plan for exits, stops, heavy pull backs
Bonds are heading higher, in a possible parabolic rise ... !
Should you buy bonds at these levels ? NO !
Oil is forming a base ? No ! Not yet