Dollar reversal is NOT a good sign

Nice price move today in most indexes ......
Lots of high quality stocks experienced a gap up .......with low volume
But .... the $USD Dollar keeps on falling .....
Warning ; it is a "leading indicator" ..... do not ignore it.
Sell on strengh NOW ; walk away, book your profits.
Go have a drink :)
I did ; few Rosé wine ....... a place called Place Du Chatelain in Brussels
Sell on strenghs ...
What would make me change my mind ? A huge bullish reversal in the Dollar.
China’s forex reserves pass $2,000bn
Amazing reserves with a falling Dollar .......
What would you do if you where in charge of these reserves ?
1) Dump the Dollar ?
2) Buy more bonds ? (US)
3) Buy US listed companies ?
Gut feeling ? It does NOT feel right ........ I'll go painting and try to find some inspiration :)

BSE India Bombay Sensex 30 Index

BSE India Bombay Sensex 30 index ; go long again
Stop loss is @ 14,000 (was our main resistance level)
Index closed @ 14,253 (up 2.88%)

Japanese volcano

Picture of a Japanese volcano.
A friend of mine is a pilot, based in Asia ; loved it when he sends me those wild pics :)

Strong warning signal from the Dollar

What am I focusing on today ?
Light crude oil versus the $USD Dollar
One of them HAS to snap .........
Last support for the Dollar @ 79.5
Major entry for light crude oil right above 61$
We have seen several "fake moves" in the Dollar for the past two months
So expect the unexpected

Light crude oil bullish reversal ?

Light crude oil bullish reversal ?
Support channel seems to hold.
Re entry is right above the 61$ levels
Use today's lows as your stop

BSE India Bombay Sensex 30 Index

BSE India Bombay Sensex 30 index ;
Current level @ 10.30 AM (Brussels time) is 13,757
14,000 level is still our confirmed "resistance level"
Is our target the 200 days exp MA ?
Will we close that gap ?
Gut feeling ? See that scenario in blue ?
"B" level could probably be the 12,500 levels
"C" ? Around Dec 2009

Direxion Financial Bull 3X Shares (FAS)

Will sell today my position in the Direxion Financial Bull 3X Shares (FAS) today.
Using the chart of $RIFIN (Russel 1000 Financial Services)
Its a trader's market right now ; not a buy and hold & hope ......
Do not beleive the recent hype ..... this mess if far from over ....
Commercial real estate stories are poping up everywhere .....
A clean close above 650 will make me change my mind

SP 500 chart analysis

SP 500 chart analysis ;
1) Support channel did hold ....... so far .....
2) Price managed to climb right above the 50 days exp MA
3) Main resistance levels is quite clear (200 days exp MA)
Gut feeling ; see that scenario (blue chart) ; pay attention to it.
I expect to see "B" at a lower level ; so do not beleive the hype ..... yet ....
Selling FAS today, holding UNG.

Risk Analysis using the Dow Jones

Risk analysis using the monthly chart of the Dow Jones Industrial
Why should you pay attention to that monthly chart ?
Well, charts are like a thermometer ; they basically tell you when its "too hot" or "too cold".
Monthly charts are VERY important because their patterns tend to have a long term effect on a price move.
So, before looking at a potential gain, start to first consider the risk/reward ratio.
CAN the DOW CRASH ?????
Sorry to be so blunt, but sometimes it helps to "wake people up" ..........
8000 level is your real warning ; a weekly/monthly close below that level will cause some serious damage.
Focus on those company reports coming out this week .....

CAC 40 France index

Quick look at the CAC 40, France index ;
1) Support level break confirms reversal
2) Pay attention to that short trigger candle
3) Your stop is now @ 3050
4) Current price is below the psychological level of 3000
Target ? Not clear yet ..... waiting for a sell off ....
Gut feeling ?
US big caps are reporting ...... patience

British Pound chart analysis, Forex

British Pound chart analysis ;
1) Support level is quite clear
2) Notice the fake move ? Candle in light blue
3) 1.6200 is your bullish REVERSAL entry level
4) Target ? If that important support does not hold, it may feel like a huge drop

Australian Dollar lost momentum ?

Quick look at the Australian Dollar ;
Several months ago, I posted that the Australian was facing a bullish reversal.
Now what ?
We can see the following facts ;
1) Lower highs ; with one of them being a fake move
2) Present support level is quite important
3) 0.7800 is your REVERSAL signal (go bullish above it)
4) Target if this fall continues ? See next levels on the chart
Autralian Dollar linked to the commodity story ? Probably

Should you buy Dell Inc. (DELL) ?

That's probably a question a lot of traders have on their minds ;
Should you buy Dell Inc. (DELL) ?
Well, I'll tell you how I proceed before buying what should/could be considered a turn around story.
First, focus on the turn around pattern ; higher lows, break out above that trigger line, sending DELL zooming up (early March)
How come I did not buy then ? The fundamental story (with DELL) was not good .....
Is it better now ? Well, lets just say that it is "improving" ........
Improving justifies a buy signal ? NO
Now what ? I would like to see some CLEAR retracement ..... then ?
Wait for some GREAT high impact news, followed with a clear gap up on HUGE volume.

Russia ETF (RSX), and Light Crude Oil

Focusing on the Market Vectors Russia ETF (RSX) and Light Crude Oil ;
Right now, light crude is trading "BELOW" 60$
Warning ; that is a "weekly chart"
Trading plan ?
As oil keeps on going down, the RSX (Russia) is getting on my radar screen
See those multiple buy levels ?
Dream 1) hope to buy that ETF below 17$
Dream 2) hope to buy more below 16$
My allocation to that ETF will be fully invested if we "flirt" with 15$ :)
Gut feeling ? Probably facing a typical ABC pattern

US Dollar index chart

Another reversal signal for the $USD Dollar index .......
Clear resistance @ 81
Warning level again @ 80
Light crude oil is trading at 60$ ...... and the Dollar goes down ....
Gold had a huge sell off .... and the Dollar goes down .....
Gold's support at 900 ; if Gold breaks below that level, would that send the Dollar higher ?
Do we need to see crude oil below 58$ (support from mid May) to see the Dollar trend higher ?

Euro Dollar bullish reversal ?

Euro Dollar bullish reversal ?
Pay attention to that important support channel
Go long, focus on that stop loss level

Obama's Ghana Trip Linked To New U.S. Oil Strategy on African Continent, says Gold Star Resources CEO

Obama's Ghana Trip Linked To New U.S. Oil Strategy on African Continent, says Gold Star Resources CEO: "'U.S. President Barack Obama's trip to Ghana on July 10th-11th is a subtle White House oil strategy to secure another source of energy on the continent of Africa,' says Patrick Morris, Chief Executive Officer of Gold Star Resources Corp. (TSX-V; GXX; OTC Bulletin Board: GXXFF; www.goldstarresources.com). Gold Star Resources is a Vancouver-based company seeking high-impact 'onshore' oil and gas opportunities in Liberia, Cote d'Ivoire and Ghana in West Africa."

Asian indexes analysis

Thailand Set index ; closed @ 581.99 ; Uptrend intact, our main key support level is 560.
"B" level is probably @ 560 ; "A" stands right @ 630 ; "C", our long term buy trigger stands right above 630.

Karachi stock exchange 100 index ; key support is right @ 7000- 7200. ("B" level)
"A" stands right @ 7800
Uptrend intact

Shangai Stock Exchange Composite Index ; closed @ 3123 ; uptrend resumes.
Uptrend almost "too perfect"
This "long lasting uptrend" started in Nov 2008 (low around 1700)
Do not like the looks of this parabolic rise ...... still expecting a pull back, leading to a channel pattern.

Japan Tokyo Nikkei Average ; Index faced some heavy resistance at the 200 days exp MA.
"B" level taking place around the 9200 levels ?

Kospi South Korea Seoul index ; main resistance still @ 1450 ; uptrend is intact.
This tight channel (1400-1450) will end up in a break out ; gut feeling ? up.

BSE India Bombay Sensex 30 Index

Live quote on the India Bombay Sensex 30 index ; 13,761
Our new clear resistance is 14,000
Price is sitting right on its 50 days exp MA
Last support @ 13,500 ?
Go long (strong buy) right above the 14,000 levels
Get out if price closes below 13,500 (retracement could lead to "closing that gap" and test the 12,500 levels

SP 500 chart probable scenario

Quick look at the SP 500 chart ;
1) ABC pattern highly probable with "B" around the 840 levels
2) "C" is now quite clear (right above A) where the majority of investors would feel ok buying that important break out.
3) This pull back was "expected"
4) How long will it take to see "B" (gut feeling ? around 3 to 5 weeks)
Could I be wrong ? Of course ; what scenario will make me change my mind ?
1) A gap down on real bad fundamental news
2) SP 500 tries to climb back and tests again the 860 levels only to fall back hard, below the 820 levels
Gut feeling ? We are probably facing an ABC pattern ; we just need some more improved fundamentals to confirm the recent rise of the SP 500