Friday, August 29, 2014

Euro Dollar big picture

Euro Dollar big picture
We are still in a lower highs pattern. Current price action broke "the" main trend line.
Congestion in early to mid 2013 could act as a key support level. Gut feeling says the US economy is doing much better than anticipated, and the EU zone needs a Euro below 1.20 to "reset" its slowing economies (take France for example)

Wednesday, August 27, 2014

Gilead Sciences Inc. (GILD)

Call me crazy ... but that pattern is a clear parabolic rise on Gilead
See put option strike price, with exp @ Jan 2015
Taking a small position, will increase if price confirms a reversal

Krispy Kreme Doughnuts, Inc. (KKD)

Krispy Kreme weekly chart, trading plan (options)
The facts ; key support reliable, what about the current break out ?
Pay attention to the option exp (Jan 2015), then focus on those two
specific levels (calls & puts)

USD/CAD Daily chart

USD/CAD daily ; Focus on the "key level break out", followed by a probable fake move
Double top pattern?
Hourly chart ; Did we find a support @ 1.0890?
Hourly resistance now stands @ 1.0940
Not bearish, just neutral
Weekly pattern, still bullish

Tuesday, August 26, 2014

Twitter, Inc. (TWTR)

Twitter trading plan (with options)
Don't forget that this blog is my trading "diary", I urge you to do the same, online or offline,
print the chart or blog it, then have a clear plan/strategy.
What patterns do you see
Price targets with time frames
If you have been reading this blog, you know that I have been bullish on Twitter "right around its lowest price"
Have two calls (see time frames)
And One put (why ? expect the unexpected!) 

Monday, August 25, 2014

Vix warning level

Vix and the SP 500 ;
Real low levels on the Vix should send your warning signals, get ready for a pull back

Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) chart updated

Netflix chart update ;
I am focusing on these possible "fake moves", the first and second "key short trigger"
Now we need a catalyst, and a quick fall below 475

United States Steel Corp. (X), how I select a stock to trade

For those of you reading me for a while, you know I often use two key patterns ;
The ABC Pattern, and the GVN condition (Gap, Volume, and high impact News)
I look at hundreds of charts per week, searching for "long term wide patterns"
The longer the pattern, the stronger the move.
A long base channel pattern often faces a very strong break out
A very long up or down trend will often face a very hard reversal
Those "break outs", after long term patterns, are often part of a bigger pattern.
Back to US Steel (X), why do I have it on my key watch list ?
That recent break out tells me its part of a bigger move to come (not because some analysts says so), price/volume action confirms.
I now need to see X remain in a tight channel pattern and reduce volatility
Basically I am trying to buy cheaper options
I will buy a few mid & short term puts, as well as long term calls
Why am I buying puts if I am so sure that X will continue to rise higher?
Hedging ... I like to sleep well at night

Strategies to Trade Like a Professional Oil Trader

Coffee weekly prices, perfect ABC pattern ?

I'll give you a few simple tips when looking at a chart ;
1) Forget well known "indicators" first, just look at the chart
2) Past key levels do have their importance
3) Focus on simple patterns (too many voodoo patterns believers out there)
4) Plan a trade, have clear scenarios in mind (at least three)
Back to coffee weekly prices, "B" level seems to hold, confirming key break out level.
Any major coffee news out there? Any known problems?
Pattern shows a high probable break out (see "C" level)
We need a catalyst
PS : We need fundamentals! This is not a penny stock that anyone can manipulate. 

Sunday, August 24, 2014

Strong Dollar good for the Nikkei ?

Weekly USD/JPY and Japan's Nikkei index
Forex ; focus on the "key level" next week, another fake move, or break out for real ?
Catalyst needed !
Nikkei shows same situation

Friday, August 22, 2014

Chris Guillebeau on Chase Jarvis, author of $100 Startup

Baltic Dry Index and Shanghai index

The Baltic Dry Index, confirms the Shanghai index break out
BDI track shipping cost for fry bulk commodities, good indicator for the health of the global economy

Gilead Sciences Inc. (GILD)

Gilead Sciences vs the Biotech index BBH, weekly chart
The fundamentals on GILD are pretty good, what worries me at this point is the "parabolic rise" pattern. BBH (the biotech index) is not above its highest high
Is GILD facing a head and shoulder pattern? Too early to tell

Copper is back ?

Weekly and hourly chart
Price action on Long term support level (weekly) seems to confirm rebound 

Thursday, August 21, 2014

USD hourly chart, overbought?

$USD Dollar index is now overbought
Not bearish on it, but expect a pull back to re test probably the 82 levels
Most overbought ? USD/JPY
Gold, Silver, Crude Oil are now way oversold ! 

Tuesday, August 19, 2014

Pepsico, Inc. (PEP)

Pepsico (PEP) daily chart, with its 5, 50, 200 EMAs
Main trend broken
Focus on that "first warning level"
Current pattern ; double top ? Too early to tell, use $91 as your early warning signal, and its
50 EMA current level as a "short trigger"