Thursday, October 23, 2014

Pair trading, CAD and Crude Oil

Perfect pair trading ; USD/CAD versus Crude Oil
USD/CAD shows a LT triple top break out (large base means huge move?)
Light crude is oversold, but main trend still bearish

The Dollar warning ?

Saturday, October 18, 2014

Fireside Chat With Airbnb CEO Brian Chesky

Weekly radar screen

Russia's rating cut by Moody, effect on the EU exporters and banks ? Real impact on Germany ?

Bonds (US) are zooming higher, yields are going down, but you cannot refinance ? Real estate credit is dead ??

Fear of deflation is back, time for us to experience what Japan felt for two decades ? Europe is heading there for sure

Swiss citizens to vote for bigger Gold reserves ?

$USD Dollar index ; Bullish pattern intact, expecting a tight pattern above 85.50
SLV (Silver ETF) ; Oversold, buy trigger stands right above 17$, not expecting that yet, we first need a clear higher lows pattern.
GLD (Gold ETF) ; was blocked by its 50 EMA, expecting a pull back, lets now see if GLD can form higher lows, while remaining above 117.5

Apple chart update

Again, using the basic crossover (EMAs) 5,50, 200
The 5 has crossed below the 50 ; Why I did NOT short Apple ? it was acting pretty strongly !
But I do respect the sell signal, so I placed a short trigger (see chart)
With the SP being oversold at current levels, we might see Apple bouncing higher next week.
Note that this simple trading signal made me short Netflix (if you follow me on Twitter).
So why NFLX and not AAPL ??
Netflix faced a head and shoulder pattern right before the 5 EMA crossed below its 50 EMA.
Add to that the huge PE ratio at the time ....

SP 500 chart updated

My last post post concerning the SP 500 can be viewed here
You will see the initial stop loss level
Note the EMAs settings (5,50, 200). Its important that you follow a "basic" trading signal (of your choice), plus specific chart patterns ; In this case, it was clear that the $SPX faced a "fake bullish" break out and reversed.
Current situation ; We now have price right below its 200 EMA
Pay attention to the new stop loss
Gut feeling ; Will we face a "major crash" ? I doubt it, but a healthy pull back was long overdue !
Now we need the "real economy" to do some catching up

Monday, October 13, 2014

The changing value of one Dollar

Euro Dollar and the German Dax

Keep your eyes on the German Dax index and the long term chart of the Euro-Dollar
Current target for the LT euro dollar monthly is 1.20
Then ? A break below 8600 (German Dax), will send the Euro below 1.20 ?

UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil (SCO)

Probably the ETF of the week to watch, Ultrashort Crude
Warning, this ETF correspond to twice the results (see full profile here)
There is a great article that you should read on Bloomberg, that could serve as a "catalyst"

Saturday, October 11, 2014

Gold bullish divergence

Gold monthly LT chart with its MACD
Note the extreme oversold readings
Histogram is "almost" bullish (not yet)
Watch price action next week & key news events 

Crude oil long term chart

Been mentioning crude oil a lot on this blog recently, we did face several "fake moves", but in the end, the crash right after the parabolic rise did represent an eventual longer term target.
Using a 100 months SMA, we can clearly see that price has crossed below it.
Next target ? $USD 50 ?
Note that crude oil often acts as a leading indicator for the SP 500

Thursday, October 9, 2014

DUST vs GLD update

Posted the same chart on Oct 1
You can see the link here
Now what ? We have a major reversal in DUST, giving us a probable double bottom in GLD ?
Silver spot buyers, use 17.2 as your stop
Gold spot buyers, use 1215 as your stop

Tuesday, October 7, 2014

Forbidden Photos of North Korea

Market Vectors Coal ETF (KOL)

Coal ETF (KOL) weekly chart ;
Long term downtrend intact, with a possible double bottom/channel pattern ?
Trading plan ; April 2015 Expiration
Call @17 , $1
Put @16 , $O.67
Gut feeling ? Oversold, with a yield @ 2.5

Sunday, October 5, 2014

Using the MACD to spot a divergence

Using Tesla (TSLA) weekly chart
Note the clear uptrend, compared to the bearish divergence in the MACD
Focus on that short trigger (right @ its main trend line
How reliable is this indicator ? I mainly use it in spotting divergences. I rely mostly on clear price patterns, but the MACD is useful in this case

Twitter chart update

If you are trading Twitter (note that you can see all my past articles on Twitter in the "search")
Fibbonaci retracements show clear congestion levels right at key levels
Are we now heading to the next key level ? Price action seems to confirm
Should we then worry about the SP 500 recent price action ? (I am short the SP with a stop @ 1990).
If the SP moves lower next week, Twitter's latest move would probably be a "fake one"
Watch the $52 level

Saturday, October 4, 2014

More pain for Gold prices ?

Bloomberg just published an article mentioning that option traders are betting for more pain on Gold.
Check the previous article I posted on DUST and GLD
Full article here

Thursday, October 2, 2014

Options Strategies to Recover From Long Stock Losses

Forex du jour, GBP

First we blamed the vote in Scotland, now what ?
$USD Dollar index pull back did send most key currencies higher ...
What is the GBP trying to tell us ?
Watch that trigger level