Friday, November 21, 2014

Makasi trading update

QQQ (Nasdaq 100) warning ;
Makasi trading system has now a clear negative divergence
This is NOT a sell/short trigger
Focus on that warning level
Same goes for the $SPX (SP 500) ; warning level stands @ 2040
SLV & GLD are still in a bullish divergence
Crude oil now also shows a bullish divergence
Forex Bearish full signals ; $EUR $CHF $GBP
          Bearish with bullish divergence ; $JPY $CAD $AUD $NZD

Wednesday, November 19, 2014

Stay long on Japan

With all those negative news coming out of Japan, one would assume the worst ...
The Nikkei's price action (as well as the fall in the Yen), confirms that it is anticipating a HUGE stimulus package !
What could make me change my mind ? A drop below 16200

Tuesday, November 18, 2014

US Dollar index

$USD Dollar index daily chart
While most "indicators" are quite bullish, the Makasi trading system just issued
a negative divergence (based on the ETF UUP, note that I need the option data)
Bearish triggers are right below 87.30
Makasi still has a buy signal, but the negative divergence comes from this clear tight channel pattern we are now facing.
Note that this level confirms the 2010 high where the $USD spiked up and reversed !
Rules of the game ;
1) Have a clear plan
2) Focus on the risk (use stops)
3) Be ready to always change your mind (flexible, forget your ego)
4) Always ..... always expect the unexpected !!!!
5) Why ??? Your mind likes to comprehend things ; Ok, here is a probable why ... Gold & Silver bouncing up is NOT good news for the $USD !!!!

Monday, November 17, 2014

About the Makasi trading system

I received several emails asking me about this system.
First, let me be clear ; We all need a "system", a road map, a "how to" guide.
Why ? It reduces the risk of making mistakes.
This system uses daily settings, but also adds options data.
The system in itself does not matter, really, this just fits my "style of trading"
If you have been reading me for a while, you know that I mostly keep it very simple ...
Simple charts, usually using basic moving averages, basic patterns, volume, and key news events!
So why hide the settings on this one ?
Simple ... its a formula I discovered by mistake ...
It all started with some basic questions ; do some key moving averages affect options data on a specific stock or ETF?
Taking notes on each ETFs daily did really help (option activity)
Why the options market ? Call it my early warning indicator
Does it work ? We shall see ... follow the posts, we will all soon find out :-)))

UNG Gas Fund

Buy signal issued using the Makasi trading system
Stop stands @ 21.50
Pay attention to those multiple "fake moves"

Friday, November 14, 2014

Gold and Silver ETF and the Makasi system

Both SLV and GLD have a "buy" signal using the new trading system I built.
SLV stop stands @ 14.6
GLD stop stands @ 110
Warning, this is the "short term" trading signal
Will keep it updated as the Mid & LT signals are activated (or not)
Option data does confirm buy signal

SP 500, Makasi trading system

SP 500 chart with the "Makasi trading system"
Buy signal intact, but with a slight negative divergence
(Call it overbought if you wish), price entering a tight channel pattern
Main key support stands @ 2010
Option data confirms Inc. (AMZN)

Amazon chart (using the Makasi trading system)
Buy trigger activated, stop stands @ $310
Price facing its 200 SMA (main current resistance)
Buy trigger is a "mid term" not a "long term" bullish trigger
Pyramid up only (will keep you posted as system goes into
a full LT buy trigger, or not)
Current option data confirm move

Thursday, November 13, 2014

GLD using Makasi

GLD, Gold ETF daily ;
Short trigger "not activated"
No buy signals activated (speculative from oversold)
Slight bullish divergence
Key entry levels to watch  = 113
Key bearish confirmation @ 109

QQQ using the Makasi trading system

QQQ main buy signal is intact (short and long term)
Slight negative divergence
Key support/stop level to focus on is 100.5
Option data confirms current position

New trading system

Took some time off to work on a new trading system
I will eventually post entry/exit signals on several ETFs, and well known stocks.
My main focus is actually well known ETFs
System uses also options data
Will keep you posted

Thursday, November 6, 2014

Long term Euro Dollar monthly

Quick basic analysis of the LT Euro Dollar monthly chart
1) Initial broken trend was followed by wild, wide swings
2) Those wild, wide swings remained in an "lower highs" pattern
3) Initial target suggests we are heading to 1.20
4) Long term pattern suggests we are going much lower ...
Gut feelings says we are heading to the 2000-2002 lows ...
But, as usual, always expect the unexpected

Natural Gas break out

Current break out confirms earlier post

Seth Godin: How to get your ideas to spread

Wednesday, November 5, 2014

Frank Kern and Tony Robbins (get his new book!)

Step by step trading plan

In this example, I will be using SLV, the Silver ETF
Settings used are the triple EMAs (5, 50, and 200)
Some prefer to use other settings, that's fine, as long as you mix short & long term crossovers, you will be able to reduce your risk.
I'll take you step by step on how I use it (use the letters on the chart to follow me) ;
A) Price finds resistance at its 50, then pulls back
B) Price comes back, and the 5 goes above the 50 (small buy order since the 50 is below the 200)
C) We are above the 200 with lots of volatility
D) Price goes below the 200
E) Price goes below the 50 (sold!)
*Note that price then goes below "B"*
F) Our main down trend. Oversold ? Maybe. Current gap is our new resistance? Maybe.
Conclusion ; Yes, many web sites (and blogs) are still bullish on Gold & Silver) , and they have good arguments in favor, but price is always right.
Have a basic simple system, having an opinion is ok, but you need a clear road map on how you will trade any asset.
Is it ok to buy now long term calls (options) ? Silver is sitting on a current long term support (ex key resistance), 2009-10 ; That's called gambling and making a bullish prediction based on a real oversold condition ; If that is part of your "road map" for trading (typical contrarian), then I have no problem with that.