Wednesday, October 1, 2014

Shorting the SP 500

Shorting the SP 500
Focus on that stop loss level
See target on the chart

DUST versus GLD

Call this my options strangle, profitable if there is a large movement in the price of the underlying asset.
Gut feelings say a "big move" is on the way

ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil (SCO)

If you are short crude oil, use this ETF
Basically, if you watch crude prices, we are stuck in a tight channel, yesterday we again experienced a pull back. 90$ seems to be our real support level on spot price.
Now, watching SCO (ultrashort), note again the tight congestion, and price/volume action.
Price did bounce above its 50 days SMA
Not a buyer yet, crude oil is way oversold
Will change my mind if crude breaks below 90$

The future of the business landscape

Dollar index, what next ?

Dollar index, weekly chart
How high will the Dollar go ?
Strong $USD will eventually hurt US exporters, are they reacting ?
Long term pattern shows a tendency to spike up, and reverse, will it be the case again ?
Most overbought currency, while Gold & Silver are way oversold, Pair trading to focus on ?
They kept on printing the $USD, giving it less and less value, or we have it all wrong ?
Trend lines, retracement levels are quite clear, can a pull back occur in mid 2015?
I could go on and on asking myself questions ; the key here is to plan various scenarios in your mind, then look for specific catalysts that could confirm one of your scenarios.
Fact #1 ) Price is always right (put your ego on the side)
Fact #2) Expect the unexpected (be open minded, flexible)
Fact #3) Having multiple plans will help your intuition/gut feelings

Monday, September 29, 2014

The Investor Psychology Cycle

Light crude oil update

Watch light crude oil prices in the next few days, another break above the $95 will confirm a bullish break out
Current situation with the IS in Syria, Iraq, and now at the border of Turkey, could be a "catalyst". 

Saturday, September 27, 2014

Dollar Yen long term chart

Dollar Yen long term chart, major move on the way.
BOJ are "experts" in currency manipulation ...

That's actually great news for the Nikkei index who just broke a triple top pattern ! 

Giovanni de Francisci: The "unconventional" hedge fund investor

Current trading signals

AAPL ;  Bullish
EMES ;  Short
C ;  Bullish
BAC ; Bullish
XOM ; Short, stop @ 96.5
NFLX ; Short, stop @ 455
TSLA ; Short/Neutral , stop @ 255

Friday, September 26, 2014

Bullish long term Dollar cycle back?

Long term monthly $USD Dollar chart ;
1) Note the initial break out/signal, out of that main trend line, price will tend to spike up,
find a key resistance, then pull back, but will still remain in a higher lows pattern
2) What happened next was quite confusing, and had several "fake moves", but ! the $USD remained in an higher lows pattern!
3) When price comes out of a long downtrend, it usually first act "wild", then tends to form a channel pattern. That channel pattern then becomes tighter, followed by a "major break out".
4) We are now facing a key resistance level, where in the past we had some major fake moves.
Gut feelings ? We are probably facing a long term bullish uptrend.
I do expect a pull back in most global indexes, but its highly probable that the full US economy will probably rise up. 
America leads again

Eckhart Tolle in Conversation with Bradley Horowitz | Talks at Google

Thursday, September 25, 2014

Apple (AAPL) chart update

Let's see what Apple is trying to tell us ;
1) One warning price level after we got that clear main broken trend
2) Note that its the "only trend"since we do not have a new "high"
Gut feeling ? Do not expect a new high soon ... Good news already priced in

Nasdaq 100 QQQ

Nasdaq 100 QQQ daily chart
3 key items to focus on. Please not that price, yes price only should be your priority focus, not the "derivatives" of price (all indicators out there)
1) Key resistance, actually a price reversal level
2) Key support, another price reversal level
3) Higher lows pattern, keeping price above its main trend
Gut feeling ; price is forming a tight channel pattern, expect a violent move soon

Wednesday, September 24, 2014

Gold and Silver ETF, weekly

Silver & Gold ETF weekly chart update
SLV is on top, but GLD probably reflects "reality" on that particular sector, what I mean by reality is that Gold's chart is more reliable when "reading" patterns.
GLD acts like the GE of this world, and SLV often acts like an internet startup (huge volatility).
If we focus on Gold, I am expecting a bounce up from oversold levels
Note the re entry levels I have placed for both ETFs (weekly charts)
Wait for price to close the week "above" those "re entry" levels before jumping in

Monday, September 22, 2014

US Dollar vs Israel Shekel

$USD Dollar vs Israel's Shekel, daily and monthly charts
I mentioned on this blog right after the Gaza war that I was expecting a big move in the Dollar/Shekel.
On the daily chart we can clearly see a bottom, channel pattern, breaking out of its 50 days moving average and zooming up
Long term picture, we still have a monthly higher lows pattern
You can see that "target" on the monthly chart
With Gold, Silver and the Euro out of the picture right now, war on the horizon with IS, the only safe heaven right now is the $USD

Fred Wilson's interview with Michael Arrington, the two discussed how, and how not to, pitch a VC

Sunday, September 21, 2014

Borsa Istanbul 100 Index

Highly probable inverted ABC pattern in Istanbul "Borsa" 100 index
Next two weeks price action will confirm, the biggest warning will come from a dip below its weekly moving average.
The risk is rising on Turkey's border, and their passive "inaction" towards IS could send all the wrong signals to investors